FXUS04 KWBC 260653 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 252 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID SEP 27/1200 UTC THRU SEP 28/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR FL/COASTAL SERN U.S.... THE OFFICIAL TPC FCST TRACK FOR HRCN JEANNE AND MOST OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARDS THE NW TODAY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING OFF THE MID ATL COAST AND INTO THE WRN ATL. SIMILAR TO PREV MODEL CYCLES...THE ETA'S QPF LOOKS WAY UNDERDONE GIVEN THE PRESENT WELL DEFINED NATURE OF THE PCPN ASSOC WITH JEANNE. DAY 1 QPF AMTS ARE CLOSER TO THE GFS. A BROAD REGION OF HVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DAY 1 ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE FROM CNTRL FL NWD INTO NRN FL/SRN GA...WITH AMTS IN THE 5-8" RANGE LIKELY. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD...PCPN WL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE CNTR OF JEANNE AS A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WL DEVELOP ACRS THE SERN U.S. INTO THE SRN MID ATL WHERE MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WL BE STRENGTHENING SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. SRN HIGH PLAINS... NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS OF QPF ACRS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WL CONT TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND WRN TX AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG AREA OF HT FALLS ACRS NRN MEXICO AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. MANUAL DAY 1 QPF IS EMPHASIZING AREAS FROM INVOF THE BIG BEND NWWD ALONG THE PECOS RIVER FOR MAX QPF. THIS AREA CORRESPONDS TO WHERE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BEST UPR DIFFLUENCE EARLY DAY 1 FOR PRESENT ENHANCING CONVECTION OVR SWRN TX TO PUSH EWD...AND WHERE MODELS THEN TRACK ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY EWD SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. AREAL AVG .50-1" AMTS ARE DEPICTED...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVIER AMTS. NRN ROCKIES/PAC NW... SHRTWV ENERGY PRESENTLY MOVG INTO SRN OR EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING MID LEVEL HTS TO THE NORTH OVR SWRN CAN. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHRTWV THAN THE ETA. THIS LOOKS BETTER GIVEN LATEST SATL TRENDS. PREFERRED THE GFS' DEPICTION OF AT LEAST SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS VORT ACRS CNTRL TO ERN OR...EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ATTM...AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS ARE DEPICTED UNDER .25"..BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY AMTS. NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY.... FAST MOVG AREA OF MID LEVEL HT FALLS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACRS CNTRL CAN WL HELP PUSH A SFC CDFNT SEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY DAY 1. SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP PCPN AMTS LIGHT. DAY 2... ...SOUTHEAST/MID ATL... DRAWN NWD BY THE UPR RIDGE TO ITS E...TROPICAL CYCLONE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NWD FROM ERN GA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...STRONG ONSHORE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST PCPN JUST N OF THE CTR. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...ANTICIPATE THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO FOUND W OF THE CTR AS STRONG ELY FLOW N OF THE CTRL FOCUSES THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE ONTO THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SRN/CTRL APPALACHIANS. OVERALL...THE QPF IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS AMTS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK. SCALED DOWN AMTS OVER THE NRN MID ATL...WHERE THE GFS APPEARS TO DEVELOP SOME FEEDBACK PROBLEMS EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT PCPN UP THRU THE MID ATL AS IT PULLS MOISTURE ONSHORE. ...WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN ROCKIES VIA THE NRN/CTRL