####018004314#### FXUS63 KSGF 101150 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 550 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS...BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWING TWO LOW CIRCULATIONS MOVING INTO UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA RESPECTIVELY. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME WAVING IN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. SO DO BELIEVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MID 50 DEW POINTS ACROSS TEXAS INTO MOST OF ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE DAY TO REMAIN DRY AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. BY MID EVENING...GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS MAIN LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS LINE. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN DEW POINTS TODAY AS WRF BRINGS TDS NEAR 60 INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHILE GFS HOLDS MID/UPPER 40S MOST OF THE DAY. CONSIDERING MID 50 TDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/NORTHEAST TEXAS...DECIDED TO TREND MORE TOWARDS THE WRF SOLUTION. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY GIVE US PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH WRF CAPES ANYWHERE FROM 600 TO 800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAVORABLE 300-400 0-3KM HELICITIES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. CERTAINLY THINK WITH ABOVE SETUP...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HAZARDS IN THIS MORNINGS HWO. ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT AND HPC FORECASTS AGREE ON HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN BY MID EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE A WIDESPREAD 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL PRECIP WILL OCCUR. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN SATURATED SOILS AND DORMANT VEGETATION...IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF ANYWHERE. WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT WATCH. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY BEFORE PRECIP FINALLY ENDS. ECMWF KEEPS QPFS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...SO WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH EXTRA FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING...BUT GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO LONG AND WE ARE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. CLAYCOMB && .AVIATION... GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT THE JOPLIN THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING MAINLY AFTER 00Z. SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES. FOSTER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. KS...NONE. && $$ ####018012365#### FXUS61 KBUF 101151 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 651 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL GET AN EARLY TASTE OF SPRING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL CATCH A FEW SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A STRONGER STORM WILL LIFT UP INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PASS EAST ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT TRAILING THE STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WHILE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A 50-70 MILE WIDE RIBBON OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT 11Z. THIS RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT AND A WELL DEFINED TONGUE OF 850-700MB THETA-E. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN TAKING THIS TONGUE OF THETA-E ACROSS THE CWA QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS APPROACHES...THETA-E ADVECTION AND IMPLIED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WELL DEFINED REGION OF LIFT. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WEAKENING WITH EASTERN EXTENT...SO EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A START TIME RANGING FROM AROUND 12Z AT KBUF TO 14Z KROC AND 17Z KART GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO. THE RAIN WILL NOT LAST LONG...PROBABLY ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS MICHIGAN HAVE SHOWN ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF QPF...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND IN ASSOCIATED FORCING. WILL GO FOR A TENTH OR A LITTLE MORE ACROSS WESTERN NY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN A TENTH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. NOT ENOUGH QPF TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT ALL. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP...WITH TEMPS WARMING NICELY BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE RAIN STARTS THIS MORNING. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTH COUNTRY. A MUCH COLDER START MAY ALLOW SOME COLD AIR TO HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY. MAY SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FROM THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND FAR TOO BRIEF FOR ANY ADVISORY. FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL CLIMB NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CWA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NY...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER WITH A SSW FLOW OFF THE LAKE ERIE ICE PACK. TONIGHT THE CWA WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDING SOME DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND NO OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PRECIP. TOUGH CALL ON CLOUD COVER...WE MAY END UP SEEING STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BENEATH THE STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH WARM TEMPS OVER COLD GROUND AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS...ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH A SSW BREEZE AND CONTINUED WAA. MOST PLACES WILL STAY WELL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PLENTY OF ACTION UPCOMING DURING THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING NEAR RECORD WARMTH...FLOOD AND WIND POTENTIAL...AND AN ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER WITH SOME DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL. WE WILL START WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY AND VERY MILD WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM M40S TO L50S...SOME 30 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM! 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 7-8C RANGE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY WELL MIXED ALTHOUGH IT MAY DECOUPLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY WITH A SHOWER THREAT. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING NEAR ST LOUIS AND WILL MOVE INTO SRN MICH BY 00Z AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MIDNIGHT WED NT. A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD AT LEAST REACH BUF AND ROC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +10C AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE SUPPORTING 60 OR EVEN BETTER IF WE GET ANY SUN AT ALL. RECORDS FOR 2/11 ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH THOUGH AND APPEAR OUT OF REACH (BUF 68, ROC 70). MUCH OF WESTERN NY'S LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE MAINLY SNOW FREE NOW...BUT PLENTY OF PACK AND SWE EXISTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. ONE CONSOLATION IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE QPF...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THERE HAS BEEN A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...BUT SITUATION IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. OUR MOST EXTREME WIND EVENTS IN WESTERN NY OCCUR WHEN LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ON A PATH FROM SE MICH ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...BUT BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW LOW REACHING ITS DEEPEST OVER SE MICH...BUT DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC AND LABRADOR WILL BE CREATING A STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...SO LOW WILL TEND TO TRACK DIRECTLY EAST (NOT NORTHEAST) AND EVENTUALLY TEND TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST. THIS TRACK WOULD BE OVER LK ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z THURSDAY. THIS STILL WILL PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE...BUT MORE LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA THAN WARNING. NOW...00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS STILL MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS AS IT TRACKS THE LOW ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...ABOVE TORONTO WHILE STILL DEEPENING IT SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN THIS MODEL IS 5-10 KTS WEAKER WITH ITS 850/925 MB WIND FIELDS (MAX 60-65 KTS RATHER THAN 70+) THAN IN ITS PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. AND...THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH MORE OF A SPREAD IN LOCATION OF SFC LOW AT 12Z THURS...FROM ABOUT ROCHESTER TO NORTH OF TORONTO WITH MEAN ALONG NORTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEARBY OFFICES...WILL NOT HOIST ANY WIND WATCHES WITH THIS PACKAGE AS THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS STAGE. I AM CONFIDENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED ADVISORIES...AS LONG AS SFC LOW PASSES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE WHICH IT ALMOST SURELY WILL. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS AND POPS AS PREVIOUS...WITH READINGS NUDGING 60 LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT...AND UPPING POPS TO CATEG FOR A BRIEF TIME IN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO MENTION SLGT CHC THUNDER IN WEST ALTHOUGH MODELS HALT BEST LI'S AND CAPES AT SRN TIER BORDER...FEEL A BIT OF RISK WILL SNEAK UP THE LK ERIE SHORE...ESP IF GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT. ONE OTHER CAVEAT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK RIGHT OVER LK ONTARIO...FAR NORTHERN JEFF/LEWIS MAY NOT GET INTO THE WARM AIR...FOR NOW WILL TONE DOWN TEMPS A BIT THERE BUT TEMPS AND WIND DIRECTION THERE ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. IN ANY CASE...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE 30S. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON A BULLSEYE OF PRECIP IN WRAPAROUND/UPSLOPE NEAR BUF...IN ORDER OF 0.3 TO 0.6 INCH QPF...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. STILL...THIS DOES INDEED LOOK LIKE A GOOD UPSLOPE TYPE EVENT SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON HILLS SOUTH OF BUF AND ALONG CHAUT RIDGE LATER THURS INTO THURS EVE LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. ELSEWHERE..MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY SNOW BY THURS EVE. USED MIXED PRECIP SMART TOOL IN GRIDS FOR THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH ELEVS TO LOW ELEVS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY BENIGN PERIOD DURING THIS STRETCH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WELL DEFINED SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JUST A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES AND MODEST LAKE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY, THEN A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY AND THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NOT ENOUGH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL COME DOWN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT BOTH CIGS/VSBY TO REMAIN VFR INITIALLY. AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS END...ADDED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY BRIEFLY ACROSS WESTERN NY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY STEEPENING A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION SHOULD PROMOTE AN EXPANDING LOW STRATUS DECK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER COLD GROUND AND SNOWPACK. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW. && .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL TEND SOUTHERLY...THEN BACK TO EASTERLY FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AND PICKING UP. THEY SHOULD FRESHEN UP FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. THEN...WESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTER ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES. THEY WILL DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND DISPOSITION OF THE EXISTING ICE JAMS ON CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON THESE CREEKS...AS WELL AS ALONG CATTARAUGUS CREEK NEAR SUNSET BAY. WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THESE CREEKS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING...BY FAR THE BIGGER THREAT WILL COME FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO A STRONG WARMUP...WHICH WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK. WE WILL BE FORTUNATE IN THAT EXPECTED QPF DURING THIS PERIOD DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY...GENERALLY 0.25 INCH OR SO...SO RUNOFF WILL COME MAINLY FROM SNOWMELT. WITH LITTLE SNOW LEFT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ICE JAMMING OF CREEKS. THE SITUATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE WARMUP WILL BE BRIEFER...BUT SNOWPACK IS HEAVIER. THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED AND BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ010-019-085. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SFM NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...SFM LONG TERM...SFM AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SFM HYDROLOGY...SFM ####018004463#### FXUS63 KMQT 101153 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 700 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009 UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION .DISCUSSION... AS NOTED IN THE HWO...UNTREATED ROADWAYS OR WALKWAYS WILL REMAIN STICK THIS MORNING...AS RAIN FELL OVER SNOW CREATING A THIN SHEET OF ICE. PONDING OF WATER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS...AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO SOUTHERN CANADA IT WILL LEAVE A TROUGH SET UP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED TO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW THIS WELL STACKED LOW...SFC THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB OVER NE SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO SHIFT JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN 24 HOURS...OR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES THE TREK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL SLIDE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CURRENT WEAKER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES HAS NOW CLOSED OFF AT 500MB. IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO E OKLAHOMA 12Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SURGING NORTH TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIKE OUR CURRENT LOW...THIS ONE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL THROUGH THE LAYERS...WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN LOCATION. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS MODEL INCONSISTENCY IS EVIDENT AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE 09/12Z ECMWF PLACES AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MINNESOTA THROUGH FT. WAYNE INDIANA. THE 10/00Z NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...BUT JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER...PLACING A RIDGE FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 09/12Z AND 10/00Z CANADIAN RUNS LOOK TO BE EVEN SLOWER BUT ARE MOVING MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING LOW TO OUR SOUTH...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STILL...WITH ITS CURRENTLY FORECAST POSITION...MUCH OF THIS SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE LAND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD MORE DEFINITION AND LOWER OUR LIKELY POPS FOR THE SE CWA...AS THE ECMWF AND OTHER MODELS KEEPS THIS AREA MOSTLY DRY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO SET UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN. IT SHOULD MEANDER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION. ANY SIZABLE RIDGE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN WILL WAIT UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)... VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF SRLY FLOW WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MELTING SNOW. AS THE DRY SLOT ON THE ERN EDGE OF DEEP LOW PRES PASSING TO THE W IMPACTS THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CIG/VSBY BY THE AFTN. BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOW LEVEL DRY ADECTION...SURFACE WARMING...AND COOLING ALOFT WITH A WEAKENING INVERSION ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUT SHRA CHANCES/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX CLOSER TO SFC LO PASSING TO THE W. && .MARINE (FOR 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... SE WINDS TO 30 KT WILL VEER SRLY TODAY AND SWRLY TONIGHT NIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRES SHIFTS TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THIS LOW LIFTS AWAY FM THE AREA...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE TO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHILE DEEPENING SLIGHTLY. IT WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION...AND FURTHER DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT NWRLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS OVR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW IS IN THE VCNTY. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BLO 25 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB