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000 FXUS04 KWBC 091901 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 200 PM EST MON FEB 09 2009 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND NWRN GTLKS... XCP FOR SOME SLGT MDL DIFFS..WITH THE LATEST 12Z MDL GUIDANCE TAKING THE LIFTING OUT H5 CLOSED LOW AND SFC LOW A LTL W OF 00Z ECMWF HIRES SOLN..MDLS ARE OTRW IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE SYS INTO THE NRN PLAINS ERY TUE AND THE EXTRM NRN UPR MS VLY BY TUE EVE. SYS WON`T HAVE DEEP GULF MSTR TO WORK WITH..BUT DECENT HGT FALLS AND STG MID LVL DYNAMICS/LIFT WL SUPPORT ORGANIZED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN..ESP FM NRN SD NWD INTO ND..WITH A SWATH OF GENLY 0.50-1.00 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS XPCD. FOR THE MOST PART..TOOK A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND NAM QPF SOLNS AND THE 00Z ECMWF HIRES SOLN. ...OH VLY INTO THE MID MS VLY AND INTO PTNS OF THE SRN PLAINS... PRETTY DECENT INFLO OF HIER GULF MSTR WL BE PULLED INTO THE MID MS AND OH VLY DURG THE PD ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE LIFTING OUT PLAINS VORTEX..WITH SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENING TO GTR THAN 50KTS AND PWS INCREASING TO AOA 1.25 INCHES IN THE MORE FAVORED INFLO REGIME. THIS SHLD SET UP CONTD ORGANIZED PRE-FNTL RNFL/CNVCTN THIS EVE INTO TUE EVE FM AR NEWD INTO OH..IN COINCIDENT AXES OF LJJ AND HIEST PWS. NAM QFF LOOKS A LTL OVERDONE NCNTRL AR/SERN MO..GIVEN THINGS SHLD BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE..AT LEAST ERY ON..SO WENT WITH LESSER QPF THAN THE NAM..IN LN WITH MUCH OF THE OTHER MDL GUIDANCE. MSTLY XPC AN AXIS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH RNFL AMTS. LTR IN THE PD..RETUNR FLO WL STRENGTHEN INTO PTNS OF THE SRN PLAINS..LEADING TO AN EXPANSION OF CNVCTN PTNS OF ERN OK INTO SERN KS..IN LN WITH GFS..ECMWF HIRES AND CANADIAN GEM QPFS. ...SWRN STATES... MDLS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE CA CLOSING OFF H5 CNTR THRU THE SWRN STATES DURG THE PD..WITH THE SYS REACHING THE SRN HI PLAINS BY TUE EVE. STG MID LVL DYNAMICS/HGT FALLS WL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY PCPN..ESP IN THE HIER TERRAIN OF AZ INTO NM AND SWRN CO..WHERE PCPN TOTALS WL BE AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLO. MDL QPFS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE..AND GENLY FOLLOWED THEM RATHER CLOSELY. SOME GTR THAN 1.00 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS LIKELY PTNS OF CNTRL INTO ERN AZ. ...PAC NW... THE NEXT STG CLOSED LOW WL BE APCHG THE PAC NW CST BY THE END OF THE PD..WITH ALL MDL SOLNS IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. SYS NOT REAL MOIST..BUT THERE WL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO..WHICH ALG WITH FNTL LIFT AND DECENT HGT FALLS WL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PCPN LTR IN THE PD..ESP ALG THE IMMEDIATE WA..OR AND NWRN CA CSTS. AGAIN..MDL QPF SOLNS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT HERE AND LOOKED GOOD. TERRY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 11/00Z 0.01 496047 514046 530035 542021 548000 546974 531953 513924 512881 515851 517823 507790 491777 480756 471730 453700 443688 433680 426676 421675 416675 409677 405680 402685 399690 397698 399706 402714 407721 417734 419736 420741 418748 414764 411770 407776 403779 401779 396775 392777 391780 389786 384797 377810 370823 364839 353864 347871 343875 336879 332882 324887 320889 314888 307889 302891 294895 289897 289901 307919 302929 300936 298941 292952 289955 284959 277970 279975 283981 292987 298990 302991 306990 311988 314989 322989 334988 346984 356979 369971 372968 374964 377956 376949 373941 369937 367929 370923 376920 381916 388914 401910 408910 414912 420916 425922 427925 427931 425941 419954 413970 414978 415984 422997 435020 441027 446032 459041 465043 468045 472046 479046 487047 496047 0.01 533215 535206 532200 529194 528189 529184 531181 531173 530170 522164 517157 514154 510155 509160 511165 508166 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