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WTIN20 DEMS 230755

                 

      SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

      --------------------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-10-2008



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND  ARABIAN SEA) VAILID FOR 

NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC  OF 23 OCTOBER,2008 

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23 OCTOBER 2008(.)



(1) THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED 

NORTHWESTWARDS  AND FURTHER WEAKENED INTO A WELL MARKED LOW

PRESSURE AREA OVER WEST-CENTRAL ARABAIN SEA AND ADJOINING

GULF OF ADEN AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,THE 23RD OCTOBER 2008.



SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDIACATE FURTHER DISORGANISATION

OF CONVECTION DURING PAST 12 HOURS .VORTEX IN THE SATELLITE

IMAGERY IS CENTRED NEAR LAT 14.0 DEG N AND LONG. 52.0 DEG E

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.0 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN PARTS OF GULF 

ADEN,ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT. 12.5 DEG N TO 15.0 DEG N AND

LONG 48.0 DEG E TO 53.0 DEG E AND YEMEN COAST. 

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS. 

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10-20 KTS

SHEAR TENDENCY IS -5 TO -10 KTS TO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.

THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG LAT 18 DEG N.



THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.



(2) THE FEEBLE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA

OFF KERALA-KARNATAKA COAST NOW LIES AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA

OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF

KERALA AND KARNATAKA COAST.IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE MARKED.

BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER ARABIAN SEA

BETWEEN 9.0 DEG N TO 15.0 DEG N AND LONG 66.0 DEG E TO 73.0 DEG E

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.





ENDS.

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