FXUS61 KRLX 171554 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1050 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003 1050 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003 HAVE DROPPED THE WARNING AS THE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON REALLY MARKS THE END OF THE STORM. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER WAVE COME THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HAVE GONE FOR A FEW INCHES...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN SOUTHER PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALL THE WAY UP FINALLY GETTING HERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. END AAR ******************************************************************* THRU TUES WINTER STRM WINDING DWN AS SFC LO TREKS UP ERN SEABRD. AGAIN A MIX BAG OF PRECIP XPCTD THIS MRNG OVR SRN CWA AND PARTS OF NRN WV AS WE LOSE ICE PRODUCTION SINCE MID AND UPR LVL MSTR DEPARTS. SNDGS STILL ALL BLO 0C BUT WITH -10C AT CLD TOP CUD SEE SOME PL/FZRA AS WT BLB IS SUB FREEZING. PLAN ON XTNDNG WSW FOR PORTIONS OF SERN OH TO NRN WV MTNS UNTIL 4PM AND KILL IT ELSW. H7 LO AND DEFORMATION ZN SETS UP OVR SERN OH...SO XPCT HIGHEST SN AMNTS THERE TDY WITH A INCH OR TWO LWR IN THE MTNS...SINCE UPSLOPE FLO TAKES SHAPE LT IN THE DAY. TNGT TAPER POPS OFF SW-NE...CUD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AS MID LVL WV TRAVERSES FA. TUES LLVL MSTR HANGS TUFF WITH W/NW FLO...SCT SW-- OR RW-- PSBL. SHARP GRADIENT BTWN MAXES HTS-CRW TO PKB-CKB THE NXT FEW DAYS...FAVORED WRM NMBRS TONIGHT GVN OVC CONDS. COOLER NMBRS TUES ESP N WITH SNOW PACK AND NOT A STG WAA PUSH IN THE BL. STRENGTHENING MID FEB SUN SHUD HELP LWR 40S BE REALIZED OVR THE SRN CWA. TUESDAY NIGHT ON... CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WEDNESDAY. MODELS NOW LOOKING COLDER WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM...NOT A SURPRISE AND ACCEPTED...GIVEN ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED PER SNOW/ICE PACK LEFT BY CURRENT EVENT. SO FAR LOOKS LIKE LIGHT EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THURSDAY AND NIXING POPS AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME. UKMET ODD MODEL OUT...STILL SHOWING EXTRA SHORT WAVE THURSDAY...OUT AHEAD OF MAIN EVENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A SLOW DECREASE AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND COLDER AIR BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND POPS NOT FAR FROM NEW MEX. .RLX... WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY FOR ZONES WVZ009>011... WVZ019>020...WVZ030>032...WVZ039>040. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY FOR ZONES WVZ046>047. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ066>067... OHZ075>076...OHZ084. 99/TRM ******************************************************************* 710 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003 GETTING MIXED PRECIP A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL BE RUNNING AN EARLY UPDATE...ADDING FREEZING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING. ALSO WILL BE CUTTING BACK SNOW TOTALS APPROPRIATELY. CL ******************************************************************* 443 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003 ...TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...BUT GENERAL IDEAS REMAIN. LOOKING FOR ABOUT .25 TO .50 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH...SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX IN THE MIDDLE WITH A BIT MORE ICE ACCUMULATION...AND RAIN TO A LATER MIX TO THE SOUTH. STILL COULD GET AN ADDITIONAL 6-8 INCHES ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS...STORM TOTALS THERE STILL COULD GET TO THREE TO FOUR FEET. ALL WINTER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES REMAIN INTACT. ALLOWED FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE WITH MIXED PRECIP AND LOW QPF EXPECTED. CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW MAY NEVER OCCUR TO THE FAR SOUTH ON MONDAY...SOME COULD SEE CHANGEOVER BACK TO RAIN AS TEMPS INCH ABOVE FREEZING. ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS MONSTER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. MORE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IN THE MIDDLE...BUT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WIN AT THE VERY END AS H850 ZERO LINE FINALLY MAKES SOME HEADWAY. ...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG STORM SYSTEM FINALLY WINDING DOWN AS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL COME THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ETA IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. SO...IN ANY EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AND MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT...LEADING TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME SNOW COMES BACK ACROSS THE AREA. CL/JMV ******************************************************************* 1034 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003 ISSUED MORNING UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. FORECAST ON TRACK..PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET AT THE OFFICE WITH COLD AIR FINALLY WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IMPRESSIVE SOUNDING TREND AT RNK...6 AND 18Z RUNS MOST HELPFUL AND APPRECIATED. TRM