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000
FXUS04 KWBC 091901
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EST MON FEB 09 2009
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND NWRN GTLKS...
XCP FOR SOME SLGT MDL DIFFS..WITH THE LATEST 12Z MDL GUIDANCE
TAKING THE LIFTING OUT H5 CLOSED LOW AND SFC LOW A LTL W OF 00Z
ECMWF HIRES SOLN..MDLS ARE OTRW IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE SYS INTO THE NRN PLAINS ERY TUE AND THE EXTRM NRN UPR MS VLY
BY TUE EVE. SYS WON`T HAVE DEEP GULF MSTR TO WORK WITH..BUT
DECENT HGT FALLS AND STG MID LVL DYNAMICS/LIFT WL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN..ESP FM NRN SD NWD INTO
ND..WITH A SWATH OF GENLY 0.50-1.00 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS XPCD.
FOR THE MOST PART..TOOK A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND NAM QPF
SOLNS AND THE 00Z ECMWF HIRES SOLN.
...OH VLY INTO THE MID MS VLY AND INTO PTNS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
PRETTY DECENT INFLO OF HIER GULF MSTR WL BE PULLED INTO THE MID MS
AND OH VLY DURG THE PD ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE LIFTING OUT PLAINS
VORTEX..WITH SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENING TO GTR THAN 50KTS AND PWS
INCREASING TO AOA 1.25 INCHES IN THE MORE FAVORED INFLO REGIME.
THIS SHLD SET UP CONTD ORGANIZED PRE-FNTL RNFL/CNVCTN THIS EVE
INTO TUE EVE FM AR NEWD INTO OH..IN COINCIDENT AXES OF LJJ AND
HIEST PWS. NAM QFF LOOKS A LTL OVERDONE NCNTRL AR/SERN MO..GIVEN
THINGS SHLD BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE..AT LEAST ERY ON..SO WENT WITH
LESSER QPF THAN THE NAM..IN LN WITH MUCH OF THE OTHER MDL
GUIDANCE. MSTLY XPC AN AXIS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH RNFL AMTS. LTR IN
THE PD..RETUNR FLO WL STRENGTHEN INTO PTNS OF THE SRN
PLAINS..LEADING TO AN EXPANSION OF CNVCTN PTNS OF ERN OK INTO SERN
KS..IN LN WITH GFS..ECMWF HIRES AND CANADIAN GEM QPFS.
...SWRN STATES...
MDLS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE CA CLOSING OFF H5
CNTR THRU THE SWRN STATES DURG THE PD..WITH THE SYS REACHING THE
SRN HI PLAINS BY TUE EVE. STG MID LVL DYNAMICS/HGT FALLS WL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY PCPN..ESP IN THE HIER TERRAIN OF AZ
INTO NM AND SWRN CO..WHERE PCPN TOTALS WL BE AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLO.
MDL QPFS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE..AND GENLY FOLLOWED
THEM RATHER CLOSELY. SOME GTR THAN 1.00 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS
LIKELY PTNS OF CNTRL INTO ERN AZ.
...PAC NW...
THE NEXT STG CLOSED LOW WL BE APCHG THE PAC NW CST BY THE END OF
THE PD..WITH ALL MDL SOLNS IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. SYS NOT
REAL MOIST..BUT THERE WL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL ONSHORE
FLO..WHICH ALG WITH FNTL LIFT AND DECENT HGT FALLS WL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN PCPN LTR IN THE PD..ESP ALG THE IMMEDIATE WA..OR AND
NWRN CA CSTS. AGAIN..MDL QPF SOLNS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT HERE
AND LOOKED GOOD.
