AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999
LATEST WVI INDICATED MONSOONAL MOISTR PLUME THAT WAS OVR THE CWA
DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT WITH DRY AIR
BEHIND IT OVR THE EXTREME NW CWA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM EARLY
MORNING TSRA OVR THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS DRIFTING NW INTO C
KS. THIS MOISTR MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR CWA ONCE IT MEETS
UP WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTR. NEVERTHELESS THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IS APPARENT BETWEEN THE NGM AND ETA. THE NGM TSCTS OVR GLD
SHOWED IMPRESSIVE OMEGAS WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTR JUST AFTER 00Z.
THE RUC AND THE NGM HAD A STRONG 5H/VORT MAX WHERE THE ETA WAS WEAKER
AND THE NGM/AVN/RUC HAD MID LVL CAA OVR THE CWA. IN ADDITION THE ETA
HAD THE MID LVLS DRIER BUT ALL MODELS DID HAVE A TROUGH MVG THOUGH
THE CWA THIS EARLY EVENING. AFTER MODIFYING THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING
WHICH INDICATED CAPES OVER 2000J THIS AFTN AND IT DOES BREAK THE CAP.
IF THE NGM IS THE CORRECT MODEL THAN THE CWA CUD HAVE SCT TSRA THIS
EVENING WHERE AS THE ETA WUD KEEP IT ISOLD TO WDLY SCT. ALL THREE
MAIN MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
PRESENT SFC SYSTEMS WITH THE NGM HAVING A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE ON THEIR
STRENGTH BUT IT MAY BE OVER DOING IT ABIT ON THE MOISTURE.
NEVERTHELESS WITH A 5H/TROUGH PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND SOME CAA
STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA...FEW TSRA
SHUD DEVELOP THIS LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE.
A SFC COLD FRONT OVR NW NEBRASKA SAGS SOUTH ACROS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
MONDAY WITH SOME MID LVL VORT ADVTN. SFC WNDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BY THE END OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL THE CWA AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROS
THE N CWA BY EVENING. THIS EASTERLY WIND SHUD USHER ALITTLE MORE
MOISTR INTO THE CWA WITH BOTH THE ETA/AVN HAVING THE SFC FRONT
ACROSS THE N FA...EXPECT TSRA TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. MID LVL
MOISTR INC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE S CWA
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROS THE S CWA TUESDAY AND WITH 5H/HGHTS
REMAINING NEAR 590...AFTN TMPS SHUDNT DROP TOO MUCH. AS THE FRONT
RETREATS NORTH WEDNESDAY SFC WINDS SHUD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
TMPS SHUD CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WITH A CONT SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA THRU
THURS. THE 5H/RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FA FROM THE NW. WITH
INCREASING MOISTR AT THIS TIME...TSRA CHANCES MAY INC FRIDAY WITH
COOLR TMPS.
.GLD...NONE.
VPAPOL
FXUS63 KDDC 042017 COR ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
915 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999
LATEST RUC/MESOETA...ETA AND ESP NGM ALL HINT AT UVVS AND VORT MAX TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER HIGH...TO DRIFT OVER E TN AND SPREAD PCPN INTO E TN
AND THEN NW INTO SC KY BTWN 06-12Z TNGHT-IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT
POPS TMRW DAY AS WELL. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP
A REAL CLOSE EYE ON THINGS.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.
HAPPY 4TH!!
.JKL...NONE.
HALL
FXUS71 KRLX 050035 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1000 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999
IR/VIS LOOPS SHOWING THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS
BLOWING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SPILLING INTO THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF CWA AS WELL.
LAPS DATA INDICATING CAPE VALUES ALREADY AROUND 1500 J/KG. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM 03Z ETA AND 09Z RUC FORECASTING CAPE VALUES AOA 3000
LATE AFTERNOON... WITH LITTLE/NO CAP. VORT CENTER THAT PRODUCED
CONVECTION ACROSS NY OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING SE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE.. BUT ITS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE AREA TO PROVIDE ANY LIFT. 00Z RAMS SHOWING POTENTIAL ON A LARGE
CONVERGENT AREA NEAR THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON... AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW AND SOUTHERLY ONSHORE WINDS FROM
THE WATER. THIS BOUNDARY AND CHANCES FOR ANY BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.. AND WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR AREAS FROM DCA/BWI EAST. SMALLER 20 POP FOR
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.. UPCAPPED SOUNDING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED EVENING STORMS FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.. AS STORMS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE
NOT DIED OFF UNTIL 00-01Z.
HAVE BROKEN UP ZONE GROUPS QUITE A BIT BECAUSE OF TEMPS TODAY. KLWX
VAD WINDS SHOWING WEST 20 KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE... AND MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT OUR WINDS FROM SW TO W BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE FROM CO-OP OBS YESTERDAY WERE AROUND 100.. AND SHOULD GO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THIS YET TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPS FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE RUNNING 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY'S
TEMPS AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FWC 3-HOURLY READINGS. WILL RAISE
TEMPS FOR THE CITIES A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL ISSUE A NPW STATEMENT WITH
ZONES... AND RE-ISSUE PNS WITH SAFETY TIPS SEEING THAT SEVERAL HUNDRED
THOUSAND PEOPLE WILL BE OUT ON THE MALL THIS AFTERNOON FOR HOLIDAY
EVENTS.
.LWX...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA.
MARGRAF!
