WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 907 PM MDT MON APR 15 2002 WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW CLEARING THE WASATCH FRONT IN CENTRAL UTAH AND WL BE HEADING EAST INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM MDT. HAVE TOYED WITH DROPPING ALL OF THE NPW PRODUCTS...BUT WITH GRADIENTS ONLY TIGHTENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND H7 WINDS STILL FCST IN THE 50+ KT RANGE BY THE LATEST RUC...WL NEED TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTION FIRING IN CENTRAL UTAH WHICH IS WORKING NORTHEAST INTO OUR NRN ZONES. THIS WL ONLY AID IN BRINGING THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC AS LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP. WL BE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS...SNOW LEVELS AND THE CHC OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. COLTON .GJT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR UTZ023>025 AND COZ001-003. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR COZ002-004-005-006-007-008- 009-011-013-017-020 AND UTZ027-028-029. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR UTZ023 AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. co SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 129 PM MDT MON APR 15 2002 ...VERY ACTIVE WX(WINDY) PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THIS WEEK... ...MODERATE TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR POTENTIAL THIS WEEK... CURRENTLY: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION/RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ULJ DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. ANY LIGHTNING WAS CONFINED TO THE NE QUAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN NV. MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WITH WIDESPREAD W-SWLY WINDS 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45KTS. SHALLOW CU FORMING IN S CNTRL/SERN CO. TNGT: AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS NOW FCST TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY TOWARDS CO TNGT AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WRN CO BY 12Z/16 TUE. DEEP MOD WIND FLOW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TNGT WHICH COULD TEMPER THE COOLING. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS ALONG AND W OF CONTDVD LATE TNGT. WILL ADD SOME 10/20 POPS FOR FAR WRN ZONES. RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TNGT FOR WINDS...MILD TEMPS...AND POTENTIAL POOR RH RECOVERY FOR AREAS BLO THE TIMBERLINE(~10K FT MSL). IF WIND STAYS UP...COULD BE A MILD NGT ON THE PLAINS. GRIDS HAVE LOWS AROUND 60F IN SERN CO FOR TNGT. TUE-TUE NGT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CO FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT YDA. REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE W-E ORIENTED 50- 70KT 500MB JET PROGGED OVER SRN CO DURING PEAK HEATING. 700MB WINDS FCST TO BE 30-40KTS. WITH ANOTHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LYR... WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE WINDS. PLAN TO HIT THEM HARD FOR TUE-TUE EVE. ISSUING ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES TUE. MIGHT NEED A HIGH WIND WATCH...TOO. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...LOOKS PRETTY SLIM...EXCEPT FOR SWRN/CNTRL MTNS IN THE AM AND MAYBE THE AFTN FOR CNTRL MTNS. MODEL DATA/SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP "DRY" AIR MASS OVER SRN CO AFT 18Z/16 TUE. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS WRN ZONES...BUT REMOVE POPS FOR SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS. WINDS DECREASE TUE EVE. NEXT ULJ TAKES AIM ON CA. DEEP SWLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS CO. NO PRECIPITATION CHANGES. WED-WED NGT: 100-120KT ULJ RACES INTO NWRN CO BY WED AFTN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN SERN WY. ALL CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY SLIM WITH RELATIVELY DEEP "DRY" AIR MASS BEING TAPPED FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND DESERT SW. COULD NEED ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS DAY TOO. FUELS ARE STILL VERY DRY. THU: ULJ TRACK STILL REMAINS FROM PACIFIC NW TO GREAT BASIN TO CNTRL ROCKIES TO UPPER MIDWEST. SERIES OF ULJ RACE THROUGH THIS RIBBON OF AIR. STILL HAVE MID HIGH LEVEL RELATIVELY DRY SWLY FLOW. FRONT PROGGED TO SLIP INTO ERN CO THU. HOW FAR W THIS GETS IS A TOUGH CALL THIS FAR OUT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS AND IF THERE IS DEEP ENOUGH MIXING THIS COULD HALT THE FRONT. ETA EXTENSION NOT PRINTING OUT ANY PRECIPITATION IN CO. PLAN TO PULL PRECIPITATION MENTION. GIVEN THE FLOW PATTERN AND RESULTANT WX. FRI-MON: TOUGH CALL OUT HERE AS MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT TIMING/TRACK SOLUTIONS. ALL HAVE SOMETHING COMING THROUGH FRI-SAT- SUN. TIME WILL TELL. WILL MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN LEAVE OUT FOR MON. .PUB...RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222... 223...224...AND 225(MTNS/SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RVR VLYS)...TONIGHT... CURRENT-6AM. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222... 223...224...AND 225(MTNS/SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RVR VLYS)...TUESDAY... 6AM-6PM. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1115 AM EDT MON APR 15 2002 ZONES GENERALLY ON TARGET BUT A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WILL INCREASE TEMP RANGE A BIT AS SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S IN WARM SW FLOW. WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS JUST A BIT. AS FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION, BUT STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF LINGERING LL RH. SAT PICS SHOW A WEAK BNDRY ACROSS N PARTS OF THE CWA AND THE CU FIELD IS ALREADY GOING OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RUC MODEL IS DEFINITELY GOING FOR SOME SCT PCPN THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SAID AND DONE...WILL LEAVE 20 POPS GOING. HOWEVER MAY CHANGE THE WORDING TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. .JKL...NONE. HALL/GEOGERIAN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 208 PM EDT MON APR 15 2002 SHORT TERM...WV LOOP SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ETA/RUC BRING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF CU AND SOME TCU ON VIS LOOP AT TIME. LAPS ANALYSES SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 RANGE... WITH LITTLE NO CAP AT TIME. KLWX RADAR STILL CLEAR... BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WAVE MOVES INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL INCLUDE SMALL POP FOR THIS EVENING FROM DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TOMORROW LEADING TO A VERY WARM DAY. FWC/MAV MOS STILL HANGING IN THE MID 80S MANY PLACES... WHILE ETA MOS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SHOULD BE A DECENT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS... AND WILL THUS GO TOWARD WARMER ETA TEMPS. CONTINUE TO MENTION COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE BAY AS WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE 50S. MARGRAF! MID TERM...STRONG RDG ALFT H8-5...W/ H8 TEMPS 16C. SFC FLW ATTAINS MORE OF A WLY COMPONENT...SO DWNSLPG TO TAKE PLC. THESE FACTORS SHUD SUPRESS ANY PSBLTY OF SHRA/TSRA WED. ETA/CNDN GDNC REFL THIS...AVN KEEPING ITS WET BIAS. SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON TEMPS. ETA SFC TEMPS HV BEEN DOING GREAT IN THIS PTTN...AND WL FLLW. WED MAX/T MAYBE A DEG WRMR THAN TUE. FOR MINS...STAYED CLS TO A BLEND OF GDNC/DEWPTS/PERSISTENCE. S/WV DEAMPLIFIES RDG THU...MAKING TSRA MORE OF A PSBLTY. KEPT CHC POPS...DURNING DIURNAL HTG MAX. THIS WL COOL TEMPS...BUT STILL WENT ABV GDNC. XTNDD...DUE TO WET BIAS...WUD LIKE TO MINIMIZE MNTN OF POPS. HWVR...BOTH GEM/MRF BRINGS CDFNT INTO CWFA...WKNS AND ULTIMATELY STALLS IT. WK AREAS OF LOPRES TO RIDE ALNG FRNTL BNDRY. MRF CRANKING OUT QPF...GEM NOT /THRU 120 HRS AVBL/. IF IT PANS OUT...THE RIPPLES WUD JUSTIFY CHC POPS...SO WL INCL. WL SIDE W/ MEX FOR TEMPS ATTM. HTS .