EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
840 PM PDT WED JUN 16 1999
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST. CLOSER TO THE
COAST...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CLEAR TO NEAR THE
BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TARGET WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED AT MOST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR HEMET...MIRAMAR...RANCHO
BERNARDO...FREMONT CANYON...AND BORREGO MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW
BASED ON HIGH TEMPERATURES OBSERVED TODAY AND EXPECTED GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THU AND FRI...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPDATE AT
THIS TIME...SO WL LEAVE FOR NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE ON THE MID SHIFT.
ACARS SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING SHOW THE MARINE LYR DEPTH RANGING FM
1500 TO 2000 FT ALG THE CST...TO 2000 TO 2500 FEET IN THE VLYS OF
THE INLAND EMPIRE. THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO ALLOW STRATUS TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO THE INLAND VLYS. WK EDDY FORECAST TO FORM
OVERNIGHT BY COAMPS AND RUC SHOULD DECAY FASTER THU AS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR THE EDDY WEAKENS. SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR AN EDDY IS WEAKER
THU NIGHT WITH NEITHER COAMPS OR RUC DEVELOPING AN EDDY.
HEIGHTS ALF TO INCR SOME THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINOR CHANGES FOR
FRI. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DECR IN MARINE LYR DEPTH THU TO
AROUND 1500 OR A LTL LWR WITH A MARINE LYR DEPTH FRI OF 1000 TO 1500
FT. THUS...FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WL INCRGLY BE
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE CST. WITH THE STRONG INVERSION AND ONLY WK
ONSHR GRADIENTS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WL CLEAR BACK TO THE CST
EARLIER...BUT REMAIN NR THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND...AVN SHOWS AN UPR RDG BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVR THE SW CNTRD
NR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH SHALLOW MID LVL MSTR RETURNING TO ERN SXNS
OF SRN CA. THIS SHOULD BE AT LEAST SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS FROM THE SBD MTNS S SAT AND SUN. ENOUGH
MONSOONAL MSTR MAY ARRIVE BY SUN FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
SRN MTNS AND ERN DESERTS OF SRN CA.
IN GENERAL THRU THE WEEKEND...SEASONAL WEATHER WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AWAY FM THE CST WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING NR THE
BEACHES.
SAN 0000
.SAN...NONE.
MARTIN
FXUS66 KHNX 162212 COR ca
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
234 AM MDT WED JUN 16 1999
AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING ACCORDING TO KGJX RADAR. WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL CO...WHICH NONE OF THE MODELS
PICK UP ON EXCEPT 06Z RUC. VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE DIVIDE BEFORE
SUNRISE SO NOT A FACTOR IN TODAY'S FORECAST...BUT DOES DEMONSTRATE
THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING WITH SUBTLETIES (OR NOT SO SUBTLE
FEATURES) OF CURRENT PATTERN. LIFTING MECHANISM OVER THE SAN JUANS
LESS CLEARLY DEFINED...BUT LIKELY ANOTHER WEAK UNANALYZED DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AZ/NM BORDER AREA.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE INDICATED OVER WESTERN WY EARLY THIS
MORNING JUST TOPPING THE RIDGE AND BEGINNING TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD.
RUC INDICATES THIS FEATURE TO SHEAR OUT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WARMING TOPS.
MODELS NOT DISSIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. AVN IS SLOWEST THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HRS...
THOUGH APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE FIELD THAN
EITHER NGM OR ETA. ETA IS JUST FLAT TOO DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWFA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV AND IR IMAGERY...
SO AVN FAVORED. DESPITE UPPER RIDGE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGELY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PERSISTENCE SEEMS BEST BET WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES...THEREFORE MOS GUIDANCE LARGELY ACCEPTED. TROF OVER THE
WEST FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OVERNIGHT...SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
PAST DARK ONCE AGAIN. NOT MUCH CHANGE INDICATED FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH
RIDGE FLATTER FOLLOWING TROF PASSAGE. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA
JUST A BIT DRIER WITH SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW...WHILE SOUTH
REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST.
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.
NL
.GJT...NONE.
co
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
904 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE THE PAST HOUR.
THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS...RUC AND MESOETA...
BOTH DEPICTING AN AREA OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY MOVING S-N OVER THE
PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEP
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PULLING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND KEEP SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES
PLANNED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
.MLB...NONE.
WIMMER/TROUTMAN
FXUS62 KTAE 170038 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER FA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. EXPECT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS ON WEST COAST TO PROLONG STORMS ON
EAST COAST...SO STORMS SHOULD LINGER LATE INTO THE EVENING.
ALSO...RUC MODEL SHOWS PVA AFFECTING FA AS 500 MB VORT MAX MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A CONCERN THIS EVENING DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HIGH PWATS.
THURSDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED...AS FLOW
ALOFT VEERS TO SW AND STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING EAST COAST
TROUGH. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE TO FORM. ALTHOUGH...IF INLAND CONVECTION FORMS TOO EARLY...IT
COULD DISRUPT EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MID DAY THURSDAY INTO
THE EVENING. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING AOA 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN OCCUR. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST COAST.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...TAIL END OF MID/UPPER TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CUTOFF.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE FRIDAY. TROUGH WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...AND DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. MESO-SCALE FORCING WILL AGAIN
DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST CLIMO COVERAGE OF MAINLY DAYTIME STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO ONSHORE COMPONENT...GREASTEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA...PEAKING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOONS. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES.
MARINE...WEAK FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SOME THU AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH
APPROACHING FL/GA BORDER. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
WILL INDICATE SURFACE TROUGH REACHING/STALLING OVER FLAGLER-COCOA
LEG FRI NIGHT.
DAB TT 073/089 073/088 073 65464
MCO TT 073/088 073/090 073 65463
MLB TT 074/088 074/088 074 65464
.MLB...NONE.
BORZILLERI/SPRATT
FXUS62 KTBW 161801 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
854 PM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
NRN STREAM VORT MAX NOW MOVING INTO SE CWA. NOW...WITH LOSS OF
AFTERNOON HEATING...PRECIP HAS CAME TO AN END...OR MOVED EAST OF
KOTM. THUS...AN UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED FOR SURE TO REMOVE EVENING
PRECIP WORDING.
SFC RIDGE OVER MO RIVER...TO CEN KS AT 00Z...AND SLOWLY SLIDING EAST
TO RIGHT OVER CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL EFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOOKING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONLY MINOR CAA AT 80H PER 00Z RAOBS. DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN SRN AND CEN MN ARE IN 35 TO 40 DEG F RANGE...BUT WITH
LIGHT WINDS...DON/T EXPECT THAT DRY OF AIR TO WORK REAL FAR INTO
CWA. ALREADY HAVE 40 TO 45 DEG GOING OVER NRN CWA. WILL LEAVE. 00Z
RUC WOULD ALSO SAY THAT CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE ON TRACK CWA.
MAY DEW OUT SOME...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ZONES PER RUC BL RH
PROGGS. WILL UPDATE TAFS THO TO MENTION A LITTLE MVFR FOG AT KDSM
AND KOTM.
ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
.DSM...NONE.
SEARCY
FXUS63 KDMX 161929 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
854 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
WILL THROW OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS FORECAST SKY CONDITIONS NOT
PANNING OUT. LOOKING AT LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL...SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW CLDS HANGING AROUND IN ERN 1/2 OF CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN
ALONG WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WAVE ALG FNT MOVES FROM SRN GLF CST
STATES NE INTO SRN APPLS...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROF POKING INTO FAR ERN
KY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SFC MOIST CONVERGENCE THROUGH THIS AFTN AND ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THIS CLD COVER WILL ALSO AFFECT
HIGH TEMPS AND MAY LOWER A BIT. 09Z RUC/00Z ETA ARE HANDLING THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES BETTER AT THIS POINT.
.JKL...NONE
WHP
FXUS71 KRLX 161049 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
900 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
KLWX RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED FROM BALTIMORE SWWD INTO SWRN
VA... WITH MORE RAIN EXTENDING INTO THE VA PANHANDLE AND WRN NC. RAIN
MOVING STEADILY ENE... WITH COVERAGE APPEARING TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
PRECIP CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA A RESULT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 295-310K.
MAIN SHORT WAVE STAYS WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT.. AND SHOULD NOT HAVE AN
EFFECT ON US UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 21Z RUC AND 12Z RAMS MODEL
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...
RESULTING IN SOME UPSLOPE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO AID IN
INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
HAVE INDICATED ONLY LIGHT PRECIP FOR FAR NERN CORNER OF FA TONIGHT...AS
DYNAMIC/OROGRAPHIC FACTORS SHOULD NOT EFFECT THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THOUGH
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TOMORROW AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT
BECOMES BETTER.
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA..
AND SHOULD COME UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN. WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON THIS... AND WILL HAVE TO
MAKE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO TOMORROWS HIGHS ACCORDINGLY.
.LWX...NONE.
MARGRAF!
FXUS61 KLWX 161842 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES JUST SOUTH
OF SNE COAST. LATEST RUC MODEL RUN HAS THIS FEATURE CREEPING SLOLY
NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS PM. SAT LOOP TRENDS DO SHOW A SUBTLE
NORTHWARD DRIFT OF CLOUDS AS WELL. WILL MAKE FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC FOR CAPE COD/ISLANDS/COASTAL RI.
OTRW...MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS REST OF ZNS THIS PM.