md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999
00Z UPR AIR INDICATES EXPANSIVE RDG ACRS ERN CONUS WITH TROF OUT IN
PAC NW. WV LOOP HINTS AT SHRTWV RIDING NEWD THRU MN IN SWLY FLOW AHD
OF NW TROF WITH TROPICAL PLUME FEEDING INTO WRN GRT LKS. 03Z SFC
CHART INDICATES WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS CNTRL CWA IN WAKE OF
CNVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS SINCE PASSED INTO ERN U.P. BNDRY SEPARATES
MUCH COOLER AIR DOWNDRAFT AIR OVR LK SUP/NRN ZNS WITH LAPS SHOWING
LARGE CIN FM OPPRESSIVE... VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO S WITH DWPTS CLOSE
TO 80 ACRS NRN WI AND CAPE OVR 5000 J/KG PER LAPS. THIS CAPE
CONSISTENT WITH 00Z GRB SDNG WHICH HAS CAPE OF 4600 J/KG BUT WITH
SHARP CAPPING INVRN BASE ARND H85. HORIZONTAL LO LVL SHEAR ACRS
BNDRY QUITE APRNT WITH NNELY FLOW AT MQT AND SSWLY WND TO S OF
OUTFLOW. 00Z GRB ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW FM H9-3 NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WSWLY WITH WND GENERALLY 30-40KT. LATEST 88D SHOWS TSRA MOVG INTO
MQT COUNTY WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER APRCHG GOGEBIC. DLH HAD PUT OUT A
TORNADO WRNG FOR A CELL IN THIS CLUSTER IN BAYFIELD COUNTY WI...AND
RADAR INDICATES A HOOK PATTERN. A TORNADO HERE WOULD BE CONSISTENT
WITH SGNFT LO LVL BNDRY/SHEAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR OVRNGT CENTER ARND COVG/INTENSITY OF CNVCTN
AND WHETHER EXISTING DYNAMICS/LO LVL CNVGC WL BE ABLE TO BRK STRG
CAP OBSVD ON GRB SDNG. 00Z RUC INDICATES UPR SHRTWV IN MN WL WEAKEN
AS IT RIDES EWD AWAY FM PAC NW TROF...BUT LGT DATA INDICATES INCRSG
ACTIVITY ACRS MN. GIVEN PRESENCE OF SHARP BNDRY AND SHRTWV TO W WITH
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR UNDER CAP TO S... ASSUME ENUF LO LVL CNVG/UPR
LVL DVGC TO INITIATE CNVCTN DURG NGT. SHEAR PROFILE FVRBL FOR PSBL
TORNADO AND STRG TSRA WNDS. LATEST DISCUSSION FM SPC SUGS WATCH BOX
MAY BE NEEDED IN CWA.
.MQT...NONE.
KC
FXUS63 KGRR 050155 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999
SHORT RANGE FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SVR THREAT...AT 18Z IR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING
DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW MCS OVR NE MN PROPAGATING E ALONG 700-300MB
THICKNESS FIELD. GIVEN THIS TRAECTORY...NW CWA (INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE) WILL BE UNDER GUN BETWEEN 19-23Z. IMBEDDED TSRA HAVE HISTORY
OF BEING SVR...HOWEVER SOME WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS STABLE MARINE LAYER AND HI THETA-E INFLOW BECOMES CUT OFF
BY W LK SUPERIOR. SHORTWAVE SUPPORT EVIDENT BY MODEL INITIALIZATION
OF VORT MAX IN E ND. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE NE ACROSS W
LK SUPERIOR...AND INTO ONTARIO BY 06Z. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE TSRA NOW
FIRING ON OUTFLOW BDRY FROM C MN INTO NW WI. 15Z RUC INDICATES AXIS
OF MAX THETA-E AT 850MB POOLED S OF ASSOC WARM FRONT OVER N
MN...SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY N INTO NE MN AND N LK SUPERIOR BY
03Z...WITH 40KT SW INFLOW JET IMPINGING ON BDRY. THICKNESS FIELD
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ESE...IMPLYING RISK OF PROPAGATION INTO W CWA
TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL GO HIGHEST
POPS IN WEST...WITH DIMINISHING POPS TO SE AND E. WILL BEEF UP
WORDING FOR CONVECTION OVR W CWA WITH SUPPORT FROM SPC
LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES CWA FROM W. NGM
CONTINUES TO BE FASTEST...WITH AVN SLOWEST. ETA IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE...PUSHING FRONT ACROSS CWA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z MONDAY
EVENING...WITH NEXT THREAT OF CONVECTION. WILL GO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHRA/TSRA...INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR E CWA. NGM SEEMS TOO STRONG
WITH DEEPENING WAVE OVR ONTARIO...RESULTING IN TIGHT PRS GRAD AND
FWC GUIDANCE WINDS THAT ARE LIKELY TOO STRONG.
BREEZY...DRIER...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HI
PRS BUILDS TOWARD CWA FROM PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND GOOD RADATIONAL COOLING IN WEST CWA.
IN EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
IN RETROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN. NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE REBUILDING RIDGE OVR ROCKIES DAYS 5-7. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE REESTABLISHMENT OF THE GULF OF AK LOW...WHICH
ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN DOWNSTREAM TROFING OVR E NOAM...INCLUDING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MRF SHOWING CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH LONG WAVE PATTERN...WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FROM ECMWF. FOR
DAILIES...SFC HI PRS DOMINATES THE CWA WEDNESDAY SPONSERING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BY THURSDAY RETURN FLOW/WAD DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER
MIDWEST AS HI PRS MOVES TO EAST. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN WEST. QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY SLIPS TO S
OF CWA ON FRI WITH TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST TO S OF CWA OVR
WI. BY THIS TIME SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS FROM ROCKIES INDUCING LEE
SIDE CYCLOGENISIS...AS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE MRF AND ECMWF. THIS
SYSTEM THEN MOVES NE ALONG BDRY THRU E GREAT LKS AS UPR TROF DIGS
INTO GREAT LKS. GIVEN UNCERTAIN TIMING OF IMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
AND...WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATE
ACROSS CWA.
COORD WITH APN/GRB
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KAPX 042009 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
835 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS WITH PSBL CONVECTION AND HEAT
ADVISORY. WIDESPREAD TSTMS DEVELOPING JUST N OF CWA AT 01Z...IN AN
AREA N OF QS BOUNDARY ACRS CNTRL MN. 00Z MPX SOUNDING WAS NOT OVERLY
CAPPED...AND THIS AIR WAS FEEDING NORTH INTO A REGION OF PERSISTENT
SFC MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...
PROFILERS AND SFC PRESS FALLS SEEM TO HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER
SW MN. 21Z RUC PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE...AND RIDES IT NORTH ALONG
BOUNDARY TONIGHT. WITH 80H LLJ NOSING IN FM THE SW AFT DARK AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY JUST N OF
THE CWA.
HOT PROD CONTINUES TO PUSH IN OVERNIGHT...CREATING A SW-NE THICKNESS
RIDGE ACROSS CNTRL MN. ORIENTATION OF THICKNESS PATTERN AND CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD HINT AT MCS STAYING MAINLY NORTH.
WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS NRN CWA AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED S/W NR AREA
OF MAX SFC MOIST FLUX CONV. OTRW...REST OF THE AREA APPEARS CAPPED.
