####018007029#### FXUS63 KICT 101805 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1205 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009 .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST...WITH NEITHER NORTH AMERICAN MODEL NOR GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SOLUTIONS TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL INITIALIZED BETTER THERMODYNAMICALLY...BUT SEEMS TO BE TOO NOISY/DISJOINED BREAKING OUT CONVECTION. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS A BIT MORE CONTINUOUS WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BUT GIVEN ITS BIAS TO BE TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND NOT FOND OF ITS IDEA OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING/SLOWING SYSTEM. IN THAT REGARD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODELS MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THE MAIN ISSUE WAS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW AT KRSL/KSLN DURING THE NIGHT...BUT A LOT OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM DEEPENS. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST AT KCNU AND WOULD DECR TO THE POINT WHERE ONLY CB MENTIONED AT KHUT. AGAIN THIS COULD CHANGE IF SYSTEM DEEPENS/SLOWS AS MUCH AS NORTH AMERICAN MODEL SUGGEST. -HOWERTON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/ AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LATEST FOG IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING IFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LATEST PROFILERS WERE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 295-300K TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE ARE INTRODUCING A VCTS GROUP IN THE CNU TAF SITE MAINLY AFTER 22Z. MEANWHILE...MVFR CEILINGS (1-2KFT) SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ICT/HUT AND CNU TAF SITES AROUND 00Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT (DRY LINE/COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION) WHICH COULD BE CLOSEST TO THE HUT TAF SITE AROUND 00Z. AFTER 06Z...WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH AS A COLDER AIR SEEPS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CAUSE SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. COX PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KANSAS FRIDAY. ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 00Z NAM...ECMWF...AND UKMET WERE A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. ADDITIONALLY...THE 06Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH...AND IN FACT THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUITE SIMILAR. CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NO LONGER CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS...BUT COULD VERY WELL AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING...DUE TO A FARTHER NORTHWEST WARM SECTOR. BEST TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 6PM-MIDNIGHT. VERY STRONG LIFT AND LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN CAPES FROM 500 TO AS MUCH AS 800 OR 1000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. INITIALLY...COULD SEE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...NEAR SURFACE TRIPLE POINT AND UNDERNEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-UPPER JET (DAVIES LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH COLD-CORE 500MB LOWS?)...WITH THIS ACTIVITY RACING NORTH-NORTHEAST. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...WOULDN'T ANTICIPATE REALLY LARGE HAIL...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD RACE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...WIND AND MAYBE ISOLATED TORNADOES (IF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR-SURFACE BASED). ONCE AGAIN...MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE CONTINGENT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO AS DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST...WITH THREAT FOR EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDER CONTINUING. PER THE NEW NAM AND ECMWF RUNS...THREAT FOR A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCLUDING/NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP A TROWAL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT STILL APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...A COUPLE HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES REGARDLESS OF THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...ESPECIALLY SINCE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT...AND SHOULD BE DONE BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORMS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY WITH SNOW. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH THE ECMWF TOO FAR NORTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT...SO STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS. ADK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 68 40 54 31 / 10 60 50 0 HUTCHINSON 67 37 53 29 / 10 60 40 0 NEWTON 66 39 53 30 / 10 60 60 0 ELDORADO 67 42 53 30 / 10 70 60 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 68 42 54 32 / 20 70 50 0 RUSSELL 65 31 52 25 / 10 60 20 0 GREAT BEND 64 32 53 26 / 10 60 20 0 SALINA 69 36 53 27 / 10 60 50 0 MCPHERSON 67 37 53 28 / 10 60 50 0 COFFEYVILLE 70 47 53 32 / 40 80 70 0 CHANUTE 69 45 52 30 / 20 80 60 0 IOLA 70 44 52 30 / 10 80 60 0 PARSONS-KPPF 70 46 53 31 / 30 80 70 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ####018001582#### FXUS64 KBMX 101806 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1205 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009 .UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AND MORNING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... FAIRLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WEATHER TODAY...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. WELL MIXED AIR MASS NOT WARMING UP QUITE AS QUICKLY...IN SPITE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. TRIMMED BACK POPS/TIGHTENED GRADIENT KEEPING ANY SHOWER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...AS EASTWARD PROGRESS OF ANY PRECIP IS VERY LIMITED. BIGGEST STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING...AND EVEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. JD/81 && .AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION. GRADUALLY DEGRADING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR CIGS/VIS... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES ROUGHLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING MOISTURE SCREAMING NORTHWARD... WITH CEILINGS INITIALLY FORMING BETWEEN 010 AND 015. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT ANYTHING LOWER...BUT SOME GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT A PERIOD OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 005 AND 010 AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY IFR CIGS...AND PASS ON CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE. JD/81 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. && $$ ####018004088#### FXUS63 KLSX 101806 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1206 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009 .DISCUSSION... /504 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/ UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH CONT TDA WITH STG SLY WNDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG. THERE WILL BE A LTL MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SRN OR SERN PTN OF THE CWA TDA BUT IT APRS THAT THE BAND OF RAIN MOVG THRU EXTREME SERN MO WILL REMAIN S OF THE CWA UNTIL THIS EVNG WHEN THE LOW LVL MOISTURE SHIFTS BACK NWD AHD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE MID LVL LOW CURRENTLY OVER AZ WILL MOVE E-NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVNG. A SFC AND 850 MB LOW WILL DVLP AHD OF IT AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO MO BY EARLY WED MRNG. AN INTENSIFYING S-SWLY LLJ AHD OF THE 850 MB LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF 850 MB THETA E ADVCTN AND MOISTURE CNVG TO MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF MO TGT. 850 MB DWPTS WILL RISE TO ARND 10 DGRS C BY LT TGT OVER SERN MO. LATERAL COUPLING OF UPR LVL JET STREAKS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND GRT LKS REGION WILL CREATE STG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LT TGT AND WED MRNG ENHANCING THE BROAD SCALE LIFT. THERE IS STILL MDL INCONSISTENCY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT IT APRS THAT IT WILL MOVE THRU OR AT LEAST NR THE STL AREA ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WED. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA...S OF STL LTR TGT AND EARLY WED MRNG WITH STG LOW-MID LVL SHEAR OVER THE REGION AND AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WILL ALSO CONT FFA FOR LT TGT AND WED MRNG FOR ALL BUT THE NRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF RUNOFF FROM THE HVY RAIN OVER THE FROZEN OR RECENTLY FROZEN GROUND. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE TSRA THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STG LT TGT OVER THE SRN AND SERN PTN OF THE CWA DUE TO THE INTENSE LLJ...AND ALSO ON WED OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DPNG SFC LOW. MAY NEED A WIND ADVSRY FOR WED. STG CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC/850 MB LOW WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL WED AFTN. THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD END OVER THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA BY WED AFTN AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN SW OF THE MID LVL LOW. RAIN MAY LINGER THRU MUCH OF WED AFTN OVER THE NRN AND NERN PTN OF THE CWA AS MDLS DEPICT A BAND OF DEFORMATION TYPE PCPN. IT APRS THAT THE LOW LVLS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THIS PCPN WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. THERE WILL BE A TRANQUIL PD OF WX FM WED NGT THRU FRI MRNG...THEN ANOTHER MID LVL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA AND A CHC OF RAIN TO THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA FRI AFTN THRU FRI NGT. GKS && .AVIATION... /1157 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/ FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK OVR STL AROUND 12Z. IF THAT HOLDS...SVR THREAT WITH SQUALL LINE ALONG THE CDFNT/DRY LINE WL BE ACRS SE MO AND SRN IL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...TSRA IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE QUITE POSSIBLE FOR COU AND STL. CLDS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND MAY TRANSITION TO IFR BY 12Z AS DEF ZONE TYPE RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN GRADUALLY EXITS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRM 18Z - 21Z. JPK && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR TDA... ST. LOUIS (KSTL) 83/1932 COLUMBIA (KCOU) 77/1932 QUINCY (KUIN) 74/1932 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE- IRON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MADISON-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY- OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON. IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL- JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL- MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL. && $$ WFO LSX ####018004633#### FXUS62 KMFL 101806 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 106 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009 ...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THIS IN THE EAST COASTAL ZONES PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SO WILL MENTION THE FOG WORDING IN THE INTERIOR ZONES FOR EACH NIGHT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS SATURDAY NIGHT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTION ABOVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS OVER THE CWA TO BE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. SO THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH FOG WORDING FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LONG TERM MODELS BECOME DIFFERENT FOR NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MODEL WANTS TO CREATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TAKE IT THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL WANTS TO CREATE THE SAME LOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUSHES IT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SO AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS IS WITH THE WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS. && .MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE CWA WATERS TONIGHT...