INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 230 PM PST MON MAR 03 2003 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE VORT MAX ENERGY FROM THE TROF PUSHING MORE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH NOT MUCH OF THE VALLEY ITSELF. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE COME TO A MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY. ALL THE MODELS PLACE THE VORT MAX AROUND THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING...AS SHOWN ON THE RUC ANALYSIS TREND...AND TRACK IT ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE DISTRICT STILL PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 400 PM AND INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS IS A BIT OF A DRIER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH...QPF VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW. WILL ONLY EXPECT A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE VALLEY AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL TAPER OFF THE SHOWERS TUESDAY...CONFINE THEM TO THE SOUTH END DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE DISTRICT WILL START A DRYING TREND. 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF COOLING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL EXPECT THE HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 60 TODAY AND COOL FURTHER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING GOOD THICKNESS DROPS TUESDAY WHICH WILL PUT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MAX TEMP/S WILL RECOVER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE DISTRICT SEE A SLOW RISE BACK TO NORMAL CONDITIONS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS BECOME BREEZY OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LIGHTER LEVELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MOLINA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRI THRU MON...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BREAKING DOWN SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW. THOUGH RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A DRY PATTERN OVER THE CWA THRU THE WEEKEND...00Z GFS PROJECTS A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH THRU NORCAL LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT IMPACTS ON THE DISTRICT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONFINED TO THE SIERRA NEAR YOSEMITE ON MONDAY. BEAN .HNX...NONE. $$ ca INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 930 AM PST MON MAR 03 2003 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE TROF AXIS OVER EUREKA AND TRACKING SOUTH THIS MORNING. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING WHAT THERE IS OF PRECIP OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY FROM THAT OF SUNDAY/S RUN. ALL THE MODELS PLACE THE VORT MAX AROUND THE SF BAY AREA TONIGHT AND TRACK IT ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE DISTRICT FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKING GOOD...SO NOT NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS POINT. MODELS SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE ON THE DRIER-SIDE ...SO WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. MOUNTAIN LOCATION COULD SEE QPF VALUES NEAR A TENTH TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH AND VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS WILL BE MORE REALISTIC FOR THE VALLEY AND A TENTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT 24 HOUR TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES DOWN FROM SUNDAY AND SOUTH VALLEY WERE STILL AHEAD. BASED ON CURRENT PACKAGE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THE START OF A COOL DOWN TODAY. NO NEED TO UPDATE THERE. WILL EXPECT WINDS OVER KERN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND REACH BREEZY CONDITIONS. MOLINA .HNX...NONE. $$ ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 955 PM EST MON MAR 3 2003 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW TWO SHRTWVS/SFC LO PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN UPR TROFFING OVR SCNTRL CAN/NCNTRL CONUS IMPACTING CWA THIS EVNG. THE SRN MOST SHRTWV/SFC LO IS OVR SRN MN/NW WI WITH WEAK WARM FNT XTNDG E ACRS THE SCNTRL CWA. OTHR SHRTWV ALG MN/ONTARIO BORDER WITH SFC LO NR CYQT. FAIRLY STRG CONFLUENT SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THESE LO PRES CAUSED BAND OF LK ENHANCED SN OVR NRN LK MI EARLIER THIS EVNG THAT DROPPED SN AT THE RATE OF AN INCH/HR IN ERN DELTA/WRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES PER SPOTTER RPRTS...WITH AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES MEASURED AS OF 01Z NR THE GARDEN PENINSULA. SN BAND REMAINED NRLY STNRY FOR A FEW HRS AS CONFLUENT SE FLOW TO THE E AND MORE SSW FLOW TO THE W REMAINED STEADY STATE. MIXED LYR HAS BEEN AS DEEP AS H85 PER 00Z GRB SDNG...BUT DRY AIR ALF ADVCTG E OVR NRN WI BTWN TWO SHRTWVS AS EVIDENCED BY HIER CLD TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR SAT PIX CAUSED BAND TO WEAKEN SGNFTLY BY 0130Z PER GRB/MQT 88D WITH DRYING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE LIKELY DIMINISHING DEPTH OF MIXED LYR. BAND OF HIER REFLECTIVITY...UP TO 24DBZ...IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE COMMA TAIL OF NRN SHRTWV CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CNTRL CWA...SN RATE MAY BE HALF INCH/HR PER OBS OUTSIDE WFO UNDER THIS NARROW BAND. LINGERING SN QUITE A BIT LIGHTER OVR THE WRN ZNS. A THIRD SHRTWV IS SW OF LK WINNIPEG...WITH FAIRLY STRG SFC COLD FNT MOVG E ACRS NCNTRL MN. SFC DWPTS FALL WELL BLO ZERO BEHIND THIS BNDRY. MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE GOING HEADLINES OVR THE SE ZNS AS WELL AS SN TRENDS. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME RESOLVING SEPARATE LO PRES CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH VARIOUS SHRTWVS...TENDING TO CONSOLIDATE SEPARATE CENTERS INTO ONE LO PRES IN BTWN TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE MSTR PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS. 00Z RUC SHOWS NRN SHRTWV MOVG E INTO ONTARIO JUST E OF LK SUP BY 06Z...WITH SRN SYS SLIDING E INTO LWR MI BY THEN. AS THESE SHRTWVS MOVE E...SO WL COMMA TAIL BAND OF SN NOW ACRS CNTRL ZNS AS LLVL WND VEERS SW. WITH INCRSG SW FLOW OVR NRN LK MI THEN PASSING OVR MORE ICE COVER OVR NRN END OF LK...XPCT ADDITIONAL LK ENHANCEMENT TO BE MINIMIZED. SO XPCT SN TO DIMINISH OVR ERN ZNS BY 06Z...WITH RUC SHOWING DRIER AIR AT H7 FLOODING ACRS CWA. RUC INDICATES THIRD SHRTWV NOW NR LK WINNIPEG WL REACH NR INL BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH THIS SHRTWV THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE...ADVCTN OF DRIER AIR ALF WL MINIMIZE ANY PCPN TO JUST PTCHY -SN/FLURRIES. PCPN WL FALL MAINLY ALG ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT... WHICH IS FCST TO REACH CNTRL CWA TOWARD 12Z. AS FOR HEADLINES...HAVE ALREADY CANX ADVY FOR LUCE COUNTY AS LLVL ESE FLOW HELD ENHANCED SN BAND TO W ALL EVNG. XPCT PDS OF SN THERE TO DROP NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES BEFORE COMMA TAIL SHIFTS E BY 06Z. WL HOLD ON TO HEADLINES FOR SCHOOLCRAFT/DELTA ZNS UNTIL BACK EDGE OF COMMA TAIL PASSES LATE THIS EVNG. XPCT LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SN W OF DELTA/ALGER COUNTIES. AS FOR MIN TEMPS...SUSPECT TEMPS WL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FM CURRENT READINGS OVR THE E TWO THIRDS OF CWA UNDER LO CLD IN ADVANCE OF COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIRD SHRTWV. BUT TEMPS SHUD FALL OFF QUICKLY LATE OVR THE WRN ZNS AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR NOW IN DAKOTAS MOVES IN AFTR 09Z. RUC SHOWS H85 TEMP FALLING TO -20C. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WL LIMIT LES TO JUST SCT -SHSN OVR FVRD NW FLOW UPSLOPE RGNS. COORDINATED WITH APX. AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LONGER TERM... LOW CLOUD DECK HANGS ON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...THEN A FEW BREAKS MAY APPEAR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PER ETA GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SHOWING CEILINGS OF 3KT FT OR LESS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. COLDER WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE...BUT FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL ON THURSDAY. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COMING IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. KEPT WITH COLDER TEMPS WITH A MODIFYING TREND BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. WENT CLOSE TO AVN MOS GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS BEEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE AND HAS DONE BETTER. PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS FORECAST. IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF/UKMET/AVN/MRF ALL SHOW FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. MOST OF NORTH AMERICA REMAINS IN A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW EVERY SINGLE DAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT FLOW IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL WHICH WILL NOT LEAD TO REALLY COLD TEMPS LIKE THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FAIRLY SIMILAR...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT COLD SHOT ARRIVES SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS COLD. WILL HOWEVER GO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND HAVE LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MONDAY AS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND 1000-500 THICKNESS GETS DOWN NEAR 500 DM. .MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MIZ013-014. SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MIZ085. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 PM EST MON MAR 3 2003 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST PRESSURE FALLS IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF LOW WITH GENERALLY 1-3 SM VIS ACROSS CWFA. AFTER SOME DISORGANIZATION TO LAKE MICHIGAN'S DOMINANT MID LAKE LES BAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IT HAS REFORMED TO THE EAST OF KGRB CWFA AND IS HEADING NORTH...KEEPING THREAT OF LCLY HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG US-2 THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOW TRENDS AND LAKE MI ENHANCEMENT. LK ENHANCEMENT STILL ON TRACK...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS BETWEEN RAPID RIVER AND MANISTIQUE...PER ETA/RUC 950 MB CONVERGENCE AND WIND FIELD. IN ADDITIONAL...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS (INCREASING TO 35 KT) IN EXPOSED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW OFF OF LAKE ICE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH FALLING SNOW WILL MAKE LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE...HEAVIER SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO INCLUDE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SW LUCE COUNTY...SO SNOW ADVYS REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THESE AREAS WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF M-28. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW LOCALLY FROM RAPID RIVER TO GULLIVER....WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ELSEWHERE ACROSS CWFA THIS EVENING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON ENDING PRECIPITATION BY 06Z IN THE WEST AND 12Z IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCED AREAS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE UNDER A CLOUDY SKY. LOW CLOUD DECK HANGS ON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...THEN A FEW BREAKS MAY APPEAR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PER ETA GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SHOWING CEILINGS OF 3KT FT OR LESS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS. CVKING LONG TERM... QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. COLDER WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE...BUT FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL ON THURSDAY. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COMING IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. KEPT WITH COLDER TEMPS WITH A MODIFYING TREND BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. WENT CLOSE TO AVN MOS GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS BEEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE AND HAS DONE BETTER. PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS FORECAST. IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF/UKMET/AVN/MRF ALL SHOW FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. MOST OF NORTH AMERICA REMAINS IN A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW EVERY SINGLE DAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT FLOW IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL WHICH WILL NOT LEAD TO REALLY COLD TEMPS LIKE THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FAIRLY SIMILAR...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT COLD SHOT ARRIVES SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS COLD. WILL HOWEVER GO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND HAVE LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MONDAY AS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND 1000-500 THICKNESS GETS DOWN NEAR 500 DM. .MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MIZ013-014. SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MIZ007-085. MICHELS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1130 AM EST MON MAR 3 2003 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN WESTERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH BEST PRESSURE FALLS IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF LOW WITH GENERALLY 1-3 SM VIS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE COME UP FROM RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 40 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING ACROSS CWFA AND ARE NOW APPROACHING OR ABOVE ZERO. TEMPERATURE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK...CONCERN IS SNOW TOTALS. MAIN FCST CONCERN IS SNOW AMOUNTS WITH LAKE MI ENHANCEMENT. SATURATING ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS BEEN DIFFICULT AND SLOW PROCESS THIS MORNING ACROSS CWFA. THIS IS EVIDENT FROM VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING LOWEST RETURNS AT 6K FT. EXPECT EVENTUAL SATURATION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWFA AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE PULLS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO START IN KIWD BY 18Z...KCMX BY 19Z...KMQT BY 20Z...AND ERY BY 22Z. LK BAND THAT IS VISIBLE ON KGRB RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOULD BE PUSHED INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN KESC-KISQ BRINGING SOME SHSN IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND HEAVIEST SNOW THAT WILL ARRIVE BY EVENING. AS FOR LK ENHANCEMENT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCMENT TO LOCATIONS BTWN KESC-KISQ. ACCCORDING TO LATEST ICE HAZARD BULLETIN FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER...9 TO 10 TENTHS OF MEDIUM AND THIN ICE EXISTS EAST OF A LINE FROM GLEN ARBOR MI NORTHWESTWARD TO PT DETOUR. THIS INFORMATION LEADS TO FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN SUBWARNING SNOWFALL EAST OF MANISTIQUE IN SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND NORTH OF M-28. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW IS BETWEEN RAPID RIVER AND MANISTIQUE...PER ETA/RUC 950 MB CONVERGENCE AND WIND FIELD. ADDITIONAL HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WIND (INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT) IN EXPOSED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. BLOWING SNOW OFF OF LAKE ICE IN ADDITION TO FALLING SNOW WILL MAKE LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR LES BAND ORGANIZATION IS LESS THAN IDEAL SFC-850 180-220 DIR SHEAR...ALTHOUGH WITH DOMINANT MID LAKE LES BAND ALREADY FORMED ALONG WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THREAT OF LCLY HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG US-2 IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE...HEAVIER SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO INCLUDE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SW LUCE COUNTY...SO SNOW ADVYS REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THESE AREAS WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF M-28. LOOK FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS REST OF CWFA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW LOCALLY FROM RAPID RIVER TO GULLIVER. .MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MIZ013-014. SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MIZ007-085. CVKING mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1115 AM EST MON MAR 3 2003 UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS SNOW HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SURFACE TO 700MB AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL IS GETTING SOME ADDED LIFT VIA LEFT EXIT REGION OF 110KT 300MB JET NOW MOVING INTO IOWA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING WESTERN UPPER MI BY THIS EVENING...WHILE LIFT FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...GENERALLY AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MESO ETA AND CURRENT RUC INDICATE DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO 900MB WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KDTX SOUNDING CERTAINLY CONFIRMED THIS DRY AIR WITH 900MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 19 DEG C. 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION IS HOWEVER QUITE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE FALLING TO 30MB BY 21Z ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...I WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 4 PM ALONG AND WEST OF AN ADRIAN TO BAD AXE LINE. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE COLUMN MOISTENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL WITH 3 INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A GRADUAL RECOVERY TODAY. MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOWARD MIDNIGHT THOUGH UNDER THE STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION. .DTX...NONE. $$ CONSIDINE EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 830 PM CST MON MAR 3 2003 00Z RUC40 OUTPUT SHOWING SOME DECENT 2D FRONTOGENESIS (700-600) LAYER ADVANCING OVER SOUTEHRN MN LATE TONIGHT..PLACING FAR SOUTH IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR SOME LIFT. WILL ADD A SMALL POP FOR SW COUNTIES. THIS WILL BLEND IN FOR SMALL CHANCE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS GENERALLY OK BUT HAVE LOWERED A BIT IN NORTH WITH MORE CLEARING MOVING IN. .MSP...NONE. $$ JPR mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 230 PM CST MON MAR 3 2003 MSAS IS PLACING THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT SNOWFALL CURRENTLY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (FA). VISIBILITIES HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE MILE TO 2 MILE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THIS EPISODE. SOME WESTERN LOCATION HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES RISE UP TO ABOVE 3 MILES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS RATES HAVE INCREASED DUE TO SNOW "FLUFFING UP". ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A RISE OF 2-3 DEG C IN THE SNOW GENESIS REGION TO ABOUT -16 DEG C DURING THE MORNING. DENDRITIC SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS TIME HAS PROGRESSED. EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS REACH 4 INCHES TOTAL SNOW DUE TO THIS FACTOR. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG...EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. 18Z RUC MAINTAINS SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS WRAPAROUND SNOW LINGERS IN THIS LOCATION. EVEN THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY 06Z. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. AROUND 06Z IS WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION. ENOUGH OPEN WATER AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE EXITING SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY RELATIVE TO THE LAKE (600 J/KG)...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SOME SNOW THAT FALLS ON THE ICE WILL BLOW ASHORE AS WELL... ADDING TO THE EFFECTIVE SNOW AMOUNT. WINDS WON'T BE STRONG (10-20 MPH)...SO BLOWING SNOW WON'T BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SUBSIDENCE WILL FURTHER DIMINISH LES SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE THE FA WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AS THE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FA BY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC AIR WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE FA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPS AGAIN TO DIP WELL BELOW ZERO WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS NEAR THE IRON RANGE REACHING -20. ETA/GFS ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEY BOTH BRING THE INCREASING CLOUDS THAT PRECEDE THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS...SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT IS PASSING THROUGH TODAY...ARE EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. .DLH...NONE. $$ KFM mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1030 AM CST MON MAR 3 2003 UPDATED ZONES/STATE TO BOOST CLOUD COVER MOST LOCATIONS S OF HIGHWAY 82 AND INCREASE POPS FOR SW MS AND MOST OF NE LA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE A DECENT UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OPENING UP OVER W TX HEADING OUR WAY. 12Z RUNS OF RUC/ETA INDICATE A DECENT RAIN SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE SRN THIRD OF MS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. THE RAINS PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY S OF I-20 AND RAPIDLY END FROM W TO E 03-06Z AS THE SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS SCOOTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. UPDATED NUMBERS... JAN 57/45/67/53/67 32111 MEI 58/43/67/53/67 12111 .JAN... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. MS...NONE. $$ ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 825 PM EST MON MAR 3 2003 LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP SLIDING NORTHEAST AT THE MOMENT. RUC AND MESO ETA INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 0900Z TONIGHT. WILL ALSO BUMP UP TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. NOTICED THAT CAE DEW POINT HAS GONE UP FROM 25 TO 34 IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INDICATION THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOW STARTING TO FEED INTO THE AREA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH BUT ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NOT PUT IN ANY PRECIP OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR CLT AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. FCSTID = 17 CAE 41 59 50 69 / 20 50 50 50 AGS 41 59 50 69 / 20 50 50 50 SSC 41 59 50 69 / 20 50 50 50 OGB 43 61 51 71 / 30 50 50 50 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. JDB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 330 PM EST MON MAR 3 2003 THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 330 PM EST MON MAR 3 2003 ANOTHER DRY PERIOD THRU LATE AFTERNOON TUE AS A S/WV PASSES S OF THE REGION TONITE WITH A WEE BIT OF CI ACROSS THE S HALF OF FA. ON TUE REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT S/WV FM SW U.S. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS WAA EVENT DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AFFECTING FA GENERALLY DURING THE 3RD PD OF FCST EXITING NE TN/SW VA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WED. NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE WED NITE AS TRAILING S/WV AFFECTS THE SE U.S. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH FEATURES CD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06-12Z THU. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BLEND IN TERMS OF TEMPS THIS FCST. CHA 32 62 49 65 / 0 20 50 30 TYS 31 59 47 63 / 0 5 50 30 TRI 26 57 43 59 / 0 0 50 40 OQT 31 59 46 62 / 0 5 50 30 .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. ********************************************************************* MID-MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 1025 AM EST MON MAR 3 2003 FINALLY...A DRY DAY WITH A BIT OF SUNSHINE. WILL ONLY MAKE CHANGES TO REMOVE MORNING AND TRENDING WORDING FROM ZONES. TEMP FCST LOOKS DECENT. ********************************************************************* EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 300 AM EST MON MAR 3 2003 MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST CYCLE CENTER ON SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS IN THE FIRST THREE PERIODS...AND TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WV SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UPPER AIR FLOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS THIS SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY EXITS THE EAST COAST. FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL EAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE...WHICH HAS BEEN A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS SEASON. NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SOUTHERN STREAM ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA PROJECT PRECIP BEGINNING AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES HOLD PRECIP OFF UNTIL AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINLY...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE THIRD PERIOD BUT CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE FOURTH PERIOD AT THIS TIME. IN THE MEANTIME...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL RULE. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL ABATE AT ALL LEVELS BY AROUND 15Z TODAY...THUS EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR BY LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CLEARING LINE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THIS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TODAY BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING A MODERATION TREND. TENDED TO USE A BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW: CHA 53 34 61 46 / 0 0 10 40 TYS 50 33 60 45 / 0 0 10 50 TRI 44 29 59 43 / 0 0 10 50 OQT 50 33 59 46 / 0 0 10 50 LCM ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 845 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2003 SKIES CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING SNOW FLURRIES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. JKL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING SOUTHEAST. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MOUNTAINS. LATEST ETA AND RUC MODEL SHOWING BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH UPPER TROUGH. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONLY FLURRIES CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN AND MAKE TIMING CHANGES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK GOOD. TD ********************************************************************* tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 940 AM CST MON MAR 3 2003 SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. YES, THAT'S RIGHT-- SUNNY. AFTER A LONG STRING OF MOSTLY CLOUDY DAYS, THE SUN HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO OUR LITTLE PART OF THE WORLD. 850MB AND 925MB 12Z PLOTS SHOWED COOL POOL, OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, IS RATHER SHALLOW AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT WARMING LATER TODAY, WHEN RETURN FLOW SETS UP. 12Z RUC SUGGESTED AVN AND NGM MOS MAY BE A TAD HIGH FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z RUNS AND BETWEEN DIFFERENT SETS OF MOS DATA, AM HESITANT TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THUS, NO NEED FOR AN UPDATE AT THIS TIME. .BNA...NONE. 19 tn WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 845 PM CST MON MAR 3 2003 CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...WILL PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. RUC40 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. .SJT...NONE. 23/HUBER **** 225 PM CST MON MAR 3 2003 DISCUSSION **** RAIN MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA BY NOON...TENTH TO A THIRD OF INCH FELL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...ARE WE GETTING GREEN FOR ST PATRICKS DAY OR WHAT. BIGGEST DISTRACTION OF THE DAY HAS BEEN CALLS TO THE OFFICE HAVING TO EXPLAIN AMBER ALERTS TO PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT WEATHER RADIOS FOR WEATHER INFORMATION. CLEARING HAS BEEN SPORADIC. BUT CLEARING SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE IN THE BIG COUNTY...SO WILL USE WINDY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY ONLY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ONE OF THE BEST WEATHER PLACES IN THE US ON TUESDAY...IF YOU DONT WEAR A HAT. WEDNESDAY OFFERS A CHALLENGE AS EACH MODEL RUN DROPS COLD AIR DEEPER INTO THE AREA. LAST WEEKS ARCTIC AIR DROPPED FURTHER SOUTH AND TEMP FORECAST WASNT ONE OF THE BEST...SO WILL HEDGE DOWNWARD FOR WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS TO THE MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...HOWEVER IF COLD AIR DOES NOT PUSH ACROSS AREA...70S ARE LIKELY AGAIN SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. COULD BRING LATE WEEK EARLY WEEKEND CHANCES FOR RAIN. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF RAIN THURS AND FRI. OVERALL A NICE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY MARCH. CCF PRELIMS... ABI 046/072/043/060 0000 SJT 045/073/045/069 0000 JCT 044/072/045/071 -000 .SJT...NONE. $$ 25 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 913 PM EST MON MAR 3 2003 WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO MOSTLY THE FIRST PERIOD. RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TONITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE FA ON TUE. S/W TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND THEN ACRS THE FA EARLY ON TUE. 18Z TAQ RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO TONITE WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 5-10KTS. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BLO ZERO TONITE. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACRS NRN NY STATE LATE TONITE. RUC SHOWS NO PCPN TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...WITH JUST SOME CLDS STARTING TO MOVE IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST BY AROUND 06Z. IR SAT PIX SHOW SOME CLDS OFF TO THE W-SW OF THE FA ATTM. WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...WITH BETTER WAA ON TUE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON TUE...WITH SOME GOOD LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA THEN. LOW-LVL (AND MID-LVL) LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON TUE. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TONITE AND LINGER ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TUE. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE 0.2-0.3" ACRS THE FA ON TUE. NGM BUFR DATA BASICALLY SHOWS THAT JUST SOME LK EFFECT CLDS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS PARTS OF THE WRN FA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FEW TWEAKS TO THE CLD WORDING IN THE OVERNITE FCST...OTRW WILL TRIM BACK ANY MENTION OF PCPN TONITE ACRS THE FA TO JUST THE ST LAW VLY WITH ANY LES (FLURRIES) OR -SHSN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS (BY LATER TONITE). CHC POPS ON TUE LOOK LIKE A GOOD IDEA WITH THE NEXT SYS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FA THEN. FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 930 PM. .BTV...