HEAT ADVISORY ONGOING AND LOOKING GOOD ATTM. WL LEAVE ALONE.
.MSP...HEAT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY SE OF LINE FROM KCBG TO KHCD
TO KULM.
DAVIS
FXUS63 KMPX 042028 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
945 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAX TEMPERATURES AND SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION WORKING INTO FAR PORTION OF CWA. CURRENT MCS RIDING
JUST NORTH OF 582 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. CAP IN PLACE OVER S MN AND
SE HALF OF SD. LATEST RUC KEEPING HIGH THICKNESSES AND CAP IN PLACE
OVER S MN TODAY. HOWEVER..A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT SOME OUTFLOW UP
AROUND FFM AND POSSIBLY MORE TO OCCUR INTO FAR NORTH PART OF
CWA..MAY CAUSE ENOUGH CONV TO OVERCOME CAP. ALSO POSSIBLE THAT TAIL
END OF COVECTIVELY INDUCED TROUGH MAY BE PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING.
TAIL END OF CONVECTION OVER NE SD MAY HOLD TOGETHER. WILL INTRODUCE
SMALL POP FOR FAR NW CWA FOR AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE..HOT AND HUMID OVER REST OF AREA. S MN IN EXTENSION OF HOT
BUBBLE OF AIR THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS MAY BE
JUST AT THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ACTUALLY CRITERIA
WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT AS HEAT INDICES WERE ABOVE 80 LAST NIGHT.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AND ADD FOR TONIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
MAX TEMPS IN MID 90S.
.MSP...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT. .
MNZ047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028
JPR
FXUS63 KMPX 040829 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
830 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999
WEAK...HARD TO IDENTIFY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SE MT WITH ANOTHER ONE
THROUGH ID. VORT MAX IN MW MT MOVING EAST. GOES 10 DERIVED LI'S SHOW -
6 IN SE MT WITH GOES 10 DERIVED CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J IN SE MT. RADAR
FROM BILLINGS INDICATE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN THE SE
ZONES. GOOD SPEED SHEAR SHOWN AT BILLINGS RADAR SITE. LATEST SURFACE
MAP INDICATES TWO INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHS THAT HAVE JUST FORMED...ONE
WEST OF BILLINGS AND THE OTHER IN SE MT. THESE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...PLUS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MIGHT BE THE TRIGGER
FOR MORE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK THE CAP IN
SE MT. 00Z RUC SLOWS TROF...WHICH AGREES WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY PUTTING THE TROF AXIS...AND BEST VORTICITY ACROSS
CENTRAL MT BY 12Z. 700 MB TROF PASSES INTO EASTERN MT BY 12Z. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWING OF THE TROF PASSAGE...CURRENT FORECAST COVERS IT WELL.
WITH SPC KEEPING SE MT IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...WILL NOT CHANGE ZONES.
FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING EAST OF
LIVINGSTON. STROBIN
BIL BB 052/079 055/086 059 634000
LVM .. 049/076 052/082 ... 636002
HDN .. 051/081 053/087 ... 634000
MLS .. 056/080 056/088 ... 636200
4BQ .. 055/078 053/086 ... 636200
BHK .. 053/079 053/087 ... 636200
SHR BB 050/081 050/087 054 633000
FXUS65 KTFX 050243 mt
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999
WILL GO WITH THE 18Z RUC WHICH PINPOINTS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON THAT IS MOVING SIGNIFICANLTY SLOWER THAN THE AVN...NGM
AND ETA...BUT SEEMS TO BE ACCELERATING EASTWARD FASTER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. TFX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES TO NORTH WHICH ARE DECREASING
AND MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT NOW ECHOES ARE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.
RADARS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY. WITH FAIRLY STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST...AND UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE IN AREA... WILL GO HIGH ON POPS NORTHERN ZONES. QPF PROGS AND
MOS HAVE BEEN WAY TO DRY FOR AREA AND WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM BELIEVE IT
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AIR MASS PROBABLY DESTABIZIING IN THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE HEATING BETTER AND SOME COOLING ALOFT...SO EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. EXTRAPOLING THE RUC BEYOND 12 HOURS
INDICATES TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF AREA AT 12Z...SO WILL GO LOW POPS
MONDAY...PLUS DOWNSLOPE INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE RIDGING
AND WARMING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OARD
GTF 6101 HLN 4101 HVR 6200
FXUS65 KGGW 042042 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z BUF SOUNDING MANIPULATION FOR TEMP/DWPT
OF 84/75 REVEALED CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH LI OF -6 TO -7.
OVERLAYING 700 MB RUC TEMPS ON SAT REVEALS A STRONG CAP AND THE
REASON FOR LITTLE TSTM ACTVTY OVR SRN GRT LKS AND NYS. KAPX 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS +21C AT 759 MB AND 700 MB TEMPS AT +15C. WITH W TO
NWLY FLO ALF SEE NO REASON WHY SUCH WARM AIR WILL NOT CONT TO MOVE
INTO CNTRL AND SRN CWA THOUGH IT MAY MODIFY SLGTLY. NGM/ETA ALSO
FCST 850/700 MB TEMPS TO WARM OVR CNTRL NY TNGT SO WOULD EXPECT THE
CAP TO HOLD STRONG. THAT BEING SAID CONDS WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT
ACRS NRN CWA. CRRNT TSTM ACTVTY ACRS U.P. OF MI AND LK SUPERIOR
SHWS TSTM ACTVTY DEVELOPING WELL INTO THE NRN PORTION OF CAP. ALSO
SOME SMALLER CONVECTION DVLPG ALONG LK BREEZE ACRS U.P. OF MI.
COORD WITH SPC IN AGRMNT WITH CONVECTION TO ARRIVE ARND MIDNGT.
SHEAR VALS WILL NOT BE THAT STRNG HWVR WITH BUILDING RDG AND
WEAKENING WIND FLO SO MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN...JUST LIKE THIS MRNG. THEREFORE WILL INCRS POPS TO 70 PCNT
ACRS NRN CWA AND GO WITH SCT POPS ACRS SRN TIER IN CASE ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVE INTO SRN TIER LATER TNGT...WILL ELIMINATE POPS ACRS SRN
CWA.