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1030 AM EDT MON APR 15 2002 LATE MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED BY 1045 AM. KLWX RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING A DYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF CHO. EXPECTING THIS TO BE OUT OF THE WAY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ETA/RUC INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE SKIRTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST LAPS ANALYSES SHOWING LITTLE CAP AT TIME. CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 1000... AND WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. 12Z IAD AND APG SOUNDING BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... WITH ETA BL TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S AROUND EZF. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON TEMPS. HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SPS RECENTLY ISSUED DETAILING EARLY SEASON HEAT... INCLUDING RECORD TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1045 PM EDT MON APR 15 2002 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH MIN TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WRN LAKES AND UPR MS VALLEY ON PERIPHERY OF MID/UPR LVL RDG DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS. WEAK SHRTWV LIFTING NE THROUGH CNTRL MN HAS ONLY PRODUCED BAND OF MID CLD AS 700-650 CAPPING EVIDENT ON 00Z KMPX SNDG INHIBITED CONVECTION. AT THE SFC...FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH CNTRL MN TO NEAR KIWD AND EAST TO NEAR WHITEFISH PT. STRONG CAPPING WITH CINH OVER 200 J/KG...PER 18Z ETA FCST SNDGS...HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION OVER THE WEST DESPITE STRONG LOW LVL FRONTAL BNDRY. EVEN THOUGH LOW LVL JET IS FCST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...PER SATELLITE TRENDS. VERY LARGE TEMP RANGE LINGERED WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 40F NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE WEST TO NEAR 70 OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SRN UPR MI. HAVE MADE TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT WIDER RANGE. BNDRY LYR WINDS AOA 30 KTS AND SFC WINDS AOA 10 MPH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP FOG FORMATION TO A MINIMUM EXCEPT ISOLD PATCHES OVER THE WEST NEAR COASTAL MARINE LYR. .MQT...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVY MIZ002-009 THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1145 AM EDT MON APR 15 2002 AFTERNOON CONCERNS ARE TS THREAT AND TEMPS...ALONG WITH FOG IMPACTS. OVERALL...INCREASING SW FLW ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS AS WARM AS +20C AT TOP AT 12Z. TEMPS FM UPR MI INTO IA RUNNING FM +10C TO +15C SETTING THE STAGE FOR RECORD SETTING WARMTH AS ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS WL HAMPER SUNSHINE EARLY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE IS ALONG LK SUPERIOR FM ONT OVER THE KEWEENAW AND TO MQT. THESE AREAS EXPERIENCING AN E/SE FLW OFF LAKE AND WITH SFC DWPTS 40-45F INTO ONT...DENSE FOG/STRATUS IS THE RESULT. ONLY AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD FOG WL BE OVER KEWEENAW WITH ERLY WIND. ELSEWHERE...FOG IMPACTS WL BE LOCALIZED AS GRAD FLW REMAINS SE PROHIBITING STRONG LK BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF MARINE LAYER INTO MUCH OF LK BORDERING COUNTIES. E/SE FLW WOULD FAVOR LK MI COUNTIES BUT SEEMS LIKE WARMER WATER TEMPS OVR MICHIGAN (40-45F) IS ALLOWING ONLY MIST (3-5SM) TO FORM. AS ONE COULD GATHER...EXTENT OF FOG WL HAVE TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON TEMPS AS H9-H85 TEMPS SOAR INTO MID-UPR TEENS. MIXING DRY ADIABATICALLY TO H9 GIVES INLAND TEMPS INTO MID 70S...WITH A MIX TO H85 YIELDING LWR 80S. THINK AS AFTN PROGRESSES TEMPS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY AC PRESSING IN FM MN/WI PROHIBITING MANY LOCALES FM CRACKING 80F. OTHER PRIME CONCERN THIS AFTN IS POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION AS H85 FRONT RESIDES OVR CNTRL WI WITH SFC WARM FRONT AS OF 15Z RUNNING FM MSP-VOK-MTW LINE. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY MARCH NORTH THEN BEGIN TO FEEL AFFECTS FM SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN MARINE INFLUENCE OVR FAR WRN UPR MI AND SCNTRL UPR MI. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTS WL BE DECENT AS 35-40KT LLJ ADVECTS INTO UPR MI. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO QUITE HIGH WITH RUC SHOWING H85-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM...SSI/S AS LOW AS -2...AND ELEVATED CAPE AS HIGH AS 900J/KG SPREADING INTO SW UPR MI BY 21Z. NEG FACTORS ARE VRY DRY LOW LEVELS PER GRB/MPX 12Z ROABS WITH HIGH DWPT DEPRESSIONS FM H95 THROUGH H65 AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL CAP (GRB: +8C AT H75 AND MPX: +13C AT H78). DO THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED TS ARE POSSIBLE OVR SW UPR MI ALONG FRONT AS AREA OF H85-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADS ACROSS NRN WI THROUGH 21Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH BASED ON INVERTED "V" LOOK TO MPX SOUNDING. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN ZONES AND WILL HIT IN OUTLOOK STATEMENT. .MQT...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVY MIZ002-009 THROUGH TONIGHT. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1120 AM EDT MON APR 15 2002 THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOWER AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE APX 88D SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH A WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE STRAITS. THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF A THTE RIDGE WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AREA 8C OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER...AND AROUND 5C IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER...850/500 MB AND 700/500 MB QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL BE NOTED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER RIDING CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS 850 MB DEW POINTS ACTUALLY DRYING FROM AROUND +2C OVER NORTHERN LOWER TO JUST UNDER ZERO BY THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 850 MB LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HINDER AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA DUE TO LINGERING HIGH 850 MB DEW POINTS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1030 PM CDT MON APR 15 2002 1030 PM... LRG FETCH OF SUBTRPCL MID/HI CLDS SURGING NEWD FM OLD MEX/TX WILL MOV INTO CWA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE. ALOS EXPC TO SEE LOW CLDS FORM WITH LLVL JET ACRS CNTRL/ERN KS. THESE CLDS COULD ADVECT INTO WRN PTN CWA DURG THE MRNG BEFORE LIFTING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE CNSDRBL MID/HI LVL CLDNS BY MID MRNG OVER WRN CWA...SPREADING INTO ERN CWA BY ERY AFTN. THIS IN TURN SHUD LIMIT DEGREE OF WRMG. 00Z 2M META TEMPS SUPPORTS CURRENT THINKING AND 12Z/18Z MODEL GUID. THUS HV SHAVED MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES IN NW/W CNTRL ZONES. MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO LWR TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AFTER ENTIRE 00Z DATA PACKAGE ARRIVES. MJ 320 PM... NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS PKG. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN...TEMPS AND POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CURRNTLY REACHING NR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN ACROSS CWA. FOR TOMORROW...ALL OF THE NUMERIC GUID HAS GONE A LOT COOLER. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL HAPPEN OR NOT. WHILE THE AVN/ETA TIME SECTIONS BOTH SHOW A DECK OF HIGH CLDS MOVING ACROSS CWA BY NOON...THIS SHOULD BE SOMEONE COUNTERACTED BY H8 TEMPS RISING TO 20-22C. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A CAP BY 18Z TUES...BUT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENED BY 00Z. WILL NOT PLAN ON MIXING TO H8 TO GET TEMPS IN THE 90S...BUT HAVE DEFINITELY UPPED FM GUID. AS AN ADDED BONUS...WITH WARM OVERNITE LOWS (MID TO UPPER 60S)...WONT HAVE TO RISE TOO MUCH! HAVE ALSO KEPT WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE. COULD BE HIGHER...BUT AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON MIXING. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH TSRA. A LITTLE DISAPPOINTED TO SEE THE DRYLINE/FRNT STILL AS FAR WEST WITH MAJOR CAP IN PLACE ACROSS FA. WHILE THE ETA IS JUST A BIT FASTER THAN THE AVN WITH THIS FEATURE...STILL HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT ANYTHING FIRING UP BEFORE 00Z WED. HAVE DROPPED AFTN POPS FOR ERN CWA...AND ONLY HAVE IN LATE AFTN FOR WRN CWA. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN NRN CWA...FARTHER FROM THE WARM AIR AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT/BEST CONVERGENCE/THETA E ADV/ETC. SEVERITY DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF WHEN IT GETS HERE. FRNT MOVES THRU ON TUES NITE...STALLS...AND HEADS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRNT WED. HAVE UPPED TEMPS ON WED FROM PREVIOUS PKG...AS WE BELIEVE THE FRNT WILL GET FARTHER NORTH AND MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE REALIZED. A LITTLE IFFY ON WED NITE POPS. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHCS WILL BE WITH NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRNT...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA CAPPED OFF/WARM SECTOR. HAVE KEPT POPS IN ENTIRE FA...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IN THE EXTENDED PORTION...CONCERNS STILL LIE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY...AS NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN UPR LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS/TS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURS TO FRI...WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. LVQ/LS 240A... SAT IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW BELT OF WLYS ACROSS N HALF OF CONUS...WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO PAC COAST. VORT MAX ALSO ANALYZED BY RUC OVER N TX. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH SLY GRADIENT ACROSS CWA. MOIST RETURN WELL UNDERWAY WITH NOSE OF 60F DPS REACHING I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS E KS/W MO. LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY TODAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO GREAT BASIN...ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS PLAINS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF CI EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING NWD...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO SUNDAY MAX TEMPS...DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH MAY INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...RECORD MAX OF 88 AT STJ LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY. OTHER CONCERN IS BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY EVENT SHAPING UP. SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. META H925 FLOW THIS AFTERNOON PROGGED AT 30-40KTS. WILL GO WINDY IN ZONES/GRIDS...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY FOR NOW. PAC COAST SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS REGION LATE IN THE DAY TUES...PUSHING COLD FRONT INTO NW MO AFTER 0Z. META PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS CWA. META...AND TO A LESSER EXTEND AVN BRING MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ACROSS NE KS/NW MO TUES AFTERNOON...ALLOWING DRYLINE TO PUSH E TO NEAR I-135 CORRIDOR. THIS INTRUSION WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALLOWING CAP TO WEAKEN...AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS NE KS. SBCAPE PROGGED AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS NW CWA AND 0-3KM HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL MENTION THIS IN HWO. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RUN A LITTLE LOWER TUES...DUE TO INC CLOUD COVER AND LOWER H925 TEMPS. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA TUES NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT S OF HWY 36...AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS N OF CWA...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS PERPENDICULAR TO FRONT...MINIMIZING LOW LEVEL CONV. NONETHELESS WILL HOLD ONTO 30 POPS. AS FRONT SAGS S OF CWA WED...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR DAYTIME HOURS...DUE TO LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. FRONT MOVES BACK NWD WED NIGHT...AND AVN PROGS DECENT H85 MOIST CONV ALONG BOUNDARY...SO HAVE HELD ONTO MENTION OF PRECIP WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. SEAMAN .EAX... KS...NONE MO...NONE mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 320 PM CDT MON APR 15 2002 NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS PKG. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN...TEMPS AND POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CURRNTLY REACHING NR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN ACROSS CWA. FOR TOMORROW...ALL OF THE NUMERIC GUID HAS GONE A LOT COOLER. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL HAPPEN OR NOT. WHILE THE AVN/ETA TIME SECTIONS BOTH SHOW A DECK OF HIGH CLDS MOVING ACROSS CWA BY NOON...THIS SHOULD BE SOMEONE COUNTERACTED BY H8 TEMPS RISING TO 20-22C. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A CAP BY 18Z TUES...BUT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENED BY 00Z. WILL NOT PLAN ON MIXING TO H8 TO GET TEMPS IN THE 90S...BUT HAVE DEFINITELY UPPED FM GUID. AS AN ADDED BONUS...WITH WARM OVERNITE LOWS (MID TO UPPER 60S)...WONT HAVE TO RISE TOO MUCH! HAVE ALSO KEPT WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE. COULD BE HIGHER...BUT AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON MIXING. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH TSRA. A LITTLE DISAPPOINTED TO SEE THE DRYLINE/FRNT STILL AS FAR WEST WITH MAJOR CAP IN PLACE ACROSS FA. WHILE THE ETA IS JUST A BIT FASTER THAN THE AVN WITH THIS FEATURE...STILL HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT ANYTHING FIRING UP BEFORE 00Z WED. HAVE DROPPED AFTN POPS FOR ERN CWA...AND ONLY HAVE IN LATE AFTN FOR WRN CWA. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN NRN CWA...FARTHER FROM THE WARM AIR AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT/BEST CONVERGENCE/THETA E ADV/ETC. SEVERITY DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF WHEN IT GETS HERE. FRNT MOVES THRU ON TUES NITE...STALLS...AND HEADS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRNT WED. HAVE UPPED TEMPS ON WED FROM PREVIOUS PKG...AS WE BELIEVE THE FRNT WILL GET FARTHER NORTH AND MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE REALIZED. A LITTLE IFFY ON WED NITE POPS. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHCS WILL BE WITH NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRNT...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA CAPPED OFF/WARM SECTOR. HAVE KEPT POPS IN ENTIRE FA...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IN THE EXTENDED PORTION...CONCERNS STILL LIE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY...AS NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN UPR LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS/TS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURS TO FRI...WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. LVQ/LS 240A... SAT IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW BELT OF WLYS ACROSS N HALF OF CONUS...WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO PAC COAST. VORT MAX ALSO ANALYZED BY RUC OVER N TX. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH SLY GRADIENT ACROSS CWA. MOIST RETURN WELL UNDERWAY WITH NOSE OF 60F DPS REACHING I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS E KS/W MO. LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY TODAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO GREAT BASIN...ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS PLAINS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF CI EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING NWD...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO SUNDAY MAX TEMPS...DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH MAY INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...RECORD MAX OF 88 AT STJ LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY. OTHER CONCERN IS BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY EVENT SHAPING UP. SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. META H925 FLOW THIS AFTERNOON PROGGED AT 30-40KTS. WILL GO WINDY IN ZONES/GRIDS...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY FOR NOW. PAC COAST SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS REGION LATE IN THE DAY TUES...PUSHING COLD FRONT INTO NW MO AFTER 0Z. META PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS CWA. META...AND TO A LESSER EXTEND AVN BRING MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ACROSS NE KS/NW MO TUES AFTERNOON...ALLOWING DRYLINE TO PUSH E TO NEAR I-135 CORRIDOR. THIS INTRUSION WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALLOWING CAP TO WEAKEN...AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS NE KS. SBCAPE PROGGED AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS NW CWA AND 0-3KM HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL MENTION THIS IN HWO. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RUN A LITTLE LOWER TUES...DUE TO INC CLOUD COVER AND LOWER H925 TEMPS. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA TUES NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT S OF HWY 36...AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS N OF CWA...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS PERPENDICULAR TO FRONT...MINIMIZING LOW LEVEL CONV. NONETHELESS WILL HOLD ONTO 30 POPS. AS FRONT SAGS S OF CWA WED...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR DAYTIME HOURS...DUE TO LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. FRONT MOVES BACK NWD WED NIGHT...AND AVN PROGS DECENT H85 MOIST CONV ALONG BOUNDARY...SO HAVE HELD ONTO MENTION OF PRECIP WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. SEAMAN .EAX... KS...NONE MO...NONE mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 200 PM CDT MON APR 15 2002 FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ON A BREEZY SOUTH WIND. CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MOVED INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT REGIONAL RADARS REMAIN ECHO FREE. WATER VAPOR/RUC MID LEVEL VORTICITY LOOPS SHOW SHORT WAVE OVER ARKANSAS...MOVING NORTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL YANK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...UNLESS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP PRIOR TO 330 PM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS MID LEVEL ENERGY AND THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT INITIATE STORMS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER SPC DISCUSSION...COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL COME INTO PLAY AND BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STILL...IT IS WORTH A LOW CHANCE POP. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL TAKE OUT POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AT THIS TIME AND RAISE TEMPERATURES ALSO. WITHOUT PRECIPITATION...FIND GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TOO COOL. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED: HAVE FOLLOWED THE MRF AND ADDED A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT MONDAY AS WELL. SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY IN ARKANSAS. SOME CONCERN WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THAT CAN BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. THANKS TO WFO LSX AND NDFD SITES FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON. PRELIMINARY ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. .SGF... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. SUTTON mo FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 810 PM CDT MON APR 15 2002 ITS A WAIT AND SEE GAME THIS EVENING. NO NEW 00Z DATA YET...SO ANY UPDATES WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AROUND 930 PM. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM TO THE SAY THE LEAST ON WATER VAPOR. MAIN SFC LOW IN WCNTRL WYOMING...WITH WARM FRONTAL BONDARY FROM NRN WISCONSIN TO SW MN...TO WRN NEBRASKA. PREFER SPEED OF ETA (AVN TOO FAST)...BUT A FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TRACK PERHAPS MORE TOWARD A ABR-GFK-ROX LINE. MM5/WRF MODEL VIA WEB KEEPS MAIN SFC LOW NR A BIS-MOT-YBR LINE. FOR TONIGHT...CLASSIC ELEVATED PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FROM 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC. LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 40-50KT 85H JET PUSHES ACROSS SE ND INTO WCNTRL/NW MN BY 09Z...WITH STRONG GRADIENT OF 85H MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NOSING INTO CWFA. ALL THIS POINTS TO ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRING NR OR JUST PAST 06Z. PSBL HAILERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH FREEZING LEVEL FROM MESO ETA SOUNDINGS ARE NR 11KFT. TUESDAY LOOKS BUSY. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE MORNING...THEN RE-FIRING ALONG FRONT AND JUST EAST OF LOW MID AFTN OVER ERN ND AND NW MN. INSTABILIY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE EXTREME FOR MID APRIL AND THUS SVR WORDING LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE A NIGHTMARE TUESDAY AS LOCATION OF FRONT/LOW VERY CRITICAL TO HIGH TEMPS. LIKELY A LARGE RANGE FROM 80S SOUTHEAST TO 50S/60S FAR NW CWFA. IWLL AWAIT FURTHER GUIDANCE...BUT GOING FCST LOOKS FINE AND ONLY MINOR TWEEKS NEEDED TONIGHT. NO CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT AT THIS TIME UNLESS NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS BIG CHANGES. .FGF...HWO FULL FA FOR SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND TUE. RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1007 AM EDT MON APR 15 2002 WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA AT THIS TIME AS PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING TO THE EAST. RUC INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH A LOW POP. FCSTID = 25 CAE 85 61 87 60 / 20 10 10 10 AGS 85 59 87 60 / 20 10 20 10 SSC 85 60 87 60 / 20 10 10 10 OGB 85 60 87 60 / 20 10 10 10 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. CDL sc WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1130 AM CDT MON APR 15 2002 .CURRENT...DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY BULDGING EAST OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COUTNIES. SO FELL THAT THE DRY LINE IS GOING TO MIX A LITTLE FURHTER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. .FORECAST...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA...IT APPREARS THAT THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST PARAMETERS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATTER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIANTLY. SO WILL UPDATE TO SHIFT POPS INTO EASTERN COUNTIES. 27/BRAZZELL ****304 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS**************************************** AS UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY...WEAK UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CA WILL OPEN UP...WITH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...DRYLINE TO SHARPEN OVER WEST TX AND MIX EASTWARD TO NEAR OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRYLINE SHOULD HOLD UP OR RETREAT A BIT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY... COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUSH THE DRYLINE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWFA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES EXPECTED TO BE 2000-2500 J/KG. STRONG VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATED IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT SPEED SHEAR NOT VERY STRONG. DECENT 850 MILLIBAR THETA E RIDGE ACROSS OUR CWFA...ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MEXICO...AS THIS MAY ACT TO PARTIALLY INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION INTO WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY POPS TONIGHT ACROSS OUR CWFA...AS PRESENCE OF THETA E RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL JET COULD HELP TO KEEP SOME STORMS GOING. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING EFFECTS TO HELP PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS BIG COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FENCE ABOUT WHETHER TO INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES TUESDAY WITH DRYLINE MOVING INTO THAT AREA...BUT APPEARS A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. WARM AND DRY FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH 90 FOR HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINED OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES/ INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT INTO TX. DRYLINE IS PROGGED OVER WEST TX. ANTICIPATE DRY FOR OUR CWFA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LOW/TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN US BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH OUR CWFA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING. MOISTURE AVAIALABILITY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ZONES. ABI 087/066/090/064 2300 SJT 088/065/091/064 3300 JCT 087/064/088/062 0310 .SJT...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. 19 tx EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 240 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2002 CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING... 00Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AVG PW VALUES WERE ~1.4". RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC-H70 RIDGE AXIS IS OVER N FL CWA...SFC-H70 WINDS AOB 10KTS ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIG H25 JET MAXES IN THE VICINITY...AND THE H50 VORT PATTERN SHOWS ONLY A WEAK VORT AXIS OVER THE ERN GOMEX/FL BIG BEND. POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE ASSISTENCE OF A S/WV DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A 988MB LOW OVER CENTRAL WY AT 04/15/03Z. FCST DISC... A RATHER REPETITIVE FCST IS IN THE MAKING. THE ATLC RIDGE IS PLANTED FIRMLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AND THE NRN BRANCH OF THE H25 JET MAX IS TOO FAR TO THE N TO DISLODGE IT. SRN BRANCH OF THE JET OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA MOST LIKELY WILL BE DRAWN TO THE N AS THE PAC NW S/WV DIGS S. INDEED...THE BIG THREE DO MERGE THE TWO JET BRANCHES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 18Z WED...BUT WITH A WSW/ENE ORIENTATION THAT WILL NOT DISLODGE THE ATLC RIDGE. ETA/AVN SPIN UP A SECOND STORM SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THU AS THE NRN AND SRN JET BRANCHES MERGE...AVN THEN MOVES IT N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI...DRAGGING A FRONTAL TROF ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC/TN VALLEY REGION BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THIS MAY ERODE THE ATLC RIDGE SOMEWHAT...THE H25 JET WILL CONTINUE TO POSSESS A SW/NE ORIENTATION...OPPOSITE THE NW/SE ORIENTATION NEEDED TO UPROOT THE RIDGE AND ALLOW A FROPA TO TAKE PLACE. S/SERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...SCT POPS WILL DEPEND ON DAILY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...BUT USUALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL WRN PENINSULA IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME. MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS...SE WINDS STEADY ~10KTS AT BOTH CANAVERAL BUOYS. THE 3-5FT SEAS THE BUOYS HAVE BEEN MEASURING IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DUE TO AN E/NE SWELL. THE SWELL WILL DAMPEN OUT TODAY... AND WITH THE ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINING A FIRM GRASP OVER THE FL WX PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK...EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO REMAIN WELL BLO THE NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS. PRELIM... DAB BB 082/064 082/064 083 313 MCO BB 086/066 085/065 087 423 MLB BB 082/068 082/067 084 423 81 .