SUBJECT: "Asteroids: Perils and Opportunities" hearing before the Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics, Committee on Science, May 21, 1998.
MEMBERS Rohrabacher , Chairman, (R-CA), Brown (D-CA), Cook (R-UT), Gordon (D-TN), Bartlett (R-MD), PRESENT: Hall (D-TX), Roemer (D-IN), Weldon (D-FL), Luther (D-MN)
WITNESS: Dr. Clark Chapman, Southwest Research Institute; Dr. William Ailor, The Aerospace Corporation; Dr. Gregory Canavan, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dr. John Lewis; Dr. Carl Pilcher,. NASA.
OPENING STATEMENTS:
Chairman Rohrabacher opened the hearing by commending Congressman Brown for his leadership and long track record of pushing the Executive Branch to deal with the issue of cataloging and characterizing asteroids. He stated that the potential impact of these hazardous objects is one of national security, economic as well as scientific interest. Congressman Rohrabacher noted that the potential to mine asteroid for metals, minerals and other resources that can be used to build large structures in space was an important aspect of the hearing. Mr. Rohrabacher chided NASA for not "walking the talk" by funding the Near Earth Object (NEO) search program at the levels suggested in the Shoemaker Report. He noted that NASA has no trouble finding $50 million for a program pushed by the Vice President to transmit pictures of Earth into everyone’s living room and cannot find a few million dollars to increase the likelihood of cataloguing all of the potentially hazardous NEOs l km or larger.
Congressman Brown echoed his long-standing interest in this subject and the importance of addressing the issue of cataloging and characterizing NEOs even though the risk of impact is small because of the enormous potential catastrophic consequences.
Dr. Chapman discussed the "possibility that an asteroid or comet might strike Earth in our lifetime, perhaps destroying civilization as we know it." He presented a chart which illustrated the chances of dying from an asteroid impact against selected other causes. (USA). Congressman Cook noted that the chances of dying from an airplane crash and from an asteroid impact were both l in 20,000.
Dr. Chapman noted that if a mile-wide asteroid hit earth, it would create a hole larger than Washington DC, it would be deeper that 20 Washington monuments stacked on top of each other, ruin agriculture production, and hundreds of millions to billions of people would die. He noted that the consequences were devastating and, therefore, it was prudent to implement the recommendations contained in the Shoemaker Report of cataloging 90% of all of the NEOs with diameters of 1 km or larger within a decade. This would reduce by a factor ten the uncertainty of knowing if an asteroid were headed toward Earth and would likely provide sufficient time to try and deal with the situation..
Dr. Pilcher testified that NASA is committed to the goal of cataloging 90% of all of the NEOs with diameters larger than 1 km within a decade and that we are on track to do so. He stated that NASA has a rich program of research on asteroids and comets which will provide essential information if the Nation were ever to divert an asteroid. Dr. Pilcher stated that the Space Science Strategic Plan includes as a objective, to catalog 90% of the NEOs with diameters larger than 1 km within 5-6 years and NASA has put into place a program to do this. Dr. Pilcher stated that the budget has been doubled to $3 million and NASA will maintain at least this level of funding in the future. Dr. Pilcher outlined all of the elements of the NEO Search program and where increases in the budget have enabled NASA to support new activities. He discussed the Partnership Council, a Council chaired by the Administrator and General Estes of the Air Force to discuss issues of mutual concern to both agencies - NEO detection is one issue which the Partnership Council is addressing. Dr. Pilcher stated that the only recommendation that NASA is not implementing from the Shoemaker Report was the recommendation to build a dedicated 2 meter telescope - -because planned upgrades to existing telescopes can do the job. Dr. Pilcher told the Committee that NASA would do what it takes to do the job right.
