PTS: 9051C26.1.0 Title: Understanding and Forecasting the Response of Polar Bear Populations to a Rapidly Diminishing Sea Ice Environment Keywords:Marine Mammals, Polar Bears, Pacific Walrus, Sea Ice, Alaska, Subsistence, Alaska Natives, Population Dynamics, Status and Trends Leaders: * Amstrup, Steven C., samstrup@usgs.gov, 907-786-7111, FAX 907-786-7401, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508-4626 * Douglas, David C., ddouglas@usgs.gov, 907-364-1576, FAX 907-364-1540, 3100 National Park Road, Juneau, AK 99801 * Durner, George M., gdurner@usgs.gov, 907-786-7082, FAX 907-786-7150, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508-4626 Accomplishments: In late 2006 we published an open-file report on the status of the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population. This report was used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to inform their decision about listing the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.
In 2007, we produced 9 administrative reports presenting findings on analyses conducted to provide the Secretary of the Interior with information on future status of polar bears worldwide. The purpose of these reports was to inform decisionmaking on whether or not to list the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. Communication Plan: Information developed in this task will be communicated to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Minerals Management Service, and other interested parties including the general public, throughout the duration of the task.
Publication in Peer-review journals
Presentation and posters at scientific meetings
Technical reports
Served on the web
Highlights
Project Status Reports Highlights and Key Findings: Here we report the results from a preliminary analysis of the 2001-2006 capture-recapture data.
*The estimates from the combined Alaskan and Canadian data for 2001-2006 were just under 1500. This is lower than the earlier estimates for all SBS data which were around 1800 or even higher. This comparison alone may suggest recent population declines. The 2001-2006 capture-recapture study was designed to collect consistent, high quality data and to make the analysis as straightforward as possible. The success of the 2001-2006 study design is reflected in the smooth trends in numbers revealed by the preliminary analysis. The final SBS population analysis to be completed early 2007. Information described here is provided as a progress report of ongoing research. This includes unanalyzed data and preliminary interpretations. Data and interpretations presented herein should not be used outside the context of this report and without expressed consent of the authors and USGS.
*In recognition of our statistical and modelling expertise, the ASC polar bear project was approached by the Canadian Wildlife Service to analyze their data and compute a new population estimate for polar bears in Western Hudson Bay (WHB). This WHB population has been the subject of the most consistent and intense biological study of any population. Those studies have generated the best population data available probably for any large mammal. USGS is drafting a manuscript describing it for the Journal of Wildlife Management which will go through USGS¿ rigorous peer review process as well as that of this international journal. Pending results of this review process, project scientists hypothesize that results show a chronic decline in the numbers of this population since the time of the last survey (1996).
*We began a multi-year program to determine the utility of remotely identifying bears using RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) ear tags. Using the latest in tools and techniques, we developed a new animal ID system with a proven read-range of over 1800 feet, while still being small enough and light enough to be carried by animals. Objectives: Program: Wildlife and Terrestrial Resources Program Goal #1) Develop tools such as predictive models, decision support, and expert systems for science-based management of wildlife and plant populations and their habitats, and Goal #3) Evaluate the status of plant and animal species at risk and provide scientific guidance for their conservation and management.
