SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 113 PM MDT SAT APR 13 2002 ...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEK... ...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON... CURRENTLY: RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PATTERN THIS AFTN. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED NEXT ULJ MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SCT-BKN CI/CS CLOUDS MOVING SWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. TNGT: RELATIVELY WK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW PROGGED FOR THE CNTRL ROCKIES TNGT. SHOULD SEE SOME CI/CS MIGRATING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES LATER ON TNGT. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. SUN-SUN NGT: TOUGH CALL ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES NEED DURING THESE PERIODS. AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME 300MB(CI/CS) OVERHEAD. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREEZY CONDITIONS. IF CI/CS SHIELD IS A LITTLE MORE OPAQUE THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD TEMPER THE MIXING. BEST WINDS...ALBEIT 20- 30KTS...ARE LOCATED AT 500MB AND WILL NEED TO BE DRY ADIABATIC TO LESS LEVEL. LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR "VIRGA BOMBS" TO BRING THIS MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A VERY MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR MET CONDITIONS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUN. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CERTAINLY WILL BE ABOVE MID APR AVE TEMPS. WILL BE CLOSE TO APR RECORD HIGHS IN ALL AREAS ON SUN. SUN NGT...ULJ AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BEGIN TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. SHOULD SEE A DECOUPLING OF WINDS AT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE FAR SERN CO CORNER WHERE LEE SIDE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED AND LLJ EXTENDS FROM WRN TX INTO KS. ANY "SIGNIFICANT" WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE NGT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MON AM AS THE NEXT ULJ TAKES AIM ON THE CNTRL ROCKIES FOR LATE MON-TUE. CURRENT ZFP LOOKS IN LINE...BUT WILL NEED TO ADD DETAILED WIND WORDING. MON-MON NGT: PREVIOUS AFD SPELLS IT OUT WELL..."IN ADDITION TO THE METEOROLOGY....ACCORDING TO NOAA AND FOREST SERVICE GUIDANCE...FUELS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE "100 HOUR FUELS" (THAT IS...OLD DEAD LOGS) IF A FIRE SHOULD GET STARTED...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR(HODANISH/SAT AM AFD)." STARTING TO GET GOOD RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONTINUITY ON THE POTENTIAL OF WINDY/VERY WINDY AND EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR MET CONDITIONS FOR MON-MON EVE. LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN WY WITH TIGHT LEE SIDE TROUGH/DRYLINE PROJECT OUT NEAR CO/KS BORDER. RELATIVELY DEEP "DRY" AIR PROGGED IN THIS VIGOROUS SWLY FLOW. 500MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE 45-55KTS WITH 700MB WINDS 30-40KTS DURING MUCH OF MON INTO MON EVE. PATTERN SUGGEST FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION SUN NGT AND SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY MON AM. BY MON AFTN...850-800MB LYR WINDS PROGGED TO BE 20-35KTS. WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LYR...POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUST OF 45-50KTS. AT THIS TIME...THE AREAS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR 50KT GUSTS WOULD BE THE MTNS...GAP FLOW AREAS(WALSENBURG)...AND SAN LUIS/UPPER AR RIVER VALLEYS WHERE HIGH WIND HEADLINES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR MON-MON EVE. WILL MENTION "VERY WINDY" FOR MON-MON EVE BASED ON THE POTENTIAL GUSTS. PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ARE SLIM GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DEEP "DRY" AIR MASS...HOWEVER THERE IS A "CHUNK" OF 500MB MOISTURE RACING ACROSS NM LATE MON AFTN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT ALL LOCATIONS. MON NGT WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY MILD WITH POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD WITH SFC CYCLONE MIGRATING FROM WY TO THE NRN PLAINS. SFC WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NGT. 850MB TEMPS IN SERN CO FORECAST TO BE AROUND +20C BY 12Z/15 TUE. GRIDS HAVE LOW TEMPS AROUND 60F IN FAR SERN CO MON NGT AND COULD BE DOABLE. PLAN TO HIT THE WINDS PRETTY HARD AND IF THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH WIND HEADLINES MON-MON EVE. TUE: ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AGAIN...MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK TO PROMISING... EXCEPT ALONG AND W OF CONTDVD. THIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM ULJ MOVING OUT OF OLD MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR "VIRGA BOMB" DAY IF CONDITIONS BECOME JUXTAPOSED. MIGHT NEED MORE HEADLINES FOR THIS DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POP MENTION. WED-SAT: UPPER LEVEL W-SWLY FLOW NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY WED-THU WITH MODEL NOW PROJECTING ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE THU-FRI. ON TUE NGT- WED SHALLOW FROPA ERN CO WITH WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT IN ERN CO/WRN KS WITH DRYLINE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEYOND ON WED. TROUGH HEADS TOWARD CNTRL ROCKIES THU-FRI. MRF MAY BE TOO COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM. ECWMF OFFERS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR THU-FRI WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CA AND NOT MUCH COMING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT. DAY 4-6 WAS TOUCHED ON THE MIDSHIFT AND PLAN NOT TO CHANGE. WILL ADD DAY 7 AND KEEP FORECAST NR CLIMO AND NO PRECIP MENTION. .PUB...NONE. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 200 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 RUC HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH A SFC LOW CENTERED NW OF BOOTHVILLE, LA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE TIGHT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SFC LOW. LOCAL 88-DS ARE BECOMING ACTIVE AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORM OVER THE CWA. SIMILIAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LAST INTO SUN AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING. RIDGING ALOFT IS INDICATED BEGINNING MON. THE SFC HI CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC WILL NOSE BACK TO THE WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS SRN GA. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK VEERING THE WINDS FROM SE TO SW. PWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AN INCH AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. POPS WL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY HIGHER POPS CARRIED EAST. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR AFTN AND EVENING TSMS BY MON. FIRE WEATHER: NO HIGHLIGHTS. MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS AS WINDS AND SEAS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH WED. EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST TUE SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC WED STRENGTHENING THE BURMUDA HI WHOSE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS WEST ACROSS SRN GA. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH DOWN THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PLACING THE WHOLE CWA IN A SW REGIME THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA BREEZE TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO DROP INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PCPN. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TLH 062/081 061/082 4433 PFN 065/077 065/079 4433 DHN 063/078 062/079 4432 ABY 062/078 061/080 4432 VLD 063/082 062/082 4433 .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. MME fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 845 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 .MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM AS TO WHAT FEATURES TO FOCUS ON. RUC AND MESOETA PLUS NUMERIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST DRIFT TO MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN. .CURRENT...FEW REMAINING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DIMINISHING LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG LINE OF SHOWERS. UPPER LOW IN GULF WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ESE DRIFT AND SLOW FILLING THROUGH TONIGHT. .FORECAST...WILL SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. WILL CHANGE TYPE TO RAIN AND DIMINISH POPS TO 20 PERCENT. UPPER LOW WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT AS IT WANDERS AND DIMINISHES. IT IS PROVIDING LITTLE IN WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER INPUT TO CURRENT WEATHER. WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP, SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG NORTH. TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS DUE TO CLOUDS AND LITTLE THICKNESS CHANGE. .ATL... GA...NONE. OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC. OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE AT FLUS42 KFFC. ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 945 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002 LIKE LAST NIGHT...UPDATED LOWS A CATEGORY WITH AIR MASS BEING MORE HUMID AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS REFLECT. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FROM THE IL RIVER NW TO AROUND 60 SE BY KLWV. ALSO UPDATED AREAS ALONG AND SE OF I-70 FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHERE BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS LINGER. KEPT THIS AREA DRY OVERNIGHT AS MESOETA ADVERTISES. BUT RUC BRINGS LIGHT QPF NE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT. THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF IN SE CWFA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS MCV IN OZARKS LIFTS NE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SE OF KLWV. 9 PM TEMPS RANGE FROM 54 AT KGBG...KHUF AND KCMI TO 64 AT FLORA AND 63 AT KLWV AND OLNEY. LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT LIKE LAST NIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS STAYING ABOVE 1SM. LOWEST VSBYS NEAR 1SM ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .ILX...NONE. $$ HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 840 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 AT 830 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDED IN A LINE ABOUT 40-60 MILES WIDE FROM SERN PA BACK ACROSS CNTRL MD...THE ERN WV PANHNDL AND INTO WESTERN VA AND DOWN INTO SRN WV. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY REGION AFTER 11 PM. AIRMASS NOT VERY UNSTABLE AND LGTNG ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO SRN PORTIONS OF WV THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE LINE IS HOLDING TOGETHER AND PRODUCING A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN...SOME SPOTS COULD GET UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THE RUC/ETA SHOW LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT FOR OUR CWA. THE CURRENT ZNS INDICATING CHC SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND...MAINLY MID/HI CLDS TO SUPPORT MSTLY CLDY OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING ASIDE FROM THE LINE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 18Z ETA/AVN MDLS SHOW SOME MID-LVL DRYING ALOFT MOVING INTO THE NW PRTN OF THE CWA. SO BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE CURRENT LINE. HOWEVER RADAR FROM CHARLESTON WV SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL BACK TO THE SW OF THEM...SO THAT'S ANOTHER REASON TO LEAVE OUR CHC SHOWERS IN TONIGHT. 18Z ETA SHOWS A WK WAVE MOVING ACROSS WV/WRN VA/MD TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA. ORIENTATION OF THE UPR LVL JET OVER PA BY 09Z/14 SUPPORTS ENHANCED UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE IN FAR WRN SECTIONS BETWEEN 09Z/14 AND 15Z/14. TEMPS TNGT LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK. ON SUN...LOOKS ALMOST TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AND MAYBE WHERE THE SUN BUSTS THROUGH WE COULD SEE AN ISOL TSTM. INSTABILITY SEEMS LIMITED AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP SFC HEATING DOWN. RIGHT NOW...THINK THE LKLY POPS FOR SUNDAY MIGHT BE A TAD OVERDOWN BUT WON'T TOUCH AT THIS POINT. FOR NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY SUMMER PATTERN SETTING UP. BY MID WEEK A BERMUDA-STYLE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE UP RESIDENCY OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST. THIS WILL PUMP A MOIST WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH FROM TUES ON. THIS MEANS SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK. EVEN THE TYPICALLY CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE FROM THE MRF SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE L0W TO MID 80S. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH TO FORCE PRECIPITATIOIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO IT WILL REMAIN DRY. SMZ .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 BCMG NICE DAY E OF THE BLURDG...W/ LGT SLY FLW...SLGTLY HUMID DEWPTS /ARND 60F/...AND THN SPOTS DVLPG ON STLT AND REFLTD IN OBS. WKNG FRNTL BDNRY APPCHG TDA...BUT CONVGNC REMAINS TO THE W...WHERE A ROUND OF -SHRA PASSED THIS MRNG. ETA-RUC SFC TEMPS AT 21Z LWR-MID 70S. CONSIDERING TEMPS IN MID 60S NOW...THESE VALUES WELL W/IN REASON. ZFP/RDF WL BE UPDTD TO REFLCT THIS. CLDCVR LIKELY TO REMAIN THICKER TO THE W...SO TEMPS TO STAY CLSR TO CRRNT VALUES. DONT SEE TRIGGER/FOCUS FOR TSTMS TDA...OUTSIDE OF WK SFC CONVG INVOF DECAYING FRNT. AREAS TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS /THE EAST/ WONT HV ANY SPPRT... AND THOSE W/ WEAK SPPRT LIKELY WONT ATTAIN CONVCTV TEMPS. QSTNG WHETHER ANY SHRA AT ALL WL FORM ERN THIRD OF AREA IN FEATURELESS SWLY FLW. POPS WL BE LWRD IN THE E...AND WL BUMP UP TO LIKELY WRN RDGS...NEAREST FOCUSING MECHANISMS. AS PER THUNDER...WL LV IT IN W AND CNTRL SXNS...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNPLAY WORDING CNTRL. WL RMV THUNDER ALTOGETHER ERN ZNS AND THE CWF. SERIOUSLY DOUBT IF ANYTHING WERE TO ORGANIZE...THAT IT WUD BE ABLE TO DRIFT THAT FAR E AWAY FM ANY SPPRT GIVEN DEEP SWLY STEERLING FLW. ALSO QSTN WHETHER ANY PCPN WL BE ARND THIS EVNG...AS ONE S/WV DEPARTS LT THIS AFTN...AND NXT ONE NOT ARRIVING TIL TMRW. WL TABLE THAT ITEM FOR TAFTN. CWF SOON...ZFP/RDF BFR 11AM. .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. HTS md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 945 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 DEWPOINT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST MESOETA/RUC FORECASTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTING THAT THREAT FOR STRATUS/FOG WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SE COUNTIES...IN LINE WITH ONGOING FORECASTS. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CROSSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...0Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS WERE VERY DRY...WHILE 18Z MESOETA FORECAST DEPICTED THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WEAKENING AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALL SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING PER UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...AND PLAN TO CONTINUE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS ACROSS THE N/NW. 18Z MESOETA DOES SUGGEST THAT A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN UP AND NW LOWER MI AROUND 12Z...BUT WILL LEAVE SECOND PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS FOR MID SHIFT. OTHERWISE...WILL DROP EVENING SKY COVER REFERENCES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/WINDS. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1106 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE INVOLVES THE TEMP TDA AND TNGT...AND FLOOD POTENTIAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK SHRTWV OVR E PART OF CWA AND OVR LWR MI EMBEDDED IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACRS N CONUS. OTHER SHRTWV'S ARE OVR W DKTS...AND OVR WA. TO THE S A LOW CNTR IS DVLPG OVR BAJA...AND ANOTHER OVR THE NE GLFMEX. MEANWHILE...SFC ANLYS INDC A RDG OVR UPR GRTLKS PROD DRY COND AND LGT WNDS ACRS FCST AREA THIS MRNG. A WRMFNT STRETCHES FM A LOW OVR N MAN ACRS N ONT INTO S QUE. A WEAK SFC TROF IS MAKING IT'S WAY ACRS N PLAINS IN ASSOC THE MID LVL SHRTWV. IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLDS AHD OF THIS TROF. LTG DETECTION NET SHOWING TSTM OVR OK/KS AND NE NE THIS AM. MRNG RAOB SHOWING VRY DRY ABV 850MB OVR UPR GRTLKS. THUS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MO CLR THIS AFTN. WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RDG...WNDS SHOULD REMAIN LGT. BUOY DATA INDC LK TEMP ARND 35F. THUS WITH TEMPS WRMG INTO 50S AND LOW 60S THIS AFTN WITH ABUNDANCE OF SUN...SHOULD SEE A FEW LK BREEZES SET UP. RUC IS TRACKING A VRY WEAK SHRTWV INTO W CWA BY LATE AFTN. 295K ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AHD OF MID SFC TROF AND ASSOC SHRTWV. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AMS...A FEW CLDS SHOULD DVLP OVR W CWA BY LATE AFTN... OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY. A SHRTWV WILL MOV ACRS FCST AREA OVRNGT. SFC TROF WILL WORK INTO NW MN. 295K ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG UVM AHD OF THE TROF. SOME GULF MSTR WILL HAVE WORKED IT WAY INTO THE N PLAINS AHD OF THE TROF. THIS WILL EDGE INTO THE U.P. OVRNGT. THIS...WITH THE LIFT... CAUSED BY THE SFC TROF AND SHRTWV...WILL TRIGGERS SCT SHRA ACRS W U.P. OVRNGT. THESE SHRA WILL OVRSPREAD THE FCST AREA ON SUN. 850-500MB Q-VEC CONVERGENCE WOULD INCR ACRS FCST AREA BY 12Z SUN. ETA INDC A BAND OF INSTABILITY PROD SOME K-INDEX ARND 30. THUS LOOKING FOR EVEN A TSRA OR TWO POSSIBLE. .MQT...NONE. DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 939 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002 AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES WILL BE FORTHCOMING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND TO UPDATE SKY CONDITION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. DISCUSSION... SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE SKY. I THINK THE CIRRUS WILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGING WORDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS TO "PARTLY CLOUDY." OUR EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS THINGS ARE (RELATIVELY) DRY THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 14/00Z ETA APPEAR TO BE TOO MOIST...WITH THE RUC AND MM5 A LITTLE CLOSER TO REALITY. THESE TWO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS AREA TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE REDUCED BELOW 3 MILES...SO I'LL HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE ZONES FOR THE TIME BEING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE A-OK...WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS GENERALLY IN THE BALLPARK. THE UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. FCSTID = 10 .JAN... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. MS...NONE. BUTTS ms FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 815 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002 FCST CHALLENGE...OVERNIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FIRST 50H WAVE HAS MOVED WELL EAST INTO NE MN...WITH SECONDARY TROUGH LOCATED FROM ROSEAU TO FERGUS FALLS. THIS TROUGH HELPED KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA PAST 2 HOURS...WITH MOST ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWFA. W-SW WINDS AND 30 DEW PTS HANGING BEHIND TROUGH OVER MUCH OF ND...BUT APPEARS THIS DRIER AIR AND WIND SHIFT WILL NOT GET INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEW PTS ARE AROUND 50. ATTENTION TURNS WEST AS POTENT VORT MAX OVER FAR NCNTRL MT HELPING TO SET OFF AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SRN SASK AND NE MT LATE THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO NW NW AND MINOT 88D SHOWING MOVEMENT AT 35-40KTS EAST. RUC SHOWS STRONG 30H DIVERGENCE ASSOC WITH 130KT JET MOVING THRU NRN ZONES TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NARROW 85H THETA-E RIDGE AND 85-70H CONVERGENCE. CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER NW ND ATTM. THUS APPEARS LIKELY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND MOVE THRU NRN CWFA OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS TO NRN 1/2 CWFA OVERNIGHT. ATTM WILL LEAVE SE ND DRY AS MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH. WILL SEND OUT UPDATED ZFP/RDF/WEB IMAGES OUT BY 9 PM. .FGF...NONE. RIDDLE nd FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 945 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2002 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS DEGREE OF CONVECTION AND TEMPS. NARROW BAND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL DAKOTAS BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PROPAGATING EAST AOB 25KTS AND SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER AROUND 18Z. RUC INDICATING SHOWALTER INDICES HOVERING AROUND ZERO HOWEVER NO LTG HITS SO FAR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING HOWEVER WITH WELL DIFINED CIRCULATION NOTED FROM WATER VAPOR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY POTENTIAL WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLD T. BASED ON UPSTREAM CLEARING AND SPEED OF RAIN BAND WILL MAKE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS. MILD START HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS ESPECIALLY EAST OF RRV. WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK HOWEVER ANY CHANGES WILL BE MINOR. .FGF...NONE. VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 905 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 WK SFC BNDRY STILL LOOKS TO BE ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF FA AND THEN PSBLY TRAILING DOWN INTO SRN IND. SFC RUC DATA SHWG SOME WK INSTBLTY TO THE S ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF FA. THIS ALG WITH A LTL CONV HAS BEEN ENUF TO GENERATE A FEW SHWRS ACRS NRN KY PAST SVRL HRS. RADAR PIX SHWG PCPN A BIT MORE WIDESPRD DOWN TO THE SW ACRS WRN KY. MDLS KPG DPR MSTR ACRS THE S OVRNGT AND WITH A LTL BETTER S/W ENERGY MOVG IN LATER TNGT...WL HANG ON TO PCPN ACRS THE S BUT MAY TRIM BACK POPS A LTL. SC HAS BEEN ADVECTING IN ACRS THE AREA AND THINK THIS MAY HELP KP TEMPS UP A LTL SO WL TWEAK TEMPS UP IN THE S. CLDS SHUD ALSO HELP LIMIT THE PSBLTY OF DENSE FOG DVLPMT AND THINK CRNT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. .ILN...NONE LOTT oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1005 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 12Z SFC MAP DEPICTED A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL LAKE ONTARIO...SW THRU CNTRL LAKE ERIE...THEN INTO NW OHIO AND CNTRL INDIANA. 06Z ETA AND 06Z AVN DIFFER SOMEWHAT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL GET. ETA ALLOWS FRONT TO PASS THRU WAPAKONETA AND DAYTON AREAS...BUT NO FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AVN ALLOWS FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH AND EAST OF COLUMBUS AND JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR CVG AND PMH. RUC IS SIMILAR TO AVN. SOMETIMES A BLEND OF THE MODELS IS THE BEST CHOICE IN THE SITUATION. THUS...A WEAKENED FRONTAL POSITION SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE ETA SOLUTION BUT NORTH OF THE AVN SOLUTION WILL BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SFC TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...A H5 S/WV WILL CROSS THE REMAINING CWFA BETWEEN NOW AND 20Z. RAIN SHOWERS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS S/WV ACRS THE ERN CWFA AS SEEN ON KILN RADAR. GIVEN NVA BEHIND THE S/WV AND THE LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE WEST AND THE ANTICIPATED LOW CU ACRS THE EAST BY MID AFTN...WILL REMOVE CHC/S FOR SHOWERS/TSTM ACRS THE WEST AND ONLY LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN IN THE EAST. MODIFIED ILN SOUNDING WITH A HIGH OF 67 YIELDS ONLY 227 J/KG OF CAPE. AS STATED...WITH NVA BEHIND SW/V...BELIEVE DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK. WILL TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS. .ILN...NONE HICKMAN oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 220 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 THE LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD AND INTO THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MSAS SHOWS WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART...BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT COVERAGE. THE LATEST MSAS SHOWED LI/S NEAR -1. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS SO EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND H5 TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE ETA AND AVN INDICATE A LACK OF H85 WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA SO EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HEATING. PLAN TO USE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY. PLAN TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HEATING. THE MRF MAINTAINS HIGH MRH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH K-INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE MODEL SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. FCSTID = 5 CAE 58 79 61 80 / 30 40 30 30 AGS 58 80 59 79 / 30 40 30 30 SSC 59 79 60 79 / 30 40 30 30 OGB 59 80 61 80 / 30 40 30 30 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1015 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2002 VERY LTL CHANGE ON UPDATE. WILL RAISE TEMPS A CAT ACRS INLAND SC CNTYS TO UPR 70S...AND REMOVE MORN WORDING FM ALL ZONES. WILL MAINTAIN CHC CONVECTION ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH HIER POPS WELL INLAND AS RUC AND MESOETA MODELS INDICATE UPR VORT MOVG NWD ALG THE CST DURG THE AFTN. MARINE...LTL IF ANY CHG ON UPDATE. WILL MAINTAIN SCEC FOR ALL AREAS BUT CHS HARBOR THIS AFTN WITH E-SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS. .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. JAC/SLF sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS 920 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002 CONVECTION ALONG SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THEN EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG JET STREAK DIVING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW LATE TONIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT 500 MB WITH DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NORTH EASTERN CWA. BOTH RUC AND ETA SHOW LI/S FALLING BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAWN. THIS WL INTERACT WITH A SFC TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE BEST INTERACTION WL BE ACRS SW MN TOWARD DAWN. TO THE SOUTH...ATMOS DOES NOT DESTABILIZE AND NOT AS FAVORABLY LOCATED WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER JET AND THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WRN CWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR AT 500 MB CAN MOVE IN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT TONIGHTS CONVECTION WL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF I29 EARLY. THIS...COMBINED WITH COOL OUTFLOW WL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL A LITTLE FARTHER THAN FORECAST. TO THE WEST...WNDS WL PICKUP AS THE SECOND TROUGH APPROACHES KEEPING TEMPS NEAR FCST LOWS. OTHERWISE WL REMOVE EVENING WORDING FROM ZONES. UPDATED FCST OUT AROUND 930 PM CDT. .FSD...NONE. SCHUMACHER sd DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1000 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2002 AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE POSITIVE TILTED 200MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH WEAK 500/700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. 500/700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROVIDING OVER SOUTH TX PROVIDING SUBSIDENT AIR IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BAJA CA AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WITH 1000-500MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING ANTICYCLONE ALONG TX COAST...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR AN INCH WITH STRONG INVERSION AND DRY AIR INTRUSION BETWEEN 900MB AND 800MB. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS WITH CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS YIELD CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 100 WHICH IMPLIES MUCH HEAT NEEDED TO OVERCOME 10 DEGREE CAP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CU FIELD OVER CWA. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE FOG AND WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. MARINE...SEAS 2 FEET OFFSHORE WITH E TO SE WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CWF NEEDED. SYNOPTIC-PUBLIC/AVIATION-MARINE...CASTILLO.61 MESO...MARTINEZ INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC 150 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002 HIGH PRES CONTINUES OFF THE E COAST KEEPING WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE NE GULF WHILE A SW/V WAS APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK VORT HAS LED TO THE DEVELOP- MENT OF WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA OFF THE SC COAST. ETA/RUC DIFFER IN LOCATION OF THE VORT BUT BOTH DRIFT IT N AND WEAKEN IT THIS MORNING. THE AVN DOES THE SAME W/ THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE W/ LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES AT NIGHT SINCE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER TO LOCK ONTO...AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 00Z ETA SHEARS OUT THE S/WV APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY...THEN CONSOLIDATES IT ACROSS THE DEEP S MON/TUE TIME FRAME. THE AVN IS SIMILAR...AND BOTH SUGGEST MINOR VORTS WILL MOVE THIS WAY DURING THE WEEK. IF THE AVN PANS OUT...THEN MAYBE WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THU AS A BETTER S/WV MOVES INTO THE ERN US. WARM WEEK ON TAP W/ TEMPS AROUND 80 (COOLER AT THE COAST) AND MINS IN THE 60S. CWF: 4 TO 5 FT SWELL CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FLOW IS LIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SLY DURING SUN...W/ SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS. THE SWELL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NO FLAGS FCSTID = 29 ILM 77 63 79 63 / 30 20 30 20 LBT 79 61 80 61 / 30 20 30 20 FLO 80 61 81 62 / 30 20 30 20 MYR 75 64 77 64 / 30 20 30 20 .ILM... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. PFAFF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA 415 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002 INITIAL NRN STREAM VORT CENTER IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH FAR NRN NEW ENGLAND PER WV IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT (DEEPER MOIST AXIS) EXTENDS S OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO JUST E OF THE VA/NC BORDER...THEN BUCKLES MORE W-E OVER NC WHERE AIRMASS BECOMES LESS BAROCLINIC (TROUGH WASHES OUT) UNDER INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE THAT MAY CLIP THE NC OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST (06Z) ETA/RUC PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL (COASTAL) FRONT IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. NEVERTHELESS...AVN/ETA QG CHARTS SHOW SUBTLE 300-200 MB DIVERGENCE (WEAK DPVA) AND ASSOCIATED WEAK OMEGA AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER THIS REGION...WHILE MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BY THE AFTN...SECOND ROUND OF NRN STREAM FORCING COMMENCES AS THE 80-90KT 300 MB JET STREAK SHIFTS FROM SRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE REGION (CURRENTLY) TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE/850-500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE)...THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WELL S OF THE UPPER JET CORE. STILL...ADDED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ALONG WITH THE GOOD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO SHABBY...