HDR1012000110010109970830CROP PRODUCTION HDR2012000110010109970830HIGHLIGHTS & SUMMARY Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 9, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Crop Production" U.S. Summary is available on Autofax, (202) 720-2000, report 1150. See page 22. Forecasts refer to January 1, 1997. Report features are located at the end of this report. Record Large Orange Production All oranges production for the 1996-97 season is forecast at a record-high 12.5 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast in December and up 6 percent from a year ago. This year's crop is 5 percent larger than the previous record of 11.8 million tons set in the 1979-80 season. Florida's production amounts to 220 million boxes (9.90 million tons), unchanged from December but 8 percent above last season. Florida's all orange, early varieties, and Valencia production forecasts remained unchanged from last month and are each record large crops. Early and mid-season varieties are expected to produce 130 million boxes (5.85 million tons), 7 percent above last year. The Valencia forecast is 90.0 million boxes (4.05 million tons), 10 percent above a year ago. The California all orange production forecast, at 65.0 million boxes (2.44 million tons), is up 3 percent from the previous forecast in October but is 2 percent less than last season. The California Navel orange forecast is 39.0 million boxes (1.46 million tons), up 5 percent from October and up 3 percent from last year's production. The California Valencia forecast is unchanged at 26.0 million boxes (975,000 tons), 7 percent less than last year. All cotton production is forecast at 19.0 million bales, up 1 percent from last month and a 6 percent increase from last year. This is the second largest production on record. Yield is a record high 709 pounds per harvested acre, up 172 pounds from 1995. Production in Texas increased 150,000 bales from December, and the Upland cotton yield of 522 pounds per harvested acre is a record high. Although early season weather caused high abandonment in Texas, favorable growing conditions in late summer and an open harvest period, resulted in large numbers of bolls and high boll weights. Georgia's production was increased 100,000 bales from last month, as yields were better than expected. Cr Pr 2-2 (1-97) Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1996-97 season is forecast at 1.53 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from December. The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The final 1995-96 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.52 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. Projected average yield for 1996-97 early and midseason varieties is 1.48 gallons per box compared to last season's final of 1.45. Valencia yield is projected at 1.62 gallons per box compared to 1.67 last season. This report was approved on January 9, 1996, by the Acting Secretary of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board. Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995 and Forecasted January 1, 1997 (Domestic Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres : : All Cotton : 16,931.4 14,665.5 16,006.7 12,833.4 Upland : 16,716.8 14,407.5 15,795.6 12,577.0 Amer-Pima : 214.6 258.0 211.1 256.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1995 and Forecasted January 1, 1997 (Domestic Units) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre: Production Crop and Unit :--------------------------------------------------- : : : : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ : All Cotton 1/ Bale: 537 709 17,899.8 18,738.1 18,951.4 Upland 1/ " : 533 703 17,532.2 18,197.1 18,418.4 Amer-Pima 1/ " : 836 998 367.6 541.0 533.0 Cottonseed Ton : 6,848.7 7,186.4 7,271.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995 and Forecasted January 1, 1997 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Hectares : : All Cotton : 6,851,970 5,934,980 6,477,750 5,193,550 Upland : 6,765,120 5,830,570 6,392,320 5,089,790 Amer-Pima : 86,850 104,410 85,430 103,760 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1995 and Forecasted January 1, 1997 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Yield per Hectare: Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Metric Tons : All Cotton : 0.60 0.79 3,897,230 4,079,740 4,126,180 Upland : 0.60 0.79 3,817,190 3,961,950 4,010,130 Amer-Pima : 0.94 1.12 80,040 117,790 116,050 Cottonseed : 6,213,040 6,519,390 6,596,410 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary: Production, United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized Production :---------------------------------------------------- Crop : : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Year 1/ : 1995-96 1996-97 1996-97 : : 1,000 Tons Citrus Fruits : Oranges : 11,723 12,380 12,452 Grapefruit : 2,718 3,041 3,064 Lemons 2/ : 992 1,015 988 Tangerines : 348 415 414 Temples (FL) : 97 113 113 Tangelos (FL) : 110 171 171 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 7 7 7 : : Metric Tons : Oranges : 10,634,930 11,230,950 11,296,260 Grapefruit : 2,465,730 2,758,750 2,779,610 Lemons 2/ : 899,930 920,790 896,300 Tangerines : 315,700 376,480 375,570 Temples (FL) : 88,000 102,510 102,510 Tangelos (FL) : 99,790 155,130 155,130 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 6,350 6,350 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ December 1 forecast carried forward from October 1. Crop Summary: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production, United States, 1996-97 (Domestic Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------:---------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Winter Potatoes : 14.5 14.7 14.5 14.7 :---------------------------------------------------- : Yield Per Acre : Production :---------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 :---------------------------------------------------- : ------ Cwt ------ ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- : Winter Potatoes : 226 219 3,273 3,225 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production, United States, 1996-97 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------:---------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Winter Potatoes : 5,870 5,950 5,870 5,950 :---------------------------------------------------- : Yield Per Hectare : Production :---------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 :---------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Winter Potatoes : 25.29 24.58 148,460 146,280 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary: Hay Stocks on Farms, United States, 1994-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Date : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Tons : May 1 : 22,096 20,775 20,739 December 1 : 105,296 109,438 105,208 : : Metric Tons : May 1 : 20,045,150 18,846,760 18,814,100 December 1 : 95,522,920 99,280,480 95,443,090 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State, and United States, 1994-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Upland : AL : 463.0 590.0 540.0 455.0 578.0 538.0 AZ : 313.0 365.0 315.0 312.0 364.0 314.0 AR : 980.0 1,170.0 1,000.0 970.0 1,110.0 990.0 CA : 1,100.0 1,170.0 1,000.0 1,095.0 1,165.0 995.0 FL : 69.0 110.0 100.0 68.0 109.0 99.0 GA : 885.0 1,500.0 1,350.0 875.0 1,490.0 1,345.0 KS : 1.4 3.8 4.5 1.2 2.6 4.0 LA : 900.0 1,085.0 890.0 890.0 1,075.0 885.0 MS : 1,280.0 1,460.0 1,120.0 1,270.0 1,420.0 1,100.0 MO : 352.0 462.0 390.0 345.0 453.0 385.0 NM : 55.0 61.0 60.0 50.0 56.0 58.0 NC : 486.0 805.0 721.0 485.0 800.0 710.0 OK : 360.0 380.0 290.0 340.0 315.0 240.0 SC : 225.0 348.0 284.0 223.0 342.0 282.0 TN : 590.0 700.0 540.0 585.0 660.0 530.0 TX : 5,450.0 6,400.0 5,700.0 5,150.0 5,750.0 4,000.0 VA : 42.2 107.0 103.0 41.7 106.0 102.0 : US : 13,551.6 16,716.8 14,407.5 13,155.9 15,795.6 12,577.0 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 48.0 48.6 42.0 47.9 48.1 41.9 CA : 81.0 115.0 165.0 80.8 115.0 164.5 NM : 11.0 15.0 14.0 10.7 15.0 14.0 TX : 28.5 36.0 37.0 27.0 33.0 36.0 : US : 168.5 214.6 258.0 166.4 211.1 256.4 : All : AL : 463.0 590.0 540.0 455.0 578.0 538.0 AZ : 361.0 413.6 357.0 359.9 412.1 355.9 AR : 980.0 1,170.0 1,000.0 970.0 1,110.0 990.0 CA : 1,181.0 1,285.0 1,165.0 1,175.8 1,280.0 1,159.5 FL : 69.0 110.0 100.0 68.0 109.0 99.0 GA : 885.0 1,500.0 1,350.0 875.0 1,490.0 1,345.0 KS : 1.4 3.8 4.5 1.2 2.6 4.0 LA : 900.0 1,085.0 890.0 890.0 1,075.0 885.0 MS : 1,280.0 1,460.0 1,120.0 1,270.0 1,420.0 1,100.0 MO : 352.0 462.0 390.0 345.0 453.0 385.0 NM : 66.0 76.0 74.0 60.7 71.0 72.0 NC : 486.0 805.0 721.0 485.0 800.0 710.0 OK : 360.0 380.0 290.0 340.0 315.0 240.0 SC : 225.0 348.0 284.0 223.0 342.0 282.0 TN : 590.0 700.0 540.0 585.0 660.0 530.0 TX : 5,478.5 6,436.0 5,737.0 5,177.0 5,783.0 4,036.0 VA : 42.2 107.0 103.0 41.7 106.0 102.0 : US : 13,720.1 16,931.4 14,665.5 13,322.3 16,006.7 12,833.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1994-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : Yield : Production 1/ And :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Pounds ---------- ------ 1,000 Bales 2/ ------ : Upland : AL : 766 409 723 726.0 492.0 810.0 AZ : 1,203 1,046 1,177 782.0 793.0 770.0 AR : 877 635 776 1,772.0 1,468.0 1,600.0 CA : 1,191 953 1,158 2,717.0 2,312.0 2,400.0 FL : 735 472 582 104.1 107.2 120.0 GA : 843 625 749 1,537.0 1,941.0 2,100.0 KS : 480 185 408 1.2 1.0 3.4 LA : 815 614 705 1,512.0 1,375.0 1,300.0 MS : 806 622 807 2,132.0 1,841.0 1,850.0 MO : 856 544 748 615.0 513.0 600.0 NM : 720 609 794 75.0 71.0 96.0 NC : 820 479 669 829.0 798.0 990.0 OK : 349 187 260 247.0 123.0 130.0 SC : 846 528 791 393.0 376.0 465.0 TN : 726 527 610 885.0 724.0 674.0 TX : 458 372 522 4,915.0 4,460.0 4,350.0 VA : 944 620 753 82.0 137.0 160.0 : US : 705 533 703 19,324.3 17,532.2 18,418.4 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 806 720 836 80.4 72.2 73.0 CA : 1,098 937 1,109 184.8 224.5 380.0 NM : 875 605 686 19.5 18.9 20.0 TX : 942 756 800 53.0 52.0 60.0 : US : 974 836 998 337.7 367.6 533.0 : All : AL : 766 409 723 726.0 492.0 810.0 AZ : 1,150 1,008 1,137 862.4 865.2 843.0 AR : 877 635 776 1,772.0 1,468.0 1,600.0 CA : 1,185 951 1,151 2,901.8 2,536.5 2,780.0 FL : 735 472 582 104.1 107.2 120.0 GA : 843 625 749 1,537.0 1,941.0 2,100.0 KS : 480 185 408 1.2 1.0 3.4 LA : 815 614 705 1,512.0 1,375.0 1,300.0 MS : 806 622 807 2,132.0 1,841.0 1,850.0 MO : 856 544 748 615.0 513.0 600.0 NM : 747 608 773 94.5 89.9 116.0 NC : 820 479 669 829.0 798.0 990.0 OK : 349 187 260 247.0 123.0 130.0 SC : 846 528 791 393.0 376.0 465.0 TN : 726 527 610 885.0 724.0 674.0 TX : 461 375 524 4,968.0 4,512.0 4,410.0 VA : 944 620 753 82.0 137.0 160.0 : US : 708 537 709 19,662.0 17,899.8 18,951.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. Cottonseed: Production by State and United States, 1994-1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Production State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Tons : AL : 271.0 162.0 290.0 AZ : 324.0 334.0 322.0 AR : 712.0 580.0 646.0 CA : 1,063.0 940.0 1,020.0 FL : 33.0 38.0 40.0 GA : 516.0 674.0 720.0 KS : .5 .3 1.3 LA : 549.0 499.0 475.0 MS : 842.0 727.0 738.0 MO : 238.0 221.0 244.0 NM : 36.4 33.4 46.0 NC : 295.0 282.0 351.0 OK : 101.0 56.0 55.0 SC : 134.0 132.0 164.0 TN : 348.0 292.0 268.0 TX : 2,111.0 1,828.0 1,833.0 VA : 30.0 50.0 58.0 : US : 7,603.9 6,848.7 7,271.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimates based on 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :----------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ----- --- Cwt --- ----- 1,000 Cwt ----- Winter : CA : 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 250 250 1,300 1,425 1,425 FL : 8.8 9.0 8.8 9.0 210 200 1,173 1,848 1,800 : Total : 14.5 14.7 14.5 14.7 226 219 2,473 3,273 3,225 : Spring 1/ : AL : 2.0 1.9 160 400 304 AZ : 9.0 9.0 275 1,755 2,475 CA : 20.1 20.1 375 6,230 7,538 FL : 38.0 35.5 219 7,830 7,765 Hastings : 28.5 27.5 230 5,940 6,325 Other FL : 9.5 8.0 180 1,890 1,440 NC : 17.5 17.0 190 3,053 3,230 TX : 6.8 6.5 170 925 1,105 : Total : 93.4 90.0 249 20,193 22,417 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised; 1997 forecast will be published on April 11, 1997. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------ Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :----------------------------------------: 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --------------- Acres -------------- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Nov : 3,760 3,500 2,370 1,400 3,775 2,970 Dec : 3,790 3,455 2,415 1,475 3,510 3,040 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted January 1, 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 400 700 550 15 27 21 CA : 35,000 38,000 39,000 1,313 1,426 1,463 FL : 119,700 121,200 130,000 5,387 5,454 5,850 TX : 950 830 1,300 40 35 55 US : 156,050 160,730 170,850 6,755 6,942 7,389 Valencia : AZ : 650 950 850 24 36 32 CA : 21,000 28,000 26,000 788 1,051 975 FL : 85,800 82,000 90,000 3,861 3,690 4,050 TX : 105 110 150 4 4 6 US : 107,555 111,060 117,000 4,677 4,781 5,063 All : AZ : 1,050 1,650 1,400 39 63 53 CA : 56,000 66,000 65,000 2,101 2,477 2,438 FL : 205,500 203,200 220,000 9,248 9,144 9,900 TX : 1,055 940 1,450 44 39 61 US : 263,605 271,790 287,850 11,432 11,723 12,452 Temples : FL : 2,550 2,150 2,500 114 97 113 Grapefruit : White Seedless : FL : 25,700 23,200 26,500 1,092 986 1,126 Colored Seedless : FL : 28,700 28,100 31,500 1,220 1,194 1,339 Other : FL : 1,300 1,050 1,000 55 45 43 All : AZ : 1,400 1,200 1,000 47 40 34 CA 4/ : Desert : 3,300 111 Other Areas : 6,000 201 Total : 9,300 8,100 9,000 312 271 302 FL : 55,700 52,350 59,000 2,367 2,225 2,508 TX : 4,650 4,550 5,500 186 182 220 US : 71,050 66,200 74,500 2,912 2,718 3,064 Tangerines : AZ : 650 1,000 750 25 38 28 CA : 2,500 2,600 2,700 94 97 101 FL : 3,550 4,500 6,000 168 213 285 US : 6,700 8,100 9,450 287 348 414 Lemons : AZ : 3,600 5,100 4,000 137 194 152 CA : 20,000 21,000 22,000 760 798 836 US : 23,600 26,100 26,000 897 992 988 Tangelos : FL : 3,150 2,450 3,800 142 110 171 K-Early Citrus : FL : 120 160 150 5 7 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruit Footnotes 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with year harvest is completed. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early and mid-season varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined to All Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96. Hay: Stocks on Farms, December 1 and May 1 by State and United States, 1994-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : December 1 : May 1 State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 1/ : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 1/ : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,537 1,270 1,489 276 106 AZ : 133 265 82 27 28 AR : 2,055 1,910 1,850 426 141 CA : 1,642 2,250 2,594 327 361 CO : 2,030 2,390 1,945 447 636 CT : 105 78 97 32 11 DE : 12 9 11 10 1 FL : 490 397 437 132 29 GA : 1,170 1,050 924 371 150 ID : 2,263 2,794 2,285 222 660 IL : 1,397 1,979 1,350 540 432 IN : 1,097 1,584 1,131 148 216 IA : 4,274 4,079 3,876 751 736 KS : 5,080 4,590 5,600 796 787 KY : 5,292 4,806 4,334 648 492 LA : 512 513 502 97 15 ME : 243 272 202 61 126 MD : 347 265 433 20 55 MA : 138 115 95 28 17 MI : 3,020 3,166 2,514 1,074 754 MN : 4,895 4,374 4,018 753 694 MS : 1,688 1,368 1,620 206 50 MO : 5,755 6,000 6,159 1,016 955 MT : 3,950 4,931 4,674 772 858 NE : 5,413 4,813 5,063 1,112 1,325 NV : 630 750 752 42 166 NH : 90 82 70 26 16 NJ : 205 131 92 60 48 NM : 525 600 590 50 40 NY : 2,377 2,069 2,254 594 552 NC : 807 900 970 131 116 ND : 4,285 5,044 4,777 857 1,019 OH : 2,410 2,421 2,074 307 323 OK : 3,500 3,600 4,500 700 500 OR : 1,761 2,310 2,108 85 264 PA : 2,717 2,513 2,613 724 617 RI : 9 6 7 3 1 SC : 332 468 308 130 72 SD : 7,477 8,960 8,530 1,759 3,077 TN : 3,340 3,136 3,049 721 235 TX : 7,610 7,322 6,252 1,606 570 UT : 1,452 1,481 1,327 245 349 VT : 389 391 330 136 100 VA : 2,108 2,185 2,698 445 257 WA : 1,198 1,410 1,162 139 426 WV : 955 855 895 100 53 WI : 5,000 4,900 4,600 1,441 1,569 WY : 1,581 2,636 1,965 182 734 : US : 105,296 109,438 105,208 20,775 20,739 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. December Weather Summary: Arctic and Pacific air waged battle across the continental United States. The latter eventually overspread the Nation, but not before cold air made a serious but short-lived incursion into the South on December 18-19, delivering in some cases the lowest temperatures in 6 years. But the Northwest paid a steep price for the Pacific warmth, enduring flooding triggered by more than 40 inches of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and the rapid melting of record snowfall from Washington to western Montana. Although monthly temperatures averaged up to 9 degrees F below normal in the northern Plains, most of the Nation experienced warmer-than-normal conditions. December-record warmth peppered New England, where departures ranged from +5 to +11 degrees F. Location Average (degrees F) Departure Former Record Caribou, ME 26.2 +11.4 24.0 in 1973 Burlington, VT 32.7 +9.7 31.9 in 1982 Portland, ME 34.5 +8.0 33.7 in 1990 The December 18-19 cold outbreak produced lows of 26 degrees F in Tucson, AZ and 29 degrees F in Brownsville, TX, the lowest readings since December 1990. In coastal Texas, Corpus Christi's reading of 21 degrees F was their lowest since December 22, 1989. Farther north, patchy snow cover provided some winter wheat insulation. In Kansas, Goodland's low dipped to -9 degrees F. During a second outbreak, on December 25-26, lows on the central Plains briefly dipped to near 0 degrees F. Meanwhile in Montana, Glasgow's low plunged to -36 degrees F. In the Northwest, a 12-week wet spell culminated in major flooding at month's end. Monthly precipitation ranged from 200 to 400 percent of normal from Oregon to central California, northeastward into western Montana. Heavy snow fell throughout the Northwestern and North Central States, while rain and snow-- specially before mid-December--perpetuated the Northeast's 15-month period of wetness. In contrast, little or no precipitation fell from the southern Rockies into the central and southern Plains. As a result, records for both December- record wetness and dryness were set in various parts of the country: Location Total (Inches) Former Record (Inches) Eureka, CA 21.26 (all-time) 19.42 in February 1902 Astoria, OR 20.38 16.57 in 1955 Olympia, WA 15.91 14.32 in 1970 Salem, OR 14.71 12.40 in 1964 Portland, OR 13.35 11.12 in 1968 Philadelphia, PA 8.47 7.37 in 1983 El Paso, TX 0.00 not available Midland, TX trace not available Abilene, TX trace not available Wichita Falls, TX trace not available Albuquerque, NM trace not available Alamosa, CO trace trace in 1980 and earlier occasions Tucson, AZ trace trace in 1981 and eight other times Dodge City, KS trace trace in 1957, 1889 Oklahoma City, OK trace 0.03 in 1955, 1910, 1908 Kansas City, MO 0.03 not available Topeka, KS 0.04 0.05 in 1979, 1889 Monthly totals along the west slopes of the Sierra Nevada topped 40 inches in several locations, including 43.32 inches in the American River basin at Blue Canyon and 44.67 inches in the Feather River basin at Strawberry Valley. Precipitation fell heavily in the West until mid-month, then resumed more intensely than before around December 20. Toward month's end, freezing levels lifted and arctic air retreated northward, melting massive amounts of snow throughout the Northwest. Nevertheless, the Sierra Nevada snowpack's water equivalent averaged 20 inches (about 160 percent of normal) at year's end. Meanwhile, snow in Washington totaled a December-record 42.7 inches in Spokane (breaking their 1964 record of 42.0 inches), and accumulated to an all-time- record 27 inches in Yakima (eclipsing their December 21, 1964, standard of 22 