MARINE WINDS UPPED A LITTLE SRN SHORES...OTRW THINGS ON THE WATER
LOOK OK.
.BOX...NONE.
FRANKLIN
ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1110 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR OVRNGT INCLUDE TEMPS/CLDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FROST.
LATEST WV SATL LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OVR NRN QUEBEC SLOWLY PULLING EWD
IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS OVR THE WRN GREAT LAKES. YET WK VORT
SPOKE FM LOW ROTATING INTO SE ONTARIO BRINGING IN SOME MID-HI LVL
CLDS INTO FA FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 00Z RUC 295K SFC...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE ERN HALF OF UPR OVRNGT...WOULD ARGUE FOR CLDS CONTINUING TO HOLD
TOGETHER. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWING STEADY PROGRESSION OF CLDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR CONVINCING ENOUGH TO KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY MENTION OVR
ALL ZONES FOR OVRNGT...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH BREAKS UPSTREAM TO PREVENT
SOLID OVRCAST FM OCCURRING.
SLGT PUSH SWD OF SFC TROF OVR ONTARIO WILL ACT TO INCREASE NWLY GRAD
WNDS TO AROUND 5 KTS OVR FA OVRNGT. THIS ALG WILL BKN CLD CVR WILL
KEEP MINS UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABV CURRENT DWPNTS...WHICH ARE GENLY IN
UPPER 30S AT MOST STATIONS. THUS...HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF FROST
AND RAISED MINS UP TO AROUND 40 IN MOST ZONES. EXCEPTION WAS OVR
KEWEENAW WHERE TIGHTER NW WND GRAD WILL PROVIDE GREATEST
MIXING...WENT 40 TO 45 THERE.
VOSS
.MQT...NONE.
DLG
FXUS63 KGRR 170309 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
830 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999
MAIN CONCERNS FOR EVENING UPDATE ARE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED TODAY ARE NOW OUT OF THE
REGION. AREAS OF GENERALLY HIGH CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE OVER WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE S/W. THIS
WILL GIVE A CLEARING TREND FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY
FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. RUC RH
FIELDS SHOW THESE CLOUDS MISSING EASTERN UPPER BUT BASED ON CURRENT
TRAJECTORY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MOVE IN TOWARD SUNRISE. THEY ARE
BREAKING UP SOME AS THEY MOVE SOUTH SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
UP NORTH.
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD AND WILL LEAVE ALONE.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S NOT TOO FAR UPSTREAM AND CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW READINGS TO DROP QUICKLY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FROST IN FORECAST BUT FOG MIGHT BE A BIGGER PROBLEM WITH RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER TODAY.
.APX...NONE.
FARINA
FXUS63 KDTX 162314 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED SOME HEATING THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY SOME TSTM ACTIVITY
OCCURRING ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND WI ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME HAIL REPORTS. WOULD EXPECT THIS TYPE OF
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AS 500 MB TEMPS
BELOW -20C SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
BELIEVE THREAT FOR SOME SCTD TSTM ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD A LITTLE
FURTHER S ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
NOW THAT MID/HI CLDS ARE BEING LOST SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR. LATEST
RUC DATA HAS LIFTED INDICIES FALLING TO ZERO OR BELOW BY 00Z. ALSO
LGT AND VRBL WIND FIELD MAY ALLOW LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION TO
OCCUR... AND IT APPEARS MKG ALREADY HAS A LK BREEZE. WILL THEREFORE
FCST SCT SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE NW 1/2 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND WILL WAIT TIL LAST MINUTE TO DETERMINE HOW TO
HANDLE SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AS HI CLDS STILL LINGER THERE
AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING IS THAT IF ACTIVITY
BECOMES WDSPRD OVER WI...IT WILL LIKELY ADVECT INTO SW MI.
PASSAGE OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN END TO MAIN
SHOWER THREAT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS...BRINGING IT TO A
MACKINAC BRIDGE TO CHICAGO LINE BY 12Z THURS...ALPENA TO JACKSON BY
18Z...AND WELL EAST OF HERE BY 00Z THURS. STILL EXPECT SOME CU
FORMATION IN THE WAKE OF SHTWV WITH COLD CORE ALOFT. PTLY SUNNY
FCST SHOULD HANDLE THIS...AND WILL ONLY HAVE CHC POPS OVER THE E/SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA ON THURS.
FCST GETS LESS COMPLICATED FOR THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS LRG SFC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THIS SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES AND CHILLY
TEMPS THURS NGT...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPS ON
FRI.
MEADE
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TODAY'S 00Z RUN OF MRF CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IN DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MN SATURDAY AND MOVING THIS
FEATURE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. MRF
DEVELOPS THIS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF MI SUN/MON.
LATEST 00Z RUN OF UKMET TRENDS TOWARD MRF...A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
RUN. CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS STILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THIS TROF
AND LEAN TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TOWARD END OF PERIOD
(MON)...BUT STILL SHOW SOME WEAK UVM ACROSS THE CWA SAT NIGHT/SUN.
WILL THEREFORE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE CHANCE OF PCPN
INTO EXTENDED FCST. BELIEVE MRF STILL OVER-DRAMATIZES CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MONDAY'S SKY
CONDITION. GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH PERIOD...TEMPS BELOW CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEAR CLIMO FOR MONDAY.
KWG
.GRR...NONE.
FXUS63 KAPX 161924 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS LIGHT SHOWERS.
500MB PATTERN HAS A BROAD CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A
LONG TROF NOW MAKING LANDFALL AS FAR SOUTH AS CALIFORNIA. A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS UP THROUGH
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO ALASKA. A BROAD 500MB CUT-OFF LOW IS OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SOUTH
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF. THE AXIS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS
NOW RIGHT OVER THE U.P. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW INTO THE U.P. IS THUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AT AROUND 0 TO +2C.
700-300MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS BEST LIFT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS. WITH THE TROF NOW CROSSING THE U.P. FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH... THE U.P. WILL COME UNDER INCREASING QVECTOR DIVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL 1000-500MB RH FORECASTS SHOW DRYING NORTH OF
THE UPPER TROF AXIS AS WELL. THIS DRYING IS WELL DEPICTED ON MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 1530Z...CLOUDS WERE RAPIDLY THINNING OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES AND KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MORNING 88D RETURNS SHOW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
UPPER PATTERN IS NOT PROGRESSIVE...WITH 500MB CUT-OFF LOWS JUST
SPINNING AWAY IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLOWLY FINISH ITS
CROSSING OF THE U.P. BY THIS EVENING. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...12Z RUC SEEMS TOO SLOW IN SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. PREFER ETA
WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FASTER. SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES... BUT EVEN THERE THEY SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
OLD 00Z NGM QPF SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST...AND KEEPS SHOWERS EAST
OF A MENOMINEE COUNTY-DELTA COUNTY LINE FROM 12-18Z...AND THEN
ENDING AROUND 18Z IN THE EAST. DESPITE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
ENTERING THE U.P. FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE... THERE
SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE UP IN THE 850-700MB LAYER FOR A SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE DOES SHOW AMPLE DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO ALREADY THIS MORNING...AND SOME
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FIRE UP IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS WELL. LAKE
BREEZE WIND WILL ONLY INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WIND IN THE WEST AND
KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG THE SHORE.
.MQT...NONE.
ES
FXUS63 KDTX 161426 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1025 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO ADD A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. 12Z RUC SHOWING 500MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
NEAR -18C BY 21Z ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE THUMB. THIS AREA
WILL ALSO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH 850-700MB MEAN
RH REACHING THE 80 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THIS WILL BE THE BIG INHIBITING FACTOR FOR ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THEREFORE JUST MENTION SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLOUDINESS FROM MIDLAND COUNTY EAST TO THE TIP OF THE THUMB
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING UP... BUT WITH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT ANY SUNSHINE THAT THIS AREA SEES SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
CU SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
PRESENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
.DTX...NONE.
KEYES
FXUS63 KMQT 160839 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
MAIN FCST QUESTIONS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE FATE OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS UPR
MI THIS MORNING ALONG WITH TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS.
MID/UPR LVL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RDG OVER WRN CANADA TROF
FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND AND WRN GRT LAKES. SHRTWV
AND SHEAR AXIS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PER WV LOOP...WAS SINKING
SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD UPR MI. KMQT 88D INDICATED -RA OVER MAINLY NORTH
HLF OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SCT SPRINKLRE OVER THE SOUTH. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
GOOD 850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHRTWV. GOOD 850-700
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN ELONGATED PCPN BAND.
00Z NGM SEEMED TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON PCPN AND FORCING MECHANISMS.
06Z RUC ALSO A BIT SLOWER WITH MOVING SHEAR AXIS THROUGH COMPARED TO
00Z MDLS. MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE...STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE AND 850-500 DRYING BTWN
15Z-21Z FROM NW TO SE. SO...EXPECT ANY LINGERING RAIN TO END BY 15Z
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ENSUING FOR AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 3-5C ALONG WITH 850 TEMP FROM 0 TO -2C
FOR CU AND SC FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING ANY CLEARING.
SFC HI PRES WL EXPAND INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY WITH CLEARING SKIES
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NW TO NORTH WINDS. BNDRY LYR WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SETTING UP. WL GO AOB GUIDANCE WITH POSSIBILITY AGAIN OF
PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY INLAND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
MDLS IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING UPR MI UNDER GRIP OF SFC RDG AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS IN GOING FCST.
GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LK BREEZES WITH USUAL TEMP
VARIATION FROM AREAS NEAR LAKE TO INLAND LOCATIONS. H85 TEMPS MODIFY
AS THERMAL TROF ALSO SINKS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME CU
FORMATION...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER MOSUNNY FCST.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 160810 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
500 MB VORTICITY ADVECTION DEPICTED ON THE MODELS. RUC SHOWS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH 12Z BUT THEN WASHES IT OUT BY 15Z. RUC SHIFTS IT
ATTENTION TO ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT CONFIRM FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS
FEATURE IS AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE RUC SUGGESTS. INCLINED TO GO WITH
THE OLD ETA AND NGM SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE
BASED SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES THIS AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND MOST OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF 12Z
CHANHASSEN SOUNDING WHICH WHEN RECONSTRUCTED WITH THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOWS CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE 60S SOME AREAS.
.MPX...NONE
WH
FXUS63 KMPX 160841 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
FORECAST FOCUS IS CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
AND FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY EXHIBIT STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF NORTH AMERICA. THE STRONGEST
IN A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO PENETRATE
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DLH CWA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ETA AND RUC TO BE A BIT FAST IN CAPTURING THIS WAVE...SO WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DLH CWA...WITH LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING.
ETA 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW 0C THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE DLH CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AROUND THE PEAK OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT SCATTERED FROST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
COORDINATED WITH MPX.
.DLH...NONE.
AUSTIN
mn
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
930 PM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC DATA...SOME DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE 300-305K THETA LAYER DUE TO RISING THETA SURFACES...DESPITE
WEAK DOWNGLIDE. BELIEVE RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTED ON BY THE RISING AIR FOR CLOUD
DECK...CURRENTLY OVER AR/TN...TO DRIFT INTO N PORTIONS OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT. RUC IS SHOWING A TRANSITION FROM THE DOMINANCE OF THE
RISING THETA SURFACES TO MORE DOWNGLIDE BY 12Z...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO DECREASE TOWARD MORNING. WILL...THEREFORE...WORD PARTLY CLOUDY IN
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO
HAMPER RADIATIONAL EFFECTS...THUS HAVE UPPED MINS A BIT.
LOSS OF HEATING IN THE S HAS ALLOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
TO DIMINISH...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LINGERING FRONT MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...LEFT
SLIGHT POPS IN THERE.
.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
26
FXUS74 KJAN 161901 ms
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND CLOUDS AND THEIR
EFFECT ON TEMPS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL PCPN CHANCES WITH
SHORTWAVE MOVG ACROSS IA THIS AFTN. 19Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR NRN MO...WHERE TEMPS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO LWR 60S. SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED CLD COVER NOTED
OVR NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE KDMX REFL DEPICTS BAND OF -SHRA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SEWD THIS PM.
CONCERNED SOMEWHAT AS TO WHAT EFFECTS THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WRT
SENSIBLE WX. CURRENT FCST HAS LOW POPS IN THIS EVENING ACROSS NERN
CWA AND FEEL IT PRUDENT TO LEAVE INTACT WITH BEST DYNAMICS PROGGED
TO AFFECT THIS AREA BY 12Z RUNS OF ETA/NGM/AVN AND 15Z RUN OF RUC.
PROBABLY WILL ALSO NEED TO HOLD ONTO EVENING MENTION ACROSS FAR SRN
CWA WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY.
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT TEMPS TONIGHT AS FWC/FAN GUIDANCE QUITE
COOL...WELL INTO RECORD TERRITORY. TEMPS TONIGHT HIGHLY CONTINGENT
ON CLOUD COVER DISSIPATION...BUT VIS IMAGERY CONFIRMING DECENT
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IA SHORTWAVE WITH QUICK CLEARING AFTER ITS
PASSAGE. WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. PROBABLY WILL TREND A HAIR OR SO ABOVE
GUIDANCE.
WAA PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH ETA FCST PROGGING DECENT MOIST RETURN ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS BY THU EVENING. BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF CWA TOMORROW INTO THU NIGHT...ALONG
BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS. PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF DISTURANCES IN NWLY FLOW. LOW
POPS FRIDAY SEEM IN ORDER ALTHOUGH HAVE A FEELING THAT CHANCES MAY
BE CONFINED TO LATE IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY. DECENT WARMUP IN
STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WRN US RIDGE BUILDS EWD INTO PLAINS.
.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
HUDSON
FXUS63 KSGF 161906 mo
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1105 AM MDT WED JUN 16 1999
FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS IN ZONES UPDATED BASED ON LATEST RUC OUTPUT
AND REVIEW OF PERTINENT PCGRIDDS MACROS. 38
.ABQ...NONE.
FXUS75 KABQ 160903 nm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
845 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
WX PATTERN TNT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT HAS
SLIPPED A LITTLE FURTHER S AND EXTENDS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO
JACKSONVILLE AND LUMBERTON. RUC AND MESOETA DOING A GOOD JOB
PICKING UP ON AREAS OF ENHANCED OMEGA OVR SC AND SERN NC. H5 VORT
OVR SC SPARKING OFF NUMEROUS TSTMS. THIS VORT WILL MOVE TO NEAR
FAYETTEVILLE LATER THU MORN. ANOTHER VORT OVER SERN NC IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SCT SHRA ACROSS CWA. THIS VORT AND ASSOC OMEGA WILL SLOWLY PUSH
E OVERNIGHT KEEPING SCT SHRA OVR MOST OF THE AREA. MESOETA MOVES
THE BEST LIFT E TNT KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN OVER ERN NC AND SC.
WITH A JET STREAK TO THE N...AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR RIGHT REAR QUAD
ALLOWING FOR UPPER DIVRG TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THRU THE NIGHT. THE
RUC DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AROUND LUMBERTON TNT. THIS
FEATURE IS ALREADY BEING REFLECTED IN SFC ANAL AND SHOULD FURTHER AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA. EXPECT MORE RAIN OVER ENTIRE CWA TNT
THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. CURRENT ZONES ON TRACK.
CWF...WITH FRONT SPLITTING COASTAL WATERS BTWN HAT AND LOOKOUT CWF A
LITTLE TRICKY. LOW OFFSHORE OF DUCK ALONG FRONT HAS DEEPENED A
LITTLE AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR 20 KT WINDS FROM DUCN7 TO CHLV2. SEAS
AT DUCN7 AROUND 6 FEET. BELIEVE THIS IS IN PART DUE TO WIND BUT ALSO
DUE TO SWELL CREATED BY T.S. ARLENE. N WINDS ARE LIKELY BUCKING UP
AGAINST THE SE SWELL CAUSING SOME HIGHER SEAS WITH LONGER PERIODS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON RAISING SCA FOR NOW. WINDS S OF LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE S.
.MHX...NONE.
JO
FXUS62 KILM 161935 AMD nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
LATEST MSAS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC FRNT DRAPED ACROSS THE FA.
HOWEVER...ATM NOT AS PRIMED FOR CONVECTION AS IT WAS YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME PER MSAS. LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA INDICATES WEAK UPPER
ENERGY TO MOVE NE ALONG FRNT THIS AFTN...STAYING A BIT FURTHER N AND W
THAN YESTERDAYS S/W. AS MID-SHIFT SAID...THIS COULD LIFT FRNT A TAD
TO THE N...ENUF TO GIVE SOME INSOLATION TO SUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA.
BASED ON LATEST KLTX RETURNS BY PRESS TIME MAY CUT POPS BACK TO
40-50. 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ON A VERY DRY SOIL. FFG THRESHOLDS HAVE COME
DOWN BUT NOT ENUF TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AS PROBLEM AREAS WILL BE
ISOLATED.
TEMPS...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FCST AOK.
CWF...S-SW WND DIRECTION SHULD PREDOMINATE. WILL INITIATE VARIABLE
WND DIR FOR ZNS CLOSER TO THE FRNT BECOMING S. OTHERWISE A SW DIR
FOR THE SUTHERN ZNS.
.ILM...NONE.
DCH
nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
BROAD SCALE SUBS IN CONTROL ACROSS FA WITH LAST WAVE FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST RUC MODEL SOUNDING INDICATING LESS LOW LEVEL RH
THAN IN PAST DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. AS A RESULT ONLY SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MOST FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO NE ACROSS EXT NE ZONES
WHERE CU STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE FROM VIS LOOP. WITH INCREASED SOLAR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT READINGS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YSTDY. ALL THIS HANDLED WELL BY ONGOING FCST AND SEE NO REASON FOR
UPDATE.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KBIS 160846 AMD nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
KILN AND KIND SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE
WEST OF FA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE
IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. 00Z ILN SOUNDING IS RELATIVELY DRY.
21Z RUC SHOWS BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB MOST
OF THE NIGHT OVER FA. HOWEVER 21Z RUC ALSO ONLY SHOWS ATMOSPHERE
ONLY MOISTENING UP ONLY MARGINALLY. SO WILL LEAVE POP WORDING ALONE
ACROSS SOUTH. BUT WILL INTRODUCE 30 POP FOR DAY AND WAPOK AND UP
CMH TO 40 POP PER CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MISILN SENT TO ALL.
.ILN...NONE.
TIPTON
FXUS61 KCLE 170145 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE ZONE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EAST COAST.
