Output used to produce Table 3.
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MSSURVIV - Survival Rate Estimation with User Specified Cell Probabilities
20-Nov-98 15:03:46 Ver 2.0 01/01/98 Page 001
PROC TITLE 'mp data months 10-15';
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.00
PROC MODEL NPAR=40 ADDCELL NAGE=1 NYRS=06 STRATA=2
NGROUPS=1 PHIMISS=-1;
COHORT=0;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0: /* REL IN 15 */;
COHORT=149;27:;83:;4:;4:;0:;0:;0:;1:;0:;0:;
COHORT=0;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0: /* REL IN 14 */;
COHORT=101;18:;59:;0:;2:;0:;0:;0:;0:;
COHORT=0;0:;0:;0:;0:;0:;0: /* REL IN 13 */;
COHORT=102;1:;66:;0:;7:;0:;0:;
COHORT=0;0:;0:;0:;0: /* REL IN 12 */;
COHORT=102;2:;68:;0:;5:;
COHORT=0;0:;0: /* REL IN 11 */;
COHORT=127;8:;84:;
COHORT= 32;
6:;14: /* CAP IN 14 */;
COHORT= 28;
4:;15: /* CAP IN 13 */;
COHORT= 3;
2:;1: /* CAP IN 12 */;
COHORT= 4;
2:;2: /* CAP IN 11 */;
COHORT= 8;
1:;4: /* CAP IN 10 */;
COHORT= 101;
9:;19: /* CAP IN 14 */;
COHORT= 102;
13:;23: /* CAP IN 13 */;
COHORT= 102;
16:;28: /* CAP IN 12 */;
COHORT= 126;
26:;25: /* CAP IN 11 */;
COHORT= 106;
5:;23: /* CAP IN 10 */;
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=MODL_Dx;
Number of parameters in model = 40
Number of parameters set equal = 16
Number of parameters fixed = 20
Number of parameters estimated = 4
Final function value 1153.3985 (Error Return = 0)
Number of significant digits 8
Number of function evaluations 128
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL MODL_DX
@@ 1 0 0 76 124.805 33 92.8226 -125.744 259.487
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 76) 124.805
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0002
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 33 Pearson Chi-square = 92.823
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -125.74360 Akaike Information Criterion = 259.48719
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL MODL_DX
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 -21 PHI(15) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
2 -22 PHI(15) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
3 3 PHI(15) ay 0.133826 0.203075E-01 0.940233E-01 0.173629
4 4 PHI(15) aa 0.677601 0.195186E-01 0.639344 0.715857
5 -23 PHI(14) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
6 -24 PHI(14) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
7 3 PHI(14) ay 0.133826 0.203075E-01 0.940233E-01 0.173629
8 4 PHI(14) aa 0.677601 0.195186E-01 0.639344 0.715857
9 -25 PHI(13) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
10 -26 PHI(13) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
11 3 PHI(13) ay 0.133826 0.203075E-01 0.940233E-01 0.173629
12 4 PHI(13) aa 0.677601 0.195186E-01 0.639344 0.715857
13 -27 PHI(12) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
14 -28 PHI(12) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
15 3 PHI(12) ay 0.133826 0.203075E-01 0.940233E-01 0.173629
16 4 PHI(12) aa 0.677601 0.195186E-01 0.639344 0.715857
17 -29 PHI(11) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
18 -30 PHI(11) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
19 3 PHI(11) ay 0.133826 0.203075E-01 0.940233E-01 0.173629
20 4 PHI(11) aa 0.677601 0.195186E-01 0.639344 0.715857
21 1 P(14) y 0.734619 0.644385E-01 0.608319 0.860918
22 2 P(14) a 0.944048 0.701668E-02 0.930296 0.957801
23 1 P(13) y 0.734619 0.644385E-01 0.608319 0.860918
24 2 P(13) a 0.944048 0.701668E-02 0.930296 0.957801
25 1 P(12) y 0.734619 0.644385E-01 0.608319 0.860918
26 2 P(12) a 0.944048 0.701668E-02 0.930296 0.957801
27 1 P(11) y 0.734619 0.644385E-01 0.608319 0.860918
28 2 P(11) a 0.944048 0.701668E-02 0.930296 0.957801
29 1 P(10) y 0.734619 0.644385E-01 0.608319 0.860918
30 2 P(10) a 0.944048 0.701668E-02 0.930296 0.957801