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WED NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 145 PM CST MON MAR 3 2003 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. DATA ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR KULM. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC ASCENT QUITE STRONG AND CONCENTRATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT 280K AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE ETA/GFS/RUC THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE WEST FROM THIS LOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW EXTENDING FROM KMSP-KMCW LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES ON TRACK. POSITIONING OF SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MADE AT THE LAST MINUTE TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE DATA. THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IS VERY CRITICAL TO TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE ETA/GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. AS A RESULT...WILL RAISE THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF...BUT LEFT THE NORTHERN HALF AS IS. ON TUESDAY...THE ETA/GFS HAS GAINED SOME CONSISTENCY IN HANDLING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BOTH SUGGEST A HIGH CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH 285K AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW VERY STRONG NET ADIABATIC ASCENT...AS WELL AS A STRONG DIABATIC COMPONENT. THIS RESULTS IN A TOTAL OMEGA OF 20 UBAR/S. THE BULK OF THIS SEEMS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLEED OVER INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE 850-700 MB QG FORCING FIELDS. REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THUS RAISED SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THIS AREA. SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GIVEN THE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM SUBSIDENT MOTION. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. BOTH THE ETA/GFS HAVE ALSO SLOWED DOWN SOME...WITH SNOW ENDING DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MIDNIGHT SHIFT ALREADY PICKED UP ON THIS. MASSAGED THE SNOW CHANCES SOME...RAISING THEM IN THE EXPECTED AREA OF SNOW. IN THE END...EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THIS AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT ALSO REMAINS DIFFICULT REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLEARING/LACK THERE OF POSSIBILITY. WILL LEAVE THE SAME UNTIL SOME CONSISTENCY IS REACHED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES RIGHT OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE HAS NOT MATERIALIZED LATELY WITH THE LAST FEW SYSTEM...SO WILL STICK WITH WHAT THE FORECAST CLOUDS AND HIGHS ARE FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALREADY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOS DOES NOT CAPTURE THIS AT THIS TIME...SO FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN ABOVE MOS (WHICH IS WHAT THEY ALREADY WERE). FOR THURSDAY...WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW ON THE GROUND SHOULD PROHIBIT SOME OF THE WARMING THAT DAY...BUT STILL THINK 30S AND LOWER 40S ON TRACK. THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. NONE THE LESS...AGREEMENT IS REACHED ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE ECMWF...AND BEGAN BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS DURING THE 02/12Z RUN SUNDAY. FUNNY HOW KLSE FORECAST MEX HIGH FOR NEXT WENT FROM 02/00Z PREDICTION OF 40 TO 03/00Z PREDICTION OF 17. GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS AND LAST TWO OF THE ECMWF...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STILL CANNOT LOG INTO CHAT SOFTWARE FOR COORDINATION. PLEASE SEE ISC GRIDS OR CALL. COORDINATED WITH DMX. .LSE...NONE. $$ KRC wi SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 930 PM MST MON MAR 3 2003 FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR NO UPDATES EXPECTED. COOLING ALOFT... WITH MILD AFTERNOON HIGHS... DESTABILIZED WX OVER SW IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A 500 MB UPPER TROF. THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED -3 LIFTED INDEX AND 350 CAPE WHICH BROUGHT WIND GUSTS 25-30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL TO PARTS OF SW IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOGUS BASIN PICKED UP AN INCH OF SNOW 5-8 PM WITH ANOTHER SNOW SHOWER PASSING THROUGH AROUND 8-9 PM. IN THE WEST CNTRL MTNS HALF THE RAWS SITES MEASURED 1-3 HUNDREDTHS LIQUED/3PM-8PM FROM 3500-4700 FT ELEVATION WHERE EVENING TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING. BOISE AIRPORT GUSTED TO 26 MPH AT 730 PM WHILE A SPOTTER 7 NORTH BOISE REPORTED 35F WITH 1 INCH OF NEW SNOW BY 8 PM. A FEW SPRINKLES CROSSED THE VALLEY BUT SMALL HAIL WAS REPORTED IN EMMETT. TOPS WERE LOW...20-25K FT ON RADAR WHICH FIT WELL WITH THE SOUNDING. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING IN THE OWYHEES AND CENTRAL MTNS AND OREGON NE BLUE MTNS... AIDED BY CYCLONIC FLOW. BAKER CITY IS STLL MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT HARNEY AND WRN MALHEUR COUNTIES ARE CLEARING OUT SO MINS IN THE TEENS STILL EXPECTED THERE. COULD BE A TAD MILDER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT TEMPS WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT-3AM SO PLAN TO LEAVE MINS ALONE. LAST AREA OF CONCERN FOR MINS IS ALONG SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO WHERE WEST SFC WINDS STAY UP 5-15 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH RUC SHOWING 4MB/100MILES TIL 9Z. GRIDS KEEP THIS AREA/S MINS CLOSER TO 34F WHICH IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR NO UPDATES NEEDED THERE EITHER. EARLY LOOK AT NEW ETA RUNS SHOW LIKELY POPS INTO NRN ZONES BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH NGM QPF SUPPORTIVE OF LIKELY BUT MOS POPS UNDERCUTTING (CHC) THAT. TAKE MYL... PREFER MESOETA WED 68 POP OVER FWC CONSERVATIVE 34 PCT. HIGHER POPS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FCST AND HEADLINE. NO PROBLEMS NOTED THRU THURS. .BOI...WINTER STORM WATCH WED-THU IDAHO ZONES 11/13. $$ MILLS id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 215 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2003 FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE AFFECTS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT AT 06Z LYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON RADAR MOSAIC ALONG AND IN THE POST FRONTAL AREA. LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE A COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ON THE 290K SURFACE...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET MAX MOVING ALONG THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY STALLED (PROBABLY DUE TO PRESENCE OF LEE SIDE TROUGH) SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A 09Z TO 12Z FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POST FRONTAL 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES NEAR 2.5 MB ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z BY THE 20KM RUC AND THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE TIMING OF HIGHEST WINDS IN THE MOS GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE CONCENTRATED IN TWO WINDOWS. FIRST THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE 020 TO 030 WHICH IS NOT IDEAL UPSLOPE...JET LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN THOUGH AN ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKLY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ISENTROPIC CHARTS ARE NEUTRAL OR DOWNGLIDE. NEXT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS OVER COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. GFS AND ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEIR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NGM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH BUT A KNOWN BIAS. THEREFORE AM SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT THAN USUAL WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS TONIGHT...THOUGH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE TREND WILL FOLLOW MAV GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WEDNESDAY...500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA 12Z TO 18Z...SO SOME MORNING FLURRIES POSSIBLE BEFORE SUBSIDENCE BRINGS AND END TO SNOW CHANCES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT TO SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NEAR 40 WEST TO MIDDLE 30S EAST. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR MAV GUIDANCE. THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING GOOD DOWNSLOPE WARMING. 850 TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 12C FORECASTED BY BOTH THE EXTENDED ETA AND GFS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE. EXTENDED...UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA MOVES LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY AS HUDSON BAY LOW STRENGTHENS. GFS 850 TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS INDICATE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. MEX AND FMR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DROP AND WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND WITH THE GRIDS. WOULD EXPECT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WELL WITH THE FRONT BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL DUE TO LACK OF DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. .GLD...NONE. $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 259 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 DAYS 1-2... PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE AMOUNT/EXTENT/TYPE OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT AND HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND. THE 00Z DIAGNOSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF PHASED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIGGING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA AND AN ARCTIC HIGH SURGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. A LEE CYCLONE OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD AIR HAS ALREADY REACHED THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER BY 1 AM AND APPEARS ON TRACK TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH POLAR BAROCLINIC ZONE IS QUITE MOIST WITH MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS. THE ETA ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TOO DRY BUT EVEN THE AVN SEEMS TO HAVE MISSED A LOT OF TROPICAL SOURCE MOISTURE NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SO IS VERY SIGNIFICANT TO THIS FORECAST. WILL LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EVEN THE AVN FORECAST. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH THIS MORNING SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO ACT ON THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY. IT WILL LIKELY START AS LIGHT RAIN BEFORE CHANGING RAPIDLY TO SNOW. THE ETA AND THE MESOETA ARE ALREADY TOO SLOW ON THE COLD AIR AND WILL LOOK FOR IT TO BE THROUGH ALL MY ZONES BY AROUND NOON. THESE TWO MODELS ARE ALSO VERY SLOW AT GENERATING PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT. WILL GO WITH THE RUC FOR TIMING AND WITH THE AVN FOR DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE. PER THE AVN, THE LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT BUT COULD STILL SEE UP TO AN INCH IN MY NORTHEAST ZONES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. A STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC WIND COMPONENT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE REACHED EARLY AND MOS NUMBERS WILL BE TOO WARM. SINCE THE MODELS AND THE MOS SEEM TO HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR, THEY WILL BOTH BE TOO WARM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL START THE WARM UP TOO SOON. DAYS 3-7... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 60 AT DDC WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS 85H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C OR ABOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE EFFECTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED ON SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ERODE AWAY THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR QUICKLY. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN, AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS, DEVELOP A STRONG SPLIT FLOW BLOCK OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SHOULD LEAD TO OUR NEXT COLD SURGE SOMETIME ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED, THE TIMING OF THIS COLD AIR IS THE QUESTION. THE EURO IS HINTING AT HOLDING UP THE COLD AIR UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE EXTENDED GFS DOES NOT AGREE, AS IT CONTINUES TO KEEP MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. ALL THIS BEING SAID, DECIDED TO BUMP TEMPS UP A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY AND DROPPED TEMPS FOR MONDAY WITH THE EURO SUGGESTING 85H TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO TO NEAR 10 BELOW ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 35 14 33 25 / 50 40 30 0 GCK 31 13 38 25 / 50 40 30 0 EHA 35 16 41 26 / 50 40 30 0 LBL 35 16 38 27 / 50 40 30 0 HYS 31 13 30 25 / 50 40 30 0 P28 46 16 28 26 / 50 40 30 0 .DDC...NONE. JOHNSON/LACY ks SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1110 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 MAIN FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING WINTER STORM. WEATHER CURRENTLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH EVEN SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW NORTHERN SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WITH NEXT ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON WITH FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TO NEXT LOW OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HIGH PRESSURES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND CENTRAL CANADA/HIGH PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SNOW ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA SPREADING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. 12Z RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES SATURATING BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN WITH HEATING...AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD SEE CU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BEGINNING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A DIURNAL LOOK...AS WELL AS SHOWING A BAND SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE SUCKER HOLE WHOLE-HEARTEDLY...BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION MORE SUN FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS OF GOOD INSOLATION THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES AT MANY STATIONS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 30S ALREADY. 12Z DTX SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH FULL SUN...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS FILL IN WE MAY APPROACH THOSE TEMPERATURES. AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z RUN OF THE ETA/NGM...CURRENT FORECAST AND HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. CURRENT ETA EVEN POINTING TOWARD MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. 12Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM NOSE UP TO 6C AROUND 950MB. THE ETA INITIALIZATION WAS RATHER DECENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS ILLINOIS BUT TOO WARM ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN COMPARED TO DTX SOUNDING. 