inches). Farther east, near-record snowfall blanketed locations such as Duluth, MN (41.7 inches) and Marquette, MI (79.8 inches). For the second consecutive month, snowfall topped 20 inches in Fargo, ND (20.4 inches) and International Falls, MN (24.7 inches), as frequent white-out conditions continued to plague the North Central States. Some areas from the eastern Great Lakes to interior New England also received heavy snow, including Grand Rapids, MI (24.6 inches) and Worcester, MA (26.8 inches). During the cold outbreak on December 18-19, snow fell as far south as the Gulf Coast, totaling 2.0 inches in Montgomery, AL. All but western and northern Alaska shared in the northern Plains' cold. Fairbanks' temperature averaged 7 degrees F below normal, resulting in their coldest December since 1980. Precipitation averaged below normal nearly statewide. In Hawaii, heavy rain across Maui County late in the month interrupted an otherwise dry pattern, as the West Coast's impressive moisture fetch remained just north of the islands. General Crop Comments: The month started with heavy rains and high winds along the Pacific Northwest, causing flooding. Wheat producers in the Northern States were concerned about early snow accumulation and the lateness of small grain seedings, while producers in the central High Plains were concerned about the lack of moisture. In the southern Great Plains, cold, wet weather slowed the cotton harvest, but the moisture improved wheat conditions. Wet weather in early December across the Southeast slowed field operations and limited cotton harvest activity. Beneficial rain in Florida aided plants recovering from recent wind damage, but slowed some vegetable harvest for the holiday markets. Cool nights and cloudy conditions have helped citrus trees harden up, with most of the early fruit reported in good condition and coloring well. Later in the month, heavy rain continued along the Pacific Coast, causing flooding and leaving many fields too wet for fieldwork. Significant snowfall across the upper Great Plains and Great Lakes region provided adequate snow cover for small grains. Farther south, above-normal temperatures prevailed across the southern Great Plains, generating vigorous winter wheat growth, and allowing cotton producers to make good harvest progress. Continued dry weather in the central High Plains, combined with windy weather, threatened some wheat fields. Dry weather in Florida furnished ideal harvesting conditions, while low temperatures and some scattered frost held new growth on citrus in check. On December 20, low temperatures hit Florida's citrus belt, but windy weather prevented frost from forming. The cold weather slowed Florida's citrus trees' rate of growth. Most vegetables in south Florida were undamaged by the cold, but a hard frost farther north brought an end to harvest activity. Heavy rain returned to California, causing flooding and disrupting fieldwork. Below- freezing temperatures in parts of south Texas and Louisiana burned some crops' leaves and caused sugarcane producers to quickly complete the harvest of frost- damaged sugarcane. A blizzard across the upper Great Plains and Great Lakes region threatened livestock but provided adequate snow cover for small grains. Completion of the cotton harvest was delayed by precipitation later in the month from the Delta to the Tennessee Valley. Patchy snow cover in parts of the central Great Plains, combined with very low temperatures, threatened some winter wheat. At month's end, saturated fields in the Pacific Northwest were overwhelmed by a barrage of moisture that caused flooding. The heavy rain followed snow that caused significant damage and left many farms without electricity. High winds, combined with the freezing rain, threatened ornamental and fruit trees. The excessive downpour and potential flooding jeopardized vineyards in parts of California. Most winter wheat in the Northern States was unharmed by the frigid, sub-zero temperatures due to the substantial snow cover, but farther south, fluctuating temperatures and uneven snow cover in the central Great Plains stressed some exposed winter wheat. The end of December brought a return of mild weather in Florida, aiding vegetables recovering from the previous week's cold snap. Cool nights in Florida's citrus belt prevented new growth. Cotton: Upland cotton planted acreage is estimated at 14.4 million acres, down 14 percent from 1995, and harvested acreage, at 12.6 million acres, was 20 percent less than last year. Producers planted 258,000 acres of American- Pima cotton in 1996, up 20 percent from 1995 and harvested acreage is estimated at 256,400 acres, a 21 percent increase from last year. In Texas, harvest was 90 percent complete in late December, as open weather generally prevailed during the harvest season. Storms in early June provided some relief from the dry planting conditions in May, but high winds and hail damaged acreage, forcing producers to replant. Poor growing conditions had adverse effects on the South Texas crop during the planting season. These adverse conditions resulted in an abandonment of 30 percent of Texas' planted acreage. Texas producers planted 5.70 million acres, down 11 percent from 1995, and harvested acres, at 4.00 million were down 30 percent. In August and September, rainfall resulted in the highest boll counts and second highest boll weights since 1986. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) lagged behind the average planting pace due to wet soils and because other row crops were being planted. In mid-May, producers exceeded the 5-year average pace, and planting was complete in mid-June. Crop development was ahead of average during the season. Louisiana's crop suffered from dry conditions during early summer, and boll counts ranked ninth , but boll weights were second highest since 1986. Boll weights ranked eighth and sixth in Arkansas and Mississippi, respectively, but Arkansas' large boll counts ranked fourth highest and Mississippi's ranked second highest during the past 10 years. Planted acreage in this region was down 19 percent from 1995 and harvested acreage was down 18 percent. Arizona's planted and harvested acres decreased by 14 percent from 1995, and California producers decreased acreage 15 percent for both planted and harvested acreage. Arizona's acreage was planted well ahead of the average pace, due to approval of early planting dates in an attempt to lessen any effects of whitefly. California's seeding pace was behind average, as low April soil temperatures and rainfall in mid-April and mid-May slowed activity and also caused some replantings. California's boll counts were second lowest and boll weights were third lowest since 1986. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), cotton acreage was 11 percent less than in 1995, at 2.90 million acres. The planting pace was slightly behind average in Alabama and Georgia early in the season, but early May storms followed by a dry period, allowed producers to exceed the average pace by mid-May. Early June storms in these two States replenished soil moisture and improved crop condition. Hurricane Fran entered North Carolina on September 5, flooding some acreage and deterriorating the condition and yield prospects as it moved across the cotton producing areas. More storms followed hurricane Fran during the month, which slowed harvest in most of the region. American-Pima production is forecast at 533,000 bales, up 45 percent from 1995's output, and down 8,000 bales from the December forecast. Yield is indicated at 998 pounds per harvested acre, up 162 pounds from last year as a result of favorable weather during most of the season. However, early season high temperatures in California and late October rainfall, diminished yield prospects and quality. California producers increased their seedings 43 percent from the previous year, to 165,000 acres, and Texas' acreage increased 3 percent from 1995 to 37,000 acres. All cotton ginnings totaled 17,684,650 running bales prior to January 1, compared with 17,011,400 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 18,438,400 running bales in 1994. Winter Potatoes: Production of winter potatoes in 1997 is forecast at 3.23 million cwt. This is down 1 percent from 1996 but 30 percent above 1995. Area for harvest is estimated at 14,700 acres, up 1 percent from a year ago and 24 percent above two years ago. The average yield is projected at 219 cwt per acre, 7 cwt lower than last year. Florida potatoes are mostly planted. Crop conditions are good and harvest should get underway in January. California's potato production is expected to be the same as last year. Spring Potatoes, 1996 Revised: Production estimates of spring potatoes were revised up 6 percent from the May 1 forecast to 22.4 million cwt in 1996. This is up 11 percent from a year earlier but remained 1 percent below 1994. Harvested area totaled 90,000 acres, up 7 percent from a year ago, and the average yield of 249 cwt per acre gained 9 cwt from last year. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.04 million pounds for December. This was 2 percent higher than November but 13 percent lower than December 1995. Weather conditions during December were variable. Showers during the first half of December kept soil moisture adequate. Cool temperatures slowed growth and maturity of fruit. Area in production totaled 3,455 acres. This was 1 percent lower than November and 9 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,475 acres, was 5 percent higher than last month but 39 percent lower than December 1995. Grapefruit: The January 1 forecast of the 1996-97 U.S. grapefruit crop is a record large 3.06 million tons, 1 percent larger than last month's forecast and 13 percent larger than last year. This year's crop surpasses the previous record of 3.032 million tons in the 1976-77 season. The Florida all grapefruit forecast is a