31 -31 XP2(14) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
32 -32 XP2(14) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
33 -33 XP2(13) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
34 -34 XP2(13) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
35 -35 XP2(12) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
36 -36 XP2(12) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
37 -37 XP2(11) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
38 -38 XP2(11) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
39 -39 XP2(10) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
40 -40 XP2(10) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.06
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64001 NAME=MODL_D;
Number of parameters in model = 40
Number of parameters set equal = 24
Number of parameters fixed = 10
Number of parameters estimated = 6
Final function value 1143.1848 (Error Return = 0)
Number of significant digits 8
Number of function evaluations 163
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL MODL_D
@@ 2 0 0 74 104.378 30 76.2948 -115.530 243.060
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 74) 104.378
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0101
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 30 Pearson Chi-square = 76.295
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0000
Log-likelihood = -115.52993 Akaike Information Criterion = 243.05986
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL MODL_D
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 -31 PHI(15) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
2 -32 PHI(15) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
3 3 PHI(15) ay 0.127844 0.186703E-01 0.912501E-01 0.164438
4 4 PHI(15) aa 0.677171 0.195152E-01 0.638921 0.715421
5 -33 PHI(14) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
6 -34 PHI(14) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
7 3 PHI(14) ay 0.127844 0.186703E-01 0.912501E-01 0.164438
8 4 PHI(14) aa 0.677171 0.195152E-01 0.638921 0.715421
9 -35 PHI(13) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
10 -36 PHI(13) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
11 3 PHI(13) ay 0.127844 0.186703E-01 0.912501E-01 0.164438
12 4 PHI(13) aa 0.677171 0.195152E-01 0.638921 0.715421
13 -37 PHI(12) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
14 -38 PHI(12) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
15 3 PHI(12) ay 0.127844 0.186703E-01 0.912501E-01 0.164438
16 4 PHI(12) aa 0.677171 0.195152E-01 0.638921 0.715421
17 -39 PHI(11) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
18 -40 PHI(11) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
19 3 PHI(11) ay 0.127844 0.186703E-01 0.912501E-01 0.164438
20 4 PHI(11) aa 0.677171 0.195152E-01 0.638921 0.715421
21 5 P(14) y 0.769231 0.594937E-01 0.652623 0.885838
22 6 P(14) a 0.946324 0.636206E-02 0.933854 0.958794
23 5 P(13) y 0.769231 0.594937E-01 0.652623 0.885838
24 6 P(13) a 0.946324 0.636206E-02 0.933854 0.958794
25 5 P(12) y 0.769231 0.594937E-01 0.652623 0.885838
26 6 P(12) a 0.946324 0.636206E-02 0.933854 0.958794
27 5 P(11) y 0.769231 0.594937E-01 0.652623 0.885838
28 6 P(11) a 0.946324 0.636206E-02 0.933854 0.958794
29 5 P(10) y 0.769231 0.594937E-01 0.652623 0.885838
30 6 P(10) a 0.946324 0.636206E-02 0.933854 0.958794
31 1 XP2(14) y 0.615385 0.761053E-01 0.466218 0.764551
32 2 XP2(14) a 0.806734 0.178191E-01 0.771809 0.841659
33 1 XP2(13) y 0.615385 0.761053E-01 0.466218 0.764551
34 2 XP2(13) a 0.806734 0.178191E-01 0.771809 0.841659
35 1 XP2(12) y 0.615385 0.761053E-01 0.466218 0.764551
36 2 XP2(12) a 0.806734 0.178191E-01 0.771809 0.841659
37 1 XP2(11) y 0.615385 0.761053E-01 0.466218 0.764551
38 2 XP2(11) a 0.806734 0.178191E-01 0.771809 0.841659
