FXUS65 KTFX 242111
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MONTANA
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND
QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING A LITTLE VARIETY. THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE TFX CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE STATE...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY
AND COOLING SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TFX ZONES. THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS...WITH ONLY MARGINAL COOLING THERE. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO AM ONLY EXPECTING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM IT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
COULSTON

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE STATE THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT HANDLED THIS WELL AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MEIER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF UB 045/080 048/071 044 10000
    BUBBB 074/045 076/046 075/042 070/042 069 00000000000
CTB UB 042/078 043/067 041 10000
    UUBBB 072/042 072/043 071/040 065/039 064 00000000000
HLN UB 046/081 049/076 045 10000
    UUBBB 075/045 076/048 076/042 071/043 069 00000000000
BZN UB 040/081 045/076 038 10000
    BBBBB 075/038 074/038 074/037 070/038 067 00000000000
WEY UB 035/072 038/069 036 10000
    BBBBB 069/034 066/035 070/034 064/035 061 00210000000
DLN UB 041/078 046/076 042 10000
    BUUBB 077/041 072/043 073/040 068/041 066 00000000000
HVR UB 046/083 044/072 043 10000
    BUBBB 072/043 077/040 077/041 071/040 069 00000000000
LWT UB 042/080 047/075 044 10000
    BUUBB 073/043 073/043 073/042 069/041 070 00000000000

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$