Program: Status and Trends Goal #1) Measure and report the condition of the Nation¿s biological resources. The specific objective of this task is to enhance our understanding of polar bear ecology and biology with an emphasis on population ecology. Statement of Problem: Polar bears occur in the ice-covered portions of the Arctic Ocean and neighboring seas. Adjacent to the Alaska coast, polar bears occur in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Polar bears are harvested by Alaska Natives for food and cultural purposes. Under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is responsible for the management of polar bear populations. MMS and BLM also have management concerns in Alaska regarding OCS and lnd lease activities. Because polar bears are completely dependent on sea ice, they are a critical indicator of global warming and its effects in the Arctic. In addition to rapid climate warming, concerns for polar bear populations include the concentration of contaminants in the north due to atmospheric deposition pattern, disease, and increasing human activities in their terrestrial and nearshore marine habitats. Current information on polar bear population dynamics and ecology is necessary to inform management decisions- a critical need at time when USFWS is considering listing this species. 2006 Statement of Work: Polar bears occur in the ice-covered portions of the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas adjacent to Alaska. Their dependence upon drifting ice makes polar bears an important indicator of global warming and its effects in the Arctic. Ongoing studies at the ASC-BSO are designed to explain the movements and activities of polar bears, by investigating interactions between bears, their principal prey, ringed seals, and the sea ice that supports both of them. We are studying changes in movements and distribution patterns of polar bears and learning how understanding those patterns may help address management issues. We are also estimating population size and refining our ability to detect and project trends in numbers of polar bears. Finally, to enhance our ability to protect female bears and their cubs from human disturbances, we are mapping maternal denning habitat and investigating ways to detect bears in dens, even when they are buried deep under the snow. 2007 Progress: Work in FY2007 on the polar bear project has been substantially affected by the January 9, 2007 decision of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to propose the polar bear for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. The USGS has developed a Statement of Work to address specific information needs of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for its listing decision. This work is described separately in a new project, see Project Number 9050CZM, USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision. There is considerable overlap between planned research activities of the polar bear project and the project to support the listing decision. 2007 Statement of Work: 2007 marks the completion of a six year mark and recapture study that will result in the best ever estimate of polar bear population size for the Southern Beaufort Sea. The ASC polar bear research program will continue monitoring efforts in the SBS along with GPS collar deployments in support of ongoing global climate change work, den disturbance research, den habitat mapping of NPRA, RFID tag development, and RSF habitat modeling for the SBS. Looking towards the next five years, we propose a new paradigm to focus our research efforts. The environments of polar bears are changing. USGS research actvities examining how polar bears respond to these changes will be critical to our understanding and for adapting new science to manage the potential climatic outcomes. If we have learned anything from past wildlife studies, we should have learned that the most valuable datasets are those that are long term enough to give us firm baselines and an understanding of how things change over time. It is essential that USGS make continued monitoring of polar bear populations where we have good baselines and long data strings our highest priority. The more fully we understand what is happening in these populations, the better we can extrapolate that information towards understanding dynamics in other populations. A new model to consider would identify different "ecoregions" throughout the circumpolar where ongoing changes may be experienced differently and at different rates and to try to maintain continuity in at least one example of each region. We have relatively long term data sets in a southern population where the ice melts entirely in summer (Western Hudson Bay), in a higher latitude population (Southern Beaufort Sea), and in a high arctic pelagic population (Svalbard). The next priority would be to look at populations, such as the Chukchi Sea, that will allow extrapolations from the intensively studied populations.
We are now learning from the long term studies in Western Hudson Bay what kinds of changes in sex and age composition, vital rates, and body condition we can expect when a warming environment lowers carrying capacity. Preliminary analysis of our current research in Alaska may be indicating some of these same changes in the Beaufort Sea as well. The Southern Beaufort is a location where we have the long term base from which to extrapolate. Shorter term "snapshots" of the sex and age composition of other populations for which we do not have a baseline could be compared to the populations in which we do. In some areas snapshots will be taken with capture exercises-and we have some new ways to make those exercises more efficient. We would also collect blood and other tissues to monitor health parameters, contaminants, and disease. Alaska is a perfect opportunity to test this new paradigm. We have 2 populations- the Chukchi (shared with Russia) and the Southern Beaufort Sea (shared with Canada). We know little about what is occurring with polar bears in the Chukchi and it is unlikely we will ever have the funding our logistic network necessary to obtain good estimates of population size. However, if we choose our data collection carefully as we begin new work in the Chukchi, and if we continue to monitor polar bears the Beaufort, we will be able to draw conclusions about the status and trends of the Chukchi by making careful comparisons to the Beaufort. 2008 Statement of Work: The polar bear research program in FY2008 will focus on (1)continuation of mark-recapture operations in the Southern Beaufort Sea, (2) beginning of mark-recapture operations in the Chukchi Sea, (3) den habitat mapping in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, and publication of findings from ongoing work. Considerable effort will continue to be devoted to followup writing and briefings related to the science products prepared for the FWS in the last half of FY2007 (see 2009 Statement of Work: In FY2009, the polar bear research program will continue field data collection and analytical projects focused on enhancing the forecasting models developed in 2007 to support Department of Interior Endangered Species Act decision-making on the polar bear. We will (1)continue of mark-recapture operations in the Southern Beaufort Sea,(2) conduct the 2nd year of operations in the Chukchi Sea, in collaboration with the FWS, and (3) collaborate in the NSF-funded study comparing condition of bears summering on land to condition of bears remaining on the pack ice. With support from the BLM, we anticipate completing the ground-truthing for a denning habitat map of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. The IUCN Polar Bear Specialists' Group will meet in June 2009 in Denmark, and preparation for this meeting will be a key activity for this year.