39 1 XP2(10) y 0.615385 0.761053E-01 0.466218 0.764551
40 2 XP2(10) a 0.806734 0.178191E-01 0.771809 0.841659
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.08
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=MODL_Bx;
Number of parameters in model = 40
Number of parameters set equal = 8
Number of parameters fixed = 20
Number of parameters estimated = 12
Final function value 1125.8100 (Error Return = 0)
Number of significant digits 6
Number of function evaluations 379
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL MODL_BX
@@ 3 0 0 68 69.6285 23 53.0266 -98.1551 220.310
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 68) 69.629
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.4279
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 23 Pearson Chi-square = 53.027
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0004
Log-likelihood = -98.155144 Akaike Information Criterion = 220.31029
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL MODL_BX
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 -21 PHI(15) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
2 -22 PHI(15) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
3 3 PHI(15) ay 0.199250 0.298945E-01 0.140657 0.257843
4 4 PHI(15) aa 0.673089 0.193887E-01 0.635088 0.711091
5 -23 PHI(14) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
6 -24 PHI(14) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
7 3 PHI(14) ay 0.199250 0.298945E-01 0.140657 0.257843
8 4 PHI(14) aa 0.673089 0.193887E-01 0.635088 0.711091
9 -25 PHI(13) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
10 -26 PHI(13) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
11 3 PHI(13) ay 0.199250 0.298945E-01 0.140657 0.257843
12 4 PHI(13) aa 0.673089 0.193887E-01 0.635088 0.711091
13 -27 PHI(12) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
14 -28 PHI(12) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
15 3 PHI(12) ay 0.199250 0.298945E-01 0.140657 0.257843
16 4 PHI(12) aa 0.673089 0.193887E-01 0.635088 0.711091
17 -29 PHI(11) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
18 -30 PHI(11) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
19 3 PHI(11) ay 0.199250 0.298945E-01 0.140657 0.257843
20 4 PHI(11) aa 0.673089 0.193887E-01 0.635088 0.711091
21 1 P(14) y 0.792864 0.776831E-01 0.640605 0.945123
22 2 P(14) a 0.950155 0.138550E-01 0.922999 0.977311
23 5 P(13) y 0.771062 0.863321E-01 0.601851 0.940273
24 6 P(13) a 0.948868 0.151004E-01 0.919271 0.978464
25 7 P(12) y 0.547570E-01 0.498554E-01 -.429596E-01 0.152474
26 8 P(12) a 0.906388 0.222883E-01 0.862703 0.950073
27 9 P(11) y 0.104362 0.671139E-01 -.271814E-01 0.235905
28 10 P(11) a 0.932773 0.164633E-01 0.900504 0.965041
29 11 P(10) y 0.399879 0.112676 0.179034 0.620724
30 12 P(10) a 0.976749 0.965480E-02 0.957826 0.995673
31 -31 XP2(14) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
32 -32 XP2(14) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
33 -33 XP2(13) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
34 -34 XP2(13) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
35 -35 XP2(12) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
36 -36 XP2(12) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
37 -37 XP2(11) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
38 -38 XP2(11) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
39 -39 XP2(10) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
40 -40 XP2(10) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.13
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=MODL_B;
Number of parameters in model = 40
Number of parameters set equal = 8
Number of parameters fixed = 10
Number of parameters estimated = 22
Final function value 1109.4706 (Error Return = 0)
Number of significant digits 7
Number of function evaluations 978
