DATE.....: Thursday December 02, 1999
NUMBER...: 5-44896
TITLE....: RUSSIA / WHAT NEXT?
TYPE.....: BACKGROUND REPORT
BYLINE...: ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE.: WASHINGTON
KEY......: 799238
CONTENT..:
 
VOICED AT:
 
// Eds: This is the last in an eight-part series on
Russia.  Among the issues discussed: Western policies
toward Moscow, I-M-F loans, corruption and President
Boris Yeltsin's legacy. //
 
INTRO: In a few days (December 19th), Russians go to
the polls to elect a new parliament and next June,
will vote for a new president, officially ending the
tenure of Boris Yeltsin.  In this last of eight
reports on Russia, former V-O-A Moscow correspondent
Andre de Nesnera looks at what the West can do to help
Russia as it moves into a new political era.
 
TEXT:  As another year comes to a close, one tends to
look back on specific achievements and failures in any
given area.  For American experts on Russia, this sort
of retrospective has come under the form of a
question: "Who lost Russia?"
 
The overwhelming response from experts representing
all shades of the political spectrum has been: "Russia
was not ours to lose." But the question has raised
issues which analysts and policymakers have tried to
address: has the West been too close to Russian
President Boris Yeltsin?  Has the International
Monetary Fund been too lax in its lending policy
toward Moscow? And have Western economic policies
hindered or helped Russian development?
 
As one turns to the year 2000, American experts on
Russia are asking whether the West should continue to
help Russia - and if so, in what form?
 
Mike McFaul - a Russia expert with the Carnegie
Institute - believes American aid to Russia has
essentially gone to the state - and that should
change.
 
            /// McFAUL ACT ///
 
      We should have a refocus of our attention, to
      devote much more resources to non-governmental
      organizations, to societal organizations: small
      business loans, civic groups, public interest
      law firms rather than giving money to the state
      to reform. Because ultimately, I believe that it
      is only when society is strong enough to demand
      that the state reforms, will you get real
      reform. And so my focus would be more on the
      Russian people and less on the Russian state.
 
            /// END ACT ///
 
One of the major consequences of the demise of the
Soviet Union in 1991 was that Moscow lost its super-
power status, almost overnight. A power rivaling the
United States on the world stage was no more - and
that has created a lot of resentment in many parts of
Russia.
 
Former U-S National Security Adviser General Brent
Scowcroft, says since the collapse of the Soviet
Union, the United States has had a tendency to preach
to Moscow. He says it is time to treat Russia on an
equal footing and engage its leaders in serious
discussions on world matters.
 
            /// SCOWCROFT ACT ///
 
      Psychologically, it would give them the sense
      that they still matter, that their views are
      important and that we are considering them.
      Instead, they could easily get the impression
      that all these bad things are happening to them
      because they are weak - and that the solution to
      their problems is to be strong again. We do not
      need to go in that direction again.
 
            /// END ACT ///
 
Many analysts say the West should be far more
understanding in its future dealings with Moscow -
and, for example, not force its economic policies on
Russia, as it has done in the past.
 
Wayne Merry - a former American diplomat based in
Moscow - says it is time for the West to give Russia
some breathing room.
 
            /// MERRY ACT ///
 
      We should be much more willing to let the
      Russians find their own answers, because
      ultimately, those are the only answers that will
      work. No imported ideology or approach is going
      to be very successful. And we should certainly
      get away from this business of trying to see
      Russia as a laboratory for experimentation by
      American academics or American policymakers and
      try to remake it in some way.
 
            /// END ACT ///
 
Mr. Merry says such attempts inevitably fail.
 
As next year's Russian presidential elections draw
nearer, many experts are urging American policymakers
to stay away from backing any candidate.  That is the
view of Sergei Khruschev - son of former Soviet leader
Nikita Khruschev.
 
            /// KHRUSCHEV ACT ///
 
      I remember when my father in Vienna (Summit-June
      1961) told President (John F) Kennedy that in
      the past elections I was on your side. And
      Kennedy answered him: "I was lucky that
      Americans did not know this." So it is the same
      in these Russian elections.
 
            /// END ACT ///
 
Next year, Americans will also vote for a new
president, casting their ballots in November. Many
experts say any new impetus in Russian-American
relations will come only after both administrations
are firmly in place: at the earliest, in mid-2001.
(Signed)
 
NEB/ADEN/KL
 
 
 
02-Dec-1999 14:21 PM EDT (02-Dec-1999 1921 UTC)
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