THE RUC AND MESO-ETA INDICATE SOME MOISTURE MAY GET INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OHIO BY 00Z. THIS IS HANDLED IN
THE ZONES WELL. LIFT AND MOISTURE NOT SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE
PCPN AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. WITH A NE FLOW I WILL MENTION
TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z RUN OF THE RUC. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
COOLER FOR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
.CLE...NONE
GARNET
FXUS61 KILN 161409 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
830 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. 21Z RUC MODEL SHOWS
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION OF JETLET PARALLEL TO AND JUST E
OF THE MTNS THROUGH 09Z. WHILE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY
SHUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION WITH VEERING WINDS...
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE LOW VICINITY WILL ENHANCE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TO PROVIDE DECENT OMEGA
UNTIL ABOUT 09Z BEFORE SHUTTING OFF. SINCE THE NC PIEDMONT HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER BY PRECIP AS MUCH AS AREAS SOUTH AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM BY WEAK INSTABILITY...WE CAN STILL FOREGO A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH URBAN AND FLASHY SECTIONS
ESPECIALLY CLOSELY.
WILL ADJUST TEMP WORDING TO STEADY SINCE MOST LOCATIONS ARE AT THEIR
OVERNIGHT MINS.
.GSP...NONE.
HG
FXUS62 KCHS 161905 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
MODELS ARE NOT QUITE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS
FORECAST. THE GIVENS ARE THAT THE WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER SC WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH TNGT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE ON THU SLOWLY USHERING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT. THE DETAILS IN QUESTION ARE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TNGT...THE TIMING AND MOVMENT OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON THU AND THU NGT...AND WHAT
HAPPENS TO THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRI. WILL GO WITH AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR TNGT TEMPS NEAR FWC.
THE RUC SEEMS TO PICK UP AND HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF MINOR UPPER
LEVEL WAVES QUITE WELL IN THE SHORT TERM. IT INDICATES SOME NEUTRAL
TO WEAK PVA OVER CENTRAL SC THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TNGT. LO LVL
BOUNDARY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE THE CWA WITH SFC STREAMLINE
CONVERGING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER CENTRAL GA.
VIS INDICATES SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THUS EXPECT CONVECTION TO AGAIN MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL SC
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG. BY 12Z THU...THE AVN HAS THE LO LVL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST N OF CHESTERFIELD WHILE THE ETA HAS
THE CENTER FURTHER WEST NEAR NEWBERRY. NOT A BIG DIFFERENCE. BY 18Z
BOTH MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE OF INTO THE NC WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRAILING S BEHIND IT. BOTH THE AVN AND ETA HAVE THE FRONT
AS DEPICTED IN THE LI AND STREAMLINE FIELD OVER THE CWA IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (SBLI AROUND -5). THUS THE MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, AND FORCING ARE THERE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION ABOUT MID-DAY ON THU. BEST CHC THOUGH LOOKS TO BE COASTAL
SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AGAIN ON THU WITH TEMPS NEAR FWC.
AT THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE ETA DEVELOPS ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN GA THU NGT WHICH RETARDS
ITS EWRD PROGRESS. THIS LOOKS TO BE RELATED TO THE ETA/S HANDLING OF
THE VORT MAX CROSSING NRN FL INTO THE LOW COUNTRY LATE THU NGT. THE
AVN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND AS A RESULT PLOWS
THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. EVEN IF THE ETA SOLN IS
CORRECT, THIS FEATURE SHOULD PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM ON FRI AND
MOVE QUICKLY E DURING THE DAY. MAIN EFFECT ON FCST WILL BE WITH
TEMPS AND WINDS THU NGT AND FRI. WILL GO WITH A 20 TO 30 POP ON THU
NIGHT BASED ON ETA/S HANDLING OF FRONT AND VORT TOGETHER WITH FWC
POP OF 40. MIGHT BE SOMTHING TO IT. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN TO
MENTION POP FOR FRI.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE 061600 MRF DROPS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SE OVER THE SRN GT LKS REGION AND CUTS THIS FEATURE OFF OVER SRN
IN/OH BY 00Z TUE. A SHORTWAVE MOVES N AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HI TOWARD THE SE US OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON. AT THE
SFC, HI PRES MOVES ACROSS THE NE STATES OVER THE ATLANTIC. A MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SETS UP LATE SUN INTO MON. A LOOK AT
THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS SHOWS THE RUNS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO
THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN...I.E., A MEAN TROF POSN OVER THE ERN US.
THEY DISAGREE AS TO THE DETAILS. FOR THE CAE CWA, WILL CONTINUE
TREND FOR AFTN TSTMS ON SUN AND MON INCREASING RH IN RETURN FLOW AND
APPROACHING VORT MAX. WILL USE SCT OR WIDELY SCT TERMINOLOGY. FMR
TEMPS LOOK OK, LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.CAE...NONE.
CAMMARATA
ƒ
FXUS62 KGSP 161402 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1002 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
DEEP MOIST AIR MASS AND SFC FNT CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ONE
WIDESPREAD PATCH OF RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NC ATTM. MORE PRECIP TO THE
WEST. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET AND VORT MAX SHOWN ON BOTH 09Z
RUC AND 03Z ETA FCST TO MOVE THRU TODAY. PRECIP BEGINNING TO FILL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE OF THE CURRENT PRECIP AREA DUE TO THIS. ATMOS STILL
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING SHOWN AS FAR NORTH AS
NC/TN BORDER. CURRENT CAT POPS AND THUNDER MENTION STILL LOOKS GOOD.
HIGH FCST REACHABLE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS. MAY HAVE TO TREND
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD THOUGH IF LATEST TRENDS INDICATE.
.GSP...NONE.
RWH
FXUS62 KCHS 161347 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
825 PM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
JUST UPDATED THE KSUX AND KYKN ZONES TO TAKE OUT THE EVENING WORDING
OF SHWRS. THEY HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE DAYTIME HTG...AS WELL AS THE
CU ACRS THE CWA. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
IS LOW TEMPS. CRNT AND UPSTREAM DEW PTS ARE DRY...SO WHEN THESE WNDS
GO TO NR CALM...SOME RECORD LOWS COULD BE REACHED...ESP ACRS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA. RUC PROGS THE SFC RIDGE TO BE IN THE FAR ERN
SECTION OF CWA BY 09Z TNGT. THEREFORE WNDS WL TURN TO THE EAST AND
SE ACRS THE WRN PTN OF AREA. ALREADY WNDS ARE TO THE EAST AT KPIR
AND KSFD...SO FCST ON TRACK WITH WIND WORDING FOR OUR WRN PTN OF CWA.
.FSD...NONE
FUHS
FXUS63 KUNR 162103 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT WED JUN 16 1999
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SC SD. WEAK SHORTWAVE INDICATED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL MT. THE 18Z RUC HAS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NW SD AT 00Z. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE WY OR WRN SD TONIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END OVER SC SD AROUND
SUNSET...AS DYNAMICS VERY WEAK. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.
.IN THE EXTENDED...A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US THIS
WEEKEND. MRF GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...GIVING US A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.UNR...NONE.
HUSE
FXUS63 KFSD 161956 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
820 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. KMRX/KHTX 88-D INDICATED
THAT THE RAIN WAS EAST OF THE CWA... WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THE
TRI AREA. WHILE THERE WERE SOME BREAKS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU... MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL STILL
WORK FOR THE CWA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EAST
TN FROM CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ALSO CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WERE ALREADY INTO WEST KY AND TN... AND SHOULD BE INTO THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT TODAY/S RAIN HAS MOVED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL ROB SOME OF THE
MOISTURE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER IA... WHICH SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK. BOTH THE MESO-ETA AND 21Z RUC INDICATE GOOD 50H PVA BY
09Z... AND SOME QPF (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH) BY 12Z. WILL
LOWER THE POPS ALL AREAS... BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT.
WITH SOME RAIN TODAY... A FEW BREAKS TONIGHT... DEW POINTS IN THE
60S... AND LIGHT WINDS... WILL INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL TO MUCH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
60S. TEMPS ON TARGET... BOTH WITH THE FORECAST AND LAMP DATA.
RBP
FXUS74 KMEG 161937 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
MASS OF -SHRA/SHRA CONTINUES TO MOV NE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF FA
LATE THIS MORNING AND MORE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS 12Z RUC
INDICATES VORTICITY ADVECTION CONTINUES. ALSO...INVERTED SFC TROF
REMAINS IN PLACE THRU 00Z THU. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOC WITH TROF ALONG WITH CAA ON N-NE FLO IN THE
VALLEY. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN SPARKLING OVR SRN VLY/SRN MTNS AND
MSAS/RUC INDICATE INSTABILITY ALREADY PRESENT OVR THIS AREA. AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOW STABILITY FOR NRN ZONES. BMX SOUNDING MODIFIED TO
NEAR 3000 J/KG CAPE WITH LI'S AROUND -8 SO DEFINITELY TSRA SHOULD
BE ADDED TO SRN ZONES AND WILL ADD TO MTN ZONES. SUPPOSE IT SHOULD
ALSO BE PLACED IN CENTRAL VALLEY ZONES AS WELL. WILL RAISE POPS IN
NE TN AND MTN ZONES WHERE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF DAY.
WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAXES IN A FEW ZONES AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND CAA.
20
FXUS74 KMEG 161431 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1022 PM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
00Z RUC INDICATES LOW CLOUDS QUITE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE ACROSS ALL
AREAS. WILL ADJUST ZONES ACCORDINGLY. WILL LOWER POPS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WHERE STORMS STILL
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH.
SD
FXUS64 KAMA 170229 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
842 PM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS JUST
ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STORMS FORMED
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD...AND PROBABLY AIDED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS WAVE
SHOULD BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...AND WITH NOTHING
LEFT ON THE RADARS AT THIS POINT...WILL PULL REMAINING POPS.
