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January 21, 2009: Did you know a solar flare can
make your toilet stop working?
That's
the surprising conclusion of a NASA-funded study by the National
Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding
Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report,
experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech
society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed
by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing
is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.
Right:
Auroras over Blair, Nebraska, during a geomagnetic storm in
May 2005. Photo credit: Mike Hollingshead/Spaceweather.com.
The
problem begins with the electric power grid. "Electric
power is modern society's cornerstone technology on which
virtually all other infrastructures and services depend,"
the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad
space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic
storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers
at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling
power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and
spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic
power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when
six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours: image.
According
to the report, power grids may be more vulnerable than ever.
The problem is interconnectedness. In recent years, utilities
have joined grids together to allow long-distance transmission
of low-cost power to areas of sudden demand. On a hot summer
day in California, for instance, people in Los Angeles might
be running their air conditioners on power routed from Oregon.
It makes economic sense—but not necessarily geomagnetic sense.
Interconnectedness makes the system susceptible to wide-ranging
"cascade failures."
To
estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John
Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great
geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents
as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm,
and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found
more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and
130 million people without power. The loss of electricity
would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water
distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods
and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning,
sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on."
"The
concept of interdependency," the report notes, "is
evident in the unavailability of water due to long-term outage
of electric power--and the inability to restart an electric
generator without water on site."
Above:
What if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of
vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse
encircled. A state-by-state map of transformer vulnerability
is also available: click
here. Credit: National Academy of Sciences.
The
strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event
of August-September 1859, named after British astronomer Richard
Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare with
his unaided eye while he was projecting an image of the sun
on a white screen. Geomagnetic activity triggered by the explosion
electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting
their telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights spread as
far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains
were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing
breakfast because they thought it was morning. Best estimates
rank the Carrington Event as 50% or more stronger than the
superstorm of May 1921.
"A
contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause
… extensive social and economic disruptions," the report
warns. Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts
and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation,
banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected.
Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of
the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online
fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out
multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months
to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone
could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs
of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few
TARPs.
Above:
A web of interdependencies makes the modern economy especially
sensitive to solar storms. Source: Dept. of Homeland Security.
[Larger
image]
What's
the solution? The report ends with a call for infrastructure
designed to better withstand geomagnetic disturbances, improved
GPS codes and frequencies, and improvements in space weather
forecasting. Reliable forecasting is key. If utility and satellite
operators know a storm is coming, they can take measures to
reduce damage—e.g., disconnecting wires, shielding vulnerable
electronics, powering down critical hardware. A few hours
without power is better than a few weeks.
NASA
has deployed a fleet of spacecraft to study the sun and its
eruptions. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO),
the twin STEREO probes, ACE, Wind and others are on duty 24/7.
NASA physicists use data from these missions to understand
the underlying physics of flares and geomagnetic storms; personnel
at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center use the findings,
in turn, to hone their forecasts.
At
the moment, no one knows when the next super solar storm will
erupt. It could be 100 years away or just 100 days. It's something
to think about the next time you flush.
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Author: Dr.
Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA
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