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL MODL_B
@@ 4 0 0 58 36.9497 13 22.3595 -81.8157 207.631
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 58) 36.950
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.9859
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 13 Pearson Chi-square = 22.360
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0500
Log-likelihood = -81.815736 Akaike Information Criterion = 207.63147
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL MODL_B
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 -31 PHI(15) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
2 -32 PHI(15) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
3 3 PHI(15) ay 0.189058 0.271610E-01 0.135822 0.242293
4 4 PHI(15) aa 0.671572 0.193295E-01 0.633686 0.709458
5 -33 PHI(14) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
6 -34 PHI(14) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
7 3 PHI(14) ay 0.189058 0.271610E-01 0.135822 0.242293
8 4 PHI(14) aa 0.671572 0.193295E-01 0.633686 0.709458
9 -35 PHI(13) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
10 -36 PHI(13) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
11 3 PHI(13) ay 0.189058 0.271610E-01 0.135822 0.242293
12 4 PHI(13) aa 0.671572 0.193295E-01 0.633686 0.709458
13 -37 PHI(12) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
14 -38 PHI(12) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
15 3 PHI(12) ay 0.189058 0.271610E-01 0.135822 0.242293
16 4 PHI(12) aa 0.671572 0.193295E-01 0.633686 0.709458
17 -39 PHI(11) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
18 -40 PHI(11) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
19 3 PHI(11) ay 0.189058 0.271610E-01 0.135822 0.242293
20 4 PHI(11) aa 0.671572 0.193295E-01 0.633686 0.709458
21 13 P(14) y 0.825747 0.699176E-01 0.688709 0.962786
22 14 P(14) a 0.952559 0.125585E-01 0.927944 0.977173
23 15 P(13) y 0.830253 0.780701E-01 0.677236 0.983271
24 16 P(13) a 0.951578 0.135269E-01 0.925065 0.978091
25 17 P(12) y 0.581026E-01 0.527466E-01 -.452807E-01 0.161486
26 18 P(12) a 0.909901 0.208649E-01 0.869006 0.950796
27 19 P(11) y 0.110223 0.705422E-01 -.280398E-01 0.248486
28 20 P(11) a 0.932890 0.154636E-01 0.902581 0.963199
29 21 P(10) y 0.420705 0.116688 0.191997 0.649412
30 22 P(10) a 0.986122 0.573645E-02 0.974878 0.997365
31 1 XP2(14) y 0.673514 0.102548 0.472519 0.874508
32 2 XP2(14) a 0.822344 0.380790E-01 0.747709 0.896979
33 5 XP2(13) y 0.721384 0.111003 0.503819 0.938949
34 6 XP2(13) a 0.821306 0.395915E-01 0.743706 0.898905
35 7 XP2(12) y 0.196243E-01 0.241382E-01 -.276866E-01 0.669351E-01
36 8 XP2(12) a 0.747489 0.450089E-01 0.659272 0.835707
37 9 XP2(11) y 0.567200E-01 0.465202E-01 -.344597E-01 0.147900
38 10 XP2(11) a 0.737231 0.405992E-01 0.657657 0.816806
39 11 XP2(10) y 0.300574 0.113402 0.783059E-01 0.522841
40 12 XP2(10) a 0.939182 0.251702E-01 0.889849 0.988516
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.29
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=MODL_Ax;
Number of parameters in model = 40
Number of parameters set equal = 2
Number of parameters fixed = 20
Number of parameters estimated = 18
Final function value 1121.8814 (Error Return = 0)
Number of significant digits 7
Number of function evaluations 761
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL MODL_AX
@@ 5 0 0 62 61.7712 16 46.7688 -94.2265 224.453
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 62) 61.771
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.4903
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 16 Pearson Chi-square = 46.769
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0001
Log-likelihood = -94.226489 Akaike Information Criterion = 224.45298
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL MODL_AX
