PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU MAR 01 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 07 - 11 2007 TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE KEY 500-HPA CIRCULATION FEATURES PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICA SECTOR DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND ARE VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. AGAIN TODAY... THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN... AND IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. ALL PROGS PLACE A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH... ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHASE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER TODAY... PREDICTING A STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL VERSIONS OF EACH MODEL WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS... ALTHOUGH AS USUAL THEY HAD SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERNS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE OVERALL PICTURE SHOWN BY THE BLENDED OFFICIAL 500-HPA PROG INDICATES A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SIBERIA SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SEA OF JAPAN... A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE BERING SEA... AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA NEAR THE NORTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE. BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AT LOWER LATITUDES... A ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. VERY STRONG ZONAL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM THE EAST COAST TO WESTERN EUROPE. AN AREA OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES TO THE NORTH OF A VERY STRONG AZORES RIDGE... WITH HINTS OF A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN... SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR INTENSE STORMINESS OVER WESTERN EUROPE AND POSSIBLY THE MEDITERRANEAN AS WELL. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND CONTINUING GOOD CONSISTENCY IN BOTH MODELS WITH YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS BASED ON TODAYS OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG WERE ALSO IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND 2-METER UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL BECAME AVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY AND WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. THE NAEFS (NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM) A NEW EXPERIMENTAL TEMPERATURE WHICH USES AN EQUAL WEIGHTING OF THE MOST RECENT FOUR GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE MOST RECENT TWO (0Z AND 12Z) CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AS INPUTS... WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15 2007: THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION FEATURES AT MIDDLE AND LOW LATITUDES OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICA REGION FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE WERE RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND THE ARCTIC. OVERALL... THE GFS FORECAST PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO MOST SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEY ARE FORECASTING PERSISTENCE BUT SOME WEAKENING OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE TROUGH JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM ITS POSITION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER STATES OF THE CONUS. A WEAK ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE IS INDICATED TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS... AND THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE ON A WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OR APPALACHIANS. THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS WERE AGAIN SHOWING DIFFERENT POSSIBILITES... ANYWHERE FROM THE PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND... AS TO WHERE A TROUGH MIGHT DEVELOP AND BREAK THE RIDGE... ADDING A NOTE OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE VERY ZONAL OFFICIAL PROG. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWED THE MOST AMPLITUDE IN THE BERING SEA RIDGE AND THE NORTHWEST CANADA TROUGH... EVEN MORE THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS RUNS... MOST OF WHICH SHOW A MORE MARKED WEAKENING IN THESE FEATURES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE PRIMARILY TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GFS OVER THE CONUS... OFFSET BY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL GFS MODELS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MAN WAS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES... ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAINED MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE BERING SEA RIDGE AND THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA TROUGH.. EVEN THOUGH ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE OFTEN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE CONUS WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN... THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. HOWEVER... THE RISK REMAINS THAT SMALL CHANGES IN THE PATTERN SUCH AS A RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN TROUGH BREAKING THROUGH THE ZONAL RIDGE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE CHANGE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT BUT FAST-MOVING DAILY WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WOULD NOT SHOW IN THE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AS WELL AS THE CDC FEFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE NAEFS TOOL... WHCIH IS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE 6-10 DAY DISCUSSION... WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 15. AN UPDATED MONTLY FORECAST FOR MARCH WAS RELEASED ON FEB 28. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520216 - 19850209 - 19560220 - 19580308 - 19620304 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520216 - 19560220 - 19850209 - 19580308 - 19620304 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 11, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA N B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$