000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180226 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW INCREASED CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT...35 KT...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB... AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THUS THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST A LA THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THIS IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST...BUT LESS THAN INDICATED BY THE GFDL. SHOULD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVE ITS TREK OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND REGIME. SHIPS...USING THE GFS MODEL FORECAST WINDS...SHOWS 30-40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR BY DAYS 4-5. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR RE-STRENGTHENING. INITIAL MOTION IS 055/04. THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS PREDICTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ADRIAN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL TRACK. A BIG CONCERN WITH ADRIAN IS ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THAT REGION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 10.3N 94.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 10.7N 93.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 11.4N 92.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 12.3N 91.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 13.5N 89.5W 60 KT...NEAR COAST 72HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 85.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 20.5N 80.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 74.0W 30 KT $$