record large 59.0 million boxes (2.51 million tons), unchanged from the last forecast but 13 percent more than last season. The all seedless grapefruit forecast was held at 58.0 million boxes. The varietal divisions of 26.5 million boxes of white grapefruit and 31.5 million boxes of colored grapefruit were maintained. If attained, the total seedless will be 13 percent above the 51.3 million boxes recorded last season and 7 percent above the recorded high of 54.4 million boxes attained in the 1994-95 season. The colored forecast exceeds the record 1994-95 crop of 28.7 million boxes by 10 percent and last season's by 12 percent. The white variety exceeds last season by 14 percent but will not be a record. The December survey of fruit size indicated that the averages of both white and colored are surprisingly close to the means of the 28-season historic series. However, they are far smaller than the extremely large sizes of the past two seasons. Loss from fruit droppage through late December has been minimal and well below the average of the past 5 seasons. Movement of all seedless grapefruit is just about 10.8 million boxes with 7 million going to fresh markets. The seedy (Duncan) grapefruit forecast was held at 1.0 million boxes (43,000 tons). The Florida forecasts are based on objective fruit counts and measurement surveys in relationship to the harvest patterns and utilization of the past two seasons. All citrus forecasts project certified utilization including a preseason allocation of less than two percent for unrecorded usage. Certifications include only fruit actually shipped in fresh pack or recorded at a processing plant. California's crop is forecast at 9.00 million boxes (302,000 tons), up 13 percent from the last forecast in October and 11 percent from last season. Crop is slightly ahead of normal due to higher than normal temperatures this past fall. Harvest started in the desert area, and grading was good to excellent with good sizing reported. Some thrips scar, redscale, and wind scar defects were noted. The Texas grapefruit forecast, at 5.50 million boxes (220,000 tons), is down 4 percent from December's forecast but up 21 percent from the 1995-96 season. Utilization reports indicate a slightly smaller crop than originally forecast. Arizona's grapefruit forecast decreased 9 percent to 1.00 million boxes (34,000 tons), 17 percent less than last year's crop. Citrus growers continue to take grapefruit acreage out of production. Fruit is of average size and quality is good. Lemons: The 1996-97 lemon crop is forecast at 988,000 tons, 3 percent less than the last forecast in October and slightly less than the 1995-96 crop. California production in 1996-97 is forecast at 22.0 million boxes (836,000 tons), unchanged from the last forecast but 5 percent more than last year. Grades throughout the state were fair to good, with quality reported as excellent. Grade defects are wind scar, sunburn, and picking injuries. The Arizona lemon crop is expected to be 4.00 million boxes (152,000 tons), down 15 percent from the last forecast and down 22 percent from last year. Growers continue to take acreage out at a faster pace than the young, nonbearing lemon trees come into production. Tangelos: Florida's 1996-97 tangelo forecast is 3.80 million boxes (171,000 tons), unchanged from last month's forecast but 55 percent more than last season's crop. Harvest is slightly ahead of last year at the same time with 1.9 million boxes moved through the end of December. Processing is ahead of the past two seasons. Tangerines: The 1996-97 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at a record large 414,000 tons, down slightly from December but 19 percent more than last season. Last season's 348,000 tons was the previous record large crop. Florida's tangerine forecast was continued at 6.00 million boxes (285,000 tons), 33 percent more than 1995-96. Harvest of all Florida tangerines through December is a little more than 3.5 million boxes, which is considerably ahead of last year at the same time. Average fruit sizes are still smaller than last season and accumulated loss from droppage to date is at an historic minimum. California's tangerine forecast is 2.70 million boxes (101,000 tons), up 4 percent from the last forecast and from last season. Arizona's forecast was reduced 12 percent from the last forecast in October to 750,000 boxes (28,000 tons), down 25 percent from the 1995-96 crop. Temples: The 1996-97 forecast of Florida temples remained at 2.50 million boxes (113,000 tons), 16 percent more than last season. Harvest is just underway with only a few thousand boxes picked. The December surveys did not indicate a forecast change. K-Early Citrus: The 1996-97 K-Early Citrus forecast is 150,000 boxes (7,000 tons), unchanged from December but 6 percent less than last season's 160,000 boxes. K-Early Citrus harvest is complete. Florida Citrus: Most of Florida's citrus groves were in very good condition during