Dr. Canavan’s testimony addressed several issues. He stated that new technology developed since the Shoemaker Report was issued has increased the detection rate. He emphasized that one area that has not been addressed is long period comets whose orbits intersect the Earth. He said there is no clear concept how to do this and it may constitute as high as 50% of the threat. Dr. Canavan also stated that characterization of asteroids is important if one were to try and alter the course of an asteroid or comet. He discussed the Clementine II mission, which he said represented excellent collaboration between NASA and DOD before it was canceled. Dr. Canavan closed by saying that the current level of funding for NEO searches is 1/3 to ½ too low to adequately do the job.
Dr. Ailor discussed the risk the Leonid meteor shower will pose this November. He stated that in a normal year one see 10-15 meteors per hour and this November there will be as many as 200-5,000 meteors per hour traveling at a speed of approximately 155,000 miles per hour. He discussed the recommendations from a recent Conference that was held to address this issue: 1) During the period, satellite controllers should be on duty and check the health of the satellites frequently, 2) orient satellites so that sensitive components are shielded from the oncoming stream of particles and 3) recovery plans should be in place in the event of a system failure.
Dr. Lewis discussed the economic value of asteroids as a source to mine minerals and materials for earth or to produce materials in space for future space transportation. He noted the very low departure speed required to lift off from an asteroid for a return trip to Earth. Dr. Lewis stated that the keys to successful importation of materials from space are lower launch costs and careful choice of exploitation targets to favor those that are most accessible and have the richest resource concentrations.
QUESTIONS:
Chairman Rohrabacher stated that NASA has not been spending adequate funding to search for NEOs as recommended in the Shoemaker Report. Dr. Pilcher noted that, the Office of Space Science has issued their Strategic Plan which includes a goal of cataloging 90% of the 1 km asteroids, that NASA funding wasn’t adequate to accomplish this goal, and NASA had doubled the funding of the NEO program.
Mr. Rohrabacher asked Dr. Pilcher how many of the asteroid missions he discussed were actually in the budget. Dr. Pilcher replied that DS-1, DS-4, Contour, STARDUST, Comet Nucleus Sample Return, and Pluto Kuiper Express were all assumed in NASA’s budget.
Congressman Gordon asked if NASA was the only Agency working on the problem. Dr. Pilcher responded that NASA supports researchers at Universities to address this issue and works closely with the Air Force. He stated that NASA is developing collaborations with the international community as well. Mr. Gordon asked if the Federal Government was coordinating adequately. Dr. Chapman responded that FEMA has little appreciation for the hazard of such an event. Dr. Canavan stated that interagency cooperation between NASA and the Air Force hasn’t percolated down to the troops beyond the Administrator and General Estes.
Congressman Hall asked if we have to have a calamity before anyone takes something seriously and noted that it is an international problem and should have international participation. He asked how much NASA is spending on search activities. Dr. Pilcher responded that NASA is spending $3 million per year and approximately $1 billion over the next decade in asteroid/comet missions. Mr. Hall questioned if NASA is actually spending all of the money allocated for the purposes which the Congress appropriated the funds, indicating that Life and Microgravity funding was being spent for hardware and not research.
Mr. Roemer noted that Dr. Chapman had provided the sound bite for the evening news - that "a mile wide asteroid could hit the Earth tomorrow and we wouldn’t know anything about it." He asked if the Federal Agencies had held discussions among themselves on what you would need to do to coordinate a response if an impact were imminent. The witnesses indicated that not much had been done.
Mr. Rohrabacher stated that one needs to put things in perspective and perhaps we aren’t spending money wisely. He noted that Mission to Planet Earth is budgeted at $1.4 billion and perhaps it makes more sense to spend additional money on looking for NEOs and improving interagency coordination instead of spending money on Mission to Planet Earth. He stated that he hoped the Congress would move forward and lay the ground work for the Clementine II mission.
Congressman Hall said he thought the hearing was a waste of time unless "we arrive at some actions - if it is money we need to know how much." Both he and Congressman Rohrabacher charged each of the witnesses to draft a two page action plan on what is needed to address the NEO issue and what policies need to be developed to meet the challenges that a NEO impact threat poses.
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