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW AVIATION/FIRE WX...GLITTO fl SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 312 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2002 WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A VIGOROUS UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE EAST OF IT. CONVECTION MOVED OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND INTO TEXAS NEAR UVALDE BRINGING WITH IT SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE CG LIGHTNING RATES. LOW LEVEL FOCUS IS VERY HARD TO FIND BUT THE AREA IT IS MOVING INTO IS MUCH MORE MOIST BUT SHOULD BE MORE CAPPED AND WAS THE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WARMER READINGS OF YDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/AVN BOTH ERODE THE CAP THIS MORNING OVER THE FA AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...IN TURN DEPICTING UNCAPPED SOUNDINGS WITH LI -2 TO -5...CAPE OF 1500-2500... AND WEAK LL SHEAR. RUC THROUGH 18Z HOLDS ON TO THE CAP. AVN DIDN'T INITIALIZE THE WIND FIELD AT 250 MB VERY WELL OVER MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...SO AM HESITANT TO BITE ON IT. IF NOT FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING I WOULD BE INCLINED TO LEAVE POPS AT 20 AND MENTION SHOWERS BUT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL PROBABLY CARRY 30 POPS MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. WILL CARRY SHOWERS IN THE CWF FOR THE BAYS AND NONE OFFSHORE. NO MENTION OF SEVERE...WILL LET THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM CRP INDICATE IF IT IS WARRANTED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH (BY 21Z) THE AREA STABILIZES AND PATTERN RETURNS TO ONE OF QUIET. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDS TO THE WEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO RESULTING IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE WEATHER SYSTEMS ALL WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND IN THEORY WASHED OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT...WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE MENTION OF PRECIP HERE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .HGX....NONE. 45/34 CLL CB 083/069 086/067 3-0 IAH CB 082/069 086/068 3-0 GLS EB 079/071 079/071 2-0 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1100 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2002 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVR THE ERN CONUS WITH DEEPENING TROF OVR THE W. AT THE SFC...BIG BERMUDA STYLE HI PRES OVR THE SE CONUS PUMPING WARM SWLY FLOW INTO THE GRT LKS. ENTIRE CWA IN WARM SECTOR E OF 986MB SFC LO IN SD...WITH ATTENDANT WARM FNT TO THE E ON THE NRN FLANK OF SE HI XTNDG ACRS NRN MN INTO WRN LK SUP AND THEN E THRU CNTRL LK SUP. NMRS SHRA/TSRA N OF THIS FNT ACRS ONTARIO...BUT SKIES MCLR ACRS CWA DESPITE SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE 50S AS 12Z GRB SDNG SHOWING PLENTY OF MID LVL DRY AIR (KINX 20). ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVG N INTO SRN WI...WITH SOME MID LVL MSTR. KDVN SDNG SHOWS KINX OF 27...WITH H5 TEMP DOWN TO -14C (VS -11C AT KGRB). MOST POTENT SHRTWV THIS MVRNG LIFTING NE FM THE SRN ROCKIES AND SUPPORTING SFC LO IN THE NRN PLAINS. MAIN FCST FIRST PD CONCERNS ARE MAX TEMPS AND TSRA CHCS. WITH INCRSG SSWLY FLOW TDAY AHD OF SFC LO MOVG NNE WELL TO THE W... XPCT WARM FNT TO REMAIN N OF CWA. WITH RUC SHOWING H85 FLOW VERY ACYC/DIFFLUENT...XPCT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TDAY. FCST TRAJECTORIES DRAWING FM MAX TEMPS OBSVD IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE OVR IA/SRN WI/N MO YDAY...AND XPCT THE HIEST TEMPS TDAY IN THIS RECORD RANGE. BEST CHC TO GET THESE TEMPS ARE IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS ARND IWD/ONT AND MQT. 12Z GRB SDNG INDICATES SSW 40KT WNDS AS LO 2K FT AGL...AND THESE WNDS SHUD BE STRG ENUF TO PREVENT LK BREEZE FM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. 06Z ETA INDICATES A SELY LK BREEZE ENVELOPING KEWEENAW PENINSULA TDAY...BUT STRENTH OF SSWLY FLOW WL PROBABLY LIMIT ITS SPRD INLAND TO LESS THAN FCST. AREAS DOWNWND OF LK MI WL SEE SGNFT MODIFICATION OF TEMPS...WITH READINGS REACHING 80 ONLY AT A FEW PLACES WELL INLAND. AS FOR TSRA CHCS...LACK OF LARGE SCALE BNDRY AND ACYC/DIFFLUENT FLOW AT H85 WL GREATLY LIMIT TSRA CHCS DESPITE INCRSG INSTABILITY. MAIN UPR TROF/SFC LO/ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WL REMAIN WELL W OF CWA...BUT SHRTWV MOVG INTO SRN WI FCST TO LIFT INTO THE ERN ZNS LATER THIS AFTN. THINK POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLD TSRA TO FIRE ON LIMITING STREAM LINE BNDRY OF LK MI COOLING FM MNM/WRN DELTA/WRN ALGER ZNS...WHERE SHARP SFC TEMP GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE (14Z TEMP 73 AT MNM...BUT ONLY 55 AT ESC). MODIFIED 12Z GRB SDNG FOR WORST CASE TEMP/TD 90/59 AND SOME COOLING/MOISTENING ALF ASSOCIATED WITH ARRIVAL OF WI SHRTWV YIELDS CAPE OF 2600 J/KG WITH KINX 27 AND ONLY A -5 J/KG CIN...A NEGATIVE AREA THAT COULD BE BKN BY CNVGC ALG THIS BNDRY. SINCE UPR COOLING/MOISTENING AND SFC CNVGC WL BE LESS OVR THE W WITH LK BREEZE BNDRY LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE...WL DOWNPLAY TSRA THREAT THERE AND GO WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA FOR ZNS BORDERING LK SUP VS GOING SCT COVG. HAVE DROPPED MENTION FOR IRON/DICKINSON WHERE THERE WL BE NO BNDRY TO INITIATE CNVCTN. RUC FCST SDNG FOR IWD INDICATES CNVCTIVE T OF 94 FOR TD OF 62. CALLS FM IRON/CMX COUNTIES INDICATE NMRS SML STREAMS OVR THEIR BANKS...SO WL EXPAND SML STREAM FLOOD ADVY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES. AFDMQT FM MIDNGT SHIFT FOR LATER PDS: A SVR BOW ECHO SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FA AS STRONG SLY FLOW WILL HELP TO ADVECT HIGH MOISTURE AIR INTO DLH/S CWFA...WITH VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FA BTWN 6-12Z WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS DUE TO LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE BEING SO STRONG (AROUND 40-45KT THIS EVENING)...FEEL TSTMS COULD CONTINUE OVER THE FA TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR ANY SVR WILL BE FAR WEST WHERE THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST INSTABILITY...BUT THIS EVEN SEEMS MINIMAL WITH MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO...TSTMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE FA AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DISPLACED FROM THE UPR LVL ENERGY. ONE FAVORABLE FACTOR IS THAT THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE NOSE OF A 45-55 KT LLJ WHICH SHOULD MAXIMIZE ANY MOISTURE FLUX CVRG. NONETHELESS...AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT PCPN TONIGHT AS BEST VORT ENERGY RIDES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...WITH LITTLE OR NO JET DYNAMICS OVER THE FA TO SPEAK OF. PRETTY STRONG CAA AND DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WED. BEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE AFTN WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE DESTABILIZATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. BUFKIT SUGGESTS 30-40KT GUSTS DURING THE AFTN AS H8 TEMPS LOWER TO 1-4C BY AFTN. STRONG WLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT NOTED ACROSS THE FA THROUGH 18Z...WITH IT BEING MAXIMIZED OVER THE KEWEENAW. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE SECONDARY VORT MAX THAT MOVES RIGHT OVER THE W AND NW UP AROUND 18Z. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE KEWEENAW FOR POSSIBLE ADVY TMRW. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THU. ALL MODELS SHOW RAIN ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FA BY 18Z. .MQT...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVY MIZ002-003-009-010 THROUGH THIS EVENING. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1002 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2002 UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO BUMP UP THE WIND A COUPLE CATEGORIES IN ALL ZONE GROUPINGS. WENT WINDY BUT NOT ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...RUC AND REAL-TIME DATA SUGGESTS POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN THE EAST CWA AND 13Z SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW EAST CWA IN HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL BE UPDATING HWO LATER THIS MORNING. REMOVED ALL POPS AND PRECIP MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA AS PER DRIER LOW LEVELS AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALREADY. THINKING WAS TO REDUCE CENTRAL CWA POPS AS PER FROPA/LOW CENTER PASSAGE TIMING TO BE JUST AT OR BEFORE MAX HEATING/TIMING OF MOST FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. .ABR...NONE. DORN/MOHR sd SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 955 CDT TUE APR 16 2002 UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CWFA THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CAPPING NEAR 800 MB AND RUC IS HINTING THIS WILL HOLD. HOWEVER...ETA INDICATE NO CAP AT ALL BY 18Z. INDICATIONS FROM MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS SHOWS CAP HOLDING ON WITH ONLY WEAK CONVECTION MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD SPREAD E AND NE ACROSS CWFA BY MID DAY BUT STAYING WEAK IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS WIDESPREAD. PREVIOUS REASONING AND FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR 1ST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS IN MANY AREAS DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. .HGX....NONE. CLL CB 083/069 086/067 3-0 IAH CB 082/069 086/068 3-0 GLS CB 079/071 079/071 2-0 37/46/DH -------------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A VIGOROUS UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE EAST OF IT. CONVECTION MOVED OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND INTO TEXAS NEAR UVALDE BRINGING WITH IT SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE CG LIGHTNING RATES. LOW LEVEL FOCUS IS VERY HARD TO FIND BUT THE AREA IT IS MOVING INTO IS MUCH MORE MOIST BUT SHOULD BE MORE CAPPED AND WAS THE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WARMER READINGS OF YDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/AVN BOTH ERODE THE CAP THIS MORNING OVER THE FA AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...IN TURN DEPICTING UNCAPPED SOUNDINGS WITH LI -2 TO -5...CAPE OF 1500-2500... AND WEAK LL SHEAR. RUC THROUGH 18Z HOLDS ON TO THE CAP. AVN DIDN'T INITIALIZE THE WIND FIELD AT 250 MB VERY WELL OVER MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...SO AM HESITANT TO BITE ON IT. IF NOT FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING I WOULD BE INCLINED TO LEAVE POPS AT 20 AND MENTION SHOWERS BUT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL PROBABLY CARRY 30 POPS MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. WILL CARRY SHOWERS IN THE CWF FOR THE BAYS AND NONE OFFSHORE. NO MENTION OF SEVERE...WILL LET THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM CRP INDICATE IF IT IS WARRANTED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH (BY 21Z) THE AREA STABILIZES AND PATTERN RETURNS TO ONE OF QUIET. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDS TO THE WEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO RESULTING IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE WEATHER SYSTEMS ALL WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND IN THEORY WASHED OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT...WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE MENTION OF PRECIP HERE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- tx SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 250 PM MDT TUE APR 16 2002 ...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WINDS AND HIGH FIRE DANGER IN SHORT TERM WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER WX FOR THE WEEKEND... WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR DATA HAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...WITH WINDS ON THE DECREASE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND BRISK WEST WINDS CONTINUING ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BEHIND SYSTEM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWING NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVING ONSHORE OFF THE PAC NW...WITH 120+ KT ULJ ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE OREGON COAST ATTM. TONIGHT...WEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER... AND WITH DIMISHING WINDS...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS AND GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD. WED...BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH 120+ KT JET CORE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON. 700MB PROGGED IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH BY 00Z THU WITH 500MB WINDS IN THE 60 KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. BUFKIT DATA INDICATING EASTERN PLAINS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO 600 MB...AND AM CONCERNED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGH WIND WARNING ATTM...BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE ZONES AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE NEW MODELS. WED NIGHT-FRI..PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU... WITH MAIN TROUGH STAYING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...KEEPING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. FRONTAL SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THU AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS FRI. WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...CWA STAYS IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PROGGED WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO FOUR CORNERS. SURGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ON FRIDAY...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE FLOW. IN THE EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE SAT AND SUN...WITH DRY ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FOR MON WITH MRF BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO FOR TUESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AREA WIDE...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MON AND TUE. .PUB...RED FLAG WARMING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220>225 (MTNS/SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RVR VLYS) THROUGH 11 PM. FIRE WEATHER WATCH SAME ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY. MW co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 200 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2002 RUC MODEL HAS 500MB VORT LOGE OVER CENTRAL GA WITH PVA OVER EASTERN PARTS TO SOUTH CAROLINA. NVA PUSHING INTO CWA. MODELS DEPICT THIS WELL & PUSH IT NE & WEAKEN IT. BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WELL DEPICTED...& ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER EASTERN TX & SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING NE. SOME CI TO SPREAD EAST TO CWA. VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORNING CLOUDS & FOG HAVE DISSIPATED & NOW A GOOD CU FIELD TO SET UP FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE BEGINNING ALONG THE ENTIRE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WITH MOVEMENT INLAND TO REACH AROUND STATE LINES OF AL/FL/GA. NOT EXPECTING EAST COAST FL SEA BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOO FAR WEST & DON'T EXPECT A MERGER OF WEST & EAST. BUT WITH HEATING PAST THE CONVECTION TEMP...SOME INSTABILITY...& LEFT OVER OUTFLOW AREAS FROM YESTERDAY...SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...RIDGE PATTERN AT SURFACE & ALOFT WILL HOLD A FEW MORE DAYS. TLH SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.32 INCHES & CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST 5K FEET. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEPTH OF 70+ MEAN RH IN 700MB LEVEL & BELOW THROUGH FRIDAY OVER AREA. DID SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS & DENSE FOG LAST NIGHT. WILL KEEP IN CURRENT TONIGHT PERIOD. MAV ALSO INDICATING THIS IN ITS RUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE & INSTABILITY FOR WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE NEAR AN INCH & A HALF...& AN LI OF AROUND -5.0. THIS TRANSLATES TO POP IN 20-30% RANGE. THEN FRIDAY & SATURDAY...THEY LOWER AS WELL AS MODEL POP...SO WILL GO DRY FOR THESE TWO DAYS. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS OVERALL DRY WITH AVN PRECIP WATER LOWERING TO NEAR 1 INCH & LI OF +3.4. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGE PATTERN & UPPER RIDGE APPEAR TO DOMINATE & WILL PULL OUT SMALL POP ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE DOES WEAKEN & RETROGRADE BACK TO SW SOME INTO WEEKEND. MONDAY & TUESDAY AGAIN LOOK LIKE ONLY SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH ONLY SEA BREEZE OR HEATING AFFECTS WILL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THEN NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE MID-NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FIRE WEATHER: RH REMAINS HIGH...NO HIGHLIGHTS. MARINE: WINDS & SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW. NO HEADLINES. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TLH 062 087 062 088 2323 PFN 067 081 067 081 2323 DHN 064 086 064 086 2323 ABY 062 085 062 086 2323 VLD 062 087 063 088 2323 .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. MCT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 228 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2002 INITIAL CONCERN IS WINDS. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS DROPOFF BY 00Z BUT WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CRITERIA UNTIL THEN. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THROUGH EVENING AS LAMP SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY REMAIN UP A LITTLE LONGER THAN RUC SUGGESTS. ADDITIONAL FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN IS MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. DECENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FA OVERNIGHT BY ALL OF 12Z NCEP MODEL SUITE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...EVEN DRIER ETA HAS AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIP OVER THE FA OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA. ANY PRECIP FORCED BY SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY EFFECTS OF DIMINISHING STORMS CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI FROM THE SPC RISK AREA. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO ISOLATED SE FOR TONIGHT. DOWNWARD FORCING APPEARS QUITE STRONG BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE SUGGESTED. BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A RETURN TO TEMPS APPROACHING 90F FOR THURSDAY. TWO-METER TEMPS SUGGEST SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLY IN WRN FA. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT REGION LATE THURSDAY...WILL KEEP TEMPS IN 80S. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WITH FRONT. ONCE FRONT MOVES IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD STALL AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY SETTING UP A RELATIVELY WET WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SRN ZNS. PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... SPI BB 061/083 062/087 058 10430 PIA BB 060/083 061/087 058 10430 DEC BB 062/082 063/086 060 10330 CMI BB 062/082 063/086 060 10330 MTO BB 063/082 063/086 061 10330 LWV BA 065/081 064/086 061 10230 .ILX...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CWA THIS EVENING. $$ BARKER il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 154 PM MDT TUE APR 16 2002 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND CENTRAL COLORADO AT MIDDAY WITH THE MOST ENERGETIC PORTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. CLOUD BAND HAS BEEN ENHANCING SINCE MID MORNING AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AS WELL AS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS INCLUDING THE 17Z RUC INDICATE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 00Z. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THAT FLOW. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF WYOMING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THIS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE UPPER LOW THE AVN DEVELOPS BY 12Z THURSDAY IN EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. FOR THAT REASON HAVE WENT MORE WITH THE ETA. THE ETA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS A BIT LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESS VALUES THAN THE AVN. IT IS ALSO SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THE PRECIPIATION OVER THE CWA THAN THE AVN...HOWEVER IT IS TRENDING FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN. FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THE 300 MB JET FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE 300 MB JET SAGS VERY SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THAT TIME...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THAT JET. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE JET. THE INITIAL ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVES A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS BEHIND THE CANADIAN POLAR FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON FRIDAY...ENHANCING THE SURFACE UPSLOPE WIND FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. .EXTENDED... UPPER TROF FCTS TO CONT HANGING AROUND OVER THE WRN U.S. THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE GRDLY FILLING. SHOULD BE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CWA SAT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PCPN DCRG LT SAT WITH UPSLOPE WKNG. OVERALL TROFFING CONTS OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SW FLOW OVR AREA...SO SOME LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SHLD CONT IN ASCTN WITH ANY WK WVS EJECTING NE OVR AREA FM TROF. TEMPS QUITE COOL SAT WITH SLOW MODERATION SUN-TUES. AGAIN WILL FAVOR COOLER MEX NUMBERS AS FMR LOOKS TO PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON CLIMO. .CYS... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. WEILAND/EMANUEL wy