EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 220 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001 CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH ASSOCIATED DRYING BEHIND IT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AWAY FROM THE AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH THERE WAS SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A LITTLE HEATING...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE. WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS HAD THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN SO FAR. OVERNIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS EVENING. WITH SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING BEHIND THE TROUGH...DO NOT PLAN TO RENEW THE FLOOD WATCH. WEEKEND...BARRY NOT FORECAST TO MOVE A WHOLE LOT...SO BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELY POPS THAT THE FWCS INDICATE. NEXT WEEK...AVN STILL TAKING DRYING THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W AND 75W AND ROTATING IT AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD LOWER DEEP MOISTURE VALUES AND BRING US BACK TO A MORE CLIMO REGIME WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. MARINE...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENT FLOW INDICATED OFF CANAVERAL WITH BUOYS SHOWING WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAKER GRADIENT ELSEWHERE...SO WILL START OFF WITH 15 KNOT FORECAST NORTH HALF BUT OTHERWISE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD BE OKAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND. TREND CONTINUES FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER AS TROPICAL SYSTEM EDGES AWAY AND ATLANTIC RIDGE NUDGES IN BEHIND IT. WILL TREND WINDS DOWNWARD TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. DAB WT 072/086 072/087 073 4636 MCO WT 072/087 072/088 074 4636 MLB WT 072/086 073/087 074 4636 .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1000 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001 HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM TODAY AND EXPAND AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS BASED LARGELY ON NEARLY SATURATED 12Z SOUNDINGS WITH PWATS OF 2.19 AT MIA AND 2.36 AT EYW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE CONTINUING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL ALSO RAISE POPS TO 100 PERCENT AGAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BASED ON HANDLING OF PRECIPITATION AREAS BY WSETA MESOETA AND RUC MODELS SHOWING HEAVIER RAINS AGAIN BEING DISPLACED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. .MIA...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES TODAY. $$ fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 935 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001 WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTH FLORIDA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT FLOW EXTENDING FROM WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TO NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. ALSO SUPPORTING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WAS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH SATURATED ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING BUT UPPER LEVEL FORCING DIMINISHING AS TROUGH DROPS SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA AND JET DIVERGENCE LIFTS OUT. PLAN ON THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS... SOME SLIGHT SUNSHINE/HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LIKELY POPS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AS TS BARRY DRIFTS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW CELLS MAY SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THEY MOVE NORTH. SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS LAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING OCCURS...BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE ADDITIONAL FLOODING...SINCE IT WILL TAKE LITTLE TO AGGRAVATE PROBLEMS IN THE SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE PLANNED. MARINE...RATHER LARGE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WINDS WERE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS ABOUT 5 FEET NEAR SHORE...A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. DO NOT INTEND TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST. .MLB...FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR MARTIN...ST LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 909 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2001 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL NICELY ACROSS THE AREA AS SKIES ARE CLRING OUT. WITH SKY CLRG OUT...