Narrative: for topic #365i "El Nino"

Searcher: P6    
System: Cheshire II (C)
Date: Thursday August 27, 1998 17:21-17:36 PM

The searcher (P6) was presented with the query #365i "El Nino" at 17:21
He studied the query description for a bit over a minute then
submitted a direct ranking search by entering 
"el nino climate effects" into the Ranked search box of the Cheshire II 
interface and clicked on the "Search" button at 17:22:28 

The search completed with 29862 total ranked hits, and
the first 12 ranked records were returned to the interface 
at 17:22:35 (Note that there is
no limit put on the ranking so documents containing any of the
search terms will be included in the full ranked list. )

The searcher read through the first record (FT923-14358)
and noted the aspects "drought global" on the worksheet. He then
selected and saved the record at 17:23:22. The select record follows

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-14358</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CGHATADDFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
708
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 JUL 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: El Nino 
drought 'appears to be over' </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By REUTER </BYLINE>
<DA
TELINE>    SYDNEY </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
THE DROUGHT that has ravaged crops and 
cost hundreds of millions of dollars
in countries across Asia and the South 
Pacific appears to be over,
meteorologists say, reports Reuter from Sydney.

Its cause, the climatic phenomenon known as El Nino, is dissipating with
som
e areas returning to normal weather conditions more quickly than others,
the
y said.
Australia is among the first of the major agricultural producers to 
emerge
from drought in most areas, while in India a return to normal rainfal
l is
expected in the late monsoon.
China's northern provinces are still in t
he grip of drought, however, though
it is unlikely to have much impact on th
e country's international trading
position.
'We're now in the declining phas
e of El Nino, it's global and it has had an
effect since early last year all
 round the planet, particularly in the
tropical regions,' an official at Aus
tralia's National Climate Centre said.
Ocean waters in the central and easte
rn equatorial Pacific, which had warmed
under El Nino were continuing to coo
l quite rapidly, the climate centre
reported.
Australia, whose farm sector w
as ravaged by drought and economic recession,
has already felt the effect of
 the changing conditions. 'Australia tends to
climb out of it earlier than o
thers,' the official said.
Drought conditions still persist in some areas of
 New South Wales and
southern Queensland but local output of grain and sugar
 is forecast to
recover significantly after last year's drought across easte
rn Australia.
The total value of wheat, coarse grains and sugar is forecast 
to rise by
nearly 30 per cent to ADollars 3.14bn (Pounds 1.2bn) in the year 
to the end
of June, 1993, compared with the previous drought-hit year.
In In
dia however, the change is taking longer to come through. 'It is
expected to
 come back to average in the late monsoon season,' Australia's
climate centr
e official said. Erratic rains in India last year caused food
grain output t
o fall to about 171m tonnes in the year to June 30, 1992 from
the previous y
ear's record 176m tonnes.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Lon
don Page 32 </PAGE>
</DOC>

The search changed the record format to "Review" (the shortest format)
at 17:24:21, then switched back the the default "Short" format at
17:24:35, and then switched back to "Review" again at 17:24:41

The user selected the third record in the ranked list (FT932-14766)
and noted "fishmeal industry peru" on his worksheet. This record
is included below:


<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-14766</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DDPB8AGDFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
416
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 APR 93 / Commodities and Agriculture: Peru's f
ishmeal industry set for bumper profits - Production survived last year's El
 Nino visitation to reach a fresh record </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SALLY BO
WEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE PERUVIAN fishmeal industry is gearing up for a bona
nza predicted to last
for the next two to three years. By late 1992, the sar
dine and anchovy that
form the staple raw material for the industry were bac
k in abundance after
being temporarily affected by the appearance of the dre
aded warm current
known as 'El Nino', which last ravaged fishmeal output in 
1983.
Contrary to predictions, however, Peruvian production survived last ye
ar's
milder visitation and a late boost in fish stocks turned 1992 into yet