HOT AND HUMID CONDS WILL CONT THROUGH MON AS CONTD WARM AIR ALF
KEEPS LID ON TSTM ACTVTY. RECORD HI IN BGM (91) IS IN JEOPARDY TMW
AS EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO LOWER 90S. OTHER RECORDS ARE MUCH
HIER.
BY TUES STRONGER UPPER SHT WV AND SFC CDFNT APPROACH AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL THEN SO WOULD
EXPECT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT GIVEN STRONGER LIFTING
MECHANISM AND MORE COOLG ALF.
.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES
FXUS61 KBUF 041922 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
935 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999
NO FIREWORKS FROM MOTHER NATURE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES SFC AND
ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. JUST SOME CI ROTATING AROUND UPR HIGH
AND WILL GO WITH MSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA SHOW
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM N OVERNIGHT BUT NO ACTVTY CURRENTLY
ASSCTD WITH IT AND SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. MIN TEMPS LOOK
ON TRACK WITH LOW-MID 70S EXPECTED.
CWF: CURRENTLY SW WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS OVER AREA EXCEPT
NEAR 20 AT DIAMOND SHOALS. WILL LOWER SOUNDS TO 15 KTS BUT KEEP NRN
SECTION OF CSTL WATERS 15-20 BUT ADJUST BREAK PT TO OCRACOKE.
.MHX...HEAT ADV NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095
JBM
FXUS72 KRAH 050103 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
820 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999
.CURRENT SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
00Z SURFACE AND MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
WYOMING. LATEST IR SATELLITE AND KMVX RADAR TRENDS INDICATED WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF A BDE-BJI-DTL LINE
WHICH IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY.
.SHORT TERM...
21Z RUC SHOWED RATHER STRONG CAP INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING. EXPECT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA TO IGNITE MCS COMPLEX OVER EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NODAK LATER TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
PROPOGATE EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12Z. WILL
MAKE COSMETIC CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING APPEARS
ON TRACK.
.FGF...NONE.
BERG
FXUS63 KFGF 042035 nd
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999
DISCUSSION CONDENSED IN ANTICIPATION OF PSBL SVR CONVECTION. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS REGION
REMAINS SW UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT IN BACKING SAID BOUNDARY WESTWARD AS NE PANHANDLE SFC LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SD.
INITIAL S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT CONVECTION WEST LIFTS NE OUT OF FA
BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z DEPENDING ON MODEL. SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN SUBS
BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR PS AND WITH LITTEL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...CONTINUED WAA TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE WARM. LATER GUIDANCE TEMPS
SIMILAR AND SEEMS REASONBLE CONSIDERING ABOVE THINKING SO GENERALLY
FOLLOWED.
****AN UPDATE TO EARLIER WRITTEN DISCUSSION****CONVECTION PROPAGATING
IN A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE VS NE. FROM SPC COORD UPPER FLOW MAY BE
BACKING MORE THAN EARLIER MODEL INDICATIONS WHICH IS HINTED BY VORT
TRACK FROM RUC. AS A RESULT CONVECTION LIFTING INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR
WHICH MAY LESSEN SVR THREAT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PCPN CHANCES NOW
GREATER FARTHER WEST OF FA VS E PTNS.
WEAKER IMPULSES RIDE UP FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND WITH SFC
BOUNDARY...CAPES... INSTABILITY AND DEVELOPING 30 TO 50 KT LLJ COULD BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY AS N STREAM S/W FLATTENS RIDGE AND
PUSHES SFC BOUNDARY EAST OF FA ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND COOLER H8 TEMPS
TO SPREAD OVER FA. VORT TAIL AND A LITTLE HIGHER INTEGRATED RH CLIPS
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SHRA.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KBIS 040826 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES HAS ADVECTED
COOLER AIR FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE TROPOSPHERE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. A CAP WHICH EXISTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
TIME YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WHETHER TO INTRODUCE LOW POPS
INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG AND A LFC OF 5000 FT. THE ONLY
INGREDIENT THAT APPEARS TO BE MISSING IS A LIFTING MECHANISM.
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER WITH THE LFC SO LOW...ONLY WEAK
LIFT WILL BE NEEDED. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
ATOKA COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS POINT I DON'T THINK ITS WORTH MENTIONING.
ONLY CHANGE AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE IN A FEW AREAS.
.OUN...
OK...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY MOST OF W AND C OK.
TX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY WESTERN NORTH TX.
JAMES
FXUS64 KOUN 040821 ok
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 1999
...WORK ZONES OUT AS PHLADMCTP...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA...THE RESULT OF A
A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN 8H TEMPS COMBINED WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE 70S.
12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW 850 TEMP OF JUST 17C AT PIT...WHILE AREAS
TO THE WEST AND EAST ARE 20C+. FEEL THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS WILL GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES THIS AFTN AS WEST FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER 8H TEMPS INTO THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP THE
"HAZY AND HOT" TERMINOLOGY OF PREVIOUS FCST.
REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH...WHICH PRODUCED MCS OVER NEW ENGLAND...ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN PA EARLY THIS AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PLENTY OF CAPE (RUC LI'S PROGGED TO -10). THUS WILL KEEP THE
CHC OF A TSRA OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WARMER MID LVL TEMPS BEHIND
S/WV SHOULD CAP THINGS OFF OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
CHC OF A TSRA OVER THE NORTHWEST MTNS...WHERE A LAKE FRONT STORM IS
POSSIBLE.
AS OF 14Z...TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONTINUE
THE HEAT ADV THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES HOTTER ON MONDAY...BRINGING
THE LOWER SUSQ UP TO HEAT WARNING CONDITIONS.
.CTP...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE SE ZONES
(PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066).
FITZGERALD
FXUS61 KPBZ 041423 pa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
954 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999
RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH LITTLE TO KEY ON THIS UPDATE. RUC PICKED
UP VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NY MCS AND DROPS IT DOWN EAST SIDE RIDGE
BUT IT REMAINS TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THIS AREA. EXPECT
A REPEAT OF SATURDAY CONVECTION BEGINNING IN MTNS FIRST...THEN
FTHLS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP STORMS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST...KEEPING MOST
ACTIVITY OUT OF LOWLANDS. FREEZING LEVEL AT 14K SO DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE MUCH IN WAY OF HAIL. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVEMENT CREATE SOME MINOR
FLOODING/PONDING PROBLEMS. NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES THIS UPDATE.
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS62 KCHS 041350 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CDT SUN JULY 4 1999
WEAK WARM FRONT HANGING JUST SOUTH OF KABR ALL DAY HAS FINALLY
LIFTED NORTH PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEGA AMOUNTS OF MOIST
CONT TO POOL ALONG FRONT...EVIDENCE BY THE 80 DWPT REACHED AT KABR
AT 01Z. 00Z KABR SOUNDING...MODIFIED FOR 01Z CURRENTS OF 86/80 GAVE
US A CAPE OF 6400 J/KG WITH LI OF -13. CAP WAS 1.4 DEGREES...BELOW
850 MB. HOWEVER...NO TRIGGER COMING THROUGH TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION.
00Z RUC HAS MUCH OF CWA IN WEAK THTA-E TROF AND BEST LOLVL JET
SKIRTS NE OF CWA INTO MN. RUC ALSO SHOWS DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS MUCH
OF CWA THROUGH NIGHT...WITH NO WELL DEFINED S/W MOVING THRU TO HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR FAR NERN COUNTIES IN
CASE CONVECTION IN MN BACKBUILDS INTO AREA. OTHERWISE WILL
BACKPEDDLE ON POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF CWA.
.ABR...NONE.
HINTZ
FXUS63 KUNR 050038 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999
08Z SURFACE MAP SHOW FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKTOA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOCATION FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE KEY TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
NGM/AVN MOVE FRONT FURTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY THAN DOES THE ETA
AND 06Z RUC. CURRENTLY FRONT IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN 6HR
FORECAST FROM ETA...MAINLY DUE TO CONVECTICE OUTFLOW. BASE ON THE
MODEL PERFORMENCE THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH GO WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN
LOCATION OF THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PLACE THE FRONT
FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR
BLACK HILLS AS MANY CREEKS RUNNING HIGH. DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC LOOKS GOOD. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW
HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY.
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
.UNR...NONE.
KRC
FXUS63 KABR 040828 sd
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999
UPDATED A COUPLE OF ZONES TO UP POPS NE BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS IN A FEW PLACES...HOWEVER
SOUNDING INDICATES THAT IT WOULD NOT TAKE THAT MUCH HEATING TO REACH
(CRP AND RKP WERE ALREADY 86F BEFORE NOON). THUS...WILL LET HIGHS GO
AS IS.
NEW FWC POPS LOOK SUSPICIOUSLY DRY. HAVE NOT HAD TIME TO LOOK AT
ANY OF THE MODELS OTHER THAN THE RUC AND PREVIOUS MESO-ETA...BUT
HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THOSE NUMBERS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO IGNORE
THESE.
MARINE: MAINTAINED THE SCA OFFSHORE FOR SWELLS...MAY BE LOWERED
TONIGHT. CAUTION SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE BAYS/INLAND WATERWAYS THOUGH
WINDS HIGHER IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
.CRP...SCA GMZ250-255-270-275.
86/GW...75/JM
FXUS64 KMAF 041624 tx
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
320 AM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH WILL MOVE
LITTLE TODAY. HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...REMAINS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NE
INTO CNTRL CANADA BY THIS EVENING. ONE LAST VORT LOBE CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL OREGON WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER NE ACROSS IDAHO/MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONCE THIS IS OUT OF THE WAY...LOOK FOR THE
4-CORNER HIGH TO SET UP AND REMAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEST OF SLC ONCE AGAIN TO BE THE BIG QUESTION MARK
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS SEEN IN DOPPLER VELOCITY AND MESONET
DATA. MODELS FROM THE 00Z AND 03Z RUNS OFFERING 2 SOLUTIONS. THE
ETA...MESO-ETA...RUC ALL FORCE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLC EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN INTO CNTRL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AVN ON THE OTHER
HAND PUT THE BOUNDARY TO SLC LATE THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWS LITTLE
PUSH BEYOND THAT. REALLY DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS
THAT WILL PUSH THIS BOUNDARY ALONG...SO FEEL THE AVN PROBABLY THE
BEST SOLUTION GOING. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES
ON TAP...BUT WILL FOCUS THESE BASED ON SATURDAY'S RESULTS.
ABOVE MENTIONED VORT LOBE THAT RACES ACROSS NRN ROCKIES SHOULD
SUPPLY THE GENTLE NUDGE THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO
FINALLY MOVE INTO CNTRL UTAH TONIGHT. NRN SECTIONS WILL SEE COOLER
BUT STILL DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN HOT...DUSTY
AND IN SOME LOCATIONS BREEZY. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATION
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AIRMASS QUITE DEVOID OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LACKING.
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH BY MIDWEEK BRINGS ON THE
QUESTION OF HOW SOON WILL THE 'MONSOONAL' MOISTURE FOLLOW. AVN 72-
HOUR PROG SHOWS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH NV/WRN
UT. CORRESPONDING 700 MB THETA-E STILL HINTS THAT THE MOISTURE
IS REMAINING BACK IN SERN AZ TUESDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS RIGHT NOW
THAT IF ANY MOISTURE DOES SURGE NORTH...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY FOR THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF
UTAH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AZ AND NRN MEXICO TO SEE HOW
THINGS WILL PLAY OUT.
SLC --0 CDC 000 CONGER
.SLC...WIND ADVISORY TODAY UTZ005-015-016.
ut
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON
840 AM PDT SUN JUL 4 1999
SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON HANGING BACK LONGER AND DEEPER
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THOUGHT. DPROG/DT OF NEW 12Z ETA SHOWS
A COLD POOL OF -26C AT 500MB NEAR KDLS WHICH WASN'T FORESEEN BY
MODELS. CORRESPONDING COMMA CLOUD MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN MT. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
MAINLY STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF A KLWS-KMLP LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE THAT THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. OTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTHERN BC. METARS NORTH OF THE BORDER
ARE ALL SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AS
THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE BORDER. BUT MORNING HAM REPORTS INDICATE SOME
RAIN IN NORTHERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD POOL. NEW ETA AND RUC FORECAST THIS COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA TODAY AND BE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY 00Z. SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BASIN ALREADY DYING OUT BUT IT SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MORNING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY UP
FROM YESTERDAY'S READINGS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW/VORT MAX RESULT IN
SOME DECENT DIV-Q UPWARD FORCING AT 300-500MB AND 500-700MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE 200-400 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE
SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL UPDATE MOST ZONES TO REFLECT THIS.