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AS DWPTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. MESOETA/RUC IS SHOWING SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO CEN IL TNGT FROM THE EAST...BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S. SO WILL UPDATE ZONES TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE WRN SECTIONS. WILL ALSO TWEEK TEMPS UP A BIT AS SFC MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 70. .ILX...NONE. KETCHAM $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 200 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2001 MINIMAL CHC FOR PCPN TNGT THEN MAINLY STATUS QUO INTO THE EXTENDED PD. WILL NOT EXTEND THE HEAT ADVSRY. FEEL WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THREE HOUR CRITERIA MOST AREAS TODAY...AND WITH A BIT DRYER AIR FCST INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY...WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS IS WILL BE A DAY TO DAY EVALUATION OF CONDITIONS...AND IF NEEDED...MAY BE ADDED. SHWRS/TSTMS FRMG ON OUTFLOW BNDRY. MVMT PER PROFILERS SHOWS A SOUTH DRIFT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MVMT. UPPER WAVE MVG THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING PER LATEST RUCII MAY BRING A BIT MORE PERSISTENCE TO CONVECTION THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BY DIURNAL MODE...BUT AREAL EXTENT ON CURRENT FCST HANDLES THIS NICELY. SO NO CHGS THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE WDLY SCT CONVECTION TNGT...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FCST INTO THE EXTENDED PD. .TOP...NONE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1110 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VIS SATELLITE/METARS SHOW PATCHY MID CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. CURRENT CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO ALIGN WELL WITH AN AREA OF WEAK 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z RUC/ETA. MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGH...AND CURRENT FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY IS STILL REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE CWA. WITH WEAK GRADIENT...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES FROM BOTH SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN TO BRING WINDS ONSHORE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE WATER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. .MQT...NONE. JHB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 840 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001 SHRA/TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SLOW MVMNT/TRAINING AND HIGH WARM CLD DEPTHS CONTRIBUTING TO THIS. NO FLOODING PRBLMS REPORTED THUS FAR ALTHO I-81 HAD TO BE CLOSED BRIEFLY DUE TO WATER ON THE ROAD WHICH RESULTED IN AN MVA EARLIER THIS AFTN NEAR TULLY IN SRN ONONDAGA CNTY. ANOTHER STORM WHICH BRIEFLY DISPLAYED VILS OF 50-55 DOWNED SOME TREES IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVNG. NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACRS THE RGN AS EVIDENCED IN 88D AND SAT DATA. MAIN FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N AND WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING SWD TNGT. RUC AND WATER VAPOR SHOW ANOTHER S/WV PASSING BY LATER TNGT. THINK ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG AS THE EVNG PROGRESSES BUT ALSO XPCT SCT ACTIVITY TO PERSIST MUCH IF NOT ALL OF TNGT. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RAINFALL RATES...SPCLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY AMTS THIS AFTN. .BGM...NONE. BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1020 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2001 HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FF WATCH TO SERN ZONES WHERE CONVECTION IS LIGHTING UP AT THE MOMENT. RUC KEEPS THIS AREA UNDER STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH 2-4" OF RAIN HAVING ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME URBANIZED AREAS...HAVE TO BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS HIGHEST THERE. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT A POTENT ONE WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL UP IN THE 60S EVEN AFTER SO CALLED FROPA. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WE WILL SEE A TAD MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN ZONES TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL ADVECTIONS REMAIN WEAK AND DRYING ALMOST NON EXISTENT. WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY UPSTREAM THIS EVENING...THINK CHANCES ARE LOW...BUT MAY BE WORTH MENTIONING. OVERALL PATTERN TAKES A SMALL BREAK FROM THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER HGHTS THRU THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WE RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISING +2/+3 STD DEV HGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MID LEVELS BY TUES EDGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NERN US. THIS SHUD ASSURE FINE SUMMER TEMPS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WHILE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP STAY FAIRLY LOW ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE. .CTP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THRU 4 AM. LA CORTE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 958 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001 06Z ETA/AVN AND LATEST RUC ALL INSISTENT ON A RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRY 12Z CHS SOUNDING AND THE LOW THETA-E AIR PARKED ACROSS OUR CWA...THE PRESENCE OF A MID LVL SHEAR AXIS...COOLER TEMPS ALF AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP INDICATE WDLY SCT AFTN SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS ARE STILL PSBL. SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER FLORIDA...