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS. THE SPEEDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE CWA WATERS. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT UP TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SO WILL HAVE A SCEC UP FOR ALL OF THE CWA WATERS TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS WHERE THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. && .CLIMATE... THE RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE DRY SEASON OF 2008-2009 IS STILL GROWING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HERE IS THE LATEST RAINFALL INFORMATION FOR THE 2008-2009 DRY SEASON INCLUDING TODAY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTAL DEFICITS MIA 1.70 - 6.49 FLL 0.98 -10.18 PBI 2.87 -10.53 APF 1.40 - 4.90 MIAMI BEACH 1.47 - 7.15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 69 81 68 84 / - - 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 72 81 70 83 / - - 10 10 MIAMI 71 82 69 84 / - - 10 10 NAPLES 61 82 64 82 / - - - 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...54/BNB SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG ####018009875#### FXUS62 KRAH 101807 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 105 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... WHIC WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BRISK FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1050 AM TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLING WARMER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INTO NC. THE SHALLOW STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED WITH CONVECTIVE MIXING. OVER THE EASTERN CWA... WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM OFF THE SC COAST. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTING OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH THE DAY... THUS AREAS EAST OF I-95 SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE TODAY. A COUPLE OF PATCHY SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE HERE THIS AFTERNOON... BUT OWING TO THE WARM STABLE LAYER AT 800-700 MB AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOTED ON 12Z CHS AND MHX SOUNDINGS... WILL NOT INCLUDE A POP HERE. BUT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA... UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND TRAJECTORIES SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR THROUGH THE DAY... ALTHOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL BRING ABOUT MILKY SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING STEADILY AND FAIRLY UNIFORMLY ACROSS THE CWA... AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGHS OF 69-74. WITH THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES... WILL HOLD ONTO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.-GIH && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED S-SE OF CENTRAL NC WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STRENGTH/ORIENTATION OF HIGH SHOULD CAUSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WED...EXPECT TO SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE SLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 POSSIBLY 35 MPH. TEMPS TONIGHT AND WED A LITTLE TRICKY. TONIGHT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE A DECK OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IF STRATUS DEVELOPS BEFORE 06Z AND SURFACE WINDS REMAIN AOA 5KTS...POTENTIAL FOR MIN TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT/OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT COLUMN WILL NOT BE TOTALLY SATURATED SO COULD SEE PERIODS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S...NEAR 75 IN THE SOUTH AND SE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. MODELS GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO EXPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE NAM-WRF. GFS PRECIP WATER VALUES ABOUT 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE NAM AND THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE MUCH STRONGER ON THE GFS VERSUS THE NAM. SINCE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR A SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE GFS...WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITIES IN THE E-SE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EARLY WED EVENING IN THE WEST ALONG A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES RATHER POOR (LESS THAN 5.5 DEG C/KM). SINCE STILL TIME TO EVALUATE...WILL OMIT THUNDER FROM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS STILL RATHER MILD WED EVENING THEN COOLING BEHIND BOUNDARY AFTER 06Z THU. THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE BOTTLED UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS FLOW THROUGH 10000FT WILL REMAIN W-NW. THUS WILL IT WILL BE COOLER THU COMPARED TO WED...TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15MPH AND GUSTS 25-30MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUBSIDE WINDS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THU BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY... DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH FLOW BECOMING CONFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH USUALLY INCREASES UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR REGION AS FAR AS TIMING OF SYSTEMS. WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRI DAY NIGHT THEN SHEAR EAST ACROSS OUR VICINITY SATURDAY. GFS WETTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF BUT THE CANADIAN DEPICTS THE SYSTEM GAINING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OFF SHORE BY 00Z SUN. TIMING SEEMS TO FAVOR SATURDAY AS BEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL INCREASE POPS TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER IF PRECIP OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH. RESIDUAL DRY AIR DEPOSITED FROM EXITING SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN COOLER MIN TEMPS. SATURDAY'S MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. IF PRECIP MORE WIDESPREAD...MAX TEMPS MAY END BEING 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ECMWF DEPICTS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY'S SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN FAVOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. DUE TO CONSENSUS...WILL LEAN TOWARD DRIER COOLER SCENARIO OF GFS/GEM BUT ECMWF DEPICTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. FOR NOW WILL HAVE POPS LESS THAN 20% SUN THROUGH MON WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 105 PM TUESDAY... VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL HOLD THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING... AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL. OF NOTE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18-24 KTS. DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM AROUND 180 DEGREES TO 260 DEGREES AT ALL TAF SITES... WITH 210-230 DEGREES THE MOST PREVALENT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWEST 2000-3000 FEET AGL BEGINS TO SLIGHTLY STABILIZE... BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NC... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED CONTINUOUSLY OVERNIGHT. THE 925 MB ANALYSIS THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY 2500-3000 FT) SHOWED VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM WITH A COMPARATIVELY DRY AREA ACROSS GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BOUNDED BY MOISTURE RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SATURATION THOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM SINCE THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT. BUT WE SHOULD SEE BORDERLINE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AS WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF LLWS CRITERIA AREN'T QUITE MET... THE AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE PRODUCED COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLUSTERY SW WINDS AT 13-16 KTS... GUSTING OVER 25 KTS... WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKING BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WNW. SUSTAINED SW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS... SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE NEXT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. -GIH && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY... WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THUS EXTREME FIRE DANGER NOT ANTICIPATED. THE PROBLEM DAY MAY BE THURSDAY...DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS WED NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD REGION THU. FORECAST MN RH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S...JUST ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. DEWPOINTS THU MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES DRIER. IF THIS OCCURS...EXPECT MIN RH LEVELS WELL WITHIN THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS THU EXPECTED TO GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...POSSIBLY 30 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. IF RAIN SPOTTY AND LIGHT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...FINE FUELS COULD BE QUITE DRY. DAY CREW MAY NEED TO COORDINATE WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...HARTFIELD FIRE WEATHER...WSS ####018003007#### FXUS63 KPAH 101808 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009 .UPDATE... AFTN AVN DISCUSSION && .AVIATION... WAA PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MODERATE COMPARED TO WED MRNG AFTER A WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SVR STORMS/WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY IN A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT AND DRY SLOT LATE IN THE 24 HR PERIOD. GRADIENT WINDS ARE FCST TO KICK UP TO AT LEAST 25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS POSSIBLE WED MRNG. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 126 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/ DISCUSSION... SPC CONTINUES SLGT RISK OUTLOOK FOR TUE NIGHT-WED STORMS. CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECT SRN 2/3 OF AREA WILL CONT ITS SLOW/GRADUAL SE SAG THIS AM...THEN RETURN NORTH LATER TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSM CHANCES. GENERALLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL REALLY GET CRANKING LATE TONIGHT-WED. HAVE NOT SEEN MOS OUTPUT WINDS SO HIGH...WITH MODELS VARYING BUT ALL INSISTING ON TIGHT PGF AND REAL CHANCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA HIGH WIND EVENT. HAVE POSTED HIGH WIND WATCH LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED EVENING AS A RESULT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE REAL PROBLEMS CONSIDERING ALL THE RECENT ICE STORM DAMAGED TREES/POWER LINES SO WE'LL MAKE SURE TO HAVE MENTION OF THAT IN OUR PRODUCTS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES DIMINISH AFT 18Z WED AS PARENT LOW SHOVES FRONTAL/PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO THE EAST. STILL STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AS THEY TURN WLY WILL BEGIN TO RELAX WED NIGHT WITH THE LOW'S LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK INTO THE COLUMN AFTER THAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED. GENERALLY WE LIKED A MAV/MET MOS BLEND OF TEMPS/TDS INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST/COLLAB PIC. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN- DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON- LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER. MO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO. IL...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON- JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON. IN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK. && $$ AVIATION...DB