FXUS04 KWBC 051810 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 209 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 06/0000 UTC THRU JUN 07/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1.... NO MAJOR DISAGRMNTS MASS FIELD WISE ACRS THE LOWER 48 ON DAY 1. NWRN U.S... THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG VORT OVR THE NERN PAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURG DAY 1. HOWEVER...SEVERAL WELL DEFINED VORTS EXPECTED TO ROTATE ARND THIS CNTR AND INTO THE PAC NW...NRN INTERMT REGION AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MEAN VORTEX PSN...ONSHORE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WL BE MAINTAINED OVR THE PAC NW DURG DAY 1...SUPPORTING MDT TO HVY PCPN IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF WA/OR..NRN ID AND NWRN MT. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE LEAD WELL DEFINED VORT ROTATING INLAND FROM THE NERN PAC VORTEX SHOULD SUPPORT FRONTAL BAND PCPN MOVG EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WL BE STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S./CAN BORDER..WITH THE BULK OF PCPN POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY FALLING ACRS ALBERTA/SASK. GTLKS...SSWWD THRU THE MS VALLEY... SIMILAR TO PREV RUNS...THERE CONTS TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN THE MULTI-STREAM WNWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE GTLKS THRU THE MS VALLEY. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THESE STREAMS...WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WL BE ACTIVE CONVECTION...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH WARM SEASON CONVECTION IN WNWLY FLOW...AND THE GFS' PROPENSITY FOR GRID SCALE CONVECTION PROBLEMS. DAY 1 QPF PROG IS CONCENTRATING PCPN IN A FEW AREAS ACRS THIS REGION. ON THE SRN END OVR THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE VORT THAT IS MOVG INTO ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM LAST NIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO HELP RE-FIRE ACTIVITY OVR NERN TX THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EWD INTO LA AND AR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED INTACT INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVR THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV ENERGY THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING ESEWD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WL VEER TO A MORE SWLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THIS VORT ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHICH MAY FAVOR A SLOWER OVERALL MOVEMENT TO THE CONVECTION AS REGENERATION OF CONVECTION OR BACK BUILDING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WRN END OF THIS ACTIVITY. NERN U.S... THE MID LEVEL LOW BRINGING RAIN TO THE MID ATL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONT TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN MID ATL TONIGHT AND ACRS SRN NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. LATEST MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN ITS WEAKENING TREND. MANUAL QPF INCREASED PCPN SLIGHTLY GIVEN THIS SYSTEMS RESILIENCY THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON OVR THE MID ATL. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 07/00Z 0.01 564067 562059 561053 559048 551031 542018 532004 521993 511983 499976 493973 488972 484971 470971 461973 455977 450979 447982 441987 432996 428001 425006 428010 434016 440020 450027 457032 461038 471046 472051 472058 471073 471077 468080 463085 459089 450093 445093 441094 438096 435105 434110 435116 438122 443129 442133 438133 434136 432153 438169 442177 440181 438183 436188 437197 441204 445206 449204 452204 454206 449209 443211 433209 426207 424210 424213 425218 418227 414232 412236 411242 412250 413254 415257 419259 423261 432263 440265 446266 455267 462268 469269 478273 482276 484279 488285 497302 501304 503300 507300 0.01 488906 502888 510843 504813 488778 474772 461777 443794 425825 409851 405858 400863 392869 384873 368881 358886 351886 343887 336887 330886 325887 319886 314875 311867 310862 310858 313850 317838 318835 322831 327825 341815 346811 350808 356801 359796 363789 366781 366771 368763 373756 379749 381746 384745 390744 392744 396746 395752 392777 394783 405789 426782 452759 461736 454703 438682 415683 397695 369719 300763 270782 259788 251791 246797 244802 241811 241819 244828 256841 270860 288902 287924 287943 292959 295969 297973 301973 306974 311974 315972 319973 324975 329972 336969 352961 360958 370954 378960 393967 397966 400963 407959 409957 414955 421948 427944 430940 434938 437935 443931 450926 464914 488906 0.01 388042 388035 386028 385024 382021 377010 372004 369000 364998 361995 355995 350996 346994 338991 329989 320987 315988 309990 304994 303001 303008 306017 312023 320027 337031 352041 369047 375049 381049 385046 388042 0.25 550154 552147 553139 553121 552103 550090 547077 544066 541058 536048 531041 525034 519028 514019 509013 503007 495003 486003 482004 480007 478015 479022 483032 489040 491043 497045 501054 506061 511067 516072 521081 529101 529108 527109 524109 518105 510101 502097 494095 487094 471098 462102 457107 459113 461115 465118 469119 473119 483117 488117 493119 501123 510128 516133 523138 527145 529155 530163 528170 524170 518168 511165 502160 496154 495148 493145 489139 483134 478132 473130 465133 458138 453147 448151 444153 443156 443161 446166 448171 450180 450184 453185 459180 460175 459172 460169 465169 472171 476173 480176 492188 498195 504195 509198 515202 522208 527209 530204 532195 534187 536182 539178 542169 544157 550155 550154 0.25 508283 510273 510265 509250 508240 507233 502219 499207 496201 491202 471207 452215 447216 441217 432220 430224 431229 435233 432237 429240 429244 431246 444249 454251 466256 476261 485269 494279 498283 500285 503286 508283 0.25 489856 486852 479852 474854 469857 457865 447873 416899 396903 382902 344898 307889 298891 299903 299926 299943 300952 302964 306966 313962 328954 341948 350944 358940 365941 378946 386949 393948 400946 406942 411938 415933 421921 425915 429910 436900 443896 452895 459895 465896 469895 472892 476888 481881 485877 487873 489856 0.25 472819 472813 470809 465807 462808 458811 455814 445826 438836 432847 426860 424866 423869 424874 430873 434870 444860 451850 461840 468829 471822 472819 0.25 442719 439714 434711 424707 421713 420721 414731 409745 404756 403763 406766 408766 414765 421762 428758 434752 439739 439732 441726 442719 0.25 484232 483228 481226 480226 480227 480230 482233 484232 0.25 365015 362009 356006 350004 344003 339007 336011 340016 344020 349023 355026 360025 365019 365015 0.25 295810 292805 289803 282799 274796 268794 259794 254796 252800 250802 252805 256806 263810 269814 276818 283822 288821 290818 295810 0.50 542127 544120 544113 543102 540092 538082 534072 532067 529063 528068 530077 532087 534097 537108 539122 540126 542128 542127 0.50 532058 532057 529053 529052 528053 529055 531058 532059 532058 0.50 503276 500265 494254 492248 489245 481237 479232 474229 472228 473224 476220 487219 490216 485211 480209 474211 467213 449218 443219 439221 436224 436226 447232 446234 442239 442240 448244 459247 470251 481257 490263 492267 497272 501276 503276 0.50 426747 427742 425739 423738 420740 419743 418744 416746 414750 413751 412754 412756 413757 416757 418756 419756 422755 424753 426748 426747 0.50 304911 301939 306955 313956 343939 365934 376939 391941 403936 410923 409917 395920 379919 359911 334904 320902 315902 310903 306906 304911 0.50 281806 279802 275800 272798 269797 265796 259796 255799 253801 255804 259805 263807 266808 270809 273810 278809 281806 1.00 480244 480239 479236 478234 476232 474233 473234 471236 471241 472241 475244 477245 480244 1.00 464221 463220 460219 457219 456219 457221 459224 460224 463222 464221 1.00 394930 395926 393925 390926 387926 385928 383929 385932 385933 388933 391932 394930 394930 1.00 259801 267805 271805 274803 271800 269798 266797 259801 $$