AXNT20 KNHC 100528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE VINCE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.5N 17.8W AT 10/0300 UTC ABOUT 490 NM ESE OF THE AZORES OR ABOUT 110 NM NNW OF MADEIRA ISLANDS MOVING NE AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. VINCE REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT ONLY 15 NM FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE CENTER FROM 33N-35N BETWEEN 16.5W-18W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST AND IS ALSO ENHANCING SOME ITCZ CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ AXIS. CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. W/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 13N. WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 53W/56W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND SSW SURFACE FLOW...THUS WAVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS MASKED WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N28W 9N44W 13N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 15W-40W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UNANALYZED HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. A SMALL 1006 MB LOW NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA IS MOVING E TO INLAND NW OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE SE U.S. DIPPING TO THE N GULF COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. COAST INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING W UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH IT STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS CREATING A VERY TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH NO SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SURFACE WINDS. THIS HOWEVER WILL CHANGE BY MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N84W TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N83W SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N81W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UNUSUAL SW SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION E OF 80W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N W OF 80W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX. THIS WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS MOST THE AREA THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES EXTENDS JUST INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION. UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE...STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 26N63W. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE LOW FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN... AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF LINE FROM 26N76W 19N66W TO 21N62W TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 350/400 NM SE OF LINE 21N62W TO 24N60W... AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N52W TO 30N60W ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. EMBEDDED BENEATH IS UPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 75W FROM THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N TO 28N AND A 1011 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO...IS CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N66W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 50W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH 23N27W TO NEAR 18N36W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 24W-50W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. AFRICAN DUST CAN BE SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...HINTING AT ITS DENSITY...S OF A LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 20N30W. ALL OF THIS IS PRODUCING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC E OF 50W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WILL NARROW AS AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC MOVES SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...THUS ALLOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE N FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. THE W ATLC WILL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST THE ATLC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ WALLACE