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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/14/08 0130Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0115Z KUSSELSON

NOAA AMSU:0010Z

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LOCATION...HAWAII...

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ATTN WFOS...HFO...

ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...

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EVENT...DRY AIR STILL NUDGING EAST AND NUDGING MOIST BAND EAST INTO

OAHU...

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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ON LATEST AMSU PW LOOP THRUST OF DRY

AIR/LOWER PW VALUES WAS POINTING TO 23N/162.5 NORTH WHERE PW VALUE HAS

LOWERED TO 0.8".  AT THE SAME TIME ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE ESE PW VALUES

WITH BAROCLINIC BAND WRE CLOSE TO 1.9".  THE DRY PUSH IS REAL BUT A THE

SAME TIME THE INCRD PW MOISTURE VALUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS REAL AS WELL

AND PW GRADIENT HAS SHARPENED MEANING HVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE,

EVEN INCR FURTHER AS BEST PART OF THE BAND NUDGES OVER TO OAHU NEXT

SEVERAL HRS.  FURTHER EVIDENCE FOR THE DRY PUSH IS JET HAS SHIFTED EAST

TO NOW 175W FROM THE DATELINE EARLIER AND RIDGE IN WATER VAPOR HAD NOW

NUDGED PAST THE DATELINE...A SIGN OF MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS...BUT SLOW.

OVER THE LOWER 48...ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...A PW

SIGNATURE WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SIGNATURE LIKE THIS WOULD EVOKE A CAUTION

BOTH FOR LOCALLY HVY FF PRODUCING RAINS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER.

BATTLE STILL RAGES BETWEEN DRY/LOWER PW PUSH FROM POINTS IN THE EAST

PACIFIC EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND DRY/LOWER PW VALUES UPSTREAM MENTIONED

ABOVE AND PW PLUME/FRONTAL BAND TAKING ON A CHARACTERISTIC S SHAPE OR

NEGATIVE TILT...SO NOT SURE IF BAND WILL STALL AGAIN OVER SAY OAHU OR

KEEP DRIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT MORE TO CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY

MORNING...BUT ALWAY GOOD TO KEEP YOUR GUARD UP FOR ANY SLOW DOWN THAT

COULD KEEP HVY RAIN GOING ALL NIGHT IN OAHU.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...SATELLITE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC WILL BE POSTED TO

HOME PAGE SHORTLY AT ADDRESS BELOW

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.

....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....

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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:

HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/

...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/

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LAT...LON 2410 15973 2149 15583 1747 15812 1936 16158

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