RJ
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...
GEG 066/046/076 320
CQV 065/045/076 421
S86 064/043/073 431
COE 066/044/075 420
WWP 062/040/071 431
LWS 073/048/080 200
MOS 064/043/074
EAT 073/053/081 000
.GEG...NONE.
FXUS66 KSEW 041528 wa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
306 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S COASTAL AREAS
TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S INLAND AREAS AND DEW-POINTS RANGING IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SUGGEST THAT SOME WORDING TO INDICATE HEAT
INDICES MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY...AT 1 AM SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. A WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SUBSISTENCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AND RADAR SHOWED NO RAINFALL
IN THE AREA. THROUGH MID MORNING THE 03Z RUC KEEPS DRY AREA OVER THE
AREA WITH THE THE AVERAGE MOISTURE IN THE 100-500 LAYER AVERAGING
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.
OVER THE LONGER TERM THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN THE MOISTURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FWC
TEMPS SEEMS SLIGHTLY TO HIGH BUT WITH GOOD SUBSTANCE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER AND MID
90S FOR SOME INTERIOR AREAS.
AMG 93/71/92/70 1032
SSI 88/75/90/74 0032
JAX 91/72/92/73 1022
GNV 92/70/92/71 2021 33
BLS
FXUS62 KTBW 050644 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999
00Z UPR AIR INDICATES EXPANSIVE RDG ACRS ERN CONUS WITH TROF OUT IN
PAC NW. WV LOOP HINTS AT SHRTWV RIDING NEWD THRU MN IN SWLY FLOW AHD
OF NW TROF WITH TROPICAL PLUME FEEDING INTO WRN GRT LKS. 03Z SFC
CHART INDICATES WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS CNTRL CWA IN WAKE OF
CNVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS SINCE PASSED INTO ERN U.P. BNDRY SEPARATES
MUCH COOLER AIR DOWNDRAFT AIR OVR LK SUP/NRN ZNS WITH LAPS SHOWING
LARGE CIN FM OPPRESSIVE... VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO S WITH DWPTS CLOSE
TO 80 ACRS NRN WI AND CAPE OVR 5000 J/KG PER LAPS. THIS CAPE
CONSISTENT WITH 00Z GRB SDNG WHICH HAS CAPE OF 4600 J/KG BUT WITH
SHARP CAPPING INVRN BASE ARND H85. HORIZONTAL LO LVL SHEAR ACRS
BNDRY QUITE APRNT WITH NNELY FLOW AT MQT AND SSWLY WND TO S OF
OUTFLOW. 00Z GRB ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW FM H9-3 NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WSWLY WITH WND GENERALLY 30-40KT. LATEST 88D SHOWS TSRA MOVG INTO
MQT COUNTY WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER APRCHG GOGEBIC. DLH HAD PUT OUT A
TORNADO WRNG FOR A CELL IN THIS CLUSTER IN BAYFIELD COUNTY WI...AND
RADAR INDICATES A HOOK PATTERN. A TORNADO HERE WOULD BE CONSISTENT
WITH SGNFT LO LVL BNDRY/SHEAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR OVRNGT CENTER ARND COVG/INTENSITY OF CNVCTN
AND WHETHER EXISTING DYNAMICS/LO LVL CNVGC WL BE ABLE TO BRK STRG
CAP OBSVD ON GRB SDNG. 00Z RUC INDICATES UPR SHRTWV IN MN WL WEAKEN
AS IT RIDES EWD AWAY FM PAC NW TROF...BUT LGT DATA INDICATES INCRSG
ACTIVITY ACRS MN. GIVEN PRESENCE OF SHARP BNDRY AND SHRTWV TO W WITH
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR UNDER CAP TO S... ASSUME ENUF LO LVL CNVG/UPR
LVL DVGC TO INITIATE CNVCTN DURG NGT. SHEAR PROFILE FVRBL FOR PSBL
TORNADO AND STRG TSRA WNDS. LATEST DISCUSSION FM SPC SUGS WATCH BOX
MAY BE NEEDED IN CWA.
.MQT...NONE.
KC
FXUS63 KGRR 050155 mi
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
410 AM CDT MON JUL 5 1999
...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR ALL FA FOR FIRST PDS PRIOR TO
ISSUING ZFP...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF MORE
STABLE AIR OVER NE ND. NEWEST RUC SHOWS THIS AREA TO STAY A BIT MORE
STABLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH LI/S ONLY DOWN TO 0 AT 15Z. FAR SRN ZONE TO
BE MORE UNSTABLE IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FREONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONCE COLD FRONT SHOVES INTO THIS AREA EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE THERE...BUT ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED AS LAPSE RATES DIMINISH
THIS MORNING. WILL CUT BACK ON POPS ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
FA...AND REMOVE WORDING OF SEVERE FROM WRKZFP. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS LOOK
ON TRACK. WILL ISSURE ZFP SHORTLY.
.FGF...NONE.
DJK/RJT
FXUS63 KBIS 050835 nd
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
215 AM CDT MON JUL 5 1999
...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST PERIOD...THEN TEMPS...
MODELS SIMILAR AT 5H AND AT SFC...BUT ALL WERE A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH
LOCATION OF SFC LOW. ALL DO SHOW COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY PUSH THROUGH THE
FA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. NGM SHOWING
WARMING TREND AT 850 MB IN LATER PDS...HOWEVER WITH 5H PATTERN TAKING
ON A WNW ORIENTATION COOLER ETA PREFERRED.
.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER WRN ND THIS AM AHEAD OF S/W AND
ALONG FRONT IN AREA OF DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE. AS FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST...IT WILL INTERACT WITH AREA OF HIGHER RH OVER SRN FA. CAPES
RUNNING ABOUT 2000 J/KG THIS AREA...AND THUS WILL BUMP UP POPS THIS
REGION FOR TODAY. RUC HAS AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SE OF FA BY
15Z...BUT SECONDARY AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN FA LINGERS
TIL 18Z. TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ND SUGGESTS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVER EXTREME NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PCPN
ENDING BY 21Z. WILL WORD ZFP ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FA FROM THE WEST AND WILL
DOMINATE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FWC/FAN REFLECTING WARMING OF 850
MB TEMPS AS BOTH THESE MODELS SHOW WAA SETTING UP...BUT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WNW 5H FLOW...THESE MODELS TOO AGRESSIVE ON RETURNING
WARMER AIR...WITH ETA MORE REASONABLE. WILL CUT TEMPS BACK FOR THIS
REASON.
.EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
WED/THU...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ON FRI. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
BIG PLAYER WED/THU AS ANOTHER WARMFRONT SURGES NORTHWARD...WITH THE
GULF ONCE AGAIN OPEN. AS UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH FA ON FRI...TSRA
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH COLD POOL. THIS ALL HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
EXTENDED...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.
.FGF...NONE.
DJK/RJT
FXUS63 KFGF 050124 nd
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON
840 AM PDT SUN JUL 4 1999
SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON HANGING BACK LONGER AND DEEPER
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THOUGHT. DPROG/DT OF NEW 12Z ETA SHOWS
A COLD POOL OF -26C AT 500MB NEAR KDLS WHICH WASN'T FORESEEN BY
MODELS. CORRESPONDING COMMA CLOUD MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN MT. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
MAINLY STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF A KLWS-KMLP LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE THAT THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. OTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTHERN BC. METARS NORTH OF THE BORDER
ARE ALL SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AS
THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE BORDER. BUT MORNING HAM REPORTS INDICATE SOME
RAIN IN NORTHERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD POOL. NEW ETA AND RUC FORECAST THIS COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA TODAY AND BE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY 00Z. SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BASIN ALREADY DYING OUT BUT IT SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MORNING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY UP
FROM YESTERDAY'S READINGS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW/VORT MAX RESULT IN
SOME DECENT DIV-Q UPWARD FORCING AT 300-500MB AND 500-700MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE 200-400 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE
SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL UPDATE MOST ZONES TO REFLECT THIS.
RJ
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...
GEG 066/046/076 320
CQV 065/045/076 421
S86 064/043/073 431
COE 066/044/075 420
WWP 062/040/071 431
LWS 073/048/080 200
MOS 064/043/074
EAT 073/053/081 000
.GEG...NONE.
FXUS66 KSEW 041528 wa
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING TOWARDS 30N WILL KEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BUT A TAD LIGHTER THAN PAST FEW DAYS.
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO DRY OUT...WITH GREATEST DRYING OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN RADAR LOOP THAT WAS SHOWING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ALONG
WITH THE DRYING...SUBSIDENCE HAS EVEN WARMED THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL HEATING/CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST...
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS. OVERALL THOUGH...DO NOT SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT NEEDS UPDATING.
MARINE...MAPS ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT GRADIENT WAS SUPPORTING 10 KT
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.
THEREFORE THE NORTHERN LEG WILL BE UPDATED TO LOWER WINDS TO 10 KT.
.MLB...NONE.
LASCODY
FXUS62 KTBW 051325 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 AM EDT MON JUL 05 1999
AFTER DAYS OF MODELS ADVERTIZING A DRYING TREND ACROSS CWA...WE
MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE ONE. INVERTED TROF LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
WEEKEND RAINS NOW WEST OF CWA. IN ITS WAKE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
CLEARLY INDICATES GUD SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE ALONG GA
COAST AND MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CWA. UPPER RIDGE FOLLOWS SUIT
NEARLY JUXTAPSED TO YIELD A HOT DAY. ALL THIS REFLECTED IN 12Z TLH
SOUNDING WITH DEEP EASTERLIES...SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STABLE INDICES
LAST 12 HOURS...I.E PCPTL WATER 2.09 VS 1.43 OR LIFTED/K -3/36 VS
-3/15. CURRENT RUC KEEPS CWA DRY TODAY..ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
SEABREEZE IMPACTED COAST. THUS SEA BREEZE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT ESE FAVORS WNW FACING COASTS WITH LITTLE
REACHING INLAND SITES. THUS FOCUS I.E. PANAMA CITY TO DESTIN WHERE
MM5 PUTS ITS BULLSEYE LATER TODAY AND FRANKLIN THRU WAKULLA COAST
(LOCALLY TYPE 6 BECOMING TYPE 2 SEA BREEZE) BUT THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE OVERFORECASTING PRECIP. THUS AOB 30 PERCENT POPS THIS AFTERNOON
LUKS GOOD WITH ALONG COAST WITH BLO 20 PERCENT ELSEWWHERE. 13Z TEMPS
IN LINE WITH FWC RATHER THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH FAN. MID 90S WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW GUD BET MOST SITES AND THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITES SHUD CONSIDER SHADE AND WATER IN THEIR PLANS.
COASTAL WATERS LOOK FINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
BLOCK
FXUS62 KEYW 051312 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
AREA OF CONVECTION AFFECTING ERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED INTO ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPING FROM WRN UPR MI SW
THROUGH NRN WI. RUC AND ETA BOTH DOING A GOOD JOB OF PIN-POINTING AREA
OF STRONG 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND THETA E RIDGE AXIS
FUELING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. EXTRAPOLATION BY BOTH MODELS KEEPS
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER WI THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STILL...WOULD NOT
RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM REACHING ERN UPR AND/OR
FAR NRN LOWER COUNTIES DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT SVR POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING...AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 60
KTS AT 500 MB AND THETA E RIDGE IS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CI BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO THE W HAS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. SHOULD NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT TEMPS FROM REACHING FORECASTED HIGHS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH NE LOWER
SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AFFECTS WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
.APX...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL OF NRN LWR (MIZ016>036-041-042).
EME
FXUS63 KAPX 051132 AMD mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
UPPER AIR PLOTS AND BUF SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF MID LVL WARM
AIR WITH 700 MB TEMPS ARND +13 AND +14C. THIS WILL KEEP A LID ON
THE BUBBLING LOW LVL MSTR CRRNTLY IN PLACE. MSTR A BIT DEEPER AND
UP TO ABOUT 6K FT AND ALREADY SEEING FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD.
WILL GO WITH PTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT ARND AVP AREA
WHERE CU IS LACKING. FCST TEMPS IN MID 90S LOOK GOOD..ESP SYR WITH
AN OVERNGT MIN OF 80. WILL BACK OFF ON WIND FCST SLGTLY AS 850 FLO
ARND 30 KTS WHICH IS SAME AS YESTERDAY AND 850 FLO NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS RDG WILL CONT TO BUILD. 21Z RUC SHOWS 850 WINDS ARND
25 KTS. ZNS OUT.
.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES
FXUS61 KOKX 051323 ny
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
NOT MUCH IF ANY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO GSO
OR MHX SOUNDING THIS MORNING UNFORTUNATELY... BUT RNK SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INSUFFICIENT PWS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF ZONES.
