|
|
|
|
|
|
April 1, 2002
Syria’s 2001/02 wheat production is estimated at a record at 4.5 million tons, due to good rainfall and suitable temperatures last fall. However, last month, the 2001/02 barley production estimate was cut from 1.7 million to 1.3 million tons, with the final barley output below the 1995/96 record of 1.7 million tons. Current winter wheat and barley production prospects in Syria are favorable, but final production and yield estimates for marketing year (MY) 2002/03 will be largely determined by the rainfall received during the head development and grain-filling stages from March through May.
The current wheat crop has entered the heading stage (Figure 1). The northern and northeastern part of the country (along the Turkish-Syrian border) received average winter precipitation October to March. Surface and subsurface soil moisture reserves in the crucial northern rainfed regions (seasonal soil moisture maps and graphs) decreased last month, due to low amounts of rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures from late February to present. In addition, seasonal rainfall has been below average for the irrigated regions in the south and southwest. Irrigation can make up for these water deficits.
Figure 1. Approximate Winter Wheat Crop Stage in the Middle East
Vegetative vigor for the current growing season is lower than last year (Figure 2), but this resulted from last year's crop breaking dormancy earlier than usual, due to warmer than normal temperatures experienced during last winter. Vegetative vigor or “greenness” is measured by NOAA-16 satellite data collected and processed into Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) composites. NDVI satellite composites can easily compare the vegetative vigor between two growing seasons by subtracting the current NDVI image from the long-term average or previous year NDVI images (Figure 2).
In general, Syrian wheat and barley production is largely influenced by seasonal rainfall amounts and distribution between October and May, and corresponding fluctuations of water levels in the Euphrates River. Rainfall variations in amounts and temporal distribution can cause substantial shifts in crop production due to changes in crop harvested area and yields. Barley is especially vulnerable to seasonal rainfall fluctuations because it is almost entirely produced under rainfed conditions, with only one percent of the crop irrigated. Wheat in Syria is less vulnerable to seasonal rainfall variability because about 40 percent the wheat crop is irrigated.
Most of Syria's wheat is produced in the northeast provinces (Raggah, Hasakah, and Aleppo) bordering Turkey’s wheat belt, central Syria (Hamah province) and to a much lesser extent in the south. Barley production is also concentrated in the north, northeast, and central provinces (Raggah, Hasakah, Aleppo, Hamah, and Homs) of Syria (Figure 3 and crop production maps). Both wheat and barley are planted from October-December. Harvest begins in mid-May and ends in August, but barley is typically harvested 15-days earlier than wheat (crop calendar).
Syria is self-sufficient in wheat production and wheat is the most widely grown arable crop. Wheat is mainly milled into flour for bread production, and the available milling capacity greatly exceeds the milling requirement of the country. The small quantities of wheat imported are typically milled in-country and exported as wheat flour. Most of the wheat grown in Syria is soft wheat, with durum wheat comprising about 25 percent of the crop. Small wheat quantities are also used for bulgur and pasta production, and poor quality wheat is used for animal feed. About 250,000 tons of wheat is typically used for planting the next year's crop.
Barley is the most important feed grain grown in Syria and is used principally as sheep and cattle feed, but sometimes replaces corn in poultry feed rations. Syria is self-sufficient in barley production during average to good crop years, but in poor crop years, barley may be imported. Barley demand also fluctuates from one year to year, with drought years reducing the availability of grass for sheep grazing and correspondingly increasing barley demand and imports for use as animal feed.
Figure 2. Vegetative Vigor Compared Between March 2002 and March 2001.
Figure 3. Major Barley and Wheat Regions in Syria
Other Links:
USDA/FAS/PECAD Weather Data over
Major Crop Regions
http://151.121.3.218/rssiws/
USDA 2002 Annual Grain and Feed
Report for Syria
(with 2002/03 grain outlook estimates)
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200202/135683471.pdf
For more information, contact Curt Reynolds with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0134.