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE GREATER TO THE S OF THE ALTAMAHA. WILL UPDATE ZFPCHS TO INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY AFTN GEORGIA COAST WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES. CWF: ONLY MINOR INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS ON THIS UPDATE. TRENDS STILL OK. FCSTID = 24 CHS 87 70 88 72 / 20 10 30 30 SAV 88 69 90 70 / 20 20 40 30 CHL 86 73 86 75 / 20 10 30 30 NBC 87 71 89 71 / 20 10 30 30 RBW 88 68 90 70 / 20 10 30 30 .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. RVT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 944 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2001 RUC AND ETA MDLS SHOW A S/W RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SD TONIGHT WHILE A S/W TROUGH LIFTS NE INTO W AND NC SD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEAN RH WITH THIS S/W TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG CAP. THIS S/W WAS ONLY BRINGING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO W SD LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO SPREAD INTO C SD TONIGHT. NE SD AND WC MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH HIGH DWPTS ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN AND WITH LIGHT SE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM ACROSS THIS AREA. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OUT OF THE 70S BY SAT MRNG. UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE SOME CHANGES. .ABR...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT OVER ENTIRE CWA WEST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM BRITTON SOUTH TO CLARK. HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT EAST OF A LINE FROM BRITTON TO CLARK ON SATURDAY. MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA 930 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001 LATEST SATELITE SHOWS SOLID MID DECK ALRDY TO A EZF TO FVX LINE...AND INCHING EWD...WENT MO CLDY VA PIED...BCMG MO CLDY LATE N CENT VA. 18Z MESO-ETA DOES BEST OF CURRENT MODELS IN RSLVNG THIS. ANTHR THING THE 18Z MESO-ETA HAS PICKED UP ON BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS IS THE STRGTH OF THE VORT OVR SW PA...IT LUKS HLTHY ON WATER VAPOR...DON'T KNOW IF ITS 10 VORT UNITS STRNGR THAN ANY OTHER MODEL PER THE MESO ETA...BUT IT APPRS STRNGR THEN THE 12 VORT UNIT DIAGNOSED BY 12Z ETA AND RUC. AS A RSLT...PRECIP MVNG SE FRM SW PA/WRN MD...WL LKLY HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THEN DECIPTED IN 12Z MODELS...AS THE VORT TAKES LONGER TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES OF ENGY...SO ADDED HIDDEN 20 POP OVRNGT TO VA PIED AND N CENT VA GROUPINGS. AS FOR TEMPS..WITH MID & HIGH CLDS MVNG INTO PIEDMONT...BUMPED UP TO UPPER 60S THERE...& W/ CLDS MVNG EVENTUALLY OVR N CENT VA...TWEAKED TO M-U 60S. HERE AT THE OFFICE ALRDY 70 & FALLING...SO LWRD FCST TO MID 60S HERE. ON THE ERN SHR...ALRDY 70 AT SBY...AND W/ RECENT TRENDS OF TEMPS FALLING BLW GUIDANCE THERE...LWRD LOWS TO ARND 60S...HWVR ALNG MD & VA ESHR...W/ S WIND STAYING ARND 10 MPH...TEMPS WL STAY ARND 70 THANKS TO OCEAN INFLUENCE. OCEAN CITY ONLY GOT TO 77 TODAY...& W/ SIMILAR S FLOW XPCTD TOMORROW W/ CLD CVR MVNG IN LKLY WONT GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT TOMORROW. MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES...LOW RIP CURENT THREAT FOR TOMORROW AS NE SWELLS DIMINISH. .AKQ... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MALOIT va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001 MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE IS THE TEMPS FOR TDA AND TNGT. A CUTOFF LOW CONT TO DIG OFF THE S ATL CST. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WAS DIGGING OFF THE PAC NW IN A LONGWAVE TROF. TRAPPED BTWN THESE IS A RDG BUILDING OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. WV IMAGERY/RUC DEPICTING WEAK SHRTWV OVR W ONT...OVR W DKTS AND OVR W CONTDVD. MDLS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACKING OF THE PAC NW CST MID LVL LOW NWRD IN AN ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RDG. THE MDLS ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACKING OF THE SFC RDG ESE THRU LWR GRTLKS...AND THE TIMING OF THE CDFNT FM RCKY ACRS N PLAINS INTO THE CWA ON ERY MON. SFC RDG WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVR LWR MI TDA...WHILE THE MID LVL RDG SLIDES INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR. ACYC FLOW ARND SFC RDG WILL DRAW WRM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. RDG WILL CAUSE A 4C (6F) RISE AT 925MB OVR FA TDA. SFC TRAJ PROG SHOWING AMS OVR WI YTD WILL SLIDE OVR CWA TDA AS WELL. TEMPS OVR N WI YTD GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPR 80S. MOS GUIDANCE CONCURS FOR FA TDA. ETA SHOWING AN XPC 5F RISE IN DWPNTS OVR FA TDA AS WELL. WAA IN THE MID LVL WILL FURTHER STABLIZE AMS OVR CWA TDA. 310K ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWS THIS AS WELL. AMS WILL BE VERY DRY TDA AS SFC-500MB RH WILL BE <40 PCT. INSPITE OF HI SFC DWPNTS AND WRM TEMPS...XPC ONLY SOME CS DVLP OVR FA TDA. THE NEXT WEAK SHRTWV WILL PASS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR TONGT. MID LVL RDG WILL SHOW SOME