WILL ALSO TWEAK WIND DIRECTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
THE NEW DATA FROM THE 00Z RUC.
07
FXUS64 KCRP 170140 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
209 PM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN CWA WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT NOTED LAST FEW HOURS. LAPS CAPE/CINH INDICATE BEST
ENERGY EXTREME NRN CWA WHERE RADAR INDICATING A FEW CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL HAVE TO HANG ONTO POPS AS A RESULT. 15Z RUC NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSH OF BOUNDARY BUT WILL TREND WINDS E TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE MAY HAVE ONE LAST PUSH...ESPECIALLY IF SOME TSTMS
DEVELOP ALONG IT. POOR MID LEVEL LR'S ACROSS AREA THRU THURSDAY WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. BOUNDARY DIFFICULT TO FIND TMW
AND WILL FAVOR MTN POPS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS E PROVIDING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WITHIN AREA OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LR'S.
OTHERWISE MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND LACK OF BOUNDARY WILL OPT TO
KEEP EXTENDED POPS IN MTNS ONLY. WZIS.
PRELIM
MAF 62/87/64/90 2112
CNM 62/88/65/92 2222
MRF 55/80/56/81 2222
P07 65/89/65/90 2112
GPM
FXUS64 KCRP 161900 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1046 AM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOWING SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING AND
APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ABI DURING THE PAST HOUR. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT CLEARLY EXCEED RISES TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH ETA AND AVN PLACE BEST INSTABILITIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THERE...CAPES WILL REMAIN BELOW
1000 J/KG. WITH 700 MB TEMPS A BIT COOL AND RUNNING AT ONLY 6 TO
7C...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS QUITE LIMITED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 20
PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE ZONES. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THIS THOUGH BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHRS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 700-500 MEAN FLOW.
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO GIVE TEMPS AN UPWARD BOOST. MAY NOT
ADJUST NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS LATEST RUC RECONFIRMS WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
21
FXUS74 KFWD 161508 AMD tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
231 AM MDT WED JUN 16 1999
DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPPED THE POPS FOR SACRAMENTO MTN ZONE TODAY-TONIGHT. CURRENT
OBS AT SUNSPOT AND SRR SHOW GOOD MOIST NE-E PUSH. ALSO 06Z RUC
SHOWS VORT MAX PUSHING INTO THE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCES
GOOD PRECIP THERE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE IN LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
06
N
FXUS64 KAMA 160831 tx
SOUTHEAST WYOMING/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
807 PM MDT WED JUN 16 1999
TSTMS OVR WRN HLF OF WY THIS EVE HAVE SHOWN ONLY A SLGT DCRS IN CVRG AS
WELL AS VRY SLGTLY WARMING TOPS ON SAT IMGRY. RUC AND MESOETA INDICATE
THAT A WK SHRTWV TROF OVR WRN WY WILL MOV INTO THE E THRU THE REST OF
TNGT. HWVR...TSTMS WILL BE RUNNING INTO A MOR STBL AMS AND AWAY FROM
THE LO AND MID LVL THETA E RDG AXIS. MID AND HI CLDS SHUD SPRD OVR THE
CWA TNGT ALG WITH ONLY SOME SPRINKLES. THOSE CLDS WILL THIN SOME AFT
14Z. OTR FCST PROB WILL BE CVRG AND AMNT OF LO CLDS...FOG AND DRZL...
MAINLY ALG AND E OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LO DEWPTS ARE SLWLY INCRSG IN
THE WRN NEB PNHNDL AND NE CO ERY THIS EVE...WITH TRAJECTORIES AT SFC
CONTG THE SLW MOISTENING TREND. BLV THAT THIS WILL KEEP MOST LO CLDS
AND FOG OUT OF FAR SE WY AND THE WRN NEB PNHNDL. HWVR...WITH THE SRLY
LO LVL WINDS IN WRN LAR COUNTY...PLATTE COUNTY AND THE LAR VLY...LO CLDS
ARE LKLY...ALTHO NOT AS LO AS PAST 2 MRNGS. WITH THAT IN MIND AS WELL
AS THE MOR SHALLOW MOIST LYR MOST OF THE FOG AND DRZL SHUD BE LIMITED TO
THE LAR RANGE TNGT AND ERY THU MRNG. LO CLDS SHUD BREAK UP BY MID MRNG
ON THU WITH A GOOD THREAT OF TSTMS THU AFTN AND THU NGT. WILL MAKE THE
ABV FINE TUNING CHGS TO PREV FCST...OTRW GOING FCST LOOKS FINE.
.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
WEILAND
FXUS65 KCYS 162038 wy
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
232 AM MDT THU JUN 17 1999
RADAR INDICATED LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH/WEST-CENTRAL CO SOUTH OF GJT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NM. RUC AND ETA BOTH HAVE THIS FEATURE A
BIT SOUTH...WHILE NGM AND AVN WERE NOT PICKING UP ON IT AT ALL. ETA
ALSO INDICATES WEAK JETLET PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WITH BULLSEYE
OF DIVERGENCE RIGHT ON TOP OF AREA OF SHOWERS AT 06Z. ETA MOISTURE
FIELDS ALSO SEEM TO FIT BEST WITH WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SO FOR
THESE REASONS ETA SEEMS BEST MODEL TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE...USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY WEATHER...TO FLATTEN AS
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NV PUSHES ACROSS UT DURING THE DAY. ETA HAS
WAVE OVER CO/UT BORDER AREA BY DAYS END...AND MUCH WEAKER WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE. MEANWHILE...WEAK DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE
TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CO PUSHING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY WHETHER TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS OK...BUT SAFE TO SAY...LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND
MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE AND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH SHORTWAVE...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
AFFECT ENTIRE CWFA AGAIN TODAY.
TWO SHORTWAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE PHASE TOGETHER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH NVA SETTING IN...SO NOCTURNAL SHOWERS NOT
LIKELY TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. RIDGE PUFFS BACK UP AGAIN ON
FRIDAY WITH DRYING INDICATED. AFTERNOON LI'S OF -2 POINT TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THOUGH MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO. RH
FIELD OVER EASTERN UTAH DRIER...THOUGH WILL NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.
NL
.GJT...NONE.
FXUS65 KBOU 162119 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
2 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
LATEST MODEL RUNS VERIFIED THEIR 06 UTC FORECASTS RATHER WELL...WITH
A QUICK-MOVING 500 MB VORT MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND GA. RUC/NGM/ETA FORECAST THE 500 MB
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROFF AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THE NEXT 24-HOURS...WITH ITS ATTENDING FRONT ALSO PUSHING
THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE NOW THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 00 UTC
PW AT TLH WAS 2.10 INCHES WITH DEEP MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN
FACT...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST Q-VECTOR FORCING AND
HIGHEST DEEP-LAYER RH MAY BE OCCURRING NOW. THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON
THE LATEST VAPOR/RADAR LOOPS. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM CUBA UP TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
THE CLOUDS AND APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...THOUGH THEIR MAY BE SOME CONTRIBUTION ACROSS TAYLOR AND
DIXIE COUNTIES. BY THIS EVENING THE NGM/ETA SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA. WHILE THEY DIFFER ON THE ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT
(THE ETA HAS A MORE WAVY EAST-WEST FRONT...WHILE THE NGM IS MORE
LINEAR AND NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED)...THEY BOTH AGREE IN
BRINGING VERY DRY 700-500MB MEAN RH VALUES...WHICH SHOULD
DRAMATICALLY DECREASE OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY. CURRENT ZONES AND CWF
LOOK FINE AS THEY REFLECT THESE CHANGES.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TLH 88 69 89 69 6220
PFN 86 70 87 69 5220
DHN 87 65 85 65 5200
ABY 85 67 86 66 5200
VLD 87 69 89 68 6220
FOURNIER
FXUS62 KTBW 170541 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
904 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE THE PAST HOUR.
THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS...RUC AND MESOETA...
BOTH DEPICTING AN AREA OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY MOVING S-N OVER THE
PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEP
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PULLING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND KEEP SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES
PLANNED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
.MLB...NONE.
WIMMER/TROUTMAN
FXUS62 KTAE 170038 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1110 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR OVRNGT INCLUDE TEMPS/CLDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FROST.
LATEST WV SATL LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OVR NRN QUEBEC SLOWLY PULLING EWD
IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS OVR THE WRN GREAT LAKES. YET WK VORT
SPOKE FM LOW ROTATING INTO SE ONTARIO BRINGING IN SOME MID-HI LVL
CLDS INTO FA FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 00Z RUC 295K SFC...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE ERN HALF OF UPR OVRNGT...WOULD ARGUE FOR CLDS CONTINUING TO HOLD
TOGETHER. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWING STEADY PROGRESSION OF CLDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR CONVINCING ENOUGH TO KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY MENTION OVR
ALL ZONES FOR OVRNGT...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH BREAKS UPSTREAM TO PREVENT
SOLID OVRCAST FM OCCURRING.
SLGT PUSH SWD OF SFC TROF OVR ONTARIO WILL ACT TO INCREASE NWLY GRAD
WNDS TO AROUND 5 KTS OVR FA OVRNGT. THIS ALG WILL BKN CLD CVR WILL
KEEP MINS UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABV CURRENT DWPNTS...WHICH ARE GENLY IN
UPPER 30S AT MOST STATIONS. THUS...HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF FROST
AND RAISED MINS UP TO AROUND 40 IN MOST ZONES. EXCEPTION WAS OVR
KEWEENAW WHERE TIGHTER NW WND GRAD WILL PROVIDE GREATEST
MIXING...WENT 40 TO 45 THERE.