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES CLIMBING BTWN 500-1000 J/KG...PWATS TO AROUND 1.3"...AND LI'S LOWERING TO NEAR -2C THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE OVER THE SE ZONES RESULTS IN HIGHER MODEL CAPES...NEAR 2000 J/KG (LI'S NEAR -3C) PER THE ETA. CAPE IS ESSENTIALLY THE "TALL/SKINNY" VARIETY...AS ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP DISTRIBUTION (RELATIVELY HIGH EL'S...NEAR 35KFT). TOTAL-TOTALS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM DO NOT SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFT STRENGTH... THUS EXPECT TSTMS TO BE MORE ISOLATED. TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING (WEAK) QG FORCING...WITH THE TSTM MENTION DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE INSTBY PARAMETERS REMAIN SUFFICIENT. MONDAY...DYNAMICAL SUPPORT PULLS AWAY...AS LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW VERSES S. THERMODYNAMICS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...AS +14C 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MORE 80+ F READINGS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE DYNAMICAL FORCING EXPECT SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE) THAT ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 30% POPS IN ALL AREAS... THOUGH THE TRENDS FROM THE RECENT (00Z) MODELS HAS BEEN FOR MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THE LATEST AVN SHOWS WEAK SFC-700 MB TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THU (WHICH GIVEN THE INSTBY IN PLACE WOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TRIGGER FOR SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES). FOR NOW WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT THIS WITH ANOTHER (12Z) MODEL SUITE. MARINE FORECAST...NO FLAGS. FCSTID = 13 SBY 75 60 77 60 / 40 40 30 20 OXB 72 60 74 58 / 40 40 30 20 ECG 78 62 81 63 / 30 30 30 20 ORF 78 63 81 63 / 30 30 30 20 PHF 77 62 80 61 / 30 30 30 20 AKQ 80 61 82 61 / 40 30 30 20 RIC 79 61 81 61 / 40 30 30 20 FVX 77 60 80 60 / 40 40 30 20 .AKQ... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. HURLEY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1015 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002 STRATUS IS HANGING IN LONGER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...THUS THE EASTERN HALF GETTING A HEAD START ON HEATING AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST TO DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS. TLH 12Z SOUNDING PARAMETERS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. RUC INDICATES THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA IS WEAKENING AS PROGGED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKER CIRCULATION AROUND THE SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LA AS WELL. STILL... WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR AFTN INTO EVENING STORMS. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THAT APPEARS REASONABLE. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE IN-LINE WITH CURRENT MARINE FCST. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. MME fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1128 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INCLUDES -SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS TNGT. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK SHRTWV XTND FM S LK HURON ACRS THE MS VALLEY INTO N TX. ANOTHER LTL STRONGER SHRTWV IS OVR MN RACING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS WHILE EMBEDDED IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MPX WSR-88D AND THE LGT DETECTION NETWORK ARE INDC SCT -TSRA OVR MPX AREA IN ASSOC WITH THIS SHRTWV. A CLOSED LOW HAS MOVED ASHORE OVR S BC...WHILE ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW HAS SETTLED INTO SE PAC...OFF THE CST OF BAJA. MEANWHILE...SFC ANLYS DEPICTING A LOW OVR W ONT...WITH A WRMFNT STRETCHING ACRS NE WI INTO SE LWR MI. A CDFNT IS ALSO RUNS ACRS S CAN AND A TROF SWINGING THRU DKTS AND THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE MN SHRTWV WILL MOV INTO W CWA BY EARLY AFTN AND TO CNTRL PART BY 00Z. 300K ISENTROPIC ANLYS KEEPING A FAIR AMNTS OF UVM OVR FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE OMEGA AHD OF SHRTV ALSO SUPPORTS THIS. THE -TSRA OVR MN WAS EMBEDDED ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E RDG. THE RUC/ETA SHOWING THE MAIN PART OF THIS RDG WILL SLIDE TO THE SW OF CWA THIS AFTN. THE WEAKER N PART WILL STILL SLIDE ACRS CWA THIS AFTN. ETA PROG K-VALUES TO REACH 30 THIS AFTN OVR W AND CNTRL CWA. CAPE VALUES AND LAPSE RATE BTWN 850-500MB ARE STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A TSRA OR TWO ACRS CWA. IR SHOWING ONE BAND OF CLDS MOVING THRU CWA ATTM...AND THE SECOND ASSOC WITH THE SHRTWV OVR MN...WILL SLIDE THRU THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA WITH A MENTION OF -TSRA. ETA INDC THE SHRTWV WILL MOV E OF CWA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ETA BRINGS ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS CWA OVRNGT. COND WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH THIS SECOND SHRTWV...AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN BHND THE TROF. 850-500MB Q-VEC MOSTLY DIVERGENCE ACRS CWA OVRNGT. ETA PROGGED PROFILE SHOWING DRY BLO 500MB...WITH MST COND ABV. THUS MID AND HI CLDS ARE LIKELY OVRNGT. THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THUS...WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON THIS. DO NOT XPC ANY PCPN OVRNGT. .MQT...NONE. DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC 957 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002 CURRENT RADAR AND STLT LOOPS DEPICTING A SERIES OF WEAK MESOSCALE VORTS ON WESTERN PERIPHERAL OF BERMUDA HIGH. FEATURES ARE TRIGGERING WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA OFF THE SC/NC COAST. ETA/RUC DIFFER IN LOCATION OF THE VORT BUT BOTH DRIFT THEM N/E AND WEAKEN THEM. CONTINUITY IS POOR AT BEST. WILL UPDATE ONLY TO DELETE MORNING FOG WORDING REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. CWF: BERMUDA HIGH STILL THE DOMINANT FACTOR TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT 10-15 KT S-SE WIND TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH 4-5 FT ELY SWELLS. SHOWERS WERE MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM BUT MIGRATING NWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES EXPECTED. FCSTID = 01 ILM 77 63 79 63 / 30 20 30 20 LBT 79 61 80 61 / 30 20 30 20 FLO 80 61 81 62 / 30 20 30 20 MYR 75 64 77 64 / 30 20 30 20 .ILM... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. RWA/CRM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1100 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2002 GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER CWA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH CWA TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER MOST AREAS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION. BASICALLY LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE WITH EXCEPTION OF BUMPING UP FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE CURRENT TRENDS...2 METER ETA DATA...RUC SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECASTED HIGHS. LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL CWA...BUT LEFT ALONE IN FAR WEST WHERE BETTER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD PROMOTE BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. .ABR...NONE. MARSILI sd SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 117 PM MDT SUN APR 14 2002 ...POTENTIAL FOR WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK... ...VERY ACTIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE WX PATTERN PROJECT FOR THIS WEEK... CURRENTLY: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWING VIGOROUS ULJ OVER THE PACIFIC NW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SFC WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP(5-15KTS) AND MORE LIKELY THERMALLY DRIVEN THAN SYNOPTICALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH THE LACK OF TURBULENT MIXING...BUT STILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN TIME TO GO. TNGT: 80-110KT ULJ OVER PACIFIC NW MOVES EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES DURING THE NGT. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN ERN CO/WRN KS LATER TNGT. MID LEVEL WINDS DON'T START TO PICK UP (500MB/>25 KTS) UNTIL MON AM. SUSPECT THERE WOULD BE SOME LOWER ELEVATION WIND DECOUPLING(TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE WINDS) AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANY "SIGNIFICANT" WINDS LOCATED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS(AOA 9K FT MSL). CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TNGT. MON-MON NGT: STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS DAY. HOWEVER...THERE A FEW MINOR CHANGES IN THE MODELS. LATEST TREND IS TO KEEP THE ULJ AXIS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER W-NWD. 500MB WINDS NOW PROGGED TO ONLY BE 30-50KTS FROM E-W ACROSS CWFA...RESPECTFULLY. SYNOPTIC/MESO-SCALE PATTERN STILL HAS A POTENTIAL TO PROMOTE MUCH ABOVE MID APR TEMPS...SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES...AND WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH DURING MON AFTN-EVE. WITH THIS POTENTIAL...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL PUB FIRE WEATHER ZONES...MON 9AM-10PM. LITTLE OR NO POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. THINKING HERE IS THIS COULD BE A BIG FIRE WEATHER WEEK. MON NGT...NEXT ULJ TAKES AIM ON THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE THE ETA HAS A LITTLE ULJ(70-80KTS) AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE/THERMAL TROUGH HEADS TOWARDS WRN CO FOR TUE. DEEP MOD SWLY FLOW PROGGED FOR THE NGT. IF THE SYNOPTIC WINDS PROJECTED VERIFY...COULD BE A MILD NGT WITH POOR RH RECOVERY. ALSO...COULD SEE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MELT DURING THE NGT. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN HOVERING AROUND 32F DURING THE PAST FEW NGTS. AGAIN...CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL NEED TO ADD DETAILED WINDS FOR MON NGT(3RD PERIOD). TUE-TUE NGT: INTERESTING DAY HERE. ETA HAS THE LITTLE 70-80KT "JETLET" MOVING ACROSS NRN NM WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE/THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CO DURING PEAK HEATING. AVN HINTS AT THIS... BUT NOT AS STRONG. SFC CYCLONE PROGGED OVER NWRN KS WITH ATTENTIVE COLD FRONT HEADING S TOWARDS CWFA TUE AFTN. ANY DECENT MOISTURE WOULD BE FOUND ABV 700MB TUE AFTN. MOD-STG MID LEVEL LAPSE(8.0- 9.5C/KM) PROGGED AND IS IN RESPONSE TO "COLD" THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AREA DURING MAX HEATING WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAPID DESTABLIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. CAPE ALONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE 200-400 J/KG...WHICH ISN'T THE GREATEST. HELICITY COULD COMPENSATE FOR THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES. 0-3KM HELICITY FORECAST TO BE 150-250 M2/S2...SO POTENTIAL FOR MESO- CYCLONE/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE POSSIBLE IF EVERYTHING IS JUXTAPOSED CORRECTLY. 30-35KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR FCST IN IN E CNTRL CO AROUND KITR AT 21Z TUE AFTN...BUT THEN THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP SHEAR SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HIGH BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE "VIRGA BOMB" POTENTIAL AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON TUE NGT...NEXT ULJ "RELOADS" IN THE PACIFIC NW PER ETA EXTENSION AND AVN. BACK INTO THE W-SWLY FLOW. COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY EVE SHRA/TSRA IN RESPONSE TO INSTABILITY/SHALLOW COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS SERN CO MTNS. WED: BACK INTO THE DEEP/MOD-VIGOROUS SWLY FLOW WED. NEXT ULJ CONTINUES TO DIG IN PACIFIC NW AS CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE OLD ECWMF SOLUTIONS. 