PLAINS... SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA/GFS EVOLVE THIS PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE UPR TROF DROPPING SEWD OUT OF CAN INTO THE N CTRL U.S. THE ETA APPEARS TO BE THE RELATIVE OUTLIER HERE...PROGRESSING THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF THRU THE UPR GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VLY. THE GFS/UKMET/CAN GLOBAL ALL SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS THE TAIL END OF THE TROF BACK ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/NRN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...AND THE TREND OF THOSE THREE MODELS TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...PREFERRED THE GFS. ...SRN PLAINS... REPLENISHED BY PERSISTENT ELY FLOW...A FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT A POORLY DEFINED UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AS WITH THE TROF TO THE N...THE ETA IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE UPR CTR OUT TOWARDS THE LWR MS VLY. THE GFS/UKMET/CAN GLOBAL ALL AGREE ON A SLOWER SOLUTION. THE TRENDS HOWEVER ARE SUPPORTING A MOVE TOWARDS THE FASTER ETA. THAT SAID...OPTED FOR A MODEL BLEND...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER CONSENSUS. ORAVEC/PEREIRA GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 27/12Z 0.01 456198 462153 466148 479142 489129 486093 472060 465018 469993 488976 512929 507871 491818 478819 463843 439909 438951 431989 425021 432039 441048 444052 446057 447060 445064 441068 439074 439089 435099 433105 433113 440117 442121 441129 438133 435137 432141 431145 430149 435160 440169 441176 438181 432188 429188 426190 422192 420197 419206 420212 422218 424222 428227 433228 440230 449227 455221 456198 0.01 370767 368760 365753 360744 357740 353738 349738 344740 323755 311766 303772 295776 278781 271782 266783 256790 250794 244800 241804 240808 239818 239835 239845 241851 244854 249860 257862 268859 273857 277858 291862 300862 306861 310858 318855 325850 341836 347830 353822 362804 368788 371775 370767 0.01 381057 378053 375049 372046 371042 371037 375014 372009 369004 369997 366990 358987 351986 346987 339987 335984 327979 306979 301978 295979 285983 279983 276980 272972 265965 260963 255962 249963 246965 243969 242974 242979 243986 248994 253000 256011 260023 260028 263032 266041 271050 277059 282066 296075 305081 310085 312089 315090 318088 321086 327081 335075 346071 356072 364072 370068 375065 381057 0.25 353765 349763 344764 340766 329774 321778 312782 300785 287786 274788 267792 261797 254805 251812 249817 247824 247829 250835 255840 263845 270847 277848 287850 295852 301853 309851 316847 321844 328838 331832 333826 335819 338812 344800 350787 352780 354775 354767 353765 0.25 347017 345010 342007 338004 333002 330001 325003 316006 305007 297005 289997 285994 282994 273998 272007 271015 271022 271029 273035 279041 286047 294053 302057 307059 313059 319055 329049 335045 343024 347017 0.50 342782 336782 331783 319788 307791 296791 285791 279791 273794 267798 263802 259811 255821 254825 256832 259836 263839 272844 293847 297849 303849 315844 319841 323836 328827 334804 338791 342782 0.50 330022 328018 325016 320016 306012 299011 294008 285999 281004 278010 278017 279025 281032 285037 290040 293045 300047 307046 313043 318039 322035 326028 330022 1.00 328811 324798 316796 302800 280797 272800 267805 265812 265821 267828 271835 276838 289844 297846 304845 313842 316839 318835 325822 328811 1.00 296024 297021 295018 292016 290015 289015 288018 290020 291021 292024 294024 295025 296024 1.50 322816 321811 319808 313806 306807 301806 296803 290801 284800 278800 272803 268808 268815 269824 274831 277834 283839 288841 294843 300844 309841 312839 315836 318831 321823 322816 2.00 319824 319819 318815 314812 303810 295805 285802 280802 274804 271809 270814 271822 275828 283835 287838 291840 296841 302841 310838 315833 317828 319824 3.00 316822 310817 301814 295810 288806 283805 278808 276812 275817 278825 284831 290836 293838 299838 307836 310834 314830 316826 316822 4.00 311827 311822 308819 302817 298816 