12Z RUC IS SLOWER IN SURGING THIS WARM AIR NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AROUND 00Z AS OPPOSED TO 12Z-18Z AS INDICATED BY THE ETA. CONSEQUENTLY THINK THE ETA IS TOO OVERDONE WITH THE SOUNDINGS AND DEGREE OF MIXED/MELTED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RUC PROFILES AND CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND IT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON. QUESTION FOR POPS IN NOT WHETHER WE GET SNOW...BUT RATHER WHAT CHANCE IT WILL DEVELOP BEFORE THE 6PM LST CUTOFF BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT PERIODS. RATHER THAN MENTIONING POPS FOR THE UPDATE UNDER THIS SITUATION...MAY BE BEST FROM A GENERAL USER PERSPECTIVE TO FOLLOW A PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE WORDING. .DTX...WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT....MIZ055-060>063-068>070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...TONIGHT... MIZ047>049-053-054-075-076-082-083. $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1110 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 NO ZFP UPDATE PLANNED. HIGH PRES WEDGED INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS/SCT SHOWERS JUST S AND E OF AREA. LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEDGE PULLING OUT THIS AFTN WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING SHOWERS TOWARD LAND. CURRENT FCST LOOKS OK WITH PARTLY SUNNY WITH 20/30 POPS FOR LATE AFTN SHOWERS. TEMPS ON TRACK. MARINE...NE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SRN WTRS AND A LTL STRONGER WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT N OF THE TROF. LATEST RUC SHOWS THESE WINDS RELAXING JUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WL OPT TO HOLD ON TO NE 15-20 A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE TROFS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WL ADD AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE SRN WTRS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER N WE'RE SEEING E WINDS ALREADY AND LIGHTER. OTHERWISE...WL MAINTAIN SCA EXPECTED HEADLINE FOR TNGT AND WL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. .MHX...NONE. JBM/NP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1055 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE CAE CWA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE HAD MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN CLOSE TO WHAT THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS WOULD HAVE BEEN. CAE IS CURRENTLY 58. WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE HIGHS TO MID 60S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTION AND TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH PART. RUC KEEPS SURFACE WINDS E 5-10 MPH. THIS SOUNDS GOOD. ALSO WILL GO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RAIN SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND 20 PERCENT NORTH PART. OTHERWISE...NO MORE CHANGES. FCSTID = 07 CAE 64 52 74 56 / 30 50 30 70 AGS 64 51 74 54 / 30 30 30 70 SSC 64 52 74 55 / 30 50 30 70 OGB 65 52 75 56 / 30 30 30 70 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. TTH THE FOLLOWING IS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. ************************************************************** AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 300 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 MOS POPS HAVE BEEN DOING A FLIP FLOP EACH RUN...ALTHOUGH MAV HAVING BEST RUN/RUN CONSISTENCY. BOTH GFS/ETA SUGGEST LOW CHANCE RAIN TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH GA THIS MORNING...AREA OF RAIN MOVING STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF CSRA AREA...MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO STAY OUT OF AREA AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GA COAST THIS MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT ACROSS FL MOVES INTO AREA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...LIFT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...INCREASING CHANCE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAE...WILL GO LIKELY THERE...MOS POPS CLT HIGH. CONVECTIVE THREAT LIMITED WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT. FOR WED...EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. COULD GET VERY WARM...LOCAL SCHEMES IN LINE WITH MET GUIDANCE. WILL GO LOW TO MID 70S. AIRMASS BECOMING UNSTABLE WED AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS AND MENTION THUNDER. COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN TENN LATE WED...MODELS APPEAR SLOWER MOVING FRONT TOWARD AREA...UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL SOUTHWEST. BEST CHANCE RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AS WEAK LOW IN LA MOVING TOWARD TENN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THRU SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATED AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR. CONVECTION MAY BE ELEVATED. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV MOS FOR TEMPS. FCSTID = 19 CAE 60 52 74 56 / 30 50 30 70 AGS 60 51 74 54 / 40 30 30 70 SSC 60 52 74 55 / 30 50 30 70 OGB 62 52 75 56 / 40 30 30 70 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. AWP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 945 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 PUBLIC...RADAR AND SATL CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SE GA AND A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER S COASTAL SC. COASTAL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING A NE-E FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LATEST RUC BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF PVA ACRS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP A GOOD THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. DO NOT PLAN ANY UPDATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MARINE...LTL IF ANY CHG PLANNED ON MARINE UPDATE. SFC RDG ACRS INLAND AREAS AND CSTL TROF WELL OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A LGT NE FLOW ACRS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORN. WILL CONT WITH NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT THIS AFTN AS FNT RMNS TO THE S. .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ JH/JC sc COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 914 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 SHORT-TERM(TODAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY)...14Z MSAS REVEALED A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PREVAILED INLAND. CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS TODAY AND WILL RETARD ANY RAIPD BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDINESS. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS. PREFER THE LATEST RUC SOLUTION WITH EVELOVING SCENARIO. FEEL WINDS WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST AT BEST WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REGION-WIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL DOWNGRADE OFFSHORE WATERS TO SCEC FOR HIGH SEAS INITIALLY...BUT IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER. .CRP...NONE. 85/SHORT-TERM tx INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 930 AM PST TUE MAR 03 2003 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH 40KM RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS HALFWAY DOWN THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. WILL EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE CWFA THROUGH MID DAY AS AN AREA OF PVA REMAINS OVERHEAD. MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE DISTRICT UNDER NVA BY 400 PM...AS OF WHICH ALL PRECIP WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS OVER THE DESERTS DECOUPLED THIS MORNING AND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...NO NEED TO UPDATE WINDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A LITTLE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON AS 24 HOUR TREND IS UP THIS MORNING. THIS COULD BE DUE MORE TO THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME THICKNESS FALLS AND COOLER 850MB TEMP/S TODAY. THEREFORE WILL NOT UPDATE FORECAST TO RISE MAX TEMPERATURES. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER ELEMENTS STILL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MOLINA .HNX...NONE. $$ ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1042 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH TO THE MN BORDER. GETTING VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS OF 30 OR 35 TO 1 OVER NW IA WITH BAND OF ENHANCEMENT EXTENDING E INTO THE KMCW AREA. NEW AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING OVER SW PER MODEL FORECASTS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ETA AND RUC BOTH NAILED THIS DEVELOPMENT FROM OMA TO CIN AND KADU WHILE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME I THINK THE 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES BUT GIVEN VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE TO GET TO THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. STILL ANTICIPATING THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW OVER SW IA TO TRANSITION TO THE ESE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT SNOW TOTALS UNCHANGED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WILL MAKE ANY NEEDED CHANGES PER OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. .DSM...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SE OF ALO-BNW-AIO LINE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THIS LINE TO THE MN BORDER. $$ JAW ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 145 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 CONVERGENCE OF WINDS ALONG TROUGH HAS ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG M-72 (EAST OF I-75). A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA HAVE REPORTED 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...CORRELATES WITH OBS AT TVC REPORTING 1/2 TO 1/4SM +SN OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. HENCE HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE...AND KALKASKA. WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHWEST AND RUC SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST ADVISORY AREA. .APX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ025>027. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MIZ041-042. MASEK mi WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 234 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 HAPPY MARDI GRAS...IF YOU HAVE EVER LIVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE REST OF THE WORLD FUNCTIONS NORMALLY ON MARDI GRAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WHIPPIN UP PRETTY GOOD TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNDOWN WILL ONLY CARRY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 FOR EVENING IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. COLD FRONT JUST MAKING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RUC SEEMS A BIT BETTER THAN OTHERS AT TIMING...FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL PLACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY 9/10 PM...ABI AROUND MIDNIGHT...SJT BEFORE SUNRISE. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHO POSITION AND PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAKES WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPS THE BIGGEST GAMBLE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ...COULD HAVE BIG TEMPERATURE BUST IF FRONT PROGRESSES PAST PROJECTED STALL LINE FROM ABOUT BIG SPRING TO SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION. FRONT MAY MOVE A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON THURSDAY. JUST NOT ENOUGH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL NULL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO BAJA CA FRIDAY...THEN OPENS AND SHEARS OUT. DYNAMICS WORKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS MOISTURE IMPAIRED SO WILL DISCOUNT ANY MENTION OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST. EXTENDED TEMPS LOOK AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS ARCTIC AIR FESTERING IN CANADA MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN MODELS INDICATE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABI 042/062/038/069 00000 SJT 046/068/042/072 00000 JCT 046/073/047/074 000-- $$ 25 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 135 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...40 DEGREES OVER 50 MILES IN SOME CASES. SATELLITE SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW DEPICTED BY RADAR EXTENDING FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ETA/GFS/RUC SHOWING THIS VERY WELL ON THE 295K SURFACE...BOTH ADIABATICALLY AND DIABATICALLY. SATELLITE LOOP FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SOME BANDING...SUGGESTING THIS DIABATIC COMPONENT IS DEFINITELY A PLAYER. ONE CONCERN INITIALLY IS THAT THE SNOW BAND WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH THAN IS FORECAST BY EITHER THE MODELS OR OUR CURRENT FORECAST. THE BAND IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY ENHANCEMENT MOVING THROUGH IOWA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS AREA...DEVELOPING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A FEW COUNTIES...WILL NOT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE FINAL MOMENTS BEFORE ISSUANCE TO ADJUST. THEN WILL DEFER TO EVENING SHIFT TO REFINE FURTHER. FOR TONIGHT...THE ETA/GFS/RUC ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES CONCENTRATED AN AN AREA THAT EXTENDS INITIALLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CLAYTON AND GRANT. THIS AREA MOVES SOUTH OF THESE COUNTIES BY 03Z. LINEAR CROSS SECTION FROM KUNI-KHYR SHOWS AN AREA OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY...SUGGESTING SLANTWISE CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE -10 UBAR/S DIABATIC TERM ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 2-3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES. AM THINKING THAT WE MIGHT BE UNDERDONE WITH THE AMOUNTS OVER CLAYTON AND GRANT. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THERE WITH CURRENT 4-6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THINK WE WILL BE AT HIGH END OF THIS. REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO GOING STORM FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE EVENT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ETA/GFS. THUS...EVENING SHIFT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND BASED ON LATER TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK. FOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES RIGHT OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE EVENING LOWS THAT NIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING IN...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS WILL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURE FALLS AFTER 06Z. THIS IS ALREADY REPRESENTED WELL IN THE FORECAST. STRONG SIGNAL FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW (BOUNDARY LAYER) BY 10 KNOTS FROM MONDAYS 12Z RUN. THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES OVER MOS...DESPITE SNOW COVER. MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OVERCOME SOME OF THE COOLING FROM THE SNOW. ALSO...BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND NOW THE ETA. RAISED SNOW CHANCES BY 10 PERCENT BASED ON ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION. DIURNAL VARIATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE 10-15 DEGREES AT MOST GIVEN THE CLOUDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A FEW RUNS NOW VERSUS THE CONSTANT CHANGING OF THE GFS. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES BY 10 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME PERIODS AND LEFT TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME. SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONSISTENCY. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THIS...THERE ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO ERROR ON THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN THE BETTER MODEL OF LATE. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE ARCTIC HIGH WOULD MOVE FURTHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PRECLUDING THE FORECAST AREA FROM SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. .LSE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ094>096-WIZ053>055-061. $$ KRC wi