500MB WINDS PROGGED TO BE 40-45KTS ACROSS CWFA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER ITS INTERESTING THE ETA IS NOT PRINTING OUT ANY QPF FOR WED AFTN. TIME WILL TELL. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POP WORDING. THU-SUN: AS WITH THE CHANGE OF THE CALENDAR DAY...SO DOES THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. LATEST AVN NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE OLD ECWMF RUNS... BUT THE AVN'S CLOSED LOW IS FURTHER E IN THE GREAT BASIN THU-FRI. YDA'S ECWMF CLOSES THE LOW AND SITS IT OUT IN WRN US THROUGH SAT AM. BY 12Z/FRI...AVN PROGS A DEEP CYCLONE OVER UT. IF THE AVN VERIFIES...STILL TOUGH TO GET MOISTURE IN SRN CO. SRN CO PROGGED TO BE IN MASSIVE "DRY" SLOT WITH ASSOCIATED 100-110KT ULJ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. VERY "DRY" MID LEVEL AIR MASS(20% RH OR LESS/500-300MB LYR) SOURCE EXTENDING FROM PACIFIC OCEAN TO DESERT SW INTO SRN CO. IF PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS FCST FOR WY AND NEARBY STATES. THU COULD BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. CURRENT FRI FCST COULD BE WAY TOO COOL WITH TOO MUCH PRECIP POTENTIAL...IF LATEST AVN VERIFIES. TIME WILL TELL. .PUB...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222... 223...224...AND 225(MTNS/SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RVR VLYS)...MONDAY... 9AM-10PM MDT. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1037 AM MDT SUN APR 14 2002 WL BE UPDATING TEMPS AND WINDS. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS SFC TROF PUSHES THROUGH. SFC ANAL SHOWS NEXT LEE TROF ALREADY DVLPG. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND CLOSEST TO REALITY SEEMS TO BE THE RUC. SO WL CHANGE WINDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS AND THE RUC. ERN CWFA LOOKS TO KEEP SOME KIND OF WLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY. HWVR...WRN PTNS LOOK TO HAVE LGT AND VRBL TO NORTH WINDS SWINGING ARND TO THE SOUTH LATE. SO WRN CWFA WL NOT GET DOWNSLOPE HELP. 12Z SOUNDINGS WOULD POINT TO COOLR THAN FCST READINGS IN THE WEST. SO WL KEEP MAXES THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLR THAN CURRENT FCST IN WEST...AND ADJUST MAXES UP A LTL IN ERN CWFA DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS. .GLD...NONE. BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 500 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2002 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE ENDING -SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TUE NIGHT AND WED. WV IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVG INTO WRN WI AND ERN MN ATTM. AHD OF SHRTWV...RADAR LOOP SHOWS AREA OF SHRA FM CNTRL U.P. EXTENDING INTO SW WI. BEST INSTABILITY GENLY HAS STAYED SOUTH OF FA WHERE DWPNTS OVR NCNTRL WI IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. LIGHTNING NOTED FM KRHI SOUTH ALG LINE OF CONVECTION. .TONIGHT...18Z RUC AND ETA SEEM TO PICK UP ON BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWING SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND -2C OVR NCNTRL AND NE WI WHERE BETTER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOW. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY BRUSHES SCNTRL AND SE U.P. ZONES THIS EVENING AS SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS FA. WL KEEP SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TRW MENTIONED EARLYFOR IMT-MUNISING EWD...OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BCM PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DNVA/RDGG AND ASSOC SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHRTWV. WITH RAIN FM TODAY AND SFC PRES GRAD SLACKENING WITH APPROACHING RDG...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM LATER THIS EVNG ACROSS FA. .MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...5H RDG HGTS BLD OVR CNTRL CONUS AS SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS INTO SW STATES. IN RESPONSE WARM 850 MB AIR FM NE/KS ADVECTS INTO WRN GRT LAKES AS FLOW BCMS MORE SWLY FOR THE ERY WEEK. 850 MB THERMAL RDG BCMS CNTRD OVR FA WITH TEMPS RISING TO 16-18C PER ETA AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS RISE INTO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S! THIS STG CAP WILL KEEP UPR MI DRY AND QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE ERY WEEK. USED ETA 2M TEMPS AS GUIDE FOR FCSTG MAX TEMPS AS AVN MOS LOOKS ABOUT 10F TOO LOW MOST AREAS. WENT GENLY 68 TO 75 NORTH WITH 75 TO 80 SW...COOLER TEMPS IN MID 50S EXPECTED ALG LAKE MI IN SLY ONSHORE FLOW THERE. AS 850 MB JET OF 35-45 KTS PASSES OVR FA LATE MON AND MON NIGHT...EXPECT SOME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO REACH SFC RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDS MON NIGHT THRU TUE. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS MORE VIGOROUS ENERGY CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT WRN CONUS TROF...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHRTWV FM SRN PLAINS GETS EJECTED NWD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT RIDING ALG STATIONARY FNT OVR NRN PLAINS AND SRN ONTARIO. CDFNT FINALLY GETS PROPELLED EWD PER 12Z AVN AND UKMET. CONVERGENCE ALG FRONT WILL BE FOCUS FOR AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS IT PASSES THRU FA. DUE TO LACK OF NEG TILT WITH SHRTWV TROF AND SW/NE ORIENTATION OF SFC CDFNT...BELIEVE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DRAW AS MUCH DEEP MSTR INTO IT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS ALSO CONFIRM THIS THOUGHT DROPPING ANYWHERE FM .25 TO .40 INCH AT BEST. .EXTENDED...RDG POPS BACK OVR FA FOR THU AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES EVEN MORE OVR WRN CONUS. SERIES OF SHRTWVS FM SW RIDE UP BACK OF RDG THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SFC SYSTEM FM PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES OVER AREA. LEFT IN CHC OF SHRA FOR FRI WHICH AVN EXTENSION AND MRF/UKMET OPERATIONAL AND MRF ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL BRING IN COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SAT AND SUN FOR DRIER BUT COOLER CONDS NEXT WEEKEND. COORD WITH APX...THANKS. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi