AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1000 AM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .DISCUSSION... MORNING UPDATE...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH...MOST OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING FILTERED SUNSHINE DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD STAY WITH US FOR THE DAY AS LATEST RUC RUN SHOWS THAT THE 250MB JET AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA/SC COAST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED SURFACE LOW BY THIS EVENING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE WIND STREAMLINES AND BUOYS OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST ALREADY INDICATING A CLOSED (OR NEARLY CLOSED) LOW. MAY SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF TODAYS MAX TEMPS DUE TO AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. && .MARINE...AREA BUOYS RECORDING 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. 41009 RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE RUNS. WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER WATER TO EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS FOR AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOONER IF LOW FORMS QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE FORECAST AND THE LOCAL PGRAD RESPONDS (TIGHTENS) ACCORDINGLY. && .AVIATION...VFR. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPING LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR. && .FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT INTERIOR AREA DEW POINTS...MID 30S...ARE MUCH LOWER THAN 00Z/06Z MAV GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTED TO RISE WITH COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. WITH MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S SOME LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 35 PERCENT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...ASSUMING CLOUDS DO NOT HOLD TEMPS DOWN BELOW FCST VALS. NEVERTHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS FOR SHORT FUSED RFW. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM BEGINNING TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 0-20NM BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. && $$ SHORT TERM...WIMMER LONG TERM....CRISTALDI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 934 AM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY & MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... QUICK UPDATE TO FOP-RECAST THIS MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOW AND CONFINED MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES. ROADS AND OTHER SOLID SURFACES ARE SEEING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THUS FAR...2 INCHES IS THE HIGHEST REPORTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE SITUATION WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE COVERED THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH AN SPS. THE PUBLIC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO INCREASE POPS...EXTEND THE AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW SOUTH TO THE HOULTON AREA AND EXTEND THE SNOWFALL A FEW HOURS IN TIME TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE ALL ELSE APPEARS ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY & MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR NWRN AREAS TODAY. WILL NEED TO BOOST UP AMOUNTS SOME BASED ON LATEST RADAR OSW (SWE) & MCOOP SITES SHOWING UP TO 1" OF SNOW USING A 12:1 SNOW RATIO. LOOKS LIKE SOME MELTING HAS OCCURRED AS THE GROUND IS STILL WARM. WILL SHOOT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NWRN ME (FORT KENT TO ALLAGASH). FURTHER E TOWARD VAN BUREN AND CARIBOU...UP TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF SNOW LOOKS GOOD. JUST A TRACE ACROSS PQI DOWN INTO MLT. STARTED THINGS OUT W/THE 06Z RUC & THEN BLENDED IN THE NAM-WRF FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO MATCH UP WELL W/WHAT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING W/BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN & NWRN ME (MEZ001>003). AFTER THAT...DECISION WAS TO BLEND THE NAM-WRF & THE GFS INTO TUESDAY. SFC TROF & ASSOCD VORTICITY MAX HELPING TO TRIGGER THE SNOW. DECENT CONVERGENCE SEEM IN THE LLVL W/SOME WARMING @ 850 MBS COUPLED W/MID LVL COOLING HELPING TO TRIGGER HEFTY SNOW BAND FROM ALLAGASH THROUGH ST. FRANCIS. THIS AREA WILL PIVOT & WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS TO THE E. STARTED OUT W/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR N & NW & THEN SCALED THINGS BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS TROF & VORT MAX MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK & LLV CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN. KEPT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ESP FOR NNW AREAS W/NW FLOW OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE. PREV MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT W/MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO START OUT. STARTED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BY 06Z TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NERN UNITED STATES. KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN AREAS N OF GNR TO BGR. SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUED NWLY FLOW FROM 850-700 MBS. USED THE 2M GFS TEMPS FOR MINS. HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY SOME SUNSHINE & NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BASE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD ON BLEND OF BOTH MODELS. HAVE CREATED TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BLEND OF MAV/MET BUT HAVE ADJUSTED MINS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOWER DUE TO EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE ONLY FEW MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE WERE MADE. AVIATION /08Z-06Z/... FOR NOW...HUNG ON TO VFR CIGS W/A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS & CIGS THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME SNOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ACROSS KCAR AND KPQI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/THE NW FLOW. MARINE... SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES. PREV WIND GRIDS LOOKED GOOD. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE THIS AFTERNOON & AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO BOOST THEM A FEW KTS FOR DIURNAL EFFECTS. WNA MATCHING PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT IS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW W/3-4 FOOT SWELL. 10-15 KTS W/2-4 FOOT SEAS (SWELL). LONG TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF GFS AND NAM12. WAVE GRIDS INITIALIZED WITH WNA WAVE WATCH III. WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD EXPECT COMBINED SEAS TO BE COMPOSED MAINLY OF SWELL. THE WAVE MODEL WITH 1 TO 2 FEET FORECAST SEEMS TO DO A REASONABLE JOB SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY MODIFICATIONS TO WAVE MODEL. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LERICOS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1030 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 ...UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF P-TYPE... IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ADVANCING FAR ENOUGH INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH 15Z/TUE... WHERE P-TYPE WOULD BE A SLIGHT CONCERN. THE TOP DOWN METHOD COMBINED WITH OUR PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE WET SNOW FLAKES OR SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10Z-15Z TUESDAY...(IF)... THE PRECIP REACHES THAT FAR DURING THAT TIME. THAT IS A BIG... (IF)... GIVEN THE CURRENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. REGARDLESS... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 32. AFTER 15Z... WARMER MID LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO COME WESTWARD OVER THE PIEDMONT FROM THE ATLANTIC STRONGLY INDICATING COLD RAIN. && .SYNOPSIS... THE CLASSIC INSTANT OCCLUSION CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CHS... ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH... BUT WAS NOT YET DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER GA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... WHEN A WIDESPREAD COLD WIND DRIVEN RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL NC FROM THE EAST... EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... EARLY ON WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST... THERE IS A BIG BATTLE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SURGING SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO CENTRAL NC (20S DEW POINTS)... AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM OFF THE SE COAST. THE DRY AIR WAS BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A 1030 SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE MS VALLEY NE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST TOWARD PA/NY LATER TUE-WED... LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE IN CONTINUOUS SUPPLY INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION... WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS DURING THIS EVENT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE FAR NW PIEDMONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ON THIS BACK EDGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE PIEDMONT... WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM RALEIGH AND FAYETTEVILLE EASTWARD.THE MID EVENING RADAR DATA DEPICTED SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO COASTAL SE NC... WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER THE GULF STREAM. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RECORDED THUS FAR. THE RAIN HAS BEEN HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ADVANCING NORTHWEST INTO THE DRY AIR MASS SEEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION APPEARS VERY REASONABLE OVERNIGHT AS THIS COASTAL STORM REALLY BEGINS TO GET GOING LATER TONIGHT... RANGING FROM CATEGORICAL LIGHT RAIN OVER SAMPSON AND WAYNE... TAPERING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN... SE SANDHILLS AND SE PIEDMONT... WITH NO POP FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT (W-N OF RALEIGH). MID EVENING SURFACE TEMPS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45 OVER THE PIEDMONT... INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 20S NW... INTO THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS LOOK VERY REASONABLE FROM THE MID 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SE. LATER UPDATES MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN... WHERE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MAY REACH INTO THE 4-8 INCH RANGE. MUCH MORE ON THIS IN THE NEXT UPDATE. -BADGETT && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 558 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006) SYNOPSIS... LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE CLASSIC INSTANT OCCLUSION CYCLOGENESIS WITH POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. ASCII SUGGESTS 8 MB PER 12 HOUR DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFFSHORE. THIS SUGGESTS THE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE... AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... PAST N.C. STATE CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC/SC COAST. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLASSIC INSTANT OCCLUSION CYCLOGENESIS... BOTTOM LINE FOR CENTRAL NC IS THAT THERE IS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST ALLOWING FOR MUCH GREATER POP AND QPF... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF STREAM OFF SC/NC AND EXPANDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO OUR SE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY... THE RUC AND NAM CONTINUE CLUELESS WITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPING SITUATION. THE GFS IS OFF TO A FAR BETTER START AND WILL BE USED WITH CAUTION. THIS UPDATE WILL RAISE POP AND QPF TONIGHT FOR OUR SE COUNTIES. FUTURE UPDATES TO INCREASE POP AND QPF INLAND INTO THE PIEDMONT FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE LIKELY. -BADGETT/STRICKLER PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING BASE OF DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF CAPE FEAR AND POSSIBLY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF SAV. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS DID A GOOD JOB DEPICTING RAINFALL INLAND OF ILM WHILE NAM DID NOT DEPICT RAIN AS FAR INLAND. LEANED TOWARD GFS INITIALLY. AFTER 12Z TUE...HOWEVER...GFS APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE ADVECTING MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT KEYING ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF NC INTO SC. MEANWHILE...NEAR SURFACE NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THUS EXPECT A SHARP RAIN/NO RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SANDHILLS/PIEDMONT BY TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. THUS HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ADVANCEMENT NWWD INTO CENTRAL NC THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BUT A LITTLE MORE THAN DEPICTED BY NAM. THROUGH 18Z TUE...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN THREAT TO LIE SOUTH OF GSB-LAURINBURG LINE. BY TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND NE PIEDMONT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW 50% IN THE NW PIEDMONT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DISTANCE FROM BEST LIFT/MOISTURE. CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF 850MB FLOW HAS MORE OF ELY COMPONENT THAN NE...THEN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD BE ABLE ADVECT WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TUE THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT EXPECTING FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY COASTAL PLAIN. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE EAST TAPERING TO SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE IN THE WEST. MAX TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO COOL NE FETCH AND OVERCAST SKIES/PATCHY RAIN. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS WHEN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT AREA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW EXIT DUE TO PRESENCE OF DOMINATE HIGH ANCHORED IN VICINITY OF CANADIAN MARITIME. THUS...WILL INCREASE/EXTEND POPS THU NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRI. AFTERWHICH...UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SE U.S. WITH DEVELOPING SLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SAT THROUGH MON. POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SUN/MON BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WITH BASES 35 HUNDRED TO 5 THOUSAND FEET WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH NEAR END OF TAF PERIOD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... SHORT TERM...BADGETT nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 935 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .SYNOPSIS... THE CLASSIC INSTANT OCCLUSION CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CHS... ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH... BUT WAS NOT YET DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER GA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... WHEN A WIDESPREAD COLD WIND DRIVEN RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL NC FROM THE EAST... EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... EARLY ON WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST... THERE IS A BIG BATTLE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SURGING SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO CENTRAL NC (20S DEW POINTS)... AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM OFF THE SE COAST. THE DRY AIR WAS BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A 1030 SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE MS VALLEY NE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST TOWARD PA/NY LATER TUE-WED... LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE IN CONTINUOUS SUPPLY INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION... WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS DURING THIS EVENT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE FAR NW PIEDMONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ON THIS BACK EDGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE PIEDMONT... WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM RALEIGH AND FAYETTEVILLE EASTWARD.THE MID EVENING RADAR DATA DEPICTED SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO COASTAL SE NC... WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER THE GULF STREAM. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RECORDED THUS FAR. THE RAIN HAS BEEN HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ADVANCING NORTHWEST INTO THE DRY AIR MASS SEEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION APPEARS VERY REASONABLE OVERNIGHT AS THIS COASTAL STORM REALLY BEGINS TO GET GOING LATER TONIGHT... RANGING FROM CATEGORICAL LIGHT RAIN OVER SAMPSON AND WAYNE... TAPERING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN... SE SANDHILLS AND SE PIEDMONT... WITH NO POP FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT (W-N OF RALEIGH). MID EVENING SURFACE TEMPS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45 OVER THE PIEDMONT... INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 20S NW... INTO THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS LOOK VERY REASONABLE FROM THE MID 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SE. LATER UPDATES MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN... WHERE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MAY REACH INTO THE 4-8 INCH RANGE. MUCH MORE ON THIS IN THE NEXT UPDATE. -BADGETT && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 558 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006) SYNOPSIS... LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE CLASSIC INSTANT OCCLUSION CYCLOGENESIS WITH POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. ASCII SUGGESTS 8 MB PER 12 HOUR DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFFSHORE. THIS SUGGESTS THE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE... AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... PAST N.C. STATE CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC/SC COAST. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLASSIC INSTANT OCCLUSION CYCLOGENESIS... BOTTOM LINE FOR CENTRAL NC IS THAT THERE IS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST ALLOWING FOR MUCH GREATER POP AND QPF... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF STREAM OFF SC/NC AND EXPANDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO OUR SE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY... THE RUC AND NAM CONTINUE CLUELESS WITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPING SITUATION. THE GFS IS OFF TO A FAR BETTER START AND WILL BE USED WITH CAUTION. THIS UPDATE WILL RAISE POP AND QPF TONIGHT FOR OUR SE COUNTIES. FUTURE UPDATES TO INCREASE POP AND QPF INLAND INTO THE PIEDMONT FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE LIKELY. -BADGETT/STRICKLER PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING BASE OF DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF CAPE FEAR AND POSSIBLY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF SAV. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS DID A GOOD JOB DEPICTING RAINFALL INLAND OF ILM WHILE NAM DID NOT DEPICT RAIN AS FAR INLAND. LEANED TOWARD GFS INITIALLY. AFTER 12Z TUE...HOWEVER...GFS APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE ADVECTING MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT KEYING ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF NC INTO SC. MEANWHILE...NEAR SURFACE NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THUS EXPECT A SHARP RAIN/NO RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SANDHILLS/PIEDMONT BY TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. THUS HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ADVANCEMENT NWWD INTO CENTRAL NC THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BUT A LITTLE MORE THAN DEPICTED BY NAM. THROUGH 18Z TUE...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN THREAT TO LIE SOUTH OF GSB-LAURINBURG LINE. BY TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND NE PIEDMONT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW 50% IN THE NW PIEDMONT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DISTANCE FROM BEST LIFT/MOISTURE. CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF 850MB FLOW HAS MORE OF ELY COMPONENT THAN NE...THEN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD BE ABLE ADVECT WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TUE THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT EXPECTING FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY COASTAL PLAIN. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE EAST TAPERING TO SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE IN THE WEST. MAX TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO COOL NE FETCH AND OVERCAST SKIES/PATCHY RAIN. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS WHEN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT AREA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW EXIT DUE TO PRESENCE OF DOMINATE HIGH ANCHORED IN VICINITY OF CANADIAN MARITIME. THUS...WILL INCREASE/EXTEND POPS THU NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRI. AFTERWHICH...UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SE U.S. WITH DEVELOPING SLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SAT THROUGH MON. POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SUN/MON BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WITH BASES 35 HUNDRED TO 5 THOUSAND FEET WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH NEAR END OF TAF PERIOD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... SHORT TERM...BADGETT nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 558 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .SYNOPSIS... LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE CLASSIC INSTANT OCCLUSION CYCLOGENESIS WITH POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. ASCII SUGGESTS 8 MB PER 12 HOUR DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFFSHORE. THIS SUGGESTS THE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE... AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... PAST N.C. STATE CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC/SC COAST. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLASSIC INSTANT OCCLUSION CYCLOGENESIS... BOTTOM LINE FOR CENTRAL NC IS THAT THERE IS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST ALLOWING FOR MUCH GREATER POP AND QPF... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF STREAM OFF SC/NC AND EXPANDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO OUR SE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY... THE RUC AND NAM CONTINUE CLUELESS WITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPING SITUATION. THE GFS IS OFF TO A FAR BETTER START AND WILL BE USED WITH CAUTION. THIS UPDATE WILL RAISE POP AND QPF TONIGHT FOR OUR SE COUNTIES. FUTURE UPDATES TO INCREASE POP AND QPF INLAND INTO THE PIEDMONT FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE LIKELY. -BADGETT/STRICKLER && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING BASE OF DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF CAPE FEAR AND POSSIBLY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF SAV. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS DID A GOOD JOB DEPICTING RAINFALL INLAND OF ILM WHILE NAM DID NOT DEPICT RAIN AS FAR INLAND. LEANED TOWARD GFS INITIALLY. AFTER 12Z TUE...HOWEVER...GFS APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE ADVECTING MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT KEYING ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF NC INTO SC. MEANWHILE...NEAR SURFACE NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THUS EXPECT A SHARP RAIN/NO RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SANDHILLS/PIEDMONT BY TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. THUS HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ADVANCEMENT NWWD INTO CENTRAL NC THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BUT A LITTLE MORE THAN DEPICTED BY NAM. THROUGH 18Z TUE...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN THREAT TO LIE SOUTH OF GSB-LAURINBURG LINE. BY TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND NE PIEDMONT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW 50% IN THE NW PIEDMONT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DISTANCE FROM BEST LIFT/MOISTURE. CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF 850MB FLOW HAS MORE OF ELY COMPONENT THAN NE...THEN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD BE ABLE ADVECT WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TUE THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT EXPECTING FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY COASTAL PLAIN. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE EAST TAPERING TO SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE IN THE WEST. MAX TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO COOL NE FETCH AND OVERCAST SKIES/PATCHY RAIN. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS WHEN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT AREA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW EXIT DUE TO PRESENCE OF DOMINATE HIGH ANCHORED IN VICINITY OF CANADIAN MARITIME. THUS...WILL INCREASE/EXTEND POPS THU NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRI. AFTERWHICH...UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SE U.S. WITH DEVELOPING SLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SAT THROUGH MON. POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SUN/MON BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WITH BASES 35 HUNDRED TO 5 THOUSAND FEET WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH NEAR END OF TAF PERIOD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS& SHORT TERM...BADGETT/STRICKLER nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 935 AM CST MON NOV 20 2006 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND WIND. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER HIGH PLAINS/W DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES PRODUCING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA. MSAS SHOWING PRESSURE FALL MINIMA AXIS FROM YWG-ABR. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 50+ KTS AT 850MB HOWEVER MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW...BLO 950MB WITH STRONG INVERSION. ALSO SHOWING VEERING PROFILE IN WARM ADVECTION SO NOT VERY DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. AS A RESULT FEEL WINDS TODAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND SHOULD NOT SEE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY/WINDY DAY HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA. GRADIENT RELAXES FROM W-E THIS AFTERNOON AS TROUGH APPROCHES. QUITE ABIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR FILTERED SOLAR AT BEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL ADVECTION HERE. FOR THIS WILL ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 952 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. DIURNAL SC HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE TO GO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 622 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING SC FIELD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR. WITH DRY AIRMASS THEN IN PLACE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE GRADIENT NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG AT KLUK TONIGHT BUT GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL INCLUDE AN MVFR RESTRICTION FOR BR TOWARD SUNRISE THERE. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATEST NAM/GFS RUNS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL TRENDS AS WELL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESSES IN SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. INITIAL FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DEALING WITH CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. 18Z RUC SHOWING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION LOBE MOVING INTO THE ILN CWA FROM THE NORTH. APPEARS SOME OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TIED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THIS FORCING PUSHES SOUTH IT SHOULD WEAKEN...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. AFTER THIS...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND ASIDE FROM A SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL AT TIMES SPILL OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL DOMINATE...THUS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES PRIMARILY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE..WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS MOS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE GIVEN THE COOLER MODEL TRENDS. /ISSUED 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006/ LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH HI PRES IN CONTROL. UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACRS OH VLY ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDCG UPR LO OFF SE ATLC COAST SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AS IT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE CAROLINAS THURS AND FRI. SOME CI CLOUDS MAY SPILL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO EASTERN FCST AREA THURS EVNG INTO FRI... OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD FREE THURS INTO FRI. A WEAKENING FRNTL BNDRY WILL MOVE ACRS THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT. AM EXPECTING ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. HI PRES THEN RETURNS FOR SAT AND SUN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPCH THE REGION MON WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORM THRU MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH AFTN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE NICER THANKSGIVING DAYS IN RECENT MEMORY...AS SRN FCST AREA MAY GET CLOSE TO 60 DEG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 622 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING SC FIELD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR. WITH DRY AIRMASS THEN IN PLACE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE GRADIENT NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG AT KLUK TONIGHT BUT GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL INCLUDE AN MVFR RESTRICTION FOR BR TOWARD SUNRISE THERE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATEST NAM/GFS RUNS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL TRENDS AS WELL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESSES IN SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. INITIAL FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DEALING WITH CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. 18Z RUC SHOWING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION LOBE MOVING INTO THE ILN CWA FROM THE NORTH. APPEARS SOME OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TIED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THIS FORCING PUSHES SOUTH IT SHOULD WEAKEN...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. AFTER THIS...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND ASIDE FROM A SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL AT TIMES SPILL OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL DOMINATE...THUS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES PRIMARILY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE..WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS MOS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE GIVEN THE COOLER MODEL TRENDS. /ISSUED 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006/ LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH HI PRES IN CONTROL. UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACRS OH VLY ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDCG UPR LO OFF SE ATLC COAST SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AS IT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE CAROLINAS THURS AND FRI. SOME CI CLOUDS MAY SPILL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO EASTERN FCST AREA THURS EVNG INTO FRI... OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD FREE THURS INTO FRI. A WEAKENING FRNTL BNDRY WILL MOVE ACRS THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT. AM EXPECTING ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. HI PRES THEN RETURNS FOR SAT AND SUN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPCH THE REGION MON WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORM THRU MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH AFTN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE NICER THANKSGIVING DAYS IN RECENT MEMORY...AS SRN FCST AREA MAY GET CLOSE TO 60 DEG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATEST NAM/GFS RUNS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL TRENDS AS WELL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESSES IN SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. INITIAL FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DEALING WITH CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. 18Z RUC SHOWING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION LOBE MOVING INTO THE ILN CWA FROM THE NORTH. APPEARS SOME OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TIED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THIS FORCING PUSHES SOUTH IT SHOULD WEAKEN...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. AFTER THIS...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND ASIDE FROM A SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL AT TIMES SPILL OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL DOMINATE...THUS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES PRIMARILY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE..WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS MOS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE GIVEN THE COOLER MODEL TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH HI PRES IN CONTROL. UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACRS OH VLY ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDCG UPR LO OFF SE ATLC COAST SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AS IT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE CAROLINAS THURS AND FRI. SOME CI CLOUDS MAY SPILL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO EASTERN FCST AREA THURS EVNG INTO FRI... OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD FREE THURS INTO FRI. A WEAKENING FRNTL BNDRY WILL MOVE ACRS THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT. AM EXPECTING ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. HI PRES THEN RETURNS FOR SAT AND SUN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPCH THE REGION MON WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORM THRU MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH AFTN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE NICER THANKSGIVING DAYS IN RECENT MEMORY...AS SRN FCST AREA MAY GET CLOSE TO 60 DEG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RYAN && .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES. IN THAT NORTHERLY FLOW THERE IS A TROF WORKING ACROSS OH/INDIANA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROF. KILN RADAR IS DRY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS SETS OF TAFS. CU WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET AND BE CLEAR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OHIO VALLEY. TIPTON && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 154 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... EXPECT THE CURRENT CLOUDY/FLURRY CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING COLD UPPER TROUGH, TO GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, AS NAM-WRF AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE-ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO NAM-WRF AND GFS MOS VALUES. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE USA WILL PULL NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY UP THE EASTERN COAST LINE. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN SET UP GIVING MORE SEASONAL TYPE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. BASICALLY WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE PACKAGE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH ONLY THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY BEING OF CONCERN. THANKSGIVING DAY IS LOOKING NICE AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY SUNNY. THE SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL BE A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION... CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN ERODING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, AS INDICATED BY TRENDS IN RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND RUC, NAM-WRF, AND GFS MODEL RUNS. SO EXPECT CURRENT MVFR-VFR CEILINGS TO BECOME UNLIMITED TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY P6SM, BUT RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW (FLURRIES). THESE AREAS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE TOWARD EVENING, SO EXPECT THAT ANY ISOLATED LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE GONE BY AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS MOS FAVORING NORTHEAST 3-6KTS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1020 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 ...MAJOR COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE SC/GA COAST... ...HIGH WINDS COULD IMPACT BRIDGE TRAVEL TUE MORNING... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...EVNG WATER VAPOR IMGRY SHOWS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS STRONG UPR TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD OFF THE SE COAST EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BAROCLINIC LEAF APPEARANCE. UNDER THE BAROCLINIC LEAF...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY WITH LOW PRES NOTED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF TYBEE ISLAND GA. SFC PRESSURES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW HAVE DROPPED ABOUT 2MB IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SFC PRESSURES ACROSS THE NC/SC/GA PIEDMONT HAVE RISEN ABOUT 2-3MB. THIS HAS PRODUCED A 3-5MB PRESS GRADIENT ALONG THE SC COAST OVR THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WINDS HAVE RESPONDED AND ARE NOW GUSTING 35 MPH AT MANY COASTAL OBSERVATION STATIONS FROM TYBEE ISLAND NE ALONG THE SC COAST. THE PRES GRADIENT WL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN INTO TUE AS LOW PRESS DEEPENS AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS E TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFC LOW IS ALREADY A FEW MB LOWER THAN WHAT ANY OF THE 12Z/18Z MODEL SUITE PREDICTED. CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE RGN OVRNGT AS THE LOW PRESS DEEPENS INTO A FORMIDABLE COASTAL STORM AS IT MEANDERS WELL E OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTS A DEFORMATION ZONE WL SET UP ACROSS COASTAL NC AND SC TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE UPR TROF ALOFT BECOMES CUT OFF. SATL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING OFF THE SC COAST SO EXPECT PCPN TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE COAST LTE TNGT AS MID-LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INCRS. WL MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES IN THE FCST TO BETTER TIME THE BEST CHANCES RAIN TNGT BUT AT THIS POINT ITS PROBABLY NOT A GOOD IDEA TO CHANGE THE OVRNGT POP FCST TOO MUCH UNTIL MORE DEFINITIVE PCPN TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF INTERIOR SE GA WL REMAIN DRY TNGT. FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST LTL IN THE WAY OF P-TYPE PROBLEMS WL OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN WL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...THE NEAR SFC LAYER /SFC-2000 FT/ JUST LOOKS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY FROZEN HYDROMETERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCR TNGT...ESP AT THE COAST. WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE ALREADY NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT AS BNDRY LYR-950MB WINDS INCR TO NEAR 40-50 KT...SFC WINDS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE BY SUNRISE...ESP AT THE COAST. WE ARE BECMG INCREASINGLY CONCERNED THAT HIGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC COULD SEVERELY IMPACT BRIDGE OPERATIONS TUE MRNG...PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED BRIDGES SUCH AS THE RAVENEL BRIDGE IN CHARLESTON. A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE WTRS. GALES ARE NOW BEING REPORTED AT 41004 AND THE CAPERS MID-SHELF BUOY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT 41008. 