292811 287809 283810 281813 280819 281824 284828 288833 292835 299835 306834 310828 311827 5.00 309825 307822 305821 302819 299819 294817 292814 288812 285812 283815 282819 284824 288830 290832 294833 297833 303833 308829 309825 6.00 307826 305823 303822 301821 300821 296820 294821 293821 291818 289816 289815 286814 284818 285821 287823 288826 290829 294830 294831 296830 299832 300832 303831 304830 305829 307826 7.00 301828 300825 298824 297826 299829 301828 24HR QP VT 28/12Z 0.01 494811 494805 492800 484805 480810 475816 474818 472818 468815 456825 448822 444823 440828 435840 430853 425868 421879 414893 410904 407911 405917 404923 402929 398940 394951 391957 388964 382973 373983 364991 358993 352994 347992 343989 328975 323973 318974 314976 307981 282979 273976 267975 261977 258980 257986 258993 259999 272019 278028 283038 285043 289047 295054 305059 313062 321064 329065 343064 349065 357068 365073 369079 372085 375090 379090 383089 386083 389083 392084 397081 402076 412077 415080 416083 419089 421096 425101 429104 434108 445112 451113 455117 457124 460130 485139 489141 492140 491135 487130 481125 475121 475115 478105 476098 471086 469081 465077 460073 457065 450054 449045 446037 445032 445028 447022 450005 451999 453991 457963 461946 465931 473901 477887 481875 485860 488852 489847 491837 493831 493827 494811 0.01 429754 426747 422742 418738 413736 405735 396735 384737 373740 364742 355745 342749 330756 315770 309773 305778 303783 298786 287791 277797 269804 263812 261817 260821 261827 265833 267837 274837 278836 287837 296840 303844 307850 309857 311861 314864 318866 323867 328869 335867 344860 351853 359844 365836 368833 372831 375828 378825 383822 390813 396805 399800 405796 423779 425778 427773 429767 429754 0.01 340095 339092 338089 337085 337082 337078 336075 335075 333077 330078 329078 330080 331082 332085 332088 332089 334092 335095 338098 340095 0.01 270791 268788 265786 259786 254789 245795 240800 236808 234815 235821 237826 240828 244827 248822 251821 252817 255816 259808 264801 269795 270791 0.25 418769 417762 414758 407757 399759 394758 380753 373752 367751 359751 352753 344757 337762 317783 308788 303793 294804 290811 290816 291821 296827 301831 307835 312840 316850 319855 326856 335853 343850 348847 354842 359835 369825 378819 383812 392800 398794 406788 412782 416776 418769 0.25 440905 436903 433908 428917 420935 411954 406963 402971 397982 395991 392002 391010 394014 400013 405011 410006 417998 422990 426979 430969 437948 439942 440937 441926 440905 0.25 345017 345011 342007 336002 328998 318996 309995 301993 292991 287991 282993 279996 279001 282009 292024 297031 298037 299040 302043 307045 312052 316053 322053 326051 327048 329041 329035 331031 335029 338027 341024 345017 0.50 412769 409766 406766 399766 394766 387764 381761 375759 369757 363756 356757 350758 342763 338766 319788 311793 306798 300808 298816 300822 304827 308830 312834 317844 320849 322851 326852 343846 351842 354838 359831 364826 376816 386805 390798 394794 402788 407783 411775 412769 0.50 314013 314008 311003 308001 305000 299000 294001 291002 292005 294008 298011 301014 306017 309017 311016 314013 1.00 397781 393776 389774 380770 371769 363767 358766 352767 346770 341774 327789 324794 320798 317801 315805 310817 310821 312827 318838 320841 324844 329845 335844 346840 351836 355832 360825 366820 369817 376807 384800 390791 395785 397781 1.50 389781 386777 382776 374779 365782 358780 348783 340787 333794 326800 321806 318814 315821 315824 316829 321836 323839 326841 334840 343838 348836 352833 355827 359823 363820 368814 372806 377800 383793 387786 389781 2.00 378794 378790 373789 368791 359794 354793 345796 340797 327806 322819 318824 320830 324837 328839 332837 337837 345834 349833 352829 354824 358821 362819 366814 374800 378794 3.00 372797 370796 367798 365800 364801 363803 361806 361809 360810 362811 365811 367808 368807 369805 371802 372800 372797 3.00 354817 352810 349808 345806 340807 335810 332812 334818 335821 335825 337829 340830 343828 345824 347822 350821 354817 4.00 367805 369802 368801 366803 366804 367805 `$$