TERRY
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 11/00Z
0.01 496047 514046 530035 542021 548000 546974 531953 513924
512881 515851 517823 507790 491777 480756 471730 453700
443688 433680 426676 421675 416675 409677 405680 402685
399690 397698 399706 402714 407721 417734 419736 420741
418748 414764 411770 407776 403779 401779 396775 392777
391780 389786 384797 377810 370823 364839 353864 347871
343875 336879 332882 324887 320889 314888 307889 302891
294895 289897 289901 307919 302929 300936 298941 292952
289955 284959 277970 279975 283981 292987 298990 302991
306990 311988 314989 322989 334988 346984 356979 369971
372968 374964 377956 376949 373941 369937 367929 370923
376920 381916 388914 401910 408910 414912 420916 425922
427925 427931 425941 419954 413970 414978 415984 422997
435020 441027 446032 459041 465043 468045 472046 479046
487047 496047
0.01 533215 535206 532200 529194 528189 529184 531181 531173
530170 522164 517157 514154 510155 509160 511165 508166
504166 501164 495159 491155 491151 493148 496145 495140
490134 484129 481127 476125 472126 469130 468134 465137
456139 452140 448138 443133 439127 437124 437120 449122
453119 455113 456100 452093 448090 444091 441092 437092
432088 434084 437081 441073 442068 439063 430052 422049
413048 405043 393037 380033 354029 338032 336039 341045
341048 338048 332048 330046 325045 321045 316043 311045
310049 308052 307059 308063 310062 311064 314066 316068
317073 316075 313077 306080 297085 293087 291096 292102
293105 297111 304120 308127 314133 319135 325131 329130
330133 331138 334142 340144 344146 344149 345153 345158
336158 328157 319154 315151 309150 304149 301153 304159
316168 329176 335180 339185 341194 344201 363218 364214
360209 352199 352194 354191 356187 359188 362188 365193
372195 381197 378192 373188 367184 359182 354179 352176
350171 350164 354160 359160 366159 370154 375148 378141
380138 380136 379133 379130 384127 387126 391126 389132
385139 384146 383152 386158 386168 389173 397175 404174
408173 410170 413168 416168 427167 431162 436162 440165
445171 449173 453172 456165 457163 460164 462166 467172
471173 474172 476173 480178 484180 488181 498183 503184
506187 511194 514199 518210 524211 527213 530216 533215
0.01 518278 519269 518263 518257 516250 514238 512232 509226
508221 502211 496205 491203 486202 480201 475202 468205
461206 455210 450209 446212 442211 436211 427207 423208
421213 421221 418225 416222 414219 410218 407221 399227
393235 389243 386249 384256 383264 382270 382274 387291
393298 398305 402307 407309 413311 423311 431310 438309
444308 453307 459307 464309 471312 479314 488317 494318
500317 504313
0.01 483147 483146 480144 477144 474144 472145 474146 477147
480147 483147 483147
0.01 393105 392104 389103 386104 385105 383106 381108 383112
385112 386112 389110 390109 392107 393105
0.25 504286 505282 505278 504273 501265 492249 487241 482234
477229 470231 465229 465225 466222 464217 458216 449217
440218 438220 439224 444226 447226 455227 463229 450234
443237 436239 427236 419235 411236 404240 403246 404253
409261 413267 417269 421269 428268 433271 438274 443275
447275 454274 460273 469273 475273 481277 488284 493287
499291 504286
0.25 516007 515002 514997 512994 506989 493983 476976 472974
470970 469964 470956 473947 477937 483917 486908 490898
492888 491874 490865 486859 481860 477865 476876 475880
473885 468907 455917 452922 451927 447936 445944 443954
443962 442968 438977 436986 436993 437000 443010 448017
458026 467031 476033 484035 493033 502029 509023 513016
516007
0.25 410807 410801 408799 402799 396801 391807 387814 382823
373844 366860 360871 354879 344893 337902 329909 325917
322926 322938 323946 325950 329955 323963 324970 327973
332976 347975 358971 364966 363957 360952 353945 350940
355930 363919 374903 378900 392887 402878 405875 408871
411861 410856 407852 409839 411826 408819 408813 410807
0.25 384079 385075 383072 379069 372062 368061 361060 358061
356065 356068 355075 351078 344084 334078 332078 328082
327089 324094 321096 318101 315104 315110 317114 320116
327117 333119 337126 340132 344134 348134 353131 362127
365125 365120 362115 360110 359107 359103 363102 372096
379090 384079
0.25 367082 364081 362082 363086 364086 365086 367083 367082
0.50 504013 503004 498000 489996 477993 465989 459987 453985
445988 443990 442995 445005 452014 461022 468025 473026
481027 487027 495023 499020 504013
0.50 477247 475243 471244 470245 471246 474248 477248 477247
0.50 426247 429244 427241 424239 421240 420241 421245 422245
423246 426247 426247
0.50 402811 401810 398811 396813 395813 394816 392819 390823
389824 389828 391829 394827 394826 396823 398820 400816
400815 402811 402811
0.50 389863 385863 381862 375868 364877 358882 354887 345899
341904 338910 336916 335921 336926 339932 344929 354920
360915 364910 369903 372898 376891 380885 383879 386872
389863
0.50 377080 375077 374078 374080 375083 375084 376083 377080
0.50 353960 351958 351957 348956 345957 343958 342959 341962
343965 346965 349964 352963 353960
0.50 355121 351113 347103 344094 338086 335083 331085 331092
330098 324105 323108 326111 331112 334114 339123 342126
345127 348124 351123 355121
1.00 346113 346112 345109 344106 343103 343102 342099 341096
340096 338095 337095 338099 337102 336105 337109 339112
340114 343114 346114 346113
$$