BEST SPOT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LEE
TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK UPPER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST RUC. TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY... SO
CURRENTLY FORECASTED HIGHS LOOK GOOD. CONTINUE WITH HEAT ADVISORY AS
IS. WARM SPOT OF RDU ALREADY HAS A HEAT INDEX OF 98.
.RDU...HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
HARTFIELD
********** NOTICE OF CHANGE JULY 15, 1999 AT 900 AM *****************
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION(SFD) BECOMES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD)
AFOS/NOAA WEATHER WIRE ID RDUSFDRDU RDUAFDRAH
WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID FXUS72 KRDU FXUS62 KRAH
********************************************************************
FXUS62 KILM 051402 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
LEE SIDE TROF SHOWING UP NICELY THIS MORNING WEST OF A RALEIGH TO
CHARLOTTE LINE. HIGHEST PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING
HAS DRIFTED WEST TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ALOFT BUT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THROUGH AFTERNOON
LEAVING FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY. MEANTIME WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THIS PERIPHERY AND INTO FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOPING MOSITURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THE LEE
SIDE TROF AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHWARD MIGRATING SHORT WAVE OFF
OF VIRGINIA CAPES. RUC INDICATES THESE PHASE INTO ONE AREA WITH ILM
FORECAST AREA JUST BARELY ON SOUTHEAST EDGE.
VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE PRESENTLY...DEEPENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IMPRESSIVE WITH LIS OF -4 AND CAPES
OF AROUND 2500.
EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BETTER POSSIBILITY NORTH AND
WEST OF FORECAST AREA...NONETHELESS A LOW POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL
LEAVE FORECAST AS IS AS SEA BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF MID AND UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON (SOUNDING AT
CHS 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THROUGH 850 MB) WITH BEACHES ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER. DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 AWAY
FROM THE WATER. WILL NOT HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE
(ALTHOUGH THRESHOLD MET) GIVEN DURATION CONSIDERATION. NOWCAST WILL
BE ISSUED BEFORE NOON AS YESTERDAY.
CWF: WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS
OF 5 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL KEEP 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS NORTH PORTION AND 10 TO 15 KTS
SOUTH. SEAS SHOULD STAY NEAR THE 5 FOOT MARK. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NEXT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
.ILM...NONE.
DIGIORGI
FXUS62 KMHX 051343 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
NEXT 12-24HRS AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD GREAT LAKES. RIDGETOP CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN A BIT EARLIER THAN ON SUN. RUC BRINGS A WEAK PV MAX
OVER MOUNTAINS LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT.
FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH (14.5K FT) BUT A SMALL THREAT OF
STRONG WIND IS PRESENT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH CHANCE POPS
AND SEE NOT REASON TO MESS WITH THOSE. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO
TROUBLE REACHING 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 105
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH LEVELS LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY. DELGADO
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS62 KCHS 051353 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
KGSP RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ERN TN...DRIFTING S OVER THE NC
BORDER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 09Z RUC DEVELOPS PRECIP IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE RIGHT IDEA. WILL
UPDATE THE MOUNTAIN ZONES TO REMOVE THE AFTERNOON WORDING AND GO WITH
THE SCATTERED PRECIP ALL DAY.
.GSP...NONE.
MOORE
FXUS62 KCHS 050759 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
655 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER E TN VALLEY. MESOETA
AND RUC DEPICT SCT CONVECTION DURING FIRST PD. WILL UPDATE FIRST
PERIOD TO ADD 30 POPS TN ZONES.
SON
FXUS74 KMEG 050855 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1047 AM CDT MON JUL 5 1999
ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST WILL BE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS ALL ZONES. RUC IN SUPPORT OF FWC SPEEDS SO 10 TO 15 WILL COVER
IT. OTHERWISE...700MB TEMPS OF AROUND 10C SUPPORTS CURRENT POPS AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON CAP TO BECOME MINIMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVER THESE ZONES IS LOOKING GOOD.
21
FXUS64 KCRP 051537 AMD tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT MON JUL 5 1999
ATTM SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WITH LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS IN THE NW. THE FRONT SHUD CONT ITS VERY SLOW SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS ALL THE CWA BY MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES HLC CURRENT TMP IS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR 70 THIS AFTN. THE LATEST LAMP DATA HAS THE EASTERN FA WITH CAPES
APPROACHING 4000J AND FORECASTED LIS WERE MINUS SIX OVR THIS AREA.
7H/MIXR INCREASES TO NINE G/KG LATE THIS AFTN AND WITH THE CONT SLOW
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT TSRA SHUD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTN WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OVR THE E/S FA INTO TONIGHT.
THE NGM DIDNT PERFORM VERY WELL YESTERDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
ETA/AVN SOLN ALTHOUGH THE AVN MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT HI ON THE MOISTR
AT THE MOMENT.
THE LATEST RUC SHOWED MID LVL MOISTR OVR THE E/S CWA WITH A 5H/VORT
TROUGH OVR THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. TSCTS ACROS
GLD SHOW GOOD OMEGA VALUES AROUND 06Z AND THE THE QPF GRAPHIC SHOWS
BETTER THAN HALF AN INCH OVR THE E FA. SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS WERE
ACROS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...COOLR TMPS SHUD PREVAIL TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EDGES SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. THE CLOUDS
SHUD LINGER DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS
ITS RETREAT NORTWARD BY AFTN. THE AVN KEEPS THE FA IN QUITE A BIT OF
MID LVL MOISTR DURING THE DAY AND IF THIS IS THE CASE AFTN TMPS SHUD
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. BUT AS SFC WINDS VEER MORE
FROM THE SE BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE CWA...THE FA SHUD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN.
THE EXTENDED HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK AND EXPECT AFTN TEMPS WED TO RISE INTO THE 90S ONCE
AGAIN. BUT STILL A VORT LOBE REMAINS OVR SE COLORADO THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CWA
AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND AFTN TMPS MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLR. THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHUD MOVE
ACROS THE FA FRIDAY WITH COOLR AFTN TMPS AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND A 5H/RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THRU THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
.GLD...NONE.
VPAPOL
FXUS63 KICT 052018 ks