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 -21 PHI(15) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
2 -22 PHI(15) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
3 3 PHI(15) ay 0.228398 0.464850E-01 0.137287 0.319508
4 4 PHI(15) aa 0.623835 0.402914E-01 0.544864 0.702806
5 -23 PHI(14) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
6 -24 PHI(14) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
7 7 PHI(14) ay 0.269298 0.652644E-01 0.141380 0.397216
8 8 PHI(14) aa 0.602932 0.488654E-01 0.507156 0.698708
9 -25 PHI(13) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
10 -26 PHI(13) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
11 11 PHI(13) ay 0.169978E-01 0.179707E-01 -.182248E-01 0.522204E-01
12 12 PHI(13) aa 0.735581 0.458374E-01 0.645740 0.825423
13 -27 PHI(12) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
14 -28 PHI(12) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
15 14 PHI(12) ay 0.321730E-01 0.253908E-01 -.175930E-01 0.819389E-01
16 15 PHI(12) aa 0.737796 0.449360E-01 0.649722 0.825871
17 -29 PHI(11) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
18 -30 PHI(11) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
19 17 PHI(11) ay 0.107820 0.526395E-01 0.464658E-02 0.210993
20 18 PHI(11) aa 0.682185 0.430121E-01 0.597881 0.766489
21 1 P(14) y 0.793388 0.835789E-01 0.629574 0.957203
22 2 P(14) a 0.950521 0.140558E-01 0.922971 0.978070
23 5 P(13) y 0.736304 0.105033 0.530440 0.942168
24 6 P(13) a 0.950906 0.148032E-01 0.921892 0.979921
25 9 P(12) y 0.555556 0.192332 0.178584 0.932527
26 10 P(12) a 0.905781 0.219874E-01 0.862686 0.948877
27 9 P(11) y 0.555556 0.192332 0.178584 0.932527
28 13 P(11) a 0.931145 0.166033E-01 0.898602 0.963687
29 9 P(10) y 0.555556 0.192332 0.178584 0.932527
30 16 P(10) a 0.976843 0.972375E-02 0.957785 0.995902
31 -31 XP2(14) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
32 -32 XP2(14) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
33 -33 XP2(13) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
34 -34 XP2(13) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
35 -35 XP2(12) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
36 -36 XP2(12) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
37 -37 XP2(11) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
38 -38 XP2(11) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
39 -39 XP2(10) y -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
40 -40 XP2(10) a -1.00000 0.000000E+00 -1.00000 -1.00000
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.20
PROC ESTIMATE NOVAR NSIG=6 MAXFN=64000 NAME=MODL_A;
Number of parameters in model = 40
Number of parameters set equal = 4
Number of parameters fixed = 10
Number of parameters estimated = 26
Final function value 1106.2671 (Error Return = 0)
Number of significant digits 6
Number of function evaluations 1289
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR MODEL MODL_A
@@ 6 6 0 0 54 30.5427 8 18.8476 -78.6123 209.225
G Total (Degrees of freedom = 54) 30.543
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.9958
With pooling, Degrees of freedom = 8 Pearson Chi-square = 18.848
Pr(Larger Chi-square) = 0.0157
Log-likelihood = -78.612256 Akaike Information Criterion = 209.22451
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR MODEL MODL_A
95% Confidence Interval
I Parameter S(I) Standard Error Lower Upper
--- -------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
1 -31 PHI(15) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
2 -32 PHI(15) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
3 3 PHI(15) ay 0.220847 0.435275E-01 0.135533 0.306161
4 4 PHI(15) aa 0.623528 0.402615E-01 0.544615 0.702440
5 -33 PHI(14) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
6 -34 PHI(14) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