00Z RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS BNDRY LYR-950MB WINDS INCRG TO 40-50 AFT MIDNIGHT WITH 45-60 KT ACROSS THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THIS SHOULD MIX TO THE SFC. PLAN ON INCRG WINDS TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OVR THE GA NEARSHORE WATERS...30-40 KT WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT ACROSS THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS AND BRING WINDS UP TO 35-45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT OVR THE GA OFFSHORE WATERS. VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WL OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE WRN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM CURRENTLY RESIDES. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS WL REMAIN BUT WL UPGRADE THE GALE WARNING TO A STORM WARNING FOR THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS. && .AVIATION...DEVELOPING LOW OVER COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TERMS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING. EXPECT MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS TO WRAP AROUND LOW LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z. WIND GUSTS REMAIN A HAZARD AS DEEPENING LOW LEADS TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND CAA ALOFT ALLOWS MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT CHS AND 25 KNOTS AT SAV OVER NIGHT. AS DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND LOW...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 08Z THRU THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MOS HINTS AT LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY OF RAIN INTENSITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CEILINGS AT LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF TAF PERIOD. && .LAKE WINDS...WINDS ALREADY 20-25 KT ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OUT OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. UNFORTUNATELY THE ONE SENSOR WE HAVE ON THE SANTEE DAM IS NOT COMPLETELY SAMPLING THE WIND SINCE WINDS ARE FROM THE NE /FROM OVER LAND/. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WINDS OF 40-45 KT IN THE BNDRY LYR SUGGEST SFC WNDS OF AT LEAST 30-35 KT. WL UPGRADE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO A LOW-END HIGH WIND WARNING. EXPECT WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS TO REACH 4-5 FT AT TIMES... PARTICULARLY ON THE SRN END OF THE LAKE. THIS MAY RESULT IN MINOR LAKE FLOODING...EROSION AND POSSIBLE PIER/DOCK DAMAGE ON THE SRN END OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING THE COMMUNITY OF PINOPOLIS. && .COASTAL IMPACTS...SEAS AT 41004 HAVE RISEN TO AT LEAST 10 FT. SEAS WL BUILD TO AT LEAST 8-10 FT IN THE 0-20 NM STRETCH BY SUNRISE AS GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS DVLP. DESPITE OFFSHORE WINDS...BACKSWELL WITH 8-9 SEC PERIODS WL LIKELY PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS TYBEE ISLAND...HUNTING ISLAND...EDISTO BEACH...FOLLY BEACH AND WILD DUNES. WL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR GAZ117-119-139-142 THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141 THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ048>051 THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045 THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR AMZ350-352-374 GALE WARNING FOR AMZ330-354. && $$ ST/DPB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 445 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 ...A SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GOMEX. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENOUGH SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO ALLOW A CUT OFF TO FORM TONIGHT. EXPECT THE COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY AROUND 150 NM OFFSHORE OF THE GA COASTLINE TO DEEPEN TUESDAY AS THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SYSTEM WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE BREEZY AT TIMES...AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...RATHER ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WILL UPDATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK TO FOCUS MORE ON THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN AREAS NEAR THE COASTLINE...SUCH AS DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. DO NOT FEEL THAT FLOODING POTENTIAL IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA. DETAILS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MUCH TRICKIER TO PIN DOWN...AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE WITH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS. 12Z GFS HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE LOW QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TRACK IT FURTHER NORTH...THEREBY DECREASING WINDS AND PRECIP IMPACTS. NAM IS NOTICEABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INITIALLY DEEPENING THE COASTAL LOW AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE OTHER MODELS. LATEST ECMWF FALLS BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM CONCERNING STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...AND PREFER NOT TO MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE ONGOING PUBLIC FORECAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN JUMPY...AND JUST A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION AND TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD CAUSE A LARGE CHANGE IN POPS. WOULD THUS PREFER TO REMAIN GENERIC WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE COASTAL LOW...WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON HIGH IMPACT EVENT IN THE SHORT TERM. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ON THANKSGIVING DAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE...VIS SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATES THE SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST E OF THE NAVY R2 TOWER. PREFERENCE IS WITH THE ECMWF/CAN/UKMET/GFS SOLUTION CONCERNING THE NEXT THREE DAY/S FCST. THIS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE LATEST WRF SOLUTION. IN GENERAL...THE WRF APPEARS OVERDONE WITH THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD. NEVERTHELESS...THE 925 MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT TO 35-45 KT...THEN TO 50-60 KT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD EASILY REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING. IN THE HARBOR...FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY PRETTY NASTY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ON WED ASSUMING THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AS ADVERTISED. DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE HEADLINES. FREQUENT STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD RAPIDLY TONIGHT...WITH 12 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR OUTER GA WATERS LATE. BUMPED DOWN WINDS AND SEAS A TAD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO HINT AT THE NEWER MODEL SUITE BEING WEAKER. WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES STARTING 3 PM TUE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE COAST...ALONG THE LAND-SEA INTERFACE. FARTHER INLAND...DO NOT EXPECT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LLVL MIXING WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. && .COASTAL IMPACTS...THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE COAST COULD HAVE MUCH WORSE COASTAL IMPACTS IF IT WERE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH A NEARLY DUE NORTH WIND THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE IMPACTS. COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR THREAT ATTM...GIVEN THAT THE PREDICTED TIDES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE 6 FT AT CHS AND NO HIGHER THAN 7.8 FT AT FT PULASKI...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. THE THE ONLY WAY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK. EROSION IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT AGAIN...A NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD BE OPTIMAL FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO AND SPS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE SEAS WILL BUILD NEARSHORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE ATTM. && .LAKE WINDS...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW 925 MB WINDS RAMPING UP QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH 40 KT OR GREATER BY 06Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WATER SHOW A GOOD MIXING PROFILE AND THUS WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MOULTRIE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. BEING THAT THE MODEL SUITE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT WEAKER WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SORT OF HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE LAKE ATTM. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN THE REC HEADLINE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND WARNING AT SOME POINT. && .AVIATION...HAVE UPDATED KSAV TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER START OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS TO AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT TERMINALS WILL BE OVERNIGHT...DURING WHICH VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CEILINGS TO MVFR AT KCHS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS...AS OFFSHORE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTS SOUTHEAST SC. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON FOR GAZ117-119-139-141. SC...WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON FOR SCZ048>051. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR SCZ045. MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ350-352-354-330. ...STORM WARNING FOR AMZ374. && $$ 79/JRL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 936 AM EST MON NOV 20 2006 .DISCUSSION... AREA RADARS INDICTE LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP IS BEING DRIVEN BY VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THESE FEATURES REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH IN AREA SOUNDINGS AT 12Z APPEARS ADEQUATE FOR SOME DENDRITE FORMATION. PRECIP WILL BE SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FT WITH MAINLY RAIN BELOW. THE WINDS UP TO 5000 FT ARE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LOWER POPS TO A CHANCE. WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN VALLEY AREA. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE... SOUTHEAST MONROE...AND UNICOI. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 410 AM PST MON NOV 20 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. && .DISCUSSION... TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS OF 10Z...SHOWERS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HANFORD TO SPOKANE. THIS LINE CORRELATES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850MB FRONT. AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PIVOT AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY...THE 850MB FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. ASIDE FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS MORNING FROM LA CROSSE TO PULLMAN SOUTHWARD TO LEWISTON. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON WILL LIKELY HAVE A DRY DAY. STRATUS HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TODAY. I HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES FROM THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. /GKOCH TUES THROUGH SUNDAY...FCST FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. TUES MORNINGS POST-FRONTAL DRY SLOT, AND ITS ACCOMPANYING STABILITY, WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY REGIME BY LATE TUES AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROF ADVANCES TO AROUND 125W. THE POOL OF STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WELL IN EXCESS OF 7CKM-1, WILL ACCOMPANY A SERIES OF VORT MAXES THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE INLAND NW THRU AT LEAST THURS AS THE LONG-WAVE TROF SLOWLY TRANSITIONS E THRU THE PAC NW. WATER VAPOR LOOPER THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS A NUMBER OF TIGHT VORT MAXES PASSING THRU THE OFFSHORE TROF. THESE VORT MAXES, WITH THEIR LOCALLY-ENHANCED INSTABILITY BELOW 500MB TEMPS OF -30C WILL LAUNCH A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGINNING TUES FOR ALL FCST ZONES. THO THE LG-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE WOLD- CLASS WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES, THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE ANY RESPONSE TO THE SHORT-WAVE FORCING FOR ASCENT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 3K FT MSL FOR THE CASCADE ZONES TUES NT AND WED...AND ONLY 4K FT MSL FOR THE LEWISTON REGION. WITH THE TRACK OF THE ABOVE- MENTIONED VORT MAXES...THE BEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL STRETCH FROM THE E SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...TO THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE NRN ID PANHANDLE. SNOW AMNTS APPROACHING ADVSY LEVELS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3K FT MSL TUES NT. WAS COMTEMPLATING A HEAVY SNOW WATCH FOR TUES NT FOR THE N ID MTNS BUT, PER COORDINATION, WE'LL JUST COVER THE SNOW THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. ITS NOT UNTIL FRI THAT THE UPPER TROF COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY E OUT OF THE REGION...LEