FXUS61 KALY 202252 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 550 PM EST MON JAN 20 2003 UPDATED WORKZONES OUT. .DISC...WILL SEND ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE AS THE LAKE BANDS HAVE FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SO WE WILL CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WE STILL HAVE BLOWING SNOW BIG TIME OUT THERE BUT WILL HANDLE THAT LOCALLY. THE BAND HAS BECOME SINGULAR AGAIN AND HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CATSKILLS. WE THINK IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND NOT GIVE ANYONE SPOT THERE ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE SITUATION...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT HAS TO CLOSELY MONSTER THAT SITUATION. WE STILL EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO LOWER AND FINALLY BREAK UP THE BAND. NO OTHER CHANGES TO ANY AREAS OR LATER PERIODS. .HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. (AFD) .ALY...WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>043-048>054-058>061-064>066. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR VTZ014-015. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR MAZ001. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR CTZ001. HWJIV _____________________________________________________________________ **************PREVIOUS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION***************** WORKZONES OUT. ZONES OUT BY 400 PM. .DISC...ACCORDING TO NYSPIN REPORTS THE MOHAWK VALLEY (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND POINTS WEST) ARE GETTING POUNDED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND EXTENSIVE BLOWING AS WELL AS DRIFTING SNOW. MANY ROADS ARE SHUT DOWN AS FAR EAST AS AMSTERDAM! CURRENTLY THE LAKE PLUME EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO VERMONT...BUT THUS FAR...HAS LITERALLY STOPPED AT THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND WAS SOMEHOW PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD BACK OVER SARATOGA COUNTY. SCATTERED LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE PROBLEM IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOW HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN IN THE MOHAWK...SINCE THERE IS SOME MUCH OF IT ON THE GROUND AND IT IS BLOWING SO MUCH. SINCE THE BAND IS STILL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...WE WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WARNINGS GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE ACCUMULATIONS AS ADVERTISED. WILL HIT THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES A LITTLE HARDER THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO LOWER TO WELL BELOW 5KFT LATER TONIGHT...AND HOPEFULLY WILL PUT THE KABASH ON THE LAKE GUNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL MIGHT BE SOME FLURRIES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT. ALSO...HAD TO POLISH OFF THE OLD (ACTUALLY NEW WIND CHART) AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF OUR CWA...EXCEPT A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE TRANSCONTINENTAL SIBERIAN EXPRESS IS IN TOWN AND IT WILL STAY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHAT WILL MAKE IT WORSE THAN THIS WEEKEND/S DEEP BLAST...IS THE WIND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SET UP ANCHOR...WHILE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS. THEN...A POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND BOMB WELL OFF THE COAST...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR AND WIND FOR THU AND FRI. LATER WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SHOULD NOT GET US...THE UPPER FEATURE MIGHT (THOUGH IT MIGHT BE MOISTURE STARVED). SO...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY CREST OVER THE REGION. BY THAT TIME...IT SHOULD HAVE MODERATED SOME AND THE WIND WILL FINALLY SLACKEN. BY SUNDAY...WE FINALLY MIGHT SEE SOME WAA AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...WHICH COULD GIVE US A LITTLE SNOW...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A BREAK IN THE DEEP FREEZE. THE STRONG +PNA ACTION IS FORECAST TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT (BUT NOT DISAPPEAR) TEMPERATURES MIGHT REACH SEASONABLE LEVELS AND POSSIBLY THE FREEZING MARK...BY NEXT MONDAY. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MAV NOS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT A BLEND OF THEM ON WEDNESDAY. .HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...KEEPING AN ICE ON THE ICE JAM AT PRATTSVILLE. NO REAL CHANGE. OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS AS EVERYTHING REMAINS FROZEN SOLID AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. .ALY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>40 WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>043-048>054-058>061-064>066. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR VTZ014-015. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR MAZ001. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR CTZ001.