December. There were very few rains and thunderstorms; therefore, many growers used irrigation to maintain good tree and fruit condition. There were a few days when the temperature dropped into the low 30's with no resulting damage to citrus. The cool temperatures helped retard new growth. The last week to ten days of December were very warm with daytime temperatures reaching into the low 80's. There were no reports of new growth flushing on young trees. Harvest of early and midseason oranges was very active with most of this fruit going to the processors. Much seedless grapefruit was moved on the lower east coast where most of the fresh grapefruit packing houses are located. Packing of tangerines and tangelos for the Christmas trade was strong until the last week of the month. Caretakers were busy cutting cover crops prior to harvest operations. Growers dirt-banked young trees and placed heaters in groves in colder areas. Harvest of early and midseason oranges through December was almost 59 million boxes, 10 million boxes less than last year at the same time. Utilization of Navel oranges was almost 5 million boxes. Texas Citrus: Harvest moved ahead rapidly during December, especially at mid-month when cold weather threatened citrus groves. Temperatures dipped into the mid-twenties for 2-7 hours, not long enough to damage fruit. The cold temperatures did cause some leaf burn. Also, because so many early oranges were mature, the cold weather caused quite a bit of fruit droppage. Droppage increase in grapefruit was not as bad. Dropped fruit was sent to the juice plant. Quality of grapefruit remained good despite the cold. California Citrus: Grapefruit maturity was slightly ahead of normal due to higher than normal temperatures this past fall. Harvest started in the desert area, and grading was good to excellent with good sizing reported. Some thrips scar, redscale, and wind scar defects were noted. Lemon picking was active throughout the state with excellent quality. Some defects include wind scar, sunburn, and picking injuries. Harvest of the navel orange crop progressed with approximately one-fourth of the crop picked. Wet weather during December resulted in some problems with clear rot. Maturity was good with huge sized fruit. The new crop Valencia oranges matured well with average set and size reported. Harvest should begin in the desert area by mid February. Tangerine quality, condition, and color were reported good. Some defects were flatsides, sunburn, and wind scar; texture was pebbly in the larger sizes. California Fruits and Nuts: Wet weather during much of December hampered orchard activities. Conditions permitting, nut and stone fruit orchards and grape vineyards were pruned. Wind in southern California blew many avocadoes off trees. Kiwifruit harvest ended in early December. Strawberry and bareroot nursery stock digging was active. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay on farms December 1, 1996 totaled 105 million tons, 4 percent below the stocks on farms December 1, 1995. Stocks decreases occurred in 30 of the 48 contiguous States, mainly in the northern and western States where 1996 all hay production was also down. The largest stocks increases occurred in the Atlantic Coast States, the Central Plain States, and Alabama and Mississippi in the Southeast. Report Features The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 12, 1997. Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621 Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice, Tobacco (202) 720-7688 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Linda McMillan - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270 Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and select: 1. Worldwide Web: http://www.usda.gov/nass/ OR 2. For Gopher/Telenet/FTP access: HOST=usda.mannlib.cornell.edu OR 3. For a subscription direct to your e-mail address, send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu and in the body of the message type the word: list AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 1-800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call l-703-834-0125 FAX: 1-703-834-0110 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics HOTLINE at 1-800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum 97 February 24 and 25, 1997 Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C. An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun. For an expert assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum. Top speakers will discuss the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues, market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more. Plan now to attend. For program and registration details, check Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and request document 66666. Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov. Get news from the Forum. Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm Agricultural Outlook Forum 97