PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU JAN 26 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 01 - 05 2006 NOTE: FORECAST RETRANSMITTED TO CORRECT THE 6-10 DAY PRECIP FORECAST MAP, WHICH WAS A DUPLICATE OF YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. ORIGINAL MAP WAS SOMEHOW LOST, SO HAD TO REDRAW IT AND REPROCESS FOR TRANSMITTAL.FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FEATURES OVER THE CONUS... BUT THERE IS NOTICEABLY MORE SPREAD AMONG THE SOLUTIONS THAN THERE WAS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MOST KEEP A LOW AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST... RESULTING IN A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE / EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN. THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST... BUT ITS AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS INDICATED TO JOIN WITH THE MUCH LARGER AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER PREDICTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC... RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. A VERY DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF ALASKA... ALTHOUGH THE RETROGRESSION THAT HAS BEEN PREDICTED ALL WEEK FOR THE WEEK TWO PERIOD IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW IN MOST OF THE MODEL PROGS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ANOTHER STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES... WITH A STRONG TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN RUSSIA SOUTHWARD TO THE MIDEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN GIVES A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO.... BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THAT PART OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN NEAR ALASKA AND THE BERING STRAIT DO NOT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG ARCTIC HIGHS THAT ARE LIKELY TO BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE CONUS IN THE NEAR FUTURE. A ZONALLY ORIENTED POLAR JETSTREAM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ARCTIC AIR LOCKED UP IN ALASKA AND NORTHERN CANADA DURING THE PERIOD... CONTINUING THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURE REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS... ALTHOUGH THE WEAK TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CREATING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH. MOST OF ALASKA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MARITIME FLOW... ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION OF THE COLD MAY BEGIN ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF THE SOUTH COAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BARELY ABOVE AVERAGE... A WEAK 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE MODELS' SOLUTIONS AND TOOLS BASED ON THEM... ALONG WIT A GOOD MATCH WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE BEST PAST ANALOGS... OFFSET BY SOMEWHAT INCREASED DIFFERENCES IN SOME SOLUTIONS AND HINTS FROM SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT A PATTERN CHANGE COULD BEGIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND MOST OF THE OTHER GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE CONUS FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... WITH A TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTER REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER... DEVELOPMENTS UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COULD CONTINUE TO COOL BECAUSE THE BOTTOM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AND A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST... ALL OF WHICH ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN. DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION IS INDICATED FOR MANY OF THE FEATURES AT HIGH LATITUDES... INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS PREDICTED TO RETROGRADE TO THE BERING SEA AND EXTREME EASTERN SIBERIA BY THE WEEK TWO PERIOD. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IS STILL PREDICTED TO BE PRESENT BUT IS INDICATED TO WEAKEN WHILE THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE DAVIS STRAIT AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG... POSSIBLY RETROGRADING A BIT TO HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING OVER NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA IS INDICATED TO BE GONE... WHILE TO ITS WEST A SMALL AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN RUSSIA... EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF SCANDINAVIA TO TURKEY. ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH... ALTHOUGH AS THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE BERING SEA... SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF THE STATE. DUE TO SIGNIFIANCT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGS AND THE INDIVUDAL OPERATONAL GFS RUNS AT THIS RANGE... PARTICULARLY IN THE LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. ... THE FORECAST FOR THE CONUS HAS BECOME RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... WITH INCREASING DISAGREEMENT EVEN AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS... AND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE RECENT INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT THE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT TO A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA PATTERN... AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAST THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CONUS WILL ADJUST TO THE NEW PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND ENSEMBLE MEANS... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBURARY 16. AN UPDATED FORECAST FOR FEBRUARY WILL BE ISSUED ON JAN. 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990126 - 19890113 - 19890128 - 19900122 - 19890118 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890113 - 19990126 - 19740125 - 19900120 - 19520105 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$