AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 313 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2000...UPDATED PER 18Z MESOETA AND LATEST RUC2 SFC WIND PROGS WILL EXTEND THE GOING BLWG SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. TOO MANY COUNTIES CURRENTLY UNDER SNOW EMERGENCIES AND MOST COUNTY ROADS DRIFTED SHUT. WHAT A WEEK! 17Z SFC MAP SHOWING INTENSE LOW PRES CONTG TO PULL OFF TO THE NE THRU CANADA. COLD AIR CONTS TO POUR INTO CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING. UPSTREAM READINGS OVR IA/IL ALL AOB ZERO. NW COMPONENT OFF THE LK STILL CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LK EFFECT CONTRARY TO QUITE LOW INVERSION HGHTS. PRES GRADIENT CONTS QUITE INTENSE WITH MOST PLACES GUSTING 25-30KTS AND WILL CONT BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM. MAJOR CONCERNS LIE WITH NEXT SYS AND TEMPS. 12Z MODELS LIKE EARLIER RUNS CONT TO INDICATE VRY ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE. NEXT SYS IN STREAM OF ENDLESS SYS/S DROPPING SEWD ATTM THRU CENTRAL ROCKIES IN ADV OF 140+KT JET OVR OR WHICH ALL MODELS INITIALIZED QUITE WELL WITH. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVR CO/WY. THIS SYS PROGGED VRY SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESOR WITH 48HR ETA PROG MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODEL INITIALIZATION. HWVR CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTR FOR THIS SYS TO WORK WITH AS OPPOSED TO YDA/S STORM. WILL LEAN TOWARD STGR ETA SOLUTION GIVEN WHATS OCCURED WITH PREVIOUS SYS/S OVR THE LAST WEEK. IMPRESSIVE H5 HGHT FALL COMBINED WITH SIG CAA UNDER DVLPG UPR TROF AND UPR JET COUPLING IN 36-48HR TIME FRAME FOREBODING. SFC/MID LVL LOW TRACK NRLY IDENTICAL TO SYS YDA BUT APPARENTLY MUCH WKR. TIME WILL TELL BUT FEEL MODELS UNDERPLAYING SFC DVLPMNT GIVEN UPR DYNAMICS FALLING INTO PLACE. OTHERWISE THE ONLY CONTENTION WITH THE ETA MODEL IS ITS LACK OF MODEL QPF GIVEN SIG UVV LT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. INTERESTING TO NOTE ITS CORRESPONDING HALF INCH QPF WAY UP IN THE COLD AIR OVER WI AND MI. AT ANY RATE...PROGGED TRACK OF SYS QUITE FAVRBL FOR SIG SNOW ACRS FA. AS SYS DEPARTS TUE...SIG LK EFFECT ON TAP WITH HEART OF COLD AIR COMING OVR LK. BUFKIT SHOWING INVERSION HGHTS INCREASING TO NR 10K/FT TUE WITH GOOD LK BASED INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC WRAPAROUND AND VRY FVRBL FETCH. TEMPS THIS PM ALREADY WELL BEHIND SOME GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAV/FAN DOING BETTER BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH. WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY ESP FOR TONIGHT WITH LTR PDS LOOKING CLOSE BUT PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH GIVEN THE DEEPENING SNOWPACK. WILL FOR NOW DEFER ANY NEEDED HIGHLITES TO NEXT SHIFT AS SYS MAY COME OUT FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER IN LTR MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL ISSUE ANOTHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLITE UPCOMING THREAT GIVEN MAIN EVENT XCPD IN THE THIRD AND FOURTH PDS. .IWX...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ENTIRE CWA. TEH in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1011 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2000 VRY TOUGH CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA THIS AM. RUC2 AND SAT SHOWING DEEP CYC MOISTR STUCK IN PLACE WITH FVRBL FETCH OF LK MI. QUITE A BIT OF SHSN ACTIVITY DVLPG OVERHEAD ATTM WITH A CALL FM MICHIGAN CITY OF 1/2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES OFF THE LAKE. WINDS MAKING THINGS MUCH WORSE WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL LAST NIGHT. MOST N-S ROADS REPORTED IMPASSABLE WITH INDOT PULLING THE PLOWS OFF EARLIER THIS AM. WILL NEED TO ADD NW CORNER TO CURRENT BLWG SNOW ADVISORY AND UP ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN MANY CURRENT REPORTS OF MOD SNOW FALLING NOW. THINGS WILL START WINDING DOWN AS VRY INTENSE LOW OVR W QUE CONTS TO PULL OFF TO THE NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS THE OTHER DILEMMA WITH 15Z READINGS WELL BLO GUIDANCE ESP ACRS THE S HALF. WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. .IWX...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA. TEH in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 910 PM CST SUN DEC 17 2000 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE SLOWER H500 TROF POSITIONS OF THE 18Z ETA AND 00Z RUC APPEARED CLOSEST TO REALITY. 00Z 3HR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE BEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT BY 02Z THE FALLS WERE INCHING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST RUC AND NEW 00Z MODELS KEEP DELAYING THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIP...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THAN 12Z VERSIONS. AM HESITANT TO DOWNPLAY THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW LATE TONIGHT NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALL AREAS. WON'T MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO AMOUNTS (ALTHOUGH MAY PHASE DOWN AN INCH)...BUT WILL DELAY THE ONSET (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST). A DELAYED BEGINNING WILL ALSO LESSEN THE RISK OF A WINTRY MIX. .TOP...CONTINUE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF AN ABILENE TO COUNCIL GROVE TO GARNETT LINE. ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 855 PM CST SUN DEC 17 2000 LATEST RUC DATA SHOWING RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH LOWS BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND A FEW HOURS LATER ACROSS THE EAST. RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ALREADY HANDLED WITH CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER ALL SECTIONS AS HIGH HAS SHIFTED TO MS/AL BORDER AND LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SATELLITE SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FORMING IN SOUTH TEXAS AT VICTORIA AND MOVING NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT RUC AND MESOETA SOUNDINGS FOR TEXARKANA AND NORTHWARD THERE WONT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND TOO MUCH WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE...FREEZING LEVEL 8-10 THOUSAND FEET FOR ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT POSSIBLY DRIZZLE/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL CHANGE WORDING FOR THE TWO ZONES THAT HAVE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL JET REACHES 50 KNOTS OVER EAST TEXAS BY 18/09Z. NO ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WILL TAKE OUT EVENING WORDING AS WELL. 09 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 935 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2000 MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS LES. WV IMAGERY/RUC ANAL SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EXTENDING FROM E ONTARIO TO DELAWARE VALLEY. ANOTHER TROF EXTENDED FROM SW MANITOBA THROUGH W DAKOTAS TO COLORADO. SLIGHT VEERING OF WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ENOUGH TO DECREASE ORGANIZATION OF LES BANDS AND PUSH THEM FARTHER INLAND OVER MQT COUNTY. SPOTTY 28+DBZ RETURNS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES. KINL 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS INVERSION AT 2K FEET WITH KAPX SHOWING INVERSION NEAR 6K FEET WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS <2C IN MIXED LAYER. KCMX STILL REPORTING -SN WITH VIS GENERALLY AROUND 2SM...BUT LAST OB SHOWED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH. LAST FEW OBS FROM KCMX ALSO SHOW INCREASING TREND IN BOTH CIGS AND VIS. LAKE-H85 DELTA/T REMAINS AROUND 18C OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. 00Z RUC HAS MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON SFC PATTERN THAN 18Z ETA...SO FOLLOWED RUC FOR UPDATE. 02Z SFC ANAL SHOWS COL JUST WEST OF UPR MI...BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO WESTERN UPR/LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TURN MORE ANTICYCLONIC. WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITIES REMAINING IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED -SHSN. GIVEN EXPECTED TRENDS... PLAN TO DROP LES ADVISORY OVER ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. .MQT...NONE. JS mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 720 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2000 STILL LOOKING BACK ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST LAST NIGHT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH WAS FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN MODELS...AND WE...PREDICTED. 400MB DEFORMATION ZONE WAS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AFTER 06Z SUN AND WAS PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 50-80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WHERE IT FINALLY DID SET UP. IN ADDITION...WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTIONS (>20 UB/S 850-500MB) THIS AIDED THE DYMANICAL COOLING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW QUITE QUICKLY. FURTHERMORE... SEVERAL REPORTS OF THUNDER LAST NIGHT WHICH ONLY COMPLICATED FACTORS LATER ON WITH BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. SEE THE LATEST ARBPNSDTX FOR SNOW TOTALS...COMPLETE LIST OUT SHORTLY. NOW WE MUST MOVE ON TO THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. 88D FROM HERE...KDTX...AND KGRR SHOW ABOUT AN 80 MILE WIDE BAND DECREASING IN INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE MAIN BAND IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE I94-I96 CORRIDOR BUT VISIBILITIES FROM SURROUNDING OBS ARE AROUND 3-4 MILES. LOOKING AT THE 6KM LOCALLY RUN ETA SOUNDINGS...OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE INVERSION LEVELS WERE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 4600 FEET...LOW HEIGHTS. 1000-850 WIND TRAJECTORIES AROUND 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARD 250 DEGREES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING THE SAME. THINK AS NIGHT PROGRESSES WE SHOULD FIND ONE BAND OF SNOW ALONG I96 BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM THEN SHIFT NORTH...JUST NORTH OF I69...AROUND MIDNIGHT. 1000-850 OMEGAS FROM THE 6KM ETA DO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. CURRENT ZONES LOOK GREAT AND WILL TWEAK FOR THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW. NEXT CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES. CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE ZONES REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS WELL WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ACROSS LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL. RUC MODEL DID SHOW THE COLDEST 925/850 TEMPS FOR THOSE AREAS AND WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN. THE REST OF THE CWA LOOKS GOOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL DO A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING. LATEST 18Z RUN OF THE ETA ALREADY TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE. UNLIKE LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM...THIS ONE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. BUFKIT HOURLY SOUNDINGS AND THE QPF ARE GETTING CLOSE TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS THE CWA. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290/295 K SURFACE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES GETTING A BIT HIGHER EACH RUN. MIDNIGHT CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS ANOTHER DEFORMATION AXIS...AS SEEN ON THE 18Z ETA...MIGHT SET UP ONCE AGAIN. AS ALWAYS...QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ARE WELCOME. NOTE...NOAA WEATHER RADIO KIH-29 IN FLINT CONTINUES TO BE OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. .DTX...GALE WARNING...THIS EVENING...LAKES ST CLAIR AND HURON BGM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1155 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2000 LES MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON NW FLOW BEHIND RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO HAS BEEN DRAGGING COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE EAST. WITH COLDER AIR STILL ARRIVING AND SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES UPSTREAM, THE CRUX OF THE FCST PROBLEM WILL BE WIND DIRECTION. 15Z RUC/12Z ETA SHOWS BL WINDS CONTINUING AT ABOUT 340 DEG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SO, MOD/HVY LES BANDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...MOD/HVY LES BANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 25 MILES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BASED ON RADAR ECHOES/VWP THE INVERSION IS NOW ABOUT 7K FT WITH DELTA T'S OVER 17C. BASED ON THAT...WILL CONTINUE WARNING IN GOGEBIC COUNTY AND ISSUE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADV IN ONT/HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR 2-5 ADDITIONAL. FEEL THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS STILL IN GOGEBIC COUNTY. IN THE EAST...STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS ALL MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE CAA. WITH >28DBZ ECHOES ON RADAR, WILL NEED ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN MARQUETTE, ALGER AND LUCE. WENT 