AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1007 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005 .MORNING UPDATE... MID CLOUDS HAVE PULLED OUT OF SDF AND BWG...BUT ALTOCUMULUS STILL HANGING IN ERN CWA. AT 13Z LEX IS STILL 080 OVC. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT ILN AND DTX DENOTED NORTH TO NELY FLOW IN THE 0-1KM LAYER WITH BACKING WINDS. HAND ANALYSIS AT H8 SHOWS PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AT H8...AND WITH A TRIGGER TEMP OF 74...CU SHOULD BE FORMING AHEAD OF GIANT COLD CLOUD STREETS OF CU/SC OVER WESTERN NY THROUGH ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO MICHIGAN. THE RUC80 HAS A NORTH FLOW AT H8 WHICH WILL ALLOW CU TO DRIFT SWD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE DURING THE AFTN. WITH H5 TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND THE LLVL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP PARTLY SUNNY WORDING IN...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS...& TWEAK THE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ISSUE NEW ZFPS. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .KY...NONE. && JDG/SEE ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 750 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON... MUCH QUIETER NIGHT THAN PAST COUPLE...THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING FROM CENTRAL MT TOWARD SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/TS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WARM LAYER AROUND 400MB HAS KEPT EVERYTHING LOW-TOPPED AND RELATIVELY BENIGN TO THIS POINT. IT APPEARS THAT RIDGING WILL WORK INTO THE WEST/SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THIS AREA AFTER 06Z. FURTHER EAST...THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG YET PER LAPS/RUC). THE NAM AND RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET (NEAR 750MB) LIFTING OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDEED SHOWS BACKING OF 750MB WINDS AND CONVERGENCE BEGINNING TO SET UP TO THE EAST OF BILLINGS. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE...WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS GOING EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...AND IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT (WHERE FOCUS OF LLJ SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z). WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING IN NORTHEAST WYOMING RIGHT NOW. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE MTS ON SUNDAY. DRY FCST FOR SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTION EVERYWHERE BY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS NEXT WAVE COMES THROUGH. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT... MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THEN SOME DISAGREEMENT BECOMES APPARENT WITH THE HANDLING OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORT-WAVES KNOCKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND RELEASING THE BLOCK ALLOWING FOR MORE WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION. THE GFS MODEL IS NOW SHOWING THE SHORT- WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS TO BE ADDRESSED BY FUTURE SHIFTS WILL INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT WIND DIFFERENCES DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL...BUT WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SHOWING UP IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WE CAN DETERMINE MORE SPECIFICS ABOUT POTENTIAL CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD SO AS NOT TO DEVIATE FROM THE RANGE OF THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CARPENTER && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ROUTES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM KSHR-KBIL-KBTM BUT ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KBIL-KBHK THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT DO EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR CONDITIONS. HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/081 058/086 061/092 059/091 057/085 053/082 052/084 20/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 20/U 00/B LVM 043/076 048/084 050/087 052/087 050/080 047/077 047/082 22/T 23/T 32/T 23/T 22/T 22/T 00/B HDN 057/084 059/087 062/095 062/094 058/089 053/085 055/087 20/B 22/T 20/B 02/T 22/T 20/U 00/U MLS 059/083 059/090 063/095 063/095 059/089 054/084 057/087 20/U 11/B 20/B 02/T 22/T 10/U 00/U 4BQ 059/086 059/093 062/094 061/096 058/089 055/086 056/088 20/B 22/T 20/B 02/T 22/T 10/B 00/U BHK 058/080 057/086 061/090 060/093 057/086 053/081 052/084 20/U 12/T 20/B 02/T 22/T 10/U 00/U SHR 053/087 056/090 058/091 055/091 052/086 050/082 049/087 21/B 22/T 21/U 02/T 22/T 20/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1018 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... ADJACENT MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT CHS ATM PROFILE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATE THE UPPER S/W TROF OVER EASTERN GA-SOUTHERN SC AT THE MOMENT. MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAKE IT ACROSS COASTAL ILM CWA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS AROUND MIDDAY...AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ALIGN POPS...AND CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED TSRA INLAND. CLOUD DECK AT THE MOMENT LIMITING INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY BUT SHULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAYS TIME FRAME. SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP IN ITS PLACE. WILL GO WITH PTLY SUNNY. CURRENT MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON THE BALL. && .MARINE... THE TWO CORMP BUOYS EXTENDING OFFSHORE FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH ARE REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT...WHILE THE CARO-COOPS BUOY OFF SUNSET BEACH IS REPORTING MORE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS RIGHT AROUND 10 KT. AS A RESULT...PLAN TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS...AND EAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT THROUGHOUT. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST COMBINED WITH INLAND HEATING/SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH III SEAS APPEAR A BIT HIGH...AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENTLY FORECAST SEAS OF 2-3 FT NORTH AND 1-2 FT SOUTH. && .AVIATION... THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO AS LOW AS 6 MILES IN HAZE AT BOTH KMYR AND KCRE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...DCH MARINE...JAQ AVIATION...JAQ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 855 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 .CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW... 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH NIL PRESSURE RISES/FALLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FEATURE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED 250MB 120 JET MAX PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO SASK PROVINCE WITH ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH ML CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG...SHOWALTERS -7 AND LI'S -8 TO -10 IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY. .SHORT TERM... TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION GETS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWFA OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS GREATER +12C WITH NO PROJECTED MAJOR EROSION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS STORMS FIRING OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHERE CAP IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LACKING SURFACE CONVERGENCE/850MB WAA/STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE TO BE THE MAIN TRIGGER TO GET CONVECTION GOING. TOUGH CALL AT THIS TIME WHETHER THIS WILL MATERIALIZE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BEFORE MAKING ANY REVISIONS TO OVERNIGHT ZONES. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/WIND ADVISORY (UNTIL 9 PM) FOR ALL ND COUNTIES. MN...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR ALL MN COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY (UNTIL 9 PM) FOR ALL MN COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE RED RIVER. && $$ BERG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1035 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 .DISCUSSION... ALREADY ISSUED MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST AND ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. KMVX WSR88D SHOWING 30-40KTS IN THE LOWEST GATES THIS MORNING AND THE KBIS 12Z SOUNDING ALSO HAD SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL WINDS. ALSO TOOK AN URGENT PILOT REPORT ABOUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KGFK. 12Z RUC/NAM SHOWING 35-40KTS AT 850 MB THRU THE DAY TODAY ALONG WITH GOOD SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WATCHED OBS FROM KBIS/KMOT YESTERDAY...AND THEY PUSHED INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AN OB OR TWO. KIND OF EXPECTING THE SAME SCENARIO TODAY...NOT A LOT OF HIGH GUSTS...BUT SOME SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30 MPH. LIKELY ONE OF THOSE MARGINAL CASES...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE NO CHANGES. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ND COUNTIES. MN...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR ALL MN COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL MN COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE RED RIVER. && $$ GODON nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 818 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... WITH THE ONSET OF DUSK...DAYTIME DRIVEN CU HAS FIZZLED OUT OVR MUCH OF THE FA...MAINLY W OF THE MTNS. 18Z WSETA AND 21Z RUC40 BOTH ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS IN NRN PA AND OH NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY FARTHER S...SO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MCLR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. IN THE MTNS...OPTED FOR A LATER ONSET IN PART TO MID CLOUDS HANGING AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. 23Z SFC OBS SHOW DWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 50S AND WITH LIGHT FG EXPECTED AT MOST AIRPORTS INC MINT A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z MAV...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MINS UP 2F AT MOST LOCATIONS TNGT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 713 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) AVIATION... THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING SOON AFTERWARD. SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG IS A POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS RECEIVING SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING OFF TO OUR NORTH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO BRING DRY AND COOL AIR ALOFT. THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SO...THE ONLY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOR THE AFTERNOON LEFTOVERS. PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AT SOME AREAS. PLAYED COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL...AND SOUTH SECTIONS. INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN AND AMPLITUDE TO RIDGE LESSEN. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS PLACING A LARGE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE MIDWEST WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG WEST COAST. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLER PACIFIC AIR MASS EXTENDS FROM NWRN ND TO KRAP IN SD. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH IN A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS OF 15C DEWPOINTS AT 850MB PLANTED IN-SITU WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OF 22C+. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 3500J/KG MLCAPE IN THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 18Z. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAYS AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 4-5C SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM WEST TO EAST. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH A SLIGHT CLOUD INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. LATEST EC/GFS/DEV RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS ARE ALL GROUPED TOGETHER ON A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY MOVING TO NEAR KDBQ BY 12Z TUE. 12Z NAM/ETA IS A BIT DIFFERENT AS IT CREATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MN...TRIGGERED ON THE FRONT AND ADVANCING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE MCS SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN ERN SD SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO SUPPORT AN MCS SHIFTING SOUTH INTO IA/NEB EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM WANTS TO SHIFT AND INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70F+ PRE-FRONTALLY. THESE DEWPOINTS SEEM TOO HIGH BASED ON NAM RECENT BIAS AND CURRENT VERIFICATION IN THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER..ITS FRONT...DEFINED BY ANOTHER WIND SHIFT AND DEWPOINT DECREASE REFLECTING THE AIR MASS CHANGE IS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODEL TIMING. BOTTOM LINE IS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DECAY OF THE MCS IF IT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF WETTING RAIN ON THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH CURRENT TIMING...PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY IS WEAKER OVERNIGHT /MLCAPE AROUND 1500J/KG/ AND MLCIN WILL BE INCREASING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING /50-100 J/KG/. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY /WRLY/ AND SUPPORTS NO ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF THE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT AND GENERATION. THEREFORE...GRIDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TIMING DETAIL BUT CONFIDENCE KEEPS THE WETTING RAIN CHANCES STILL NEAR 30 PERCENT. SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL TIMING...BUT NAM TIMING MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE A BIT OF COLD POOL WIND THREAT IF IT VERIFIES. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INTENSITY AND WAVELENGTH OF THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA DECREASES DURING THIS DAY4-7 PERIOD WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING A BIT MORE VULNERABLE TO THE WESTERLIES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DRAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL...THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR WITH A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SMALL CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AIR ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. A NUMBER OF IMPULSES MAY DRAG THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THESE DETAILS. OVERALL IT WILL BE A WARM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF RAIN THU/FRI. AS THESE DAYS APPROACH...MORE DETAILS CAN BE EXTRACTED ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE THREATS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM THU-SAT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BAUMGARDT wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 245 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NERN GOMEX... AS SEEN ON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY. VORT ENERGY DIVING S-SSW INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE FEATURE IS CAUSING IT TO ELONGATE...WHICH IS ENHANCING AN H25 JETMAX (80KT+) ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. RUC H25 ANLYS FIELDS SHOW DIVG ASCD WITH THE TAIL OF THE RR QUAD OF THE JET HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SERN ATLC SEABOAD SWD INTO FL AND CONTINUING SWWD ACROSS CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN. AT THE SFC...A RATHER DIFFUSE (TD) FRONTAL BDRY EXTENDS FROM DESTIN TO ST. SIMONS ISLAND WITH THE SFC RIDGE TO THE SOTUH BECOMING ILL-DEFINED. OVER THE LAST FEW HRS...LOCAL 88D MOSAIC HAS SHOWED NEW CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE NATRUE COAST...MOVING EWD AT A DECENT CLIP TWD THE NRN CWA. TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE VORT CENTER CURRENTLY DROPPING SWD ACROSS GA REACHING THE FL/GA BORDER AREA THEN SPREADING INTO NORTH FL WHILST ELONGATING LATE THIS AFTN. THE UPPER JET POSN SEEMS TO FAVOR WEAK FORCED ASCENT OVER CTRL FL... AND STRONGER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS INDICATE MEAN PWAT A TENTH OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 1.5" @18Z...WITH HIGHER VALUES AS ONE HEADS INTO SOUTH FL. H50 TEMPS SHOW LTL CHG (-8C TO -9C) FROM SAT...AT LEAST THIS FAR SOUTH ACROSS ECFL. TAKING INTO ACCT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...HAVE PUT IN SOME EARLY MORNING POPS (SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS) ACROSS THE NRN CWA 12Z-15Z...THEN PAINTED SCT EVRYWHERE FROM 15Z ONWARD. IN SPITE OF THE CURRENT 88D TRENDS...STILL FEEL THAT SRN CWA SHOULD SEE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TODAY. CURRENT GRIDDED POPS OF 40 NORTH-60 SOUTH SPLIT THE DIFF SOMEHWHAT BTWN THE LOWER MAV (30) AND HIGHER MET (50-60). GIVEN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...AM TEMPTED TO RAISE THE NORTH TO 50...AND MAY DO SO SHOULD CURRENT SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUE UNABATED TWD OUR NRN CWA. MON-WED...AS PER THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE...NAM IS THE PREFERRED MODEL DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND SUBSEQUENT SPURIOUS LOW DEVELOPMENT EXHIBITED BY THE GFS. UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH. ACTIVE JET ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL HELP TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD BY MIDWEEK...PLACING THE CWA IN 2.2+ INCH PWAT AIR. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT EARLY-MID WEEK WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THU-SAT...ANOMALOUS TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...POPS NEAR CLIMO SEEM REASONABLE. SOMETHING TO ALSO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS A CUTOFF LOW WILL PINCH OFF FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .MARINE...NON-HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SURGES IN THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION...BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT ON AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS IN THE 06Z TAFS FROM PREV FCST. LOOKS TO BE SCT TO NMRS IFR TSRA A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY WITH LCLLY STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 71 88 73 / 40 20 40 20 MCO 91 72 89 72 / 40 30 40 20 MLB 88 73 88 72 / 40 30 50 30 VRB 89 73 87 72 / 50 30 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI LONG TERM....HIRSCH fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 217 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CLOUDS/HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER FLOW. UPPER TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST HAS SUNK SOUTH AND WEST FROM YESTERDAYS POSITION WHILE EASTERN UPPER LOW HAS DUG TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...UPPER RIDGE HAS AMPLIFIED OVER US WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS DRY AIR GOES CLEAR DOWN INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS DECIDES TO DO. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO YESTERDAY WHERE THERE WAS SOME 700 TO 500 MB MOISTURE. FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DOING ABOUT THE SAME WITH GFS DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...ALL MODELS LOOK REASONABLY INITIALIZED. HOWEVER...THE UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM WAS WAS TOO HIGH ON HEIGHTS OVER US. THE ONE PLACE THAT THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET WAS ON THE PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL THREE MODELS DID NOT HAVE RIDGE BROAD ENOUGH AND HIGH ENOUGH HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGELINE. MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE DRY AIR THAT IS ABOVE 700 MB QUITE RIGHT EITHER. IT SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER WITH THIS. ALSO THE UKMET/GFS WERE DOING BETTER ON 700 MB TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY WERE TOO WARM AT DEN AND SLIGHTLY TOO COOL OVER US. THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER ON THE DEWPOINTS. AT LOW LEVELS... THE NAM/UKMET LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST ON PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. NAM WAS HIGHER ON DEWPOINTS...AND MAYBE A TAD TOO HIGH BUT WAS BETTER. THE RUC40 WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE NAM DEWPOINTS EARLY ON. IN GENERAL MODELS INITIALIZED TOO WARM ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. NAM/GFS TENDED TO DO BETTER OVER OUR AREA WITH THE NAM DOING BETTER FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE SOURCE REGION OF OUR AIR IS. WILL TEND TO BLEND THE GFS/UKMET/NAM WITH GFS/UKMET BETTER AT MID/UPPER LEVELS... THE UKMET/NAM ON WIND FIELDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURES...AND THE GFS/UKMET ON PRECIPITATION. TODAY/TONIGHT...NAM VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS FIELD. IT WAS ALSO COOLER ON TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHEN THE STRATUS BREAKS WILL AGAIN BE KEY TO TEMPERATURES. NAM/RUC WANT TO BREAK THE CLOUDS BY 18Z WHICH IS WHAT THEY DID YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH IT BEING MORE MOIST AT THE BOTTOM...AND ABOUT THE SAME AT 700 MB. COMPARING THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS TO THE LBF/DDC SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT THEY DO NOT HAVE THE INVERSION ALOFT STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE NAM THE WORST. GFS/NAM WANT TO DECREASE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALSO GET RID OF THE INVERSION AS WELL. CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THINK THAT IS IN ERROR AND LIKE THE UKMET KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ABOUT THE SAME. EVEN IF THE CLOUDS BREAK EARLIER...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW A BIG WARMUP EVEN WITH VERY MILD READINGS AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND THE MODELS WARM INITIAL ANALYSIS...WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND HAVE ALREADY COLLABORATED THAT. NAM/RUC13 NOT AS EXCITED TONIGHT ABOUT STRATUS AND ARE LOWER ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. CONSIDERING SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE... WILL GO FOR CLOUD COVER AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT. PLAN ON NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE WILL HAVE STRATUS AROUND DURING THE MORNING. IF THERE IS NOT AS MUCH AS I THINK THERE WILL BE...THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE WARMED UP. ONE DIFFERENCE ON MONDAY WILL BE THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER US WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THINK THE COOLING ALOFT BY THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS NOT REASONABLE. SURFACES WILL ALSO NOT ALLOW A BIG WARMUP ALTHOUGH SHOULD START FAIRLY WARM. IF FULL SUNSHINE IS REALIZED THEN THE MAV TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE BUT THINK THEY ARE TOO WARM. PLAN ON GOING BELOW GUIDANCE. NAM WANTS TO BRING PRECIPITATION... ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. BELIEVE THIS IS ERROR SINCE BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT BE AS FAR SOUTH AS IT SAYS IT WILL BE. PLUS WILL HAVE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NAM COOLS TEMPERATURES/WEAKENS CAP... AND VERY DRY ABOVE 700 MB PER THE GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS IS THE DAY THAT WILL PROBABLY WARM UP... MAYBE. RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD AND WILL HAVE A WARM START. LOOK TO HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS DAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT GET ANY HELP WITH THE WIND FIELD THROUGH MID LEVELS. PLAN ON GOING BELOW THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR THIS DAY. MILD MINS ONCE AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. .NE...NONE. .CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 440 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM TEMPS TO SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RDG FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO BTWN TROFS OVER THE E COAST AND PAC NW. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW HAS INCREASED BTWN A RDG FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN LWR MI AND A FRONT/TROF FROM CNTRL MANITOBA TO NW SD. IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MI WITH AN AREAS OF SC TO THE EAST...VCNTY KANJ/KCIU. TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WAA ON INCREASING SRLY WINDS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ACRS UPR MI. TEMPS...ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES...INTO LOWER TO MID 80S LOOK ON TRACK BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS FCST NEAR 15C-16C AND UPSTREAM MAX READINGS OVER SRN MN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WHERE MIXING TO 800 MB OCCURRED. 950 MB S WINDS OF ONLY 10-15 KTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO MOVE JUST ONSHORE OVER N CNTRL UPR MI WITH TEMPS SLIPPING INTO THE 70S. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL OCCUR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EAST OF KESC WHERE WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS WITH BNDRY LAYER WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY WARM...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREEZY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS VCNTY OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RDG REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NW OF UPPER MI BUT MAY GRAZE NRN LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHRTWV ENERGY FROM THE NRN PLAINS HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RDG. MON...MODELS HAVE CONVERGED WITH TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT OF A PREFRONTAL TROF INTO UPPER MI. WHILE MORE CAPPED LOOK OF GFS SOUNDINGS STILL SEEMS MORE REALISTIC...EXPECT THAT WEAK SHRTWVS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAKS TO THE NORTH AND OUTFLOW OR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY AND OVER CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH AND TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AS EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WOULD STILL PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. MID LEVEL WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 700-600 DRY LAYER WOULD FAVOR MAINLY STRONG WIND THREAT AS FREEZING LEVEL IS VERY HIGH AOA 15K FT. LOWER END POPS STILL ARE ON TRACK GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND MARGINAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN CONSENSUS SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND SLOWER DEPARTURE OF PCPN...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER SRN UPR MI...AT LEAST THROUGH TUE MORNING. DEVELOPING NRLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR INTO N UPR MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE...WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 338 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE CWA DRY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND THE 80 MARK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... STRONG WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...GIVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FINALLY GETS KICKED EASTWARD. THE KICKER WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH...TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE SHOWING IT'S TYPICAL COLD BIAS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST 2-3 DEGREES HIGHER. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 114 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005) AVIATION... SKIES CLEAR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SCT-BKN060 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. MVFR IN FOG AT BKW TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN. LOOK FOR REST OF AIRPORTS TO FOG BY 12Z. PRETTY MUCH SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. CU AGAIN FORMS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND DYING DOWN TO CALM AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 818 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... WITH THE ONSET OF DUSK...DAYTIME DRIVEN CU HAS FIZZLED OUT OVR MUCH OF THE FA...MAINLY W OF THE MTNS. 18Z WSETA AND 21Z RUC40 BOTH ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS IN NRN PA AND OH NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY FARTHER S...SO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MCLR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. IN THE MTNS...OPTED FOR A LATER ONSET IN PART TO MID CLOUDS HANGING AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. 23Z SFC OBS SHOW DWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 50S AND WITH LIGHT FG EXPECTED AT MOST AIRPORTS INC MINT A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z MAV...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MINS UP 2F AT MOST LOCATIONS TNGT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING OFF TO OUR NORTH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CWA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JMV wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 114 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .AVIATION... SKIES CLEAR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SCT-BKN060 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. MVFR IN FOG AT BKW TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN. LOOK FOR REST OF AIRPORTS TO FOG BY 12Z. PRETTY MUCH SAME SENERIO AS YESTERDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. CU AGAIN FORMS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND DYING DOWN TO CALM AFTER 00Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 818 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... WITH THE ONSET OF DUSK...DAYTIME DRIVEN CU HAS FIZZLED OUT OVR MUCH OF THE FA...MAINLY W OF THE MTNS. 18Z WSETA AND 21Z RUC40 BOTH ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS IN NRN PA AND OH NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY FARTHER S...SO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MCLR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. IN THE MTNS...OPTED FOR A LATER ONSET IN PART TO MID CLOUDS HANGING AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. 23Z SFC OBS SHOW DWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 50S AND WITH LIGHT FG EXPECTED AT MOST AIRPORTS INC MINT A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z MAV...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MINS UP 2F AT MOST LOCATIONS TNGT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 713 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) AVIATION... THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING SOON AFTERWARD. SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG IS A POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS RECEIVING SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING OFF TO OUR NORTH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO BRING DRY AND COOL AIR ALOFT. THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SO...THE ONLY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOR THE AFTERNOON LEFTOVERS. PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AT SOME AREAS. PLAYED COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL...AND SOUTH SECTIONS. INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JS wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 902 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .DISCUSSION... MOSAIC RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TRACKING EAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH MORE SHOWERS WEST OF THE NATURE COAST. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO START DEVELOP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA. VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA AND LARGE SCALE LIFT DUE TO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250MB JET MAX MOVING OVERHEAD WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES COOL POCKET OF AIR/AROUND -8C/AT 500MB WHILE THE LATEST AREA SOUNDINGS WERE ALL SHOWING -9C AT 500MB WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MAGIC -10C FOR AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER AND DEEPER CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT COULD FORM LATER TODAY. LOCATIONS THAT GET A SEA BREEZE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT COULD SEE STORMS GETTING STRONGER AND LIGHTNING INCREASE AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE WEST. SEE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUMMARY OF WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY. CURRENT AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE THAT WILL FRESHEN UP THE WORDING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. && .MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT OVER LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10KT WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN. BOATERS WILL AGAIN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND THIS AFTN. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WIMMER LONG TERM....GLITTO fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1101 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING/S SURFACE AND UPPER AIR MAPS PLACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS A PORTION OF MIDDLE AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT MODEL GUIDANCE. THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS AND RH/S ABOBVE 25 PERCENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C THIS MORNING SHOULD PROCUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SENT UPDATED DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CJC .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005... SURFACE HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. ONLY A FEW CIRRUS AROUND THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)... UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND RIDGE TO THE WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AROUND TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES...TODAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...AS AIRMASS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE. MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT THAT IS IT. WE START SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY...AND AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM A BIT. TEMPS MONDAY ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN TODAY...AND ANOTHER CATEGORY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT MOST AREAS IN THE 90 TO 95 RANGE FOR TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM (BEYOND TUESDAY)... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST...BUT NOT ALL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH NO MOIST INFLOW...AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES...A DRY FORECAST REMAINS THE WAY TO GO. TEMPERATURES...FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER AND H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...H85 TEMPS ABOUT 6C WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT MANY AREAS IN THE MIDDLE 90S...AT LEAST. THESE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MIGHT BE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SUSPECT THAT MOISTURE AROUND H85 MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE LATE IN THE WEEK ON THE GFS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GET RAISED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A FEW AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN DRY... APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. $$ WAGNER tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 632 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .AVIATION... MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG ESPECIALLY AT EKN WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND AT CRW AND BKW WHERE MFVR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PESKY LOW JUST SOUT OF THE REGION WILL KEPT SCT-BKN050 IN THE EKN-BKW LINE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SCT050 ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 00Z. SOME FOG DEVELOPS AGAIN BETWEEN 03Z-06Z IN RIVER VALLEYS WITH EKN-CR HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 338 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE CWA DRY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND THE 80 MARK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... STRONG WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...GIVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FINALLY GETS KICKED EASTWARD. THE KICKER WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH...TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE SHOWING IT'S TYPICAL COLD BIAS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST 2-3 DEGREES HIGHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 114 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005) AVIATION... SKIES CLEAR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SCT-BKN060 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. MVFR IN FOG AT BKW TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN. LOOK FOR REST OF AIRPORTS TO FOG BY 12Z. PRETTY MUCH SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. CU AGAIN FORMS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND DYING DOWN TO CALM AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 818 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... WITH THE ONSET OF DUSK...DAYTIME DRIVEN CU HAS FIZZLED OUT OVR MUCH OF THE FA...MAINLY W OF THE MTNS. 18Z WSETA AND 21Z RUC40 BOTH ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS IN NRN PA AND OH NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY FARTHER S...SO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MCLR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. IN THE MTNS...OPTED FOR A LATER ONSET IN PART TO MID CLOUDS HANGING AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. 23Z SFC OBS SHOW DWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 50S AND WITH LIGHT FG EXPECTED AT MOST AIRPORTS INC MINT A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z MAV...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MINS UP 2F AT MOST LOCATIONS TNGT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005) LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING OFF TO OUR NORTH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CWA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JS wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1021 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .DISCUSSION...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY A BROAD AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SUNSHINE NORTH OF A LINE FROM WRAY COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. THE CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THICKENED UP A BIT OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY WERE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAD VEERED MORE SHARPLY OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...EVEN AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE GFS AND RUC ARE BOTH HANDLING THE SURFACE AND 850 FLOW WELL. GIVEN THE SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH CLOUDS REMAINING THICK OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING MCCOOK...HILL CITY...AND OBERLIN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ALSO NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 80S IN THOSE AREAS...AND ENDED UP WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE WARM SPOT LIKELY TO BE YUMA COLORADO IN THE LOWER 90S. ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO EDITS TO SKY COVER OR WIND WERE NEEDED. NOTED SOME DISCUSSION FROM SPC CONCERNING FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED VERY SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND A RUC SOUNDING FOR YUMA DOES PRODUCE A DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH LITTLE CIN REMAINING. HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN UPSLOPE FLOW...FEEL THAT STORMS WILL HAVE TO INITIATE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO SLOW AND ERRATIC TO REACH YUMA COUNTY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. .NE...NONE. .CO...NONE. && $$ BURKE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 226 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 .SHORT TERM...MAIN PROBLEMS ARE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT CONTINUING TO ERODE ON ITS EASTERN EDGE. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 12Z NAM INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT HAS BEEN...SO THINK ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD SCATTER OUT RATHER QUICKLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS STILL GOING THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH IN TURN DRIVES A BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS KEEPS THIS FURTHER NORTH AND THEN FIRES ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL AGAIN GO CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS...CANADIAN AND MM5...BUT WILL ADD A SMALL POP IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTH DAKOTA COMPLEX MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. .LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A HOT AND DRY PERIOD. THE NAM CONTINUES IN TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINS AN OUT-LIER WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE REALISTICALLY DEFLECT PRECIPITATION UP AND AROUND OUR CWA. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY MID WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL SORE INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. GFS HOLDS THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME...SFC FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH INTO OUR CWA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO 90. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE CHOSEN TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ KING/WESELY ne