7 7 PHI(14) ay 0.245597 0.555770E-01 0.136666 0.354528
8 8 PHI(14) aa 0.602724 0.488368E-01 0.507004 0.698444
9 -35 PHI(13) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
10 -36 PHI(13) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
11 11 PHI(13) ay 0.167960E-01 0.176922E-01 -.178807E-01 0.514727E-01
12 12 PHI(13) aa 0.735212 0.457428E-01 0.645556 0.824868
13 -37 PHI(12) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
14 -38 PHI(12) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
15 14 PHI(12) ay 0.317975E-01 0.249242E-01 -.170539E-01 0.806489E-01
16 15 PHI(12) aa 0.738297 0.448992E-01 0.650294 0.826299
17 -39 PHI(11) yy 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
18 -40 PHI(11) ya 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00 0.000000E+00
19 17 PHI(11) ay 0.106489 0.509561E-01 0.661526E-02 0.206363
20 18 PHI(11) aa 0.675659 0.422428E-01 0.592863 0.758454
21 19 P(14) y 0.820513 0.757373E-01 0.672068 0.968958
22 20 P(14) a 0.952802 0.127208E-01 0.927870 0.977735
23 21 P(13) y 0.807692 0.912765E-01 0.628790 0.986594
24 22 P(13) a 0.953590 0.131904E-01 0.927737 0.979444
25 23 P(12) y 0.562500 0.186950 0.196079 0.928921
26 24 P(12) a 0.909312 0.206062E-01 0.868924 0.949700
27 23 P(11) y 0.562500 0.186950 0.196079 0.928921
28 25 P(11) a 0.931162 0.156464E-01 0.900495 0.961829
29 23 P(10) y 0.562500 0.186950 0.196079 0.928921
30 26 P(10) a 0.986282 0.570410E-02 0.975102 0.997462
31 1 XP2(14) y 0.666667 0.108626 0.453759 0.879574
32 2 XP2(14) a 0.822918 0.384278E-01 0.747600 0.898237
33 5 XP2(13) y 0.692308 0.123479 0.450289 0.934327
34 6 XP2(13) a 0.826036 0.393031E-01 0.749002 0.903070
35 9 XP2(12) y 0.375000 0.168814 0.441245E-01 0.705875
36 10 XP2(12) a 0.746465 0.445613E-01 0.659124 0.833805
37 9 XP2(11) y 0.375000 0.168814 0.441245E-01 0.705875
38 13 XP2(11) a 0.733935 0.406295E-01 0.654301 0.813569
39 9 XP2(10) y 0.375000 0.168814 0.441245E-01 0.705875
40 16 XP2(10) a 0.939759 0.251170E-01 0.890530 0.988988
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.38
PROC TEST;
Modified AIC calculations: (see "Model Selection and Inference:
A Practical Information Theoretic Approach" by K. P. Burnham
and David R. Anderson, 1998)
Most General Model:MODL_A
n= 1193 c= 1.00000000000000
Model K AIC AICc QAIC QAICc
1 4 259.487 259.521 259.487 259.521
2 6 243.060 243.131 243.060 243.131
3 12 220.310 220.575 220.310 220.575
4 22 207.631 208.496 207.631 208.496
5 18 224.453 225.036 224.453 225.036
6 26 209.225 210.429 209.225 210.429
Log-
Submodel likelihood NDF AIC G-O-F AICC QAIC QAICC
--------- ---------- --- --------- ------ ------- ------- -------
4 MODL_B -81.82 58 207.63 0.9859 208.5 207.6 208.5
6 MODL_A -78.61 54 209.22 0.9958 210.4 209.2 210.4
3 MODL_BX -98.16 68 220.31 0.4279 220.6 220.3 220.6
5 MODL_AX -94.23 62 224.45 0.4903 225.0 224.5 225.0
2 MODL_D -115.5 74 243.06 0.0101 243.1 243.1 243.1
1 MODL_DX -125.7 76 259.49 0.0002 259.5 259.5 259.5
Likelihood Ratio Tests Between Models
General Reduced Degrees Pr(Larger
Submodel Submodel Chi-square Freedom Chi-square)
---------- ---------- ---------- ------- -----------
MODL_A MODL_B 6.407 4 0.1707
MODL_B MODL_BX 32.679 10 0.0003
MODL_B MODL_AX 24.822 4 0.0001
MODL_B MODL_D 67.428 16 0.0000
MODL_B MODL_DX 87.856 18 0.0000
MODL_A MODL_BX 39.086 14 0.0004
MODL_A MODL_AX 31.228 8 0.0001
MODL_A MODL_D 73.835 20 0.0000
MODL_A MODL_DX 94.263 22 0.0000
MODL_AX MODL_BX 7.857 6 0.2487
MODL_BX MODL_D 34.750 6 0.0000
MODL_BX MODL_DX 55.177 8 0.0000
MODL_AX MODL_D 42.607 12 0.0000
MODL_AX MODL_DX 63.034 14 0.0000
MODL_D MODL_DX 20.427 2 0.0000
* * WARNING * * Sequence of models reinitialized to zero.
CPU time in seconds for last procedure was 0.02
PROC STOP;
CPU time in minutes for this job was 0.02
E X E C U T I O N S U C C E S S F U L