PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPT 13 2001 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT 2001 . . . . . . . . SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE SOME 0.5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. IN AND OF ITSELF THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL AIR TEMPS ALTHOUGH THE AIR TEMPERATURE HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED TO BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL LATELY. LONG TERM TRENDS AND ALSO CCA INDICATE POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE NORTHERN ISLANDS AND ESPECIALLY HONOLULU WHICH HAS A POTENT CITY EFFECT. FOR PRECIP FORECAST INDICATIONS ARE WEAK OR NON EXISTENT. NOTE OF CAUTION. THE 1971-00 CLIMATOLOGICAL BASE PERIOD MEAN AND TERCILE MONTHLY DATA GIVEN BELOW FOR THE FOUR HI STATIONS MAY BE IN SLIGHT ERROR. WE HOPE TO CORRECT THE SITUATION BY NEXT MONTH AND APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B2 75.8 0.5 CL 7.7 9.2 10.3 KAHULUI CL 78.3 0.5 CL 0.4 0.6 0.8 HONOLULU A4 80.0 0.5 CL 0.3 1.4 2.0 LIHUE A2 78.1 0.4 CL 2.6 3.8 4.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT-NOV-DEC 2001 TO OCT-NOV-DEC 2002 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - WITH A SLIGHT SUGGESTION OF A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OVER THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC BY SPRING 2002. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO ENSO-RELATED PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THIS OUTLOOK. THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS REFLECT THE CURRENT SSTS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS. FOR LONGER LEADS OCN IS A MAIN TOOL ESPECIALLY AT HONOLULU. THERE IS LITTLE SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY COHERENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE TOOLS. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2001 CL 74.2 0.4 CL 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2001 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.4 CL 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.4 CL 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.4 CL 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.4 CL 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2002 CL 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2002 CL 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2002 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4 NDJ 2002 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 25.5 32.9 41.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2001 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2001 CL 73.8 0.5 CL 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2002 CL 72.5 0.5 CL 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.5 CL 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2002 CL 73.2 0.5 CL 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.6 CL 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.6 CL 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2002 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2002 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2002 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2002 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 4.2 5.7 7.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2001 A3 77.3 0.5 CL 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2001 A2 75.0 0.5 CL 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2002 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2002 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2002 CL 74.5 0.4 CL 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2002 A2 76.0 0.4 CL 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2002 A4 77.7 0.4 CL 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2002 A4 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2002 A5 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2002 A4 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2002 A3 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2002 A2 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9 NDJ 2002 A2 75.0 0.5 CL 4.1 6.1 8.7 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2001 A2 75.6 0.3 CL 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2001 CL 73.6 0.3 CL 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2002 CL 73.1 0.4 CL 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.4 CL 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2002 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2002 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2002 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2002 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2002 CL 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2002 CL 75.6 0.3 CL 10.7 13.3 16.2 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 18 2001. NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 OUTLOOK RELEASE. NNNN NNNN