another record year. Peru topped the world exporters' league with 1.37m
tonn
es, narrowly outstripping Chile's 1.21m tonnes.
'Statistically, the years af
ter a Nino are excellent,' says Mr Espino of
Imarpe, Peru's maritime institu
te, which is charged with husbanding the
resource and recommending periodic 
fishing bans. Mr Espino estimates that
the Peruvian catch could be raised by
 a quarter or a third from the present
6m tonnes a year without detriment to
 the species.
'And if the fishmeal producers started going for jack mackerel
 - at present
only about 80,000 tonnes a year are landed, perhaps 5 per cent
 of total
stocks - then the sky's the limit,' he says.
The main limitation o
n such expansion is fleet capacity. Most Peruvian
fishing boats are small, w
ith no refrigeration and hug the coast. When El
Nino hits, the fish move int
o deeper waters farther out to sea where these
boats cannot follow.
Peruvian
 producers say they have invested more than Dollars 200m in the past
two yea
rs in fleet renovation and plant and equipment modernisation ashore.
The ind
ustry is moving towards production of higher-quality, low
temperature, steam
-dried meal with 'stickwater' plants to maximise protein
recovery. New boats
 with refrigerated holds are under construction in local
yards. But there's 
still plenty of room, and a warm welcome waiting, for new
investment from ab
road.
Representatives from Chile's huge Angelini group have been in Peru rec
ently
on 'feeling-out' visits. And Venezuelan capital has already entered in
 the
form of a new fishmeal joint venture under the name of Palangrera Perua
na.
But the big surprise of 1993 could be the arrival of the Chinese. Pesca

Peru, the state-owned fishmeal and fishoil giant that produces around 40 per

cent of all national output, is high on this year's privatisation list.
Coo
pers and Lybrand, with financing from the Canadian development agency and
th
e World Bank, is currently completing a valuation and will recommend on
sale
 procedures.
Essentially, the choice is between splitting the company into i
ts 20 plants
and four refineries to sell off individually; or selling the wh
ole company
as one unit.
The only likely buyers on the latter basis would be
 the Chinese - 'and it's
a possibility that has the private producers in a s
tate of panic', says Mr
Eric Topf, head of the Pesca Peru privatisation comm
ittee.
Unofficially, senior Pesca Peru officials say the company should fetc
h 'at
least Dollars 200m', a ball-park figure considered over-optimistic by

private producers.
The state-owned plants are, by and large, elderly and out
dated - though
several are excellently located on the now-desirable extreme 
southern coast
and have their own quays. Drastic personnel reductions during
 1992 put Pesca
Peru back into profit after years in the red, underlining ju
st how
profitable producing fishmeal can be, even from scrap-yard plants.
Ch
ina has established itself as far and away Peru's largest customer, buying
l
ast year almost 60 per cent of all output. Peruvian fishmeal goes to feed
th
e Pacific prawn, turbot and eel which China is successfully exporting in
qua
ntity to the US and Japan.
The Chinese are said to be producing at present s
ome 32m tonnes of animal
foodstuffs a year, in which they use 2 per cent fis
hmeal - a very low
percentage compared with most competitors. A high-level P
eruvian delegation
is now in China 'to try to convince them of the bounties 
of boosting that
fishmeal component,' says Mr Salomon Manzur, Peruvian presi
dent of the
Fishmeal Exporters' Association.
If the Chinese do increase the 
percentage of fishmeal in their current
animal feedstuff production, Peruvia
n producers will be assured of sales for
their expanded fishmeal output for 
several years to come.
 ----------------------------------------------------
-
FISHMEAL PRODUCTION ('000 TONNES)
 ---------------------------------------
--------------
                     1990    1991    1992
 ------------------
-----------------------------------
Peruvian
Pesca Peru            379     4
98     513
Private sector        755     782     853
Total               1,1
34   1,280   1,366
 -----------------------------------------------------
Ch
ilean                     1,550   1,210
 -----------------------------------
------------------
Source: Peruvian National Fishing Society (SNP).
 -------
----------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX
>
<CN>PEZ  Peru, South America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P0919 Misc
ellaneous Marine Products.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>MKTS  Production.
</
TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 26 </PAGE>
</DOC>

The search selected the 5th record in the ranked list (FT922-643) and
entered "floods, Bolivia" on his worksheet. The selected record
was:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-643</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFZBBAD9FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>92062
6
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  26 JUN 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Flooded Bo
livian farmers on hunger strike </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By FRANCIS FREISINGE
R </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    SANTA CRUZ </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
THE BOLIVIAN Eastern
 Farmers Chamber (CAO) has declared an indefinite hunger
strike in protest a
t the lack of government aid in the wake of the
agricultural disaster that h
as struck the Santa Cruz department as a result
of months of flooding. Peasa
nt groups have announced other measures in
support of the CAO - including ro
ad blocks - and a regional general strike
may follow.
Santa Cruz in the east
 of the country, which produces 90 per cent of
Bolivia's agricultural export
s, principally soyabeans and sugar, has been
devastated since January by the
 worst floods in living memory. At least a
third and possibly as much as hal
f the crop has been lost already and the
sowing of the next crop has been se
riously disrupted, the losses will
continue for another harvest. At least Do
llars l00m has been lost to date, a
vast sum for Bolivia. As a result there 
will be a marked reduction in GNP
growth this year according to economists.

Nearly a hundred farmers from the CAO have joined the hunger strike,
includi
ng some of the wealthiest men in the country, and as many as 500 more
are po
ised to follow. In a remarkable development, the hardline right-wing
farmers
 have literally become bedfellows with their traditional enemy, the
Bolivian
 Workers' Central (COB), the national union confederation which
still adhere
s, at least in theory, to a revolutionary Marxist ideology. Some
of COB lead
ers have joined the hunger strike and are now sleeping in the
same room as t
he farmers.
The farmers are calling for much more direct government and inte
rnational
assistance as well as rescheduling of loans from both private bank
s and
multinational institutions, principally the Inter-American Development
 Bank.
They are demanding special help for the smaller farmers, worst hit
fi
nancially because of their lack of access to credit, as a result of which
th
ousands face bankruptcy. The CAO President, Mr Sergio Justiniano said: 'We
w
ill remain on hunger strike until a global solution is found'.
The flooding 
is partly the result of exceptionally heavy rains that have
accompanied the 
El Nino cyclical Pacific weather phenomenon, which has also
brought flooding
 this year to Peru and Ecuador. However, according to
ecologists, the effect
 has been exacerbated in Bolivia by the extensive
deforestation that has acc
ompanied the agricultural boom of the past few
years
Despite officially decl
aring the region a disaster zone, the government
claims that it is unable to
 help. Mr Hugo Lozino, minister of peasant
development said: 'We have done w
hat we can. Bolivia is a poor country and
can't afford to do more'.
It seems
 unlikely, however, that the government will be able to resist the
powerful 
alliance confronting it, especially as it faces unrest in other key
sectors,
 including mining.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pag
e 30 </PAGE>
</DOC>


The searcher then deselected the record (#5 above) and then reselected
it at 17:25:36.

The searcher then deselected and reselected 
the first record selected at 17:26:22

The search then changed the display format to the "long" format
(which displays the full text of the articles) at 17:26:27
and read some of the text of record #6 (FT921-5191)
The searcher (not a native English speaker) asked the researcher
what "shells out", a phrase appearing in the headline of the article
meant. The researcher responded that it means "to pay for".
He switched back to the review format at 17:26:42.
At 17:27:05 the searcher noted record #6 of the ranked list
and recorded "overshrimping Ecuador", and selected the following record at
17:27:23:


<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-5191</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CCEBQAC7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9203
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 MAR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Ecuador s
hells out on shrimp farming - The consequences of declining fish stocks and 
over-investment </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SARITA KENDALL </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
E
cuador's shrimp farming business had another record year in 1991 as the gap

with other fishing exports widened.
Groups within the industry, unwilling to
 acknowledge over-fishing, accuse
each other of irrational practices or blam
e dwindling catches on climate and
ocean currents.
'We've seen this happen i
n other countries - with herring in the North Sea,
and anchovy in Peru,' sai
d Mr Ian Scott, the economist in charge of
Britain's technical assistance pr
ogramme for the fishing sector.
'There's been over-investment. If the Ecuado
rian fleet fishes for 150 days a
year at 50 per cent efficiency, it can catc
h 3m tonnes - but the sustainable
stock of pelagic fish is only 500,000 to 1
m tonnes.'
In the last few years fishermen supplying the fishmeal and cannin
g
industries have seen a drastic drop in the harvest of sardines, mackerel,

thread herring and anchovies: the catch fell from 1,970,000 tonnes in 1985
t
o 233,000 tonnes in 1990, leaving many processing plants working at less
tha
n 20 per cent of capacity.
Mr Scott said that although the warm southward-fl
owing El Nino current was
responsible for two bad years, the general decline
 was due to over-fishing
and licences and quota systems were needed to help 
stocks recover.
The tuna industry, centred in Manta, is also overblown, but 
the catch has
remained stable at 50,000 to 55,000 tonnes a year.
Both Ecuado
rian and foreign boats fish for tuna. Local fishermen criticise
the fact tha
t boats registered in the US, Japan and other countries are
contracted by Ma
nta processing companies. However, it is argued that only
some of the vessel
s in the national fleet can freeze tuna to -40C, the
temperature necessary f
or good quality exports.
The under-secretary for fishing, Mr Max Aguirre, is
 proud of Ecuador's
record on the dolphin-tuna issue. 'The Ecuadorian law is
 strict. Ecuadorian
and foreign boats have their licences taken away if they
 fish on dolphins. I
report with satisfaction that in 43 trips with observer
s on board there were
zero dolphin deaths.'
Mr Aguirre admits that research 
studies warned of sardine fishing problems,
and says regional controls, incl
uding Peru and Chile, should be enforced.
'Licences should regulate the catc
h with reference to the resource.'
However, the private sector has been too 
powerful and the government too
timid to allow any quota-based management of
 stocks.
The fish sector earned about USDollars 570m in 1991, with shrimps
c
ontributing more than 85 per cent. There are more than 125,000 hectares of
s
hrimp ponds along the tidal flats of the Ecuadorian coastline, mainly in
the
 southern provinces. Most shrimp farms are less than 50 hectares, though
the
 largest - up to as much as 2,000 hectares  - tend to be the most
sophistica
ted. Some use small aircraft to drop feed over the surface of the
ponds.
Shr
imp farms produce all year round so close to the equator and two to three
ha
rvests can be taken. With an ideal climate, plentiful larvae and
low-labour 
costs, Ecuador is the leading Latin American shrimp exporter.
'Our problem a
t the moment is the big jump in the cost of inputs. The dollar
price of shri
mps has dropped and so has profitability,' said Mr Renato del
Campo of the C
hamber of Shrimp Producers in Guayaquil. 'But there are
markets - the US is 
still attractive and we are diversifying into Europe,
especially Spain.'
Exp
orts have risen from 10,000 tonnes in 1980 to more than 78,000 tonnes in
199
1, and the need for more space and more larvae has led to conflict with
envi
ronmental groups, particularly over the clearing of mangroves.
Most shrimps 
are bred from wild larvae caught by thousands of seasonal
fishermen, but mor
e than 100 laboratories have been started up in recent
years, with some expo
rting larvae to Colombia.
Although the shrimp fishing industry is small, acc
ounting for less than 10
per cent of production, wild shrimp provide importa
nt breeding stocks for
the laboratories.
The sector expanded dangerously fas
t - from about 2,000 to 9,000 boats  - in
the 1980s and over-fishing is beco
ming a serious problem within a few miles
of the coast. Many of the boats ar
e dug-out canoes based in small
communities.
'We need to teach people to tak
e better care of the fish, then they'll also
improve their income. There sho
uld be ice available, and we need to
encourage marketing co-operatives,' sai
d Mr Aguirre.
The British aid project, which is now ending after 12 years, h
as helped the
National Fisheries Institute to build up data on biology, prod
uct
development, marketing and management.
Ecuador has a stronger basis for 
planning resource use than many other
countries. 'There isn't any room for g
rowth in the existing industry - it
needs reducing and consolidating,' said 
Mr. Scott.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 30 </P
AGE>
</DOC>


The searcher then switched back to the long display format at 17:27:47
and viewed the full text of records #7 and #8. He then switched back
to the review format at 17:29:08.
The user noted record #7 (FT922-14235) on his worksheet and 
at 17:29:22 he selected record #7:


