FXUS61 KAKQ 182049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EST TUE MAR 18 2003
   
SHORT TERM:

TON-WED: TOOK OUT POPS FM PIED TON AS ONLY PRECIP EVDNT ON RADAR IS 
IN KY AND THAT IS MVNG WNW. VERY WK MID LVL DSTRBNC MVNG INTO WEDGE 
SETTING UP ACRS CWA...ALRDY 10-15 DEG T-TD SPRD ACRS PIED AS WELL.

ETA HAS BEEN VRY CONSISTENT W/ THE BLDG IN WEDGE W/ STACKED HIGH AT 
850 AND 700 OVR SE CAN...SUPPLYNG CLD AIR FM SFC TO 700 INTO 
CWA...RATHR UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SML DIRUNAL RANGE AGAIN 
TON...AND WED...ESP W/ SOLID COLD AIR DRNG INTO CWA. NE WNDS TO 
STRNG FOR DZ...ESP W/ NW FLW ALFT.

WED NGT-THU : GOING W/ BLEND OF GFS AND ETA. BRING -RA IN AHD OF SLW 
MVNG CUTOFF FM PLNS FM W CWA TO THE BAY WED NGT W/ AREAS OF DZ WHERE 
OR WHEN THERE IS NO RA...AS OVRNG FLW SLWLY RTNS TO CWA AS 850 AND 
700 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFFSHR. FOR THU THE GULF OPENS UP TO CWA FM W 
TO E...LFTG A WRM FNT SLWLY N ACRS CWA AS IT DOES SO. RA N OF WRM 
FNT...SHRA AND TSTM S OF WRM FNT. INCRSD POPS TO LKLY FM W TO E (W 
OF BAY...JUST CHC POPS FM ALNG BAY AND ERN SHR). WM FNT DOESN'T MAKE 
IT THRU BAY BY THU AFT.

THU NGT: WM FNT CMPLTS TRK ACRS CWA OVRNGT...LKLY POPS EVRYWHRE AS 
40-50 KT 850 JET MVS THRU CWA. MOST AREAS SHLD RCV ARND .5-1" QPF 
THU NGT...W HGHR AMT POSS IN STRGR RW/TSTMS. XPCTD QPF IS < 6 AND 12 
HR FFG THOUGH..BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FRI-FRI NGT: CLD FNT APPRCHS CWA...LKLY STRDLNG IT FRI EVNG THEN 
MVNG OFFSHR BY SAT AM. UPR TRF IS NOT FAR BHND...HWVR LIMITED MOIST 
TO WRK W/ EXTNSV QPF TO E. 850 TMPS 10-13 SPPRTS TMPS IN 70S ACRS 
CWA (XCPT ERN SHR).

EXTENDED:

SAT-SUN: DRY. SAT SHLD BE WRMR THEN SUN AS 850 COLD POOL MOVES ACRS 
CWA SUN.

MON-TUE: AGREE W/ HPC AND WENT W/ ECMWF IDEA OF HVNG DITNCT SFC LW 
MVNG SLWLY NE FM GULF CST RGN IN RSPNS TO 500 L/VORT (GFS IS SIMILAR 
IN POSN TO ECMWF...JUST WASHES OUT SFC FEAT IN RESP TO MORE VIGRS 
UPR LVL FEAT MVNG ACRS GRT LKS. AS RSLT HV CHC RA MON...AND TUE AM 
NR BAY AND ATLC.
 
MARINE: SCA EVRYWHR BUT SND AS WNDS PU FM NE AS WEDGE DVLPS. WINDS 
SLCKN WED NGT DMNG SEAS BNTH SCA BY THU AM. NXT CHC SCA FRI AHD OF 
PLNS SYS.
    
FCSTID = 33

SBY 58 41 47 37 / 10 10 10 10
OXB 53 40 47 40 / 10 10 10 10
ECG 61 46 52 47 / 20 10 10 10
ORF 58 43 50 44 / 10 10 10 10
PHF 61 44 51 44 / 10 10 10 30
AKQ 62 44 51 44 / 10 10 10 30
RIC 62 43 51 42 / 10 10 10 30
FVX 63 43 50 40 / 20 10 10 40
   
.AKQ...
.MD...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS.
.NC...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS N CURRITUCK BCH LGT.
.VA...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS AND CHES BAY.

MALOIT