We will also develop study plans that would carry out a major new initiative on polar bear research, pursuant to the Polar Bear Action Plan, currently being developed at the department level, subject to new funding. Product: Report Delivered Amstrup, S.C., G.M. Durner, T.L. McDonald, and W.R. Johnson. 2006. Estimating Potential Effects of Hypothetical Oil Spills on Polar Bears. Final Report to MMS, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, 64 pp. Product: Report Delivered Durner, G. M., D. C. Douglas, R. M. Nielson, and S. C. Amstrup. 2006. A model for autumn pelagic distribution of adult female polar bears in the Chukchi Seas, 1987-1994. US Geological Survey Alaska Science Center, Contract Completion Report 70181-5-C240. Product: Report Delivered Durner, G. M., S. C. Amstrup, R. Neilson, and T. McDonald. 2004. The use of sea ice habitat by female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage. OCS Study, MMS 2004-014. Product: Report Delivered Durner, G., S. Amstrup, T. McDonald, C. Smith, and W. Johnson. 2001.Predicting the numbers of polar bears impacted by oil spills. Proceedings of the Marine Mammals Conference. Product: Report Delivered Regehr, E. V., S. C. Amstrup, and I. Stirling. 2006. Polar bear population status in the southern Beaufort Sea. USGS Alaska Science Center, Open-File Report 1337. Product: Report Delivered Smith, T. S., S. Partridge, S. Amstrup, and S. Schliebe. 2005. Den site activity patterns of northern Alaska polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Unpublished report. 75 pp. + 11 tables and 17 figures. Product: Report Delivered York, G., S. C. Amstrup, and K. Simac. 2004. Using Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR) imagery to detect polar bear maternal dens. Operations Manual. Study 2004-062 prepared for Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS Region, Anchorage. Product: Websites Delivered 2007, Polar Bear Research, USGS Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C. 2002. Polar Bears. Pages 65-70 in D.C. Douglas, P.E. Reynolds, and E.B. Rhode, (eds.), Arctic Refuge Coastal Plain Terrestrial Wildlife Research Summaries. Biological Science Report USGS/BRD/BSR-2002-0001. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., G. M. Durner, A. S. Fischbach, G. Weston York, K. S. Simac, T. S. Smith, S. T. Partridge, and D. Douglas. 2003. Polar Bear Research in the Beaufort Sea. Proceedings of the Canadian Polar Bear Technical Commitee. February 2003, Edmonton, Alberta. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., G. M. Durner, A. S. Fischbach, K. Simac, and G. Weston-York. 2002. Polar bear research in the Beaufort Sea. Proceedings of the thirteenth meeting of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialists. Nuuk, Greenland, July 2002. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., G. M. Durner, E. Regehr, G. Weston York, K. S. Simac, T. S. Smith, S. T. Partridge, and D. Douglas. 2004. Polar Bear Research in the Beaufort Sea. Proceedings of the Canadian Polar Bear Technical Commitee. February 2004, Winnipeg, Manitoba. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., G. M. Durner, E. Regehr, G. Weston York, K. S. Simac, T. S. Smith, S. T. Partridge, and D. Douglas. 2005. Polar Bear Research in the Beaufort Sea. Proceedings of the Canadian Polar Bear Technical Commitee. February 2005, Edmonton, Alberta. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., G. M. Durner, I. Stirling, and T. L. McDonald. 2005. Allocating harvests among polar bear stocks in the Beaufort Sea. Arctic 58(3):247-259 Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., G. M. Durner, T. L. McDonald, D. M. Mulcahy, and G. W. Garner. 2001. Comparing movement patterns of satellite-tagged male and female polar bears. Canadian Journal of Zoology 79:2147-2158. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., G. Weston-York, T. L. McDonald, R. Nielsen, K. Simac, and G. M. Durner. 2003. Detecting denning polar bears with forward looking infra-red imagery (FLIR). Page 59 in Proceedings of the Ninth MMS Information Transfer Meeting. OCS Study MMS 2003-042. 118 pp. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., G. York, T. L. McDonald, R. Nielson, and K. Simac. 2004. Detecting denning polar bears with Forward-Looking Infrared (FLIR) imagery. BioScience 54:337-344. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., T. L. McDonald, and G. M. Durner. 2004. Using satellite radiotelemetry data to delineate and manage wildlife populations. Wildlife Society Bulletin 32(3):661-679. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. C., T. L. McDonald, and I. Stirling. 2001. Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 6:221-234. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S. et al. 2006. The Handbook of Capture Recapture. This volume, released by Princeton University Press in autumn 2005, is designed to bridge the gap in understanding of complex capture recapture modeling between field biologists and statisticians. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S.C. 2003. Polar bear, Ursus maritimus. In G.A. Feldhamer, B.C. Thompson, and J.A. Chapman, eds. Wild mammals of North America: biology, management, and conservation. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. pp. 000-000. In press. Product: Delivered Amstrup, S.C. 2006. Future for polar bears in a declining sea ice environment: What do we know? International Bear News 15(4):8-11. Product: Delivered Bentzen, T. W., E. H. Follmann, S. C. Amstrup, G. S. York, M. J. Wooller, and T. M. O¿Hara. 2007. Variation in winter diet of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears inferred from stable isotope analysis. Canadian Journal of Zoology 85:596-608 Product: Delivered Bentzen, T.W., E.H. Follmann, S.C. Amstrup, G.S. York, M.J. Wooller, D.C.G. Muir, and T.M. O'Hara. 2008. Dietary biomagnification of organochlorine contaminants in Alaskan polar bears. Canadian Journal of Zoology 86:177-191. Product: Delivered Brower, C. D., A. Carpenter, M. L. Branigan, W. Calvert, T. Evans, A. S. Fischbach, J. A. Nagy, S. Schliebe, and I. Stirling. 2002. The polar bear management agreement for the southern Beaufort Sea: An evaluation of the first ten years of a unique conservation agreement. Arctic 55(4):362-372. Product: Delivered Cronin, M.A., S.C. Amstrup, and K.T. Scribner. 2006. Microsatellite DNA and mitochondrial DNA variation in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, Alaska. Canadian Journal of Zoology 84(5):655-660. Product: Delivered Durner, G. M., S. C. Amstrup, G. York, E. Regehr, K. Simac, T. S. Smith, S. T. Partridge, T. Bentzen, K. Amstrup, and D. Douglas. 2006. Polar bear research in Alaska. Proceedings of the 14th Working Meeting, IUCN Polar Bear Specialists Group, Seattle, WA. Product: Delivered Durner, G. M., S. C. Amstrup, R. Nielsen, and T. L. McDonald. 2004. Using discrete choice modeling to generate resource selection functions for female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Pages 107 - 120 in S. Huzurbazar, (ed.) Resource Selection Methods and Applications, Proceedings of the 1st Conference on Resource Selection Modeling, January 2003, Laramie, Wyoming. Product: Delivered Durner, G. M., S. C. Amstrup, and K. J. Ambrosius. 2001. Remote identification of polar bear maternal den habitat in northern Alaska. Arctic 54:115-121. Product: Delivered Durner, G.M., S. C. Amstrup, and A. S. Fischbach. 2003. Habitat characteristics of polar bear terrestrial maternal den sites in northern Alaska. Arctic 56(1):55-62. Product: Delivered Durner, G.M., S.C. Amstrup, G.S. York, E.V. Regehr, K.S. Simac, T.S. Smith, S.T. Partridge, T.W. Bentzen, K.S. Amstrup, and D.C. Douglas. 2005. Report on research progress in Alaska. In Proceedings of the 15th Annual Meeting of the Joint Commissioners and Technical Advisors of the Inuvialiut Game Council and North Slope Borough. Product: Delivered Durner, G.M., S.C. Amstrup, and K.J. Ambrosius. 2006. Polar bear maternal den habitat in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska. Arctic 59:31-36. Product: Delivered Evans, T. J., A. S. Fischbach, S. Schliebe, B. Manly, S. B. Kalxdorff, and G. W. York. 2003. Polar bear aerial survey in the eastern Chukchi Sea: A pilot study. Arctic 56(4):359-366. Product: Delivered Fischbach, A.S., S.C. Amstrup, and D.C. Douglas. In Press. Landward and eastward shift of Alaskan polar bear denning associated with recent sea ice changes. Polar Biology. 30(11):1395-1405 Product: Delivered Kern, J. W., T. L. McDonald, S. C. Amstrup, G. M. Durner, and W. P. Ericson. 2003. Using the bootstrap and fast Fourier transfrom to estimate confidence intervals of 2D kernel densities. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 10(4):405-418. Product: Delivered Kucklick, J. R., W. D. J. Struntz, P. R. Becker, G. W. York, T. M. O'Hara, and J. E. Bohonowych. 2002. Persistent organochlorine pollutants in ringed seals and polar bears collected from northern Alaska. The Science of the Total Environment 287(1-2):45-59. Product: Delivered Manly, B.F.J., S.C. Amstrup, and T.L. McDonald. 2005. Capture-recapture methods in practice. Pages 266-275 in S.C. Amstrup, T.L. McDonald, and B.F.J. Manly (Ed.). Handbook of Capture-Recapture Analysis. Princeton University Press, NJ, 296 pp. Product: Delivered Manly, B.F.J., T.L. McDonald, and S.C. Amstrup. 2005. Introduction to the handbook. Pages 1-21 in S.C. Amstrup, T.L. McDonald, and B.F.J. Manly (Ed.). Handbook of Capture-Recapture Analysis. Princeton University Press, NJ, 296 pp. Product: Delivered McDonald, T. L., S. C. Amstrup, and B. F. J. Manly. 2003. Tag loss can bias Jolly-Seber capture-recapture estimates. Wildlife Society Bulletin 31(3):814-822. Product: Delivered McDonald, T.L. and S. C. Amstrup. 2001. Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 6:206-220. Product: Delivered McDonald, T.L., S.C. Amstrup, E.V. Regehr, and B.F.J. Manly. 2005. Examples. Pages 196-265 in S.C. Amstrup, T.L. McDonald, and B.F.J. Manly (Ed.). Handbook of Capture-Recapture Analysis. Princeton University Press, NJ, 296 pp. Product: Delivered Rah, H., B. B. Chomel, E. H. Follman, R. W. Kasten, C. H. Hew, T. B. Farver, G. W. Garner, and S. C. Amstrup. 2005. Serosurvey of selected zoonotic agents in polar bears (Ursus maritimus). The Veterinary Record 156(1):7-13. Product: Delivered Regehr, E.V., S.C. Amstrup, N.J. Lunn, and I. Stirling. 2007. Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size for polar bears in western Hudson Bay. Journal of Wildlife Management 71(8):2673-2683. Product: Delivered S. C.Amstrup, I. Stirling, T. S. Smith, C. Perham and G. W. Thiemann. 2006. Recent observations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Polar Biology 29(11):997-1002 Product: Delivered Schliebe, S. L., J. W. Bridges, T. J. Evans, S. B. Kalxdorff, A. S. Fischbach, and L.J. Lierheimer. 2002. Polar bear management in Alaska 1997-2000. Pages 89-108 in N. J. Lunn, S. Schliebe, and E. W. Born, (ed.), Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 13th Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group, 23-28 June 2001, Nuuk, Greenland. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 26. Product: Delivered Smith, T.S., S.T. Partridge, S.C. Amstrup, and S. Schliebe. 2007. Post-den emergence behavior of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in northern Alaska. Arctic 60(2):187-194. Product: Director's Approval Amstrup, S.C., B.G. Marcot, and D.C. Douglas. , 2008, A Bayesian network modeling approach to forecasting the 21st century world-wide status of polar bears. In, Arctic sea ice decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications. American Geophysical Union Book Series., Product: Director's Approval 106. Durner, G.M, D.C. Douglas, R.M. Nielson, S.C. Amstrup, T.L. McDonald, I. Stirling, M. Mauritzen, E.W. Born, Ø. Wiig, E. DeWeaver, M.C. Serreze, S.E. Belikov, M.M. Holland, J. Maslanik, J. Aars, D.A. Baily, and A.E. Derocher., 2008, Predicting the future distribution of polar bear habitat in the polar basin from resource selection functions applied to 21st century general circulation model projections of sea ice, Ecological Monographs Product: Director's Approval Regehr, E.V., C.M. Hunter, H. Caswell, S.C. Amstrup, and I. Stirling., 2008, Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice., Product: Planned 2009, Delineating polar bear maternal den habitat through interpretation of Interferometric Synthetic Aperature Radar data (IFSAR) in the National Petroleum Reserve ¿ Alaska (NPR-A), Product: Planned Manly, B. F., T. L. McDonald, S. C. Amstrup, and E. V. Regehr, 2003, Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age, BioScience Product: Planned Amstrup, 2008, Estimating Potential Risks from Hypothetical Oil Spills to Dispersed Marine Wildlife, Product: Planned 2008, Frequency of long distance swimming by polar bears relative to summer ice melt in the Beaufort Sea, Product: Planned Amstrup, 2009, How did polar bears survive the last interglacial period and the Holocene thermal maximum?,
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