<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-14235</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CDHB2AAMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
407
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 APR 92 / Drought pulls the plug on much of Col
ombia </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SARITA KENDALL </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    BOGO
TA </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
POWER cuts of at least eight hours a day have been imp
osed all over Colombia
in an effort to cope with a drought that has reduced 
the water for hydro
electric plants. There is little prospect of rain, and r
eservoirs are drying
into baked mud. If this continues the country could fac
e a complete
black-out by the end of April.
The winter rains are late and th
e El Nino current off the Pacific coast
appears to be upsetting normal weath
er patterns. But bad planning, heavy
debts, corruption, budget deficits, def
orestation and poor management are
behind the electricity problems.
Colombia
's generating capacity is 8,200MW, more than adequate for normal
demand leve
ls. Despite the country's ample coal and oil reserves, 78 per
cent of power 
comes from large, expensive hydro-electric schemes which have
pushed the sec
tor's foreign debt up to more than Dollars 5bn.
To try to save on costs, ele
ctricity companies have been running down the
reservoirs rather than use the
rmal plants at full capacity. Labour and
financial problems have also delaye
d the maintenance of thermal power
stations, while guerrilla attacks have pu
t distribution lines out of action.
The rationing aims to cut overall consum
ption by about a third. The
government has asked industry to shut down for 1
0 days over Easter and to
send workers on holiday.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financia
l Times </PUB>
<PAGE> International Page 6 </PAGE>
</DOC>

The search then scrolled through records #9-#12, and at
17:29:55 the next 12 records were automatically fetched from the 
server and added to the display

The search changed the display format to "long" at  17:30:10.
and read more of record #9, the searcher noted "drought, S. Africa,
sugar" on his worksheet and at 17:31:48, the searcher selected
record #9:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-12623</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CDPBOADHFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
416
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 APR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Supply f
ears buoy sugar prices </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAVID BLACKWELL </BYLINE>

<TEXT>
FEARS OF a tighter sugar supply/demand balance in 1992-93 are support
ing the
world market, according to reports from two London trade houses.
Raw
 sugar prices have recently touched eight-month highs, nudging 10 cents a
lb
 in the New York market, on fears of tight nearby supplies following
damage 
to the South African crop because of drought.
The trade houses, ED & F. Man 
and Czarnikow, both point out in reports
published today that in the short t
erm the changing export potential in
several countries will keep the lid on 
prices. The increasing likelihood of
a 1m-tonne increase in Thailand's crop,
 compared with the previous season,
together with the availability of export
able surpluses from India and Cuba,
should 'keep significant advances at bay
', Man's latest sugar report says.
Man believes that reports of a catastroph
ic Cuban crop this season at 5m to
5.5m tonnes are unsupported by the eviden
ce and estimates that the crop will
come in at about 6.5m tonnes. It is fore
casting a crop of more than 5m
tonnes in Thailand and 12.6m tonnes in India.

The overall balance for the 1991-92 season remains marginally in surplus,
M
an says, but it suggests that the situation is likely to be even more
tightl
y balanced in 1992-93.
Czarnikow's sugar review points out that the extent o
f the South African
drought has raised questions about the timing and covera
ge of the El Nino
weather phenomenon.
'Already a major drought is developing
 in Thailand which, if relief does not
arrive this month, could have serious
 implications for the next crop,' the
Czarnikow review says. 'If this is par
t of a regional phenomenon there might
be problems later in the year with th
e monsoon in India and this will need
to be monitored carefully.'
</TEXT>
<P
UB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 38 </PAGE>
</DOC>

The search select the "save selected records" option at 17:33:22, and
all selected records were saved 17:33:22.

The search then formulated and submitted a new search using a combined
ranked and boolean strategy at 17:33:31. 
The searcher left the initial query in the "Ranked Search" box (i.e.,
"el nino climate effects") and selected the title index from the popup
list of boolean indexes for one boolean search box, then entered
"el nino" as the value to search. In the second boolean search box
the searcher selected the title index and entered "effect".

This search retrieved no results, and the "zero hits" message was
displayed at 17:33:39

The user then reformulated the query by eliminating the "effect" portion
of the previous query and resubmitted the search at 17:33:44. This
search retrieved three (3) records which were downloaded and displayed to
the user at 17:33:49. 