VOSS
.MQT...NONE.
DLG
FXUS63 KGRR 170309 mi
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
BROAD SCALE SUBS IN CONTROL ACROSS FA WITH LAST WAVE FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST RUC MODEL SOUNDING INDICATING LESS LOW LEVEL RH
THAN IN PAST DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. AS A RESULT ONLY SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MOST FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO NE ACROSS EXT NE ZONES
WHERE CU STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE FROM VIS LOOP. WITH INCREASED SOLAR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT READINGS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YSTDY. ALL THIS HANDLED WELL BY ONGOING FCST AND SEE NO REASON FOR
UPDATE.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
255 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
FCST REVOLVES AROUND EXTENT OF MORNG PRECIP AND RECORD LOWS TONIGHT.
CURRENT SAT PICS AND RADAR RETURNS APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO ETA/RUC
MODEL FCST. ONLY SQUEEZING OUT A TRACE OR A HUNDRETH SO FAR AND
DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THIS TODAY. SW NEAR QUINCY IL WILL SLIDE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PART OF CWA TODAY. MODEL AND GRIDDED DATA HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE. SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASING AS MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY
NGM AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD DRY SOLUTION. STILL SOME DEBATE OF LOW
CHC POPS IN THE CMH/PRT AREA THIS MORNG ALREADY IN FCST. MAY GO WITH
JUST SPRINKLES BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. JUST MORNG
SPRINKLES IN THE WEST. ALL MODELS INDICATE DRYING THIS AFTN AND WILL
GO WITH SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SUN. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM MOS GUID.
RDG BUILDS IN TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. RECORDS CERTAINLY IN JEOPARDY WITH 51 AT CVG...47 AT CMH AND
DAY. EVEN MOS GUID FCSTG RECORD LOWS. HOW OFTEN DO YOU SEE THAT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN ZONES WHERE APPROPRIATE.
FRI LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY UNDER RDG. TEMPS SHLD REBOUND WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. WILL GO CLOSE TO MOS BUT MAY SHAVE A BIT WITH COOL START.
NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED FOR EXTENDED. SHLD SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
FRI NIGHT AND MAY TWEEK CURRENT FCST LOWS DOWN A BIT.
.ILN...NONE.
PADGETT
FXUS61 KCLE 170626 oh
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 AM CDT THU JUN 17 1999
SFC ANALYSIS TONIGHT SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM SHV TO NEAR ACT AND
MOVING SOUTH. CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT. POPS EARLY TODAY WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG
FRONT AS IT ENTERS CWA. MAY ADJUST POPS RIGHT BEFORE ZONES GO OUT
TO WATCH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LATEST RUC INDICATING BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS W ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY
LOCATED FURTHER EAST. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA...WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF NE AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO REGION. NE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL KEEP ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION CONFINED TO
IMMEDIATE COAST.
PW VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
AREA. S ZONES WILL BEGIN PD STILL NEAR 2 INCHES. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AREA AND RESULT IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE 24-48
HOUR TIME FRAME. MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE SE JUST
N OF CWA THIS PERIOD AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.
EXPECT LOW TEMPS FOR INLAND ZONES IN 60S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER DW PTS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUN.
IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG DUE TO
TEMPS IN 60S AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL.
FOR MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER AREA AND FRONT PUSHES INTO COASTAL WATERS.
33/47
.KHGX...NONE.
PRELIMS...
CLL BU 091/066 092/067 091 4(EARLY)10
IAH BU 091/067 092/068 091 311
GLS BB 086/072 087/072 087 311
FXUS64 KEPZ 170802 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC NOT HANDLING CURRENT PRECIPITATION WELL
THOUGH AVN BEST IN SRN NEW ENGLAND. CELLULAR SHOWERS NEAR KBGM HAVE
DROPPED A FEW CENTS OF PRECIP. CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS PUT
THIS ACROSS OUR SE FA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF WE WILL MEASURE THERE
SO POPS A 50/50 PROPOSITION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO DISTINCT VORTS AS
DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. BOTH TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND
THIS FITS CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER RH FORECASTS ARE NOT GREAT SO HAVE
GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER FORECAST WITH LOTS OF AC
UPSTREAM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT WITH COASTAL LOW AND UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY
WITH BEST CHANCE POPS SE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
ON FRIDAY, COASTAL MOVES AWAY TAKING MUCH OF THE MID/HI CLOUDS OUT
IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER, ETA PROFILES SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND MOS GIVES SCT-BKN WITH MOST CLOUDS IN MTNS. SO
WORDED AS PARTLY SUNNY WITH BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY SE ZONES.
SISSON
.BTV...NONE.
FXUS61 KBTV 170105 vt
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SWLY WIND. 09Z RUC SHOWS
15KT SW WIND AT 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON OVER ECFL COAST. TIMING OF
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DEPEND ON A LARGE DEGREE TO WHEN AMPLE BREAKS
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM TO CURRENT
PACKAGE.
.MLB...NONE.
PENDERGRAST/SPRATT
FXUS62 KEYW 171234 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1055 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
LATEST VSBL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD
DROPPING S OUT OF CANADA THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD THE UPR
PENINSULA...DISSIPATING AS IT DOES SO. CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
VERY WEAK AREA OF DPVA ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROFF.
ENTIRE CWA IS SKC ATTM. MODIFIED 12Z APX SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES OF
AROUND 600...LI'S OF -2 AND TT'S IN THE MID 40S AS COLD AIR ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RUC SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION WILL BE NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UPWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK AREA OF DPVA WORKING ITS WAY S THROUGH ERN
UPR AND LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. IN LIGHT OF HIGHER CAPES/INCREASED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH FOCUS
PROVIDED BY LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG MACKINAC COUNTY AND THE
LAKE HURON SHORELINE...WILL INCREASE POPS FROM SPRINKLES TO SCTD
SHRA FOR THE ABOVE OUTLINED AREAS. WILL ALSO INCREASE SPRINKLES TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN LOWER AND CHIPPEWA
COUNTY.
TEMPS LOOK IN LINE FOR NOW...WILL FRESHEN WORDING OF WIND FORECAST.
.APX...NONE.
EME
FXUS63 KMQT 170832 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
305 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
...PARTLY SUNNY TODAY/MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY...
ETA/RUC HAVE BEST SHORT TERM HANDLE ON SHTWV MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI
THIS MORNING. AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH DPAV/QVEC CONVERGENCE FROM
THAT SHTWV... NOT TO MENTION COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS/GREATEST
VERTICAL TOTALS. SAT IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES OVER
WI BEHIND THIS SHTWV. ALL MODELS SHOW K INDEX/VERTICAL TOTALS/LI
BECOMING MORE STABLE BEHIND THIS SHWTV THEN AHEAD OF IT. FOR
EXAMPLE K INDEX FALLS ON NGM AND ETA FROM LOWER 20S 06Z TO MID TEENS
BY 18Z. ETA CAPES DROP TO LESS THEN 100 J/KG DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO... BOTTOM LINE... SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS CWA TODAY.
ACTUALLY... OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE CWA IT JUST MAY BE MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING AFTER MID CLDS MOVE OUT AND BEFORE CU
DEVELOPE. WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED... JUST MAY GET SOME LK
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BUT INVERSION HEIGHT BELOW 10000 FT SO THIS
SHOULD NOT CREATE MORE THEN SOME MDT CU. OVER THE ERN PART OF THE
CWA WILL HAVE SCT SHWRS ENDING THIS MRNG THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT... HIGH PRESURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT OR BELOW MOS FCST LOWS. WHILE ON
THE SUBJECT OF TEMPS... MOS HIGHS LOOK FINE TODAY AND FRIDAY BASED
ON SEVERAL FORECAST METHODS (850 TEMPS/FRHT67 T1).
LOOKS LIKE WAA SHOWERS /TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS COMBINTION OF SRN
STREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH NRN STREAM SHTWV. ONLY REAL
QUESTION THERE IS JUST WHERE THE NRN STREAM SHTWV WILL BE... SOME OF
THE MODELS DIG IT MORE THEN OTHERS. IN ANY EVENT ENOUGH THERE TO
KEEP EXTENDED AS IS (MORE OR LESS).
ZONES SHOULD BE OUT BY 400 AM (WITHIN 15 MINTUES OF THAT ANYWAY).
.GRR...NONE.
WDM
FXUS63 KAPX 170336 mi
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
930 PM CDT WED JUN 16 1999
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC DATA...SOME DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE 300-305K THETA LAYER DUE TO RISING THETA SURFACES...DESPITE
WEAK DOWNGLIDE. BELIEVE RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTED ON BY THE RISING AIR FOR CLOUD
DECK...CURRENTLY OVER AR/TN...TO DRIFT INTO N PORTIONS OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT. RUC IS SHOWING A TRANSITION FROM THE DOMINANCE OF THE
RISING THETA SURFACES TO MORE DOWNGLIDE BY 12Z...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS
TO DECREASE TOWARD MORNING. WILL...THEREFORE...WORD PARTLY CLOUDY IN
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO
HAMPER RADIATIONAL EFFECTS...THUS HAVE UPPED MINS A BIT.