4-8 INCHES HERE WITH STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND LONGER RESIDENCE TIMES. MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN MID AFTERNOON IF BANDS CONTINUE STRENGTHENING. TEMPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND CHANGED LITTLE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. COORDINATED WITH DLH. .MQT...LES WARNING THIS AFTERNOON MIZ009 LES ADVY THIS AFTERNOON MIZ001>003-005-006-014. ALTOE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1010 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2000 LIKE THEY SAY...IT AIN'T OVER TIL IT'S OVER. LOTS OF RAFL FELL OVER ORIGINAL FLOOD WATCH AREA OF POCONOS/WRN CATS WITH OVER 2 INCHES FROM COOP AND RAIN SPOTTER NETWORKS IN PA AND ISOLD 3 IN AMOUNTS. LESSER INCH TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS SUSQ RGN AND WRN MHWK VALLEY. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN AND CONVECTION WL MOVE EAST OF AREA TAFTN...AND IS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF WRN AND CNTRL SXNS. TELCOS TO EMERG MANAGERS YIELDS ONLY MINOR NUISANCE FLOOD PROBLEMS. CREEKS ARE HIGH...BUT IN CHECK. WL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FROM ONEIDA TO BROOME COUNTY WEST...WHICH HAD LESS RAIN AND IS WEST OF HVY RAIN NOW. WL KEEP UP POCS/CATS/NRN TIER. AS EXPECTED...WINDS UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO STABLE LLVL AIRMASS. FROPA MAY SHAKE THINGS UP BRIEFLY...BUT EVEN WESTERLIES BEHIND FRONT NOW COMING INTO WRN NY AND PA ARE WELL BELOW DANGER LVLS. LOW CONTUS TO DEEPEN AS NEG TILT TROF ADVANCES...SO WL JUST LEAVE WIND ADVSRY AS IS...JUST IN CASE. TEMPS GOT OUT OF HAND AND MUCH MILDER THAN THOUGHT...DKK DROPPED FROM 50 TO 38 IN AN HOUR...SO WILL IGNORE THE HIGHS NOW AND GO FOR THE FALLING TEMPS LATER TODAY. RUC .BGM...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NE PA...AND WRN CATSKILLS OF NY. WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL OF NE PA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BREWSTER ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1043 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2000 WILL UPDATE GOING ZFP TO KEEP THINGS FRESH AND MAKE A FEW CHANGES. SFC STORM SYS TO TRACK ACRS ONT/QUE TODAY. UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED STRONG TROP FOLD) TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AS WELL. NO 00Z MODEL DATA EVALUATED FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. 09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U40S-M50S TODAY. T1MAX TEMPS MATCH THIS RANGE PRETTY WELL. MESONET OBS SHOW THAT SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY AT THESE READINGS AT 14Z (50S ACRS NRN NY STATE AND 30S AND 40S ACRS VT). SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY. CAPES OF 1000+ J/KG TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA (FROM THE CHAMP VLY EASTWARD) TODAY. LTG DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING N-NE ACRS SRN VT ATTM. HAVE ADDED A CHC FOR TSRA TO SRN/ERN VT ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. GOOD LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TODAY. PW VALUES APPEAR TO BE 1"-1.25" FOR THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY. BRUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE NRN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF TODAY. 50+KT JET AT H85 TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TODAY. KCXX VWP SHOWS 50 KTS AT 3-4KFT ATTM. EXPECT HIR WINDS TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TRRN TODAY. STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHC AT MIXING DOWN ACRS THE FA AS THE FRONT MOVES ON BY TONITE THOUGH. WILL CONT WIND ADVISORY INTO TONITE ACRS ALL ZONES. FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST FROM MY PERSPECTIVE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING LOOKED TO BE 0.2"-1.0". 