Latest Seasonal Assessment - The drought over the southern Great Plains has expanded westward in recent weeks through much of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Drought conditions are expected to develop across southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico during the next few months, with significant relief projected for central and eastern Oklahoma in the next two weeks. In southeast Colorado, mixed signals between various indicators makes for a lower confidence forecast, though at least some modest improvement appears likely. In the West, several inches of precipitation anticipated in the near-term over California will be beneficial in many respects, but this event is not expected to provide significant mitigation of drought conditions across the state. The only exception is the northwest portion of the state, where some improvement is indicated. Additional storm activity is expected to be concentrated mostly to the north, across the Pacific Northwest during February-April. Typically during late La Niña winters of moderate or strong intensity, the storm activity and the associated Pacific jet stream are focused across the Northwest. However, with a weak La Niña currently in progress and the expectation of weak La Niña or ENSO-Neutral conditions through the next few months, there is increased uncertainty about the location and strength of West coast precipitation events. At least some improvement is predicted for the interior Northwest and north-central states. For the upper Great Lakes area, there is a tilt in the odds towards improvement for southern and western portions of Wisconsin, and eastern Minnesota, with very limited improvement anticipated for northern and eastern areas of Wisconsin. Across the Southeast, rainfall amounts have been on the light side across parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Piedmont areas, along with reduced streamflows. Rainfall for the next few weeks is forecast to barely reach above normal in this region, according to CPC extended-range predictions. Limited improvement is indicated for this area. In Florida, despite recent rain, drought is likely to persist and expand across large portions of the state, which has some support from late winter La Niña composites.

Forecaster: A. Artusa

Next Outlook issued: February 19, 2009 at 8:30 AM EDT