Issued: Tuesday Feb 10, 2009
Predictive Service Areas Ytd Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16
NC01 - North Coast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NC02 - Mid Coast to Mendocino 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NC03 - Bay Area 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NC04 - Northwestern Mountains 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NC05 - Sacramento Vly/Foothills 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NC06 - Northeastern California 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NC07 - Northern Sierra 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NC08 - East Side 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Weather Synopsis:  
Northern CA is in for at least one and probably two weeks of frequently stormy weather, due to a recent shift in the large-scale governing jet stream pattern.  Up to four significant Pacific storms could come across the north state between now and next Tuesday afternoon, each with areal ranges of .25 to 1.25” precipitation across the bulk of the Geographic Area.  These are cool to cold storms and snow levels will likely stay at or below 3000’ North and 4000’ South for each of them.  The next system is a cold front that will be moving into NW California this afternoon and across the rest of the Area tonight... its post-frontal low will also keep Wednesday in cool showery weather.  The most major of the storms presently looks to be one that comes in two back-to-back parts that will dominate with cold wet condtions for the majority of the late Thursday to Sunday p.m. time frame.   Gradient winds will be increasing from the South to SW during the afternoon and evening hours today, as the cold front approaches.  Gusts on exposed mountain ridges could reach the 35-50 mph range by this evening, particularly in Siskiyou Co. and the Cascade/Sierras eastward.             J. Snook.
Click on this link to see CANSAC 3-hrly surface wind and precipitation forecasts:
http://www.cefa.dri.edu/COFF/cansac_output.php
Fire Potential Discussion:                    
With the shift to a colder wetter governing weather pattern, dead fuels will continue to get more moist (and/or snow-covered) again during this next week.  Fuels of all types in all PSA will remain in the Moist (Green) category for the foreseeable (about 2 weeks) future.  
Resources
Northern California Geographic Area Preparedness Level 1, MACS Mode 1.  
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NOTICE: Forecast for the following PSA's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed below: 
 

MID COAST

Mendocino Pass

Soda Creek    

 

EAST SIDE

Barrel Springs

Juniper Springs

Stampede