LOSS OF HEATING IN THE S HAS ALLOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
TO DIMINISH...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LINGERING FRONT MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...LEFT
SLIGHT POPS IN THERE.
.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
26
ms
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MDT THU JUN 17 1999
...UPDATES PLANNED FOR ZONES...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A THUNDERSTORM WAS HEADED
FOR SW MT EARLIER AND WAS GOING TO UPDATE NOT TO RESTRICT THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AFTERNOON. BUT CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO LIGHTNING STRIKES SO WILL
LEAVE ZONE AS IS. FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST LOOKS OK. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT STABILIZATION BEHIND
SHORTWAVE BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS IS. ONLY CHANGE TO
ZONES WILL BE TO ADD WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT PER
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST AVAILABLE MESOETA AND RUC FORECASTS. AS
FAR AS LATEST MODEL RUNS GO...MODELS DO NOT HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN ID. FEATURE EXTRAPOLATES TO CENTRAL MT BY
00Z BUT WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHORTWAVE SHOULD NOT MOVE THAT FAST.
ALSO ETA INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HAVE SPURIOUS VORTICITY CENTER OVER
SW MT AT 12Z. NOTICED LATEST RUN HAS MODERATELY STRONG VORTICITY CENTER
MOVING INTO NW MT FRI AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THIS MODEL DEVELOPS MORE
DOWNSLOPE OVER NRN E SLOPES. CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE MENTION OF WINDS
IN THE AREA. PROBABLY RELATED IN PART TO STRONGER NW MT VORTICITY CENTER
ETA RUN DEVELOPS QPF OVER WRN MT WHEREAS PREVIOUS RUN WAS DRY. LATEST
NGM DOES NOT HAVE THIS MODERATELY STRONG VORTICITY CENTER BUT LIKE THE
LATEST ETA IT DOES HAVE QPF OVER WRN MT FRIDAY. CURRENT ZONE FORECAST IS
DRY BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTERNOON PACAKGE BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION.
BLANK
GTF 421 HLN 521 HVR 321
FXUS65 KGGW 171536 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
255 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
.DISC...TRICKY FCST...NO DOUBT ABT THAT. NONE OF THE MDLS HS A GD
HANDLE ON THE AREA OF -RA THAT HAS BLOSSOMED ACRS CNTRL PA/SRN TIER
OF NYS AND NOW WRKG INTO OUR FA. NGM/ETA AND RUC DO RESOLVE A SHT WV
ACRS SERN NY BUT PCPN SHIELD WAY S OF REALITY. AVN DOES NOT EVN HV
THIS FEATURE PRESENT. ACTUALLY THERE ARE 3 AREAS OF PCPN OVR THE NE
THIS AM. ONE BTCH IN ERN OH AND WRN NY ASSCD WITH THE UA TROUGH/PVA
AND UA LW. THE RMNG BTCHS ASSCD WITH THE WKER SHT WV IN THE CNTRL
AREAS AND THE PCPN ASSCD WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZN ITSELF OVR THE CST.
THE PRBLM WITH THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT THE ENERGY IS FAIRLY
STRUNG OUT...AT LST INITIALLY. IF YOU BUY THE AVIATION...UVM NVR GETS
AS FAR N AS KALB...BUT FOR REASONS EXPLAINED ABV WL PRTY MUCH DISMISS
MDL (XCPT FANS LK 2B THE BETTER HI TEMPS TDY). MEANWHILE NGM GIVES US
NO MEASURABLE ONCE AGAIN WHILE THE ETA GIVES US A WHOOPING 0.10
INCHES.
THE PCKAGE WL BE A BLEND OF THE ETA/NGM AND FORECASTER/S INTUITION. I
BET WE DO MEASURE HERE BUT IT WON/T BE MUCH (CERTAINLY NO DROUGHT
BUSTER). BETTER CHC OF RA WB S SINCE SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
BAROCLINIC RASHLD WL EVENTUALLY EXPAND 2 CVR THAT AREA. QPF IN THIS
AREA STL WB PRBLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IN FCT
EVN DWN THERE MUCH OF THE DAY COULD BE RAFR.
WHOLE TROUGH PIVETS FRTHR E AND DRPS SWD WITH TIME. PVA CTR MVS OVR
SRN FA TON THEN NVA REPLCS PVA TOM. DRIER AIR SHLD BEGIN 2 SLIP IN.
WITH COLD AIR AT H5...WL KP A SML POP OVR THE NWRN MTNS AND CHC OF
SPRNKLS W OF KALB. NEW HIGH FM SRN CAN LKS 2 GIVE US OUR 4TH
COMPLETELY RAFR WKND OF THE SUMMER SEASON. TEMPS WL MODERATE WITH
TIME.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE WE STL COULD NOT CRCK 70 YSTDY AND TDY WE WL HV
LTL IF ANY SUNSHINE. EVN WITHOUT RAFL TEMPS SHLD STY IN THE 60S SO
AGAIN INCLINED 2 GO A CAT BELO FWC VALUES. WL THEN THEN GO CLS RMNG
PDS.
WRKZFP AVBL. IT IS SUBJECT TO AT LST MINOR CHANGES BARRING WX EVNTS
OF THE NXT HR. ZONES SHLD LAUNCH WELL BFR 4AM. BYE!
.ALY...NONE.
HWJIV
FXUS61 KBUF 170624 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
915 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA INDICATED WEAK S/W TO PUSH NE ACROSS FA THIS
AFTN. WITH MOISTURE LADEN ATM AND STATIONARY FRNT IN THE
VCNTY...THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. WITH FRNT
ALIGNED ALONG ENTIRE FA COASTLINE AND A DIRECT WATER VAPOR FEED FROM
THE TROPICS...BREAKS IN THE CLDS WILL BE HARD-PRESSED. THE MORE
POTENT S/W FROM THE W WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
ERLY FRI GIVING THE FA ADDITIONAL UVVS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY TO
OCCUR...AS MENTIONED BY MID-SHIFT. IN ALL DONT SEE A NEED TO CHANGE
AFTN POPS OR CLD CONDITIONS.
TEMPS...ABUNDANT INSOLATION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
FA THIS AFTN AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY. THERE4 CURRNT FCSTD TEMPS ARE
IN THE BALL PARK AND WILL ONLY TWEAK IF NEEDED BASED ON 10 AM SAT
TRENDS AND LATEST READINGS.
CWF...WILL TWEAK WND DIR TO SE-S NORTHERN PORTIONS AND S-SW FOR
SUTHERN PORTIONS...BASED ON LATEST OBS...MSAS OUTPUT AND POSITION OF
THE FRONT.
.ILM...NONE.
DCH
FXUS62 KILM 170658 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1042 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
QUESTION FOR TODAY IS AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND CONVECTION. 12Z UPR AIR
CHARTS SHOW H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
12Z RUC OR 03Z ETA INITIALIZED. THESE MDLS DO MOVE LOBE OF VORTICITY
THRU THE CWFA...ETA QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE RUC...BOTH MOVE COLD
POOL FARTHER NORTH. BOTH HAVE AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET. 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW NRN AND ERN
SECTIONS TO BE MOST UNSTABLE. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOSITURE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHORT WAVE COLD POOL FARTHER SOUTH...CHC TSRA
IN FCST LOOKS GOOD. LOW WET BULB ZEROS INDICATE POSSIBLITY THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG EVEN SVR...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL IS LIMITED.
CLOUDS BEGAN TO BREAK UP BUT HEATING WILL CAUSE SOME OF THOSE AREAS TO
FILL IN. TEMPS LOOK OK BUT WILL WATCH FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES.
.GSP...NONE.
RWH
FXUS62 KCAE 171300 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
900 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
12Z SFC ANAL SHOWS CDFNT ALG CSTL AREA WITH SFC LOW OVR S CNTRL GA. RUC
AND MESO ETA CONT TO SLOWLY DRY ATMOS OUT TDA AS NVA AXIS MOVS INTO
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. DEWPTS IN MID 60S WL DROP INTO LWR 60S AS DRYG
PROGRESSES. SATPIX SHOW CLRG OVR UPSTATE WITH BINOVC OVR CNTRL GA AND
SRN SC. XPCT SUN TO BGN BRKG THRU ARND NOON OVR TO GV SM HEATG. LI'S WL
DROP TO -2 OVR CWA SO CANT RULE OUT CHC OF A SHWR. APCHG S/WV FM OH/TN
VLY WL NOT BRING PVA INTO CWA UNTIL THIS EVE/ERY TNGT BUT MDLS CONT DRYG
OF ATMOS THRU THIS PD. WL KP 30% POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND KP CURRENT TEMP
FCST.
.CAE...NONE.
SJN
FXUS62 KCAE 171209 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
RUC HAD SHRTWV COMING THRU OH VLY THIS AFTN. THIS SHUD BE OUR LAST
SHOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYS. EXPECT SHRA MAY REDELEVOP/ADVECT INTO
CWA FM THE W THIS AFTN. EVEN WITH COOLER AIR...-20 AT KILN AT 5H...
COMING IN ALOFT AND AREA OF DRYING COMING INTO KY/TN ON WV LOOP...