FLATTENING. MEAN SFC-500MB RH WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 40 PCT ACRS FA. 310K INSENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING ONLY WEAK LIFT ASSOC WITH THE SHRTWV. ACYS FLOW ARND THE HI OVR LWR LAKES CONT TO DRAW WARM GULF AIR INTO THE REGION OVRNGT. THE CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO BCM MORE PRONOUNCED AS IT MOV THRU THE DKTS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOCLR. WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS UP OVRNGT IN SPITE OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CDFNT WILL WORKING INTO MN ON SUN. WAA IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WILL ALSO DRAW GULF MSTR INTO AREA AND MAKE FOR A MUGGY DAY. MID LVL RDG WILL FLATTEN EVEN MORE ACRS N PLAINS AND SET UP A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACRS N PLAINS. A WEAK SHRTW WILL REACH W UP BY 00Z MON. AMS WILL START TO MOISTEN A BIT. THE MEAN SFC-H50 RH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 PCT. WAA WILL MAKE THE 925MB TEMP ANOTHER 2C WARMER. THUS RECORD HI TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN. THE CDFNT WILL FINALLY SLIDE INTO WRN UP SUN NGT IN ASSOC WITH THE MID LVL SHRTWV. THIS WILL BE SPED ALONG BY A 65KT UPR LVL JET WHICH WILL RUN ALONG THE CAN/CONUS BORDER. THUS THE FNT WILL MOV THRU FA RATHER QUICKLY AND IS NOT XPC TO DEPOSIT MUCH RA. SBCAPE WILL REACH TO ARND 1500J/KG WHICH SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW TSRA OVRNGT INTO MON ACRS CWA. WNDS XPC TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OUT OF THE W AND THUS NO SIG SHEAR XPC. COND DRY OUT ON TUE FOLLOWING THE FNT. .MQT...NONE. DLG mi FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 255 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2001 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPS AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES AS WELL AS TSRA CHANCES. OVERALL MODELS PRETTY CLOSE ON BIG PICTURE HOWEVER FAVOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA SOLUTION WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGRESSION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FROM PAC NW UPPER LOW TO FLATTEN AND PIVOT MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST THROUGH FCST PERIOD. IN THE EARLY GOING WDLY SCT TSRA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG EDGE OF CAP (+12C ISOTHERM FROM RUC ANALYSIS) TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MB AND WEAKENING. CONSIDERING ORIENTATION OF UPPER RIDGE WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF ISOLD TSRA MENTION NEEDED FOR FAR NE COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY AM. ATTM WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TO NOT SEE THE NEED. OTWS BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY. CONSIDERING H8 TEMPS AND THICKNESS TRENDS...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUN EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ATLEAST AS WARM AS YSTDY. CURRENT DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S REGION WIDE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND LOW LEVEL SFC FEATURES ALONG WITH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION VERY HUMID CONDTIONS TO CONTINUE. WITH RESULTING HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED 100 WILL CONTINUE WITH ADVISORY TODAY. ONLY SAVING GRACE WILL BE THAT WITH SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENING WILL SOME WIND. SHORT WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MB WITH STRONGER WAVE ON ITS HEELS. IN RESPONSE HIGH PLAINS SFC LOW TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. WITH HEAT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREA WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND AREA LIKELY TO BE CAPPED WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AOB 100F FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30 TO 40KTS BUT AGAIN MAIN CONVERGENCE NORTH OF BORDER ALONG WITH 850MB WAA. AT THIS TIME IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE LIKELY AREAS WOULD BE OVR NW ND IN CONVERGENCE AROUND SFC LOW AND ALONG E-W BOUNDARY ALONG INL BORDER. AS RESULT WILL MAINTAIN POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH (SEE SPC DAY 1 DISCUSSION). IN SPITE OF SULTRY CONDITIONS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED WILL NOT PUSH HEAT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT. STRONGER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN RIDGE AND PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH INSTABILITY BUT CAPPING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN FACTOR WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF FROPA. HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AND WITH FROPA PROGGED THROUGH FA BY 00Z WE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING. HOWEVER CONSIDERING HIGH INSTABILITY AND SPC DAY TWO DISCUSSION WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY WITH FROPA AND CARRY EVENING TSRA GROUP FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY. DECENT THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMP DROP BEHIND BOUNDARY. BASED ON ETA TIMING BOUNDARY THROUGH RRV AROUND 18Z. MAY NOT SEE A SIG DROP IN TEMPS HOWEVER SHOULD SEE DECREASING DEW POINTS WITH FROPA. FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAT ADVISORY LOOK TO BE FROM RRV EAST. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE BASED ON TIMING DIFFERENCES OF MODELS ON FROPA. BASED ON 00Z AVN NO CHANGES NEEDED TO EXTENDED. .FGF...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY. VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001 MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FCST IS TEMPS. WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFYING RDG AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH BLDG HGTS EWD INTO THE U.P. 12Z RUC AND ETA FCST RDG HGTS CONTINUING TO BLD THIS AFT WITH DNVA AND 700-300 MB Q-VECT DIV SPREADING OVR THE AREA. AS A RESULT OF RDGG AND ASSOC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE K-INDICES DROP TO TEENS TO AROUND 20 THIS AFT PER 12Z ETA AND RUC...THIS IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOWING VERY DRY AOA 700 MB. SFC HI PRES OVER FA WILL RESULT IN DVLPG LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH DRY...WARM ALF ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. DRY AND SUNNY FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD. INLAND TEMP FCST OF UPPER 80S EAST HALF TO AROUND 90 WEST HALF ALSO LOOKS ON TARGET BASED ON 12Z AREA SNDGS AND 850 MB FCST TEMPS OF 18-20C. THUS...NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1115 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2001 HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD IN WRN ZONES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. THE REST OF THE AREA MORE MARGINAL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID. THE LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS SWRN MN WITH A WARM FRONT/DRY LINE PUSHING IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF STORMS. .MSP...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA-WILLMAR- FAIRMONT LINE. SCOTT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001 FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE BURNING OFF/MIXING OUT RATHER QUICKLY. WILL GO A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SKY COVER AND INCREASE THE MAX TEMPS COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNINGS BUF AND ALY SOUNDINGS BOTH HAD SOME SENSOR PROBLEMS WITH SOME BAD T AND TD POINTS NOTED. TRYING TO ADJUST FOR THESE PROBLEMS...AND LOOKING AT THE OKX SOUNDING AS WELL AS RUC AND 06Z ETA SOUNDINGS YIELDS CAPES IN THE 1700-2000 RANGE AND LIS -4 TO -5 WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND SURFACE TDS AROUND 67. DRIER AIR PER THE WMW AND DTX SOUNDING WILL BE TRYING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT UP THERE WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. I DID DECIDE TO KEEP RW/TRW IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE FINGER LAKES REGION WAS THE FIRST TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT IS SITTING NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE 00 AND ESPECIALLY 06Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE (ESPECIALLY VIA THE SURFACE BASED LI FIELDS) THAT THIS FRONT NEVER REALLY GETS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE NYS THRUWAY...ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT IN PLACE. TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY STABILIZES DUE TO MID LEVEL WARMING. I THINK REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...TERRAIN...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE EDGES OF THE DISSIPATING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR AT FORCING CONVECTION THAN THE DYING FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED PULSERS - UP AND DOWN REAL FAST. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND COULD DUMP A VERY QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN A 20-30 MINUTE PERIOD. WALDSTREICHER ...EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION... THE TRUE COLD FRONT STILL REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM CENTRAL NY AND WAS ANALYZED ON THE FAR LEADING EDGE OF THE DWPT GRADIENT WHICH WAS BASICALLY ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LK ONT. FRONT THEN DIPS SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHORE OF LK ERIE WHERE DRIER AIR IS EVIDENT OVER SWRN ONTARIO. WV LOOP SHOWS WELL DEFINED S/WV TROF MOVG JUST NORTH OF NY STATE ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...AND A SECOND WEAKER WAVE ON IT'S HEELS. MESOSCALE BNDRYS ARE TOO NUMEROUS TO COUNT EVERYWHERE AROUND THE FCST AREA WITH ONLY A FEW OF WHAT'S REALLY OUT THERE NOTED ON BOTH KBGM AND KTYX RADARS. AREA REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE EVEN AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA POPPING UP ALONG THE MANY BNDRYS...AND A MORE SIG CLUSTER OF TSRA JUST NORTH OF ONEIDA CO ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE S/WV IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF HIGH INSTAB AND CONVG ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. MDLS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UNFOLDING SYNOPTIC SITUATION WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE FRONTAL POSN. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE TODAY AND TONIGHT BASED ON THE SHARPENING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BNDRY AND WE SHOULD GET THE DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FOR SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FEATURE AND THE NUMEROUS OTHER LLVL TRIGGERS IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TODAY. AIRMASS WL REMAIN UNSTABLE TO A DEGREE ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA...BUT REALLY ONLY THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHWEST AREAS. ALL DAY THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST YOU MOVE. POPCORN CONVECTION FIRING EVEN BACK ACROSS FINGER LKS AHEAD OF S/WV...BUT CURRENT FCST FOR SAT IS DRY. WITH WAVES ALOFT PASSING BY AND FRONT DRIFTING THRU...FEEL I NEED TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST A CHC FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA UNTIL MORE STABLE AIR CAN FILTER IN THIS AFTN PER LOWERING K INDICES AND STABILIZING LI'S. THE ORGANIZED DYNAMICS (DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE... THETA-E ADVN...STRONG MOIST CONVG) ARE NOT AS PRESENT AS YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD WL BE LESS OVERALL EVEN WHERE THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS TAKES PLACE OVER THE SERN HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS ZONE SPLITS AND FCST LOOKS REASONABLE SO WL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEEKS TO PRECIP WORDING AND NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM SCT NATURE OF THINGS. WEAK WINDS AND MODERATE CAPES WL HOLD SVR CONCERNS IN CHECK...BUT ISOLD FLOOD PROBLEMS COULD MATERIALIZE IF CELLS MANAGE TO HIT THE HOT SPOTS FROM YESTERDAY. OF THE FEW AREAS WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL...THE ONE TO REALLY WATCH TODAY WL BE SRN PARTS OF THE WY VALLEY AND POCONOS IN PA WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION IS A BETTER BET. A LTL EARLY AT THIS POINT TO HOIST A WATCH FOR THIS THOUGH DUE TO EXTREME UNCERTAINTY. SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE END TO THE WEEKEND. THE USUAL DIRTY HIGH SCENARIO WL BE FORECAST TONIGHT WHERE SKIES MAY BRIEFLY CLEAR DURING THE EVENING THEN REFORM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. PLENTY OF ATMOS DRYING FOR SUNDAY...SO WL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER THE FOG LIFTS. LOOKING AT THE H85 TEMPS...ATMOS WL REMAIN WARM EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO GUIDANCE GOING WARMER SUNDAY THAN TODAY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDL SUNSHINE. .BGM...NONE. BREWSTER ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1045 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001 UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE...JUST MADE MINOR WORDING AND POP ADJUSTMENTS. BOTH RUC40 AND 6Z ETA KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF SW PA...MD...AND NRN WV. MSTR CONV VCNTY FNT MAY SPARK SCATTERED TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE IN AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SGFNT PREVIOUS RAINFALL...SO WL CONSIDER FLOOD WATCH THOSE AREAS. WL MAKE DECISION AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING MODEL RUN. .PBZ...NONE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1020 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2001 LOW DECK STILL ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF MID STATE AND PLATEAU. SUN SHINNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF MID STATE AND ACROSS WEST KY. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWING CLOUDS DISSIPATING AROUND LUNCH TIME EXCEPT FOR PLATEAU AND AREAS ALONG ALABAMA BORDER. BELIEVE FORECAST IS ON TRACK BUT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MAY BE DELAYED OVER THE NORTH. ANY SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY REMAINS GENERALLY SOUTH OF AREA. THE FOLLOWING DATA WAS PROCESSED FROM THE BNA SOUNDING 12Z 08/04/01 STABILITY VIL OF THE DAY 63 500 MB TEMP: -6.1 400 MB TEMP: -17.9 SHOWALTER-INDEX 01 TROPOPAUSE (MB) 131 JJ GEORGES K-INDEX 38 LAPSE RATE (DEGC/KM) 700 TO 500 MB 5.1 MILLERS TOTAL TOTALS 44 VERTICAL TOTALS 23 CROSS TOTALS 21 THICKNESSES (METERS) 1000 TO 925 680 1000 TO 850 (1300) 1409 1000 TO 700 (2840) 3044 1000 TO 500 (5400) 5753 850 TO 700 (1540) 1635 700MB TEMP 7.8 700MB WIND 020/22 MEAN WIND (DEGS/KTS) SURFACE TO 5000 FT 045/09 5000 FT TO 10000 FT 030/15 HEIGHT (KFT MSL) -20 ISOTHERM 25.8 .BNA...NONE. BOYD tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1052 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001 WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD. FRONTAL SYS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TODAY AS A S/W (AS SEEN IN H20 VAP IMAGERY) MOVES ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST. 11Z 20KM FSL RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M70S-M80S TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AT 5-10 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M-U80S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS. MID-LVLS TO REMAIN BASICALLY DRY ACRS THE FA TODAY (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER). BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACRS THE SRN FA AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TODAY. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE 0.75-1.25" FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS THE FA TODAY AS SHOWN BY RUC AND GOES-8 SOUNDER. LAPS SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY ACRS SRN VT/NRN ADIRONDACKS/SRN CHAMP VLY ATTM WITH CAPES OF 400-1500 J/KG. RUC BASICALLY AGREES WITH THIS SETUP ACRS THE FA FOR TODAY BUT KEEPS MOST OF ANY PCPN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TODAY. NOTED THAT SRN VT IN SPC GEN TSTM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND TONITE. GOES-8 VIS SAT PIX SHOW CU POPPING ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS ATTM WITH SOME LINGERING LOWER CLDS ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA. 88D MOSAIC SHOWING SOME SHRA POPPING ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL ATTM. FEEL THAT BEST CHC FOR ANY PCPN TODAY WILL CONT TO BE ACRS THIS AREA AND SRN VT. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER AND TRY AND HANDLE ANY RENEGADE TSRA WITH THE STF FOR TODAY. REST OF THE HIR TRRN SHOULD CONT TO SEE CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HAVE REGROUPED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT ABOVE THINKING ON CHC FOR CLDS/PCPN ACRS THE FA TODAY. REST OF CHANGES TO GOING ZFP COSMETIC AS NO MODEL DATA EVALUATED PAST THE TODAY PERIOD. WILL ADDRESS ANY OTHER ISSUES IN LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST (INCLUDING FOG FORMATION TONITE) IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP ASAP. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1025 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RUC SHOWS SOME STABILIZING OF ATMOSPHERE IN OHIO SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF THERE THIS AFTERNOON. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. .END/SIKORA wv EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 233 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001 LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER. WATER VAPOR LOOP OVERLAID WITH THE RUC MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST...WHILE WINDS WERE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WEST OF I 95. SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO TRIGGER LIGHTNING STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG ...ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS EXISTING STORMS BUMP INTO THE SEA BREEZE. BIG SURFACE TO 500MB DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL 1/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM GOES...MODELS MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE PICTURES IN DROPPING A VORT MAX DOWN THE PENINSULA THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SUNDAY. BARRY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE...NORTHWARD OVER THE PENINSULA THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. EXCEPT FOR ADJUSTING POPS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE. EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AND POPS TREND TOWARDS CLIMO VALUES. MARINE...TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH AND EAST WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS UNTIL THE RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TUESDAY. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS DAB TW 072/087 073/088 073 574 MCO TT 072/088 073/090 073 474 MLB TT 072/087 074/088 072 575 .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 225 PM MDT SAT AUG 4 2001 18 UTC/NOON RUC40 HAS DISTINCT SPLIT IN SHORT WAVE THROUGH FAR EAST MT INTO CENTRAL WY. COUPLE VORTICITY CENTERS...ONE OVER NORTHEAST CO AND SECOND OVER CENTRAL CO. RUC40 HAS SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF CWA AT 03 UTC/9 PM. 12 UTC RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH WAVE CLEARING CWA JUST BEFORE 06 UTC. ETA POSITION OF WAVE AT 00 UTC DOESN/T LOOK THAT BAD. RUC40 HAS LIGHT QPF OVER SOUTHEAST CORNER WY AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEB PANHANDLE IN 21-03 UTC TIMEFRAME... POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS BFF. ETA HAS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AREA FOR THIS EVENING...AVN NIL. ETA/ETA HAVE NIL QPF SUN-MON. BOTH ETA/AVN HAVE "COOL" FRONT ALONG NORTH EDGE CWA AT 24 HRS/6 AM SUN AND ALONG WY/NE/CO BORDER BY NOON SUN. BIG NEWS IS THAT UPPER HIGH NORTHERN NM/SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT DRIFTS NORTH TO SOUTHERN WY BY 48 HRS/6 AM MON...THEN STALLS. LOOKS SEASONAL WRT TO TEMPS/POPS NEXT COUPLE DAYS. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN CHANGES OCCUR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TROF MOVG THRU THE NW U.S. ON WED AND THURS CAUSES HI PRES TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH...BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW ALF TO WY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE N HALF OF WY LATE WED AND THRU THE SRN PART OF THE STATE THUR MORNING. COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT. BY FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPR LVL HIGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. .CYS... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. COX/STARK wy