The user switched to the review display format at 17:33:59.  At
17:34:10 the user selected record #2 (FT921-10204) of this new result
set and noted "global effects, agriculture" on his worksheet:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-10204</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBGA3ACSFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
207
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Keeping 
a weather-eye on a troublesome 'child' / A look at the crop problems posed b
y the unpredictable El Nino climate phenomenon </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By BA
RBARA DURR </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
TO CALM anxious grain traders the Chicago Board 
of Trade will offer a
seminar later this month on El Nino, the weather pheno
menon that develops in
the equatorial Pacific every three to five years and 
can cause global
climate upsets. Grain traders are keen to know if they can 
expect this
year's El Nino to disturb the US weather pattern sufficiently to
 make a dent
in crop output.
Although signs of El Nino had been accumulating
 during 1991, only last month
did the the US National Weather Service finall
y conclude publicly that the
phenomenon was a fact.
The symptoms had been sh
owing themselves overseas since last spring - rising
surface temperatures in
 the eastern and central Pacific, drought in the
western Pacific rim from Au
stralia through Indonesia, a weaker Indian
monsoon, dryness in north-eastern
 Brazil, drought in South Africa and
wetness last summer in the Great Basin 
of the US, which runs from Arizona
north to Idaho.
While many of these condi
tions indicate that El Nino is occurring, they do
not reveal its severity. T
he phenomenon generally peaks in the northern
hemisphere's winter. This help
s explain why Peruvian fishermen dubbed the
phenomenon El Nino, which means 
Christ child in Spanish. It arrived about
Christmas time.
Mr Vernon Kousky, 
a research meteorologist with the US weather service, now
assesses the curre
nt El Nino as 'moderate to strong'. While individual
weather events cannot a
lways be directly attributed to El Nino, some signals
are indicative of its 
strength. Warm water in the Pacific is pushing
moisture into the south-weste
rn US, causing, for example, this winter's
floods in Texas, according to Mr 
Art Douglas, chairman of the Creighton
University's Atmospheric Sciences Dep
artment. Along the Gulf of Mexico, from
Texas to Florida, some areas have al
ready had 200 per cent to 1,000 per cent
of their normal rainfall. Temperatu
res in that region are also beginning to
dip below normal. At the same time 
the phenomenon is upsetting the Jet
Stream, keeping extremely cold air far t
o the north and moderating
temperatures in the Midwest.
The Midwest, America
's most important grain area, is seeing temperatures
four or five degrees Fa
hrenheit above normal, said Mr Jon Davis, the
in-house meteorologist for She
arson Lehman's commodities trading arm. The
weather service predicts that mo
re of the same will occur in those regions
until spring and that the usually
 wet north-west is likely to be dryer, as
is the Ohio valley.
But what conce
rns the grain trade more is what, if anything, will happen
during the critic
al planting and growing season for American crops from June
to August.
Unfor
tunately, weather forecasting is not a precise science. Mr Kousky says
that 
El Nino, usually a 12 to 18 month event, has another six to 12 months
to run
. But he points out that there is no consistent relationship between
El Nino
 and the weather pattern beyond the winter-to-spring months.
'Anything can h
appen,' he admits.
Crop Cast, a Maryland-based weather forecasting service t
hat is used by many
US commodity trading houses, says that while El Nino has
 already affected
South American soyabeans, South African maize and Australi
an wheat, it is
hoping to be able to predict potentially damaging crop effec
ts in the US by
looking at the coincidence of the El Nino with two other cli
matological
events, last year's eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Phillippin
es and the
combination of lunar and solar cycles.
These additional factors a
long with El Nino probably mean that a more
extreme weather pattern bleeds o
ver into summer, according to Mr Kevin
Marcus, director of Crop Cast service
s. He says the likelihood of extreme,
hot and dry weather is 100 per cent, b
ut gives only a one in three chance
that this will have a significant impact
 on crops.
The hot, dry weather would have to occur in July or early August 
to reduce
the maize and soyabean crops significantly, that is by more than 1
0 per
cent. But Mr Marcus is uncertain about how the three phenomena will in
teract
since there no established pattern. He is still waiting for more data
 on the
severity of this year's El Nino.
The phenomenon has prompted commodi
ties markets to gyrate in the past. In
1972-73 the El Nino destroyed the Per
uvian fishmeal catch, which then
accounted for some 45 per cent of the world
 trade in protein feed. In
1982-83 it caused a drought in Africa, which help
ed to send cocoa prices up
by nearly 70 per cent over a period of about a ye
ar.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 22 </PAGE>
</
DOC>

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