1" AMTS WERE NOT WIDESPREAD THOUGH. TEMPS IN THE VT MTNS LOOK TO BE TOO COLD STILL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT JUST DUE TO TEMPS. RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS HAS MOST LIKELY HAS ADDED SOME AMT OF WATER TO WATERWAYS IN VT THOUGH. ON THE NY SIDE...THINGS ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE MOST LIKELY ADDING A FAIR AMT OF WATER TO RIVERS AND STREAMS OUT THAT WAY. WILL BE MONITORING RIVER LEVELS AT THE FOLLOWING GAGES IN PARTICULAR: ASFN6...PBGN6...CENV1... NHVV1...AND MOOV1. WILL DIGEST RFC DATA FROM MORNING RUNS AND ISSUE AN FFS A LIL LATER ON FLOOD THREAT. FEW TWEAKS TO GOING FIRST PERIOD TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. ADDED MENTION OF SOME FOG ACRS AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWCOVER BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCES DRIVING THROUGH AREAS WITH RAINFALL OVER SNOWCOVER. FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AS WELL. WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY AROUND 11 AM. .BTV...WIND ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 345 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000 MAIN FCST CONCERN IS IN THE SHORT TERM PD...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EARLY TDA THEN HOW MUCH WL IT BE BLOWN AROUND BY INCREASING NW WINDS. DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW HAS SET UP FM NR LNK THRU OMA INTO WCNTRL IA...VERY SIMILAR TO LAST SUN NGT/MON AM...AIDED BY UPR DIFLUENCE WITH UPR JET COUPLING PLUS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. BOTH OF THESE FORCING FEATURES SHIFT EWD RATHER RAPIDLY AFT 12Z. HOWEVER... SNOWFALL RATES WERE ARND 1 INCH PER HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS WITH SNOW PRBLY LASTING THRU 12-13Z IN LNK AND 13-15Z IN OMAHA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE STORM TOTALS OF AT LEAST 3-5 INCHES AROUND LNK UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FM OMA NEWD...SPCLY IF RUCS IDEA OF SHIFTING THE QPF INTO NRN ZONES VERIFIES. WITH WSHFT VSBYS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 1 MILE IN BLSN AT OFK...AND WOULD LOOK FOR REDUCED VSBYS IN BLSN MUCH OF TDA. WND CHILLS WILL ALSO FALL...BUT PRBLY WON'T REACH ADVSRY LEVELS N TIL NOON OR LATER AND S LATER IN THE AFTN IF AT ALL. PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED YDA...SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYS IS MORE THAN SAT BUT WINDS AND WIND CHILLS AREN'T AS QUITE AS BAD. QUESTION IS WL THEY BE BAD ENOUGH FOR WARNING VS. ADVSRY. SINCE AMOUNTS WL APPROACH 4-6 INCHES ARND OMAHA AND 3-5 IN LNK...WL EXTEND CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING SW TO INCLUDE OMAHA...LNK AND SEWARD AND SALINE COUNTIES. WITH NO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WHICH OCCURRED BFR THE WINDS ON SAT...AND MORE FRESH POWDER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH BLOWING TO GREATLY REDUCE VSBYS EVEN IF AMOUNTS DON'T VERIFY. WOULD EXPECT WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE DOWNGRADED LATER TDA AS SNOW TAPERS/ENDS BUT WON'T SPLIT IT UP IN MORNING ZONES IN CASE BLOWING RMNS SUBSTANTIAL ALL DAY. BYND TDA...FCST LOOKD PRETTY GOOD FOR TNGT AND TUE WITH DECREASING WNDS TNGT AND RTN FLOW AGAIN ON TUE. WL LOWER TEMPS A LTL E/SE TNGT AND HIGHS A LTL ON TUE BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL FRESH SNOW. NEXT SYS TO AFFECT ZONES WED IN EXTENDED FCST AS PTN CONTS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THRU END OF WK. .OMA...WINTER STORM WARNING...TODAY SEWARD AND SALINE COUNTIES NE THRU CUMING...DODGE...SAUNDERS...LANCASTER...CASS...SARPY ...DOUGLAS...WASHINGTON...AND BURT COUNTIES IN NEBR AND POTTAWATTAMIE...SHELBY...HARLAN AND MONONA COUNTIES IN IA. CHERMOK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1000 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000 FRONT AS OF 15Z WAS NEAR A TYR/FSM LINE AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS FRONT EXITING ALL BUT MY EXTREME EASTERN THIRD BY 21Z THIS AFTN. MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH IN ABUNDANCE...JUST AS THE ETA SAID IT WOULD WITH 88D SHOWING LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ALONG AN ELD/SHV/LFK LINE. SOME "UP" OR LIGHT SLEET REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR IN ELD BUT BRIEF ENOUGH NOT TO BE MISSED IN CURRENT ZONES. CLOUDS CLEARING RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS E TX/SE OK SO WILL NEED TO UPDATE FOR THIS. THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY SO WILL WORD CLEARING AREAS AS PC. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO NEAR 25KTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SO 15 TO 25 AND GUSTY WILL WORK IN ZONES. MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPS HERE AND THERE AS WELL BUT SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PARTIAL WARMUP BEHIND FRONT. UPDATE OUT BY 1100 AM. 13 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1117 AM EST MON DEC 18 2000 WILL OPT TO UPDATE GOING ZFP TO DROP WIND ADVISORY AND MAKE A FEW OTHER CHANGES. STRONG STORM SYS TO CONT TO TRACK ACRS EXTREME ERN QUE TODAY. SFC PRESS GRADIENT TO DECREASE TODAY. WK SFC (AND UPR) HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND THE FA TONITE. ANOTHER... WEAKER...STORM SYS TO TRACK DOWN THE OH VLY TONITE. UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED TROP FOLD) TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE. 09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS HANGIN' TUFF AT 15-25 DEG F TODAY. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 25-30. MESONET OBS INDICATE THAT READINGS HAVEN/T ROSE MUCH FROM OVRNITE LOWS LAST NITE. WILL CONT IDEA OF WORDING TODAY/S HIGHS AS "TEMPERATURES" INSTEAD OF ACTUAL HIGHS. WESTERLY SFC FLOW TO DIMINISH TO 5-15 KTS BY LATER TODAY. MID-LVLS DRY TODAY. LOW-LVLS TO DRY OUT AFTER 18Z TODAY. LES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TODAY. RUC INDICATES THAT ANY PCPN THAT/S LINGERING ACRS THE REGION WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THRU 18Z. WILL CONT WITH SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES ACRS MOSTLY THE HIR TRRN INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. H85 JET MAX WELL TO THE NE OF THE FA ATTM...SO WILL DROP WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF TODAY. STRONG H85 CAA ACRS THE FA TODAY...WK CAA EARLY TONITE FOLLOWED BY NEUTRAL ADVECTION LATER TONITE. MID-LVL MOISTURE TO RETURN ACRS NRN NY STATE LATER TONITE. LOW-LVLS TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH. PCPN SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FA TONITE. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CLDS ON THE NY SIDE OVRNITE TONITE. FEW TWEAKS TO GOING FIRST PERIOD WINDS TO KEEP FRESH. REST OF CHANGES TO GOING ZFP MOSTLY COSMETIC. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS PARTS OF THE HSA ATTM...MOSTLY DUE TO WIDESPREAD 2-3" OF RAIN ACRS ERN/SRN VT. SEE PNSBTV FOR STORM TOTALS AND FLSBTV/FLWBTV FOR UPDATES ON ANY FLOODING. WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY AROUND 1130 AM. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 928 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000 ...SNOWFALL INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ENHANCED COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS IOWA... MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF THE 300-500 MB ADVECTION OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND AGEOSTROPHIC DIVERGENCE FROM COUPLED JETS. THE LATEST ETA AND RUC MODELS SHOW THIS AREA BEING MAXIMIZED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WE ALREADY HAVE 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THIS MORNING IN MOST PLACES. LAPS TIME/HEIGHT DATA SHOWING SNOW MAINLY DENDRITES WITH 15-20 TO 1 RATIOS EXPECTED. THIS IS NOT COMFORTING GIVEN SOME OF THE ALARMING LIQUID AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY THE RUC AND ETA. GIVEN THESE... WILL UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH 6 TO 8 (CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE) INCHES EXPECTED. COORDINATED WITH MKX/MPX/DMX/DVN/GRB. .LSE...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...IAZ008>001-018- 019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044- 053>055-061. KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1030 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000 UPDATING WSWILX AND ZFPILX AS SNOW SETTING IN LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. DRY THROUGH NOON ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...THEN SNOW TO SPREAD IN FROM W-E DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR 3-5 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MENTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON STARTING SNOW ADVISORY EASTCENTRAL IL BY KCMI/KDNV. WILL INCREASE WINDS BY AT LEAST 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND MENTION BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW JUST STARTING TO ENTER W IL FROM KUIN TO KMLI AROUND 10 AM WHILE STILL SOME SUNSHINE PEAKING THROUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS EAST CWA. 16Z/10 AM TEMPS HAVE MODIFIED TO AROUND 15 WITH NW IL BY KGBG/KMLI AT 10-12. WINDS ESE 9-18 MPH. NEW RUC AND MESOETA START SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING E OF I-57 AFTER 21Z/3 PM. 1011 MB LOW JUST NE OF KSGF IN SW MO LIFTS ENE TO 1009 MB TO BETWEEN KDEC/KMTO BY 00Z/TUE. BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY 6 PM WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WINDS TO TURN NW BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS CWA AND INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY CAUSING MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WIND CHILLS TO DROP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT AND CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS LOWS REACH 5-10 NORTH OF I-70 AND 10-15 SOUTH. .ILX...SNOW ADVSORY FOR ALL BUT 6 SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. $$ HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 231 PM EST MON DEC 18 2000 19Z SFC MAP ALG W SAT INDICATING ELONGATED SFC LOW OVR E MO. PRIMARY LOW IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPG IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SW TROF OVR SW MO. SECONDARY LEAD SW TROF IN ASSOC/W MID-UPR LVL CIRC OVR S IA RESPONSIBLE FOR DECENT SWATH OF SNOW ACRS E NE AND IA. HWVR DEFORMATION ZONE HAD WKND THIS AM AS LEAD SW GETS ABSORBED INTO MID LVL CIRC. 18Z RUC VRY SIMILAR TO 12Z ETA IN ITS MID LVL LOW PLACEMENT 06Z TUE. 12Z MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT LG SCALE. MAIN CONTENTION ATTM IS AMT OF MOISTR WORKING INTO THIS SYS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY PLACEMENT OF MODEL QPF. ETA HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL LAST WEEK WITH ALL THESE STORMS. BOTHERSOME THING ABT THE ETA IS ITS QPF MAX NR .30 INCH OVR SE CORNER OF CWA OVERNIGHT. ITS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN INITIALLY OPEN H5 LOW CLOSING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND THAN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO IL. AS THIS OCCURS...PRETTY GOOD BACKING TO OCCUR TO THE HGHT FIELD AHD OF MID LVL LOW AND PROXIMITY OF NOSE OF LOW LVL JET AND MOIST AXIS UP TO OH RVR ATTM...MAKE A JUSTIFIABLE CASE FOR THAT QPF PROG. GIVEN VRY COLD BNDRY LYR IN PLACE AND VRY FVRBL THERMAL PROFILE FOR DENDRITES...SWE OF AT LEAST 20:1 COULD BRING NR WARNING CRITERIA SE HALF. ON THE OTHER HAND...AVN/ETA DEPICT MID LVL DRY SLOT WORKING THRU SAME AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAIN THOSE QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE NW THIRD CLOSE TO MID LVL LOW TRACK AND FALL UNDER LK EFFECT SNOWBAND UMBRELLA TOMORROW SO WARNING NEEDED THERE. LK ENHANCED SNOW TRANSITION WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY LTR TONIGHT AS H8 TROF PASSES AND INVERSION HGHTS INCREASING TO NR 10 KFT TOMORROW. LITTLE SHEAR WITHIN CLD LYR SO XPC LK INDUCED THERMAL TROFFING AND 340 DEGREE OR SO FETCH EARLY TO ALLOW SINGLE SHORE PARALLE BAND TO DVLP. THIS BAND WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY AS SYS PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND WINDS BACK INTO THE AFTERNOON. SECOND DRAFT INDMISFWA WORKZONE SET OUT IN A FEW MINUTES. FOR NOW AM LEANING TOWARD WINTER WX ADVISORY SE THIRD...BUFFERED BY SNOW ADVISORY CENTRAL...AND WARNING NW THIRD. HWVR WILL WAIT TO SEE 18Z MESOETA AND SAT/RADAR TRENDS BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION ON HEADLINES. .IWX...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NW THIRD... ...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING CENTRAL... ...WINTER WX ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING SE THIRD... TEH in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1150 AM EST MON DEC 18 2000 LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN AND HAS BECOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM SNOW IS STARTING TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED AT LDM AND RQB AND KAPX 88D SHOWING THAT THE SNOW IS BEGINNING IN MANISTEE COUNTY AND A SNOW SPOTTER IN MANISTEE HAS REPORTED FLURRIES THERE NOW. 12Z ETA AND RUC ARE IN LINE AND SHOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO N LOWER MICHIGAN. SO HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER. .APX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MIZ031>034-041. WINTER STORM WATCH...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... MIZ023-024-029-030-035-036-042. LUTZ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 300 PM CST MON DEC 18 2000 ...ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG UNTIL LATE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI ZONES BY MIDNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC MODEL. DUE TO HIGH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES...WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE ADVISORIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES AND FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. BOTH ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL DECREASE. FOR THE COLD AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...BELIEVE AVN GUIDANCE AND ETA 2M TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW AND FOR THE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S IN MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ZONES AND ONLY INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. 24 HOUR QPF: NO SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED. EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT CONTINUES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EVENT COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. AVN MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEK-END. DON'T SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TILL AT LEAST CHRISTMAS DAY. SO FAR DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY TO INTRODUCE IT INTO THE FORECAST. MRF KEEPS MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AT THIS TIME. PRELIM NUMBERS... JAN 023/027 012/040 1000 MEI 023/027 011/040 4-00 .JAN... AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR ASHLEY AND CHICOT COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ZONES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR ALL OF OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 238 PM EST MON DEC 18 2000 .TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY DISCUSSION: CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO CAE CWA FROM THE WEST. WV LOOP AND MODELS APPROACH SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. RUC BRINGS BAND OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY 03Z WEST OF HERE IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ALABAMA. RUC DOES AT THAT TIME DEVELOP GULF LOW JUST SOUTH OF MOBILE. MESOETA BRINGS SHORT WAVE INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. THEN BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SWINGS THROUGH BY 03Z EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MESOETA H8 HAS WAA OVER CAE CWA AT 03Z EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WARM THE ATMOSPHERE UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM AND DECREASE THE CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY. H8 WAA ADVECTION CUTS OFF THOUGH AROUND 09Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST NEUTRAL ADVECTION AFTER THEN. H8 CAA BY 15Z LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND BY THAT TIME PTYPE SCHEMES AND BUFKIT INDICATE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW CAE AND NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX SOUTH PART. WITH LOWS EXPECTED AT OR BELOW 32...PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAE AND TO THE NORTH. BUT IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND WILL BECOME JUST RAIN SHORTLY AFTER 7 AM. IN THE SOUTH PART (IE AGS AND OGB) IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH TEMPS ALREADY ABOVE 32. LATER ON AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SINCE SITUATION IS NOT SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. WILL ISSUE SPS TO THE PUBLIC JUST TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL BE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS BUT WILL CUT HIGHS QUITE A BIT TUESDAY. .EXTENDED: .THU AND FRI...SHORT WAVE AND CDFNT APCH BUT WX LOOKS DRY. .SAT AND CHRISTMAS EVE...COLD HIGH PRESS. .CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH PRESS WITH TEMPS MODIFYING IN THE PM. FCSTID = 7 CAE 30 39 21 42 / 20 80 0 0 AGS 32 43 21 45 / 20 80 0 0 SSC 32 41 22 44 / 20 80 0 0 OGB 33 42 23 45 / 20 80 0 0 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1036 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000 SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO OVER THE REMAINDER OF WC TX...AS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. 15Z RUC AND 12Z MESO ETA INDICATE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL WORD AS SUCH IN AN UPCOMING ZONE UPDATE. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TARGET AT THIS TIME. .SJT...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. 14 tx