MODIFIED SOUNDIGNS WERE SHOWED SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSRA. WITH BREAKS
IN WRN EDGE OF CLD COVER TEMPS SHUD RISE TO ARND 70. THEREFORE CAPES
SHUD BE HIGHER AS THAT VORT CENTER MOVES ACRS THE AREAS THAT GET THE
HEATING. WL RAISE HIGH TEMPS A CAT IN GREENBRIER VALLEY. NO CHANGES
TO REST OF FCST.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
AMS
FXUS61 KAKQ 171331 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
930 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
DSCN:
APPEARS ETA HAS BEST HANDLE ON CRNT SYSTM (PSN & PCPN WISE) SO
WILL LEAN TOWARD IT. EVEN RUC TAKES VORT MAX OFFSHORE THIS AFTRN.
ONLY PLACES LI'S DROP BLO ZERO IS ACROSS NC. RADAR SHWNG WK ECHOES
ACROSS RGN AS VORT MAX MOVS NE...SO WILL KEEP PRDS OF RAIN GOING
THIS AFTRN...BUT TAKE OUT THE "HVY AT TIMES" PART. AM NOT IMPRESSED
WITH CONVECTION CHCS IN STABLE AIRMASS...BUT WILL KEEP PSBLTY OF
ELVTD TSRA IVOF ALBEMARLE SND WHERE LI'I DROP TO ARND ZERO. HVYST
PCPN STAYS S OF FA...MAINLY ALONG FRNTL BNDRY LCTD FROM ILM-HAT.
CVRGE OF RAIN MAY DMNSH BY RUSH HR DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE ON BACK
SIDE OF DEPARTING VORT.
TMPS WON'T RISE MUCH FROM CRNT LVLS...GNRLY ARND 70.
CWF...SEAS ABV 5 FT SO WILL KEEP FLAGS FLYING ON CSTL WTRS.
.AKQ...SCA FOR SEAS ON CSTL WATERS FENWICK ISL S TO CURRITUCK BCH
LIGHT.
44
FXUS61 KAKQ 170742 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1005 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN THOROUGHLY DISSAPOINTING THIS MORNING. BEST
LIFT/FORCING OVR MTN AREAS IS AIDED BY SOME UPSLOPE. WE ARE STILL
HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE. THE 03Z MESOETA AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 12Z
RUC SHOW THE STEADIER RAIN OVR WRN AREAS MOVING EWD THIS AFTERNOON
SO WILL CONTINUE W/HIGH POPS.
SINCE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND SCT E OF THE MTNS...TEMPS HAVE CREEPED
UP TO FCSTD LVLS. WL ADJUST TEMPS UP A BIT IN SOME AREAS.
NO 2ND OR 3RD PERIOD CHGS.
.LWX...NONE.
WALSTON
FXUS61 KLWX 170656 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1135 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS S CENTRAL
LOWER MI AND TO LOWER FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATL LOOP SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF S
CENTRAL LOWER MI BUT LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT WEST OF U.S. HWY 131 AND
NORTH OF GRR AND AMN. NRLY SFC WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS CWA.
12Z RUC SHOWS VORT MAX ROTATING SE AWAY FRM LWR MI THIS AFTN...WITH
WEAK SUBSIDENCE/NVA FOR OUR CWA. EVEN WITH SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUAL
DECREASE IN LOW-LVL RH VALUES THIS AFTN...VRY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP ATM UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH CU DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE TAKING LONGER
THAN EXPECTED LATE THIS MORN...STILL EXPECT BKN CU FIELD TO FORM OVR
MOST OF CWA EAST OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS THIS AFTN. TOTAL TOTALS IN THE
MID 40S AND CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 200-400 J/KG POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ERN HALF CWA. BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN FCST AS POPS WOULD BE 10-20 PCT RANGE.
FEEL LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN AS GRADIENT SLACKENS A
BIT...THEREFORE KEPT SKIES MO/SUNNY LAKE COUNTIES. TEMPS LOWERED A
CATEGORY FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LITTLE WAA EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 00Z. H85
TEMPS FCST BY RUC TO REACH AROUND 4C BY LATE AFTN. ACCORDING TO
LOCAL TEMP SCHEME...THIS WOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO LOWER-MID 60S.
STRONG JUNE SS LIKELY TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THIS THOUGH...SO JUST
LOWERED FCST MAX A FEW DEGREES.
FCST UPDATE OUT BY 11:40 AM EDT.
.GRR...NONE.
KWG
FXUS63 KAPX 171458 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 PM CDT THU JUN 17 1999
CWA ENJOYING EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVR MN AND IA THIS AFTN...BUT
LOW LVL RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENING ACRS SD CWA. STLT LOOK ON LARGE
SCALE SHOWS NARROW HIGH LAT BLOCKING RIDGE THRU CANADA...AND STG
SYSTEM PLOWING THRU CNTRL ROCKIES E OF KSLC. THIS UPSTREAM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT CWA LT TNGT THRU ERLY SAT IS OVR SWRN WY...AND APPEARS ON
STLT AS A MIGHT BIT STGR THAN INITIALIZED IN MDLS...ALTHOUGH NOT
TERRIBLY COOL IN MID LVLS. PCPN CHC AS THE WAVE TRAVERSES CWA IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AFTN PACKAGE.
MOST IS NOT ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...
LEAVING CI...AND THE NEXT INCREASE IN CLOUDS COMING FM WRN SYSTEM.
MIXING IS TAKING ITS TOLL ALREADY...SO MAY CLEAN UP CLEARING WORDING
THIS EVNG IF TREND CONTINUES. REST OF CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS HOW
FAR EWRD ANY TSRA WL GET. SOLID GUIDANCE IS HARD TO COME BY TDA...
AS AVN WASHES OUT VORT...NGM IS REALLY SLOW...ETA SEEMS OK BUT TOO
MOIST IN LOW LEVELS...IF NOT SLOW ALSO. OVERALL...BLEND OF SLNS AVN
TIMING/ETA STRENGTH/NGM MSTR WOULD BE CLOSER.
LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40+ KTS ON ETA...BUT...HAVE YET TO SEE THE INCREASE
IN MRR PROF TO APPROACH 00Z VALUES...BUT STILL TIME...AND RUC AGREES.
THIS SHIFTS TO SCNTRL SD BY 12Z...AND MAY SPUR LTL HIGH BASED ACTION
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PROGGED STM MTN WOULD BE TO
SSE...BASED ON 850-300HPA THICKNESS. REALLY IS NO LOW LEVEL SUPPORT
TO ANY PCPN THRU FCST PERIOD. ALL MDLS HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THE BEST
CONVECTIVE AIR WL REMAIN W OF CWA...EVEN AS LLJ SHIFTS GRADUALLY
EWRD TOWARD MN AND IA CWA BY 00Z SAT. ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
THAT WAVE WILL BE SHEARED SOMEWHAT BY NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
HAVE EFFICIENT COUPLING OF LIFT FORCING...ESPLY BY LT FRI AFTN AND
NIGHT. MSTR IS LIMITING FACTOR...BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD EASILY
OVERCOME. WHILE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY
WIDESPREAD...ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO PSBL MCS
DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT OVER ERN CWA. FOR NOW...HIGH CHC POPS AND
WAIT AND SEE.
DESPITE MDL OBJECTION...CANNOT SEE WHAT AT LEAST SOME SORT OF LOW
LVL BOUNDARY WL PROGRESS SWRD BEHIND WAVE LTR FRI NGT INTO SAT...
PERHAPS EVEN ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY BRING WINDS ARND TO NE OR E.
NEVERTHELESS...MUCH OF CWA IN WAKE OF WAVE WITH SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
FOR SAT...BUT LIFT AND EXPECTED BOUNDARY TO HANG UP ACRS S...AND
WL KEEP MORE CLDS AND CHC SHRA/TSRA THERE.
THE EXTENDED FCST IS LTL MORE CLOUDED TDA...WITH MORE DISAGREEMENT IN
GUIDANCE. MRF CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO DAYS PAST...BUT
NOW HOLDS BOUNDARY BACK TO W INTO DAY 5. REMAINING GUIDANCE EVEN
SLOWER...AND GREAT DISPARITY IN FLOW PATTERN AS WELL. FEEL MRF IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE IN OBLITERATING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK...TOO STG WITH
RIDGE BUILDING EWRD THRU PLAINS...ALL RESULTING FM LACK OF SPLITTING
NW US TROUGH. WL SIDE MORE WITH ECMWF/CAN SPECTRAL IN THIS REGARD...
YET LKLY NOT TO THE DEGREE. EXPECT FIRST ROUND TO TSRA TO COMMENCE
ON SUN EVNG/NIGHT AS MCS DEVELOPS ALG EDGE OF DVLP CAP IN VICINITY
OF LLJ. REMAINDER OF PERIOD SHOULD BE FILLED WITH NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AS WELL...THEN LESS NIGHT PREFERENTIAL BY TUE AS MAIN
WAVE FLATTENS RIDGE AND PUSHES LO LVL BOUNDARY ACRS SD PLAINS. WL
HAVE TO PLAY TMPS ON WM SIDE OF NORMAL.
.FSD...NONE
CHAPMAN
FXUS63 KABR 171933 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1018 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
WATER VAPOR AND VISUAL SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES WORKING IN AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH. 00Z
ETA SHOWS 1000-500 MB MEAN RH DROPS OFF QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK SMALL WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO UPDATED RUC TO USE UNFORTUNATELY. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO
KEEP A 20 PERCENT POP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST TN...AND REDUCED POP TO 30 PERCENT FOR SW VA. REMOVED POPS
ELSEWHERE. WENT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SE TN AND PARTLY SUNNY
ELSEWHERE. LEFT TEMPS ALONE THROUGHOUT CWA.
AUSTIN
FXUS74 KMEG 170728 tn