000 FGUS74 KSJT 241934 ESFSJT TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327-353- 399-411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-250145- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 234 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGES OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU HAVE RECEIVED SOME OF THE SCATTERED MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. THE RAIN HAS PROVIDED SOME SHORT TERM RELIEF TO THESE AREAS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINED UNSYMPATHETIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNRELENTING AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. FROM AUGUST 1 THROUGH AUGUST 23...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED 0.07 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN AUGUST IS 2.05 INCHES. YEAR TO DATE...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED 7.20 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS 5.48 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. FROM AUGUST 1 THROUGH AUGUST 23...ABILENE RECEIVED 0.23 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN AUGUST IS 2.63 INCHES. YEAR TO DATE...ABILENE RECEIVED 13.68 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS 0.96 OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON AUGUST 22...SHOWS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT HOT TEMPERATURES HAS CAUSED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY TO DECLINE TO EXCEPTIONAL INTENSITIES. ELSEWHERE...THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUFFER UNTIL A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS MOISTURE AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH...MOST OF THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REPORT BELOW NORMAL FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO STEADILY DECLINE AS STREAMFLOWS DIMINISH AND AGRICULTURE AND MUNICIPAL DEMANDS ON WATER RESOURCES REMAIN AT PEAK LEVELS. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF AUGUST 23... / CURRENT CONSERVATION CURRENT % / ELEVATION CAPACITY CAPACITY CONSERVATION RESERVOIR (FT) (AC-FT) (AC-FT) CAPACITY FORT PHANTOM HILL 1628.17 70036 44110 63 LAKE STAMFORD 1413.84 51570 37980 74 HUBBARD CREEK 1170.25 318070 166500 52 HORDS CREEK LAKE 1893.03 8112 5140 63 LAKE BROWNWOOD 1419.75 131428 102290 78 E.V. SPENCE 1848.43 517272 71660 14 O.C. FISHER 1868.76 119200 9180 8 O.H. IVIE 1530.08 554340 237600 43 TWIN BUTTES (N+S) 1908.90 186200 38630 21 LAKE NASWORTHY 1870.89 10108 8320 82 FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... AS OF AUGUST 24...MOST COUNTIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COUNTY WIDE OUTDOOR BURN BANS. THE FUEL DRYNESS ACROSS THE AREA HAS REACHED EXTREMELY DRY TO CRITICALLY DRY LEVELS. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF AUGUST 23...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWS THAT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FALLS WITHIN THE 600 TO 800 RANGE. IN THIS RANGE...FIRES WILL BURN TO MINERAL SOIL. STUMPS WILL BURN TO THE END OF UNDERGROUND ROOTS AND SPOTTING WILL BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. FIRES WILL BURN THOROUGH THE NIGHT AND HEAVIER FUELS WILL ACTIVELY BURN AND CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED... EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE ELEVATED. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYZES THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS OF AUGUST 23...THE AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE RANGES FROM 1 TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE REGIONAL SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT IS FROM 40 TO 120 MM OR AROUND 1.5 TO 4.7 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX MONITORS SHORT TERM MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MAJOR CROP PRODUCING REGIONS. THE INDEX IS NOT USED FOR MONITORING EXTENDED DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ON AUGUST 19...INDICATES THAT SHORT TERM CONDITIONS ARE EXCESSIVELY DRY TO SEVERELY DRY ACROSS THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED AUGUST 22 BY THE TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100S CONTINUED THIS WEEK...A FEW AREAS RECEIVED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE STRESSED ALL CROPS RANGE AND PASTURES...WILD FIRES CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT...PRODUCERS ARE BEGINNING TO HARVEST SORGHUM... COTTON IS NOT DOING VERY WELL...HAY CROPS ARE WEAK AND IN SHORT SUPPLY...PRODUCERS ARE CULLING LIVESTOCK...SOME ARE SELLING ENTIRE HERDS...MOST REMAINING LIVESTOCK ARE BEING SUPPLEMENTARY FED...WATER SUPPLY IS IN VERY SHORT SUPPLY AND STORAGE IS BECOMING CRITICAL...PECAN CROPS ARE VERY WEAK...LANDSCAPE TREES ARE WILTING. OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL RAIN THROUGH NOVEMBER. THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER SHOWS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING BUT AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME IMPROVEMENT. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR WET OR DRY OVER THE REGION...SO THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS AND CLIMATOLOGY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK. THE CPC ALSO NOTES THAT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPLIES AT LEAST A ONE CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT MONITOR INTENSITY LEVELS BUT DOES NOT NECESSARILY IMPLY DROUGHT ELIMINATION. FOR GRAPHICS AND WEB LINKS...GO TO OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEBPAGE LOCATED AT... HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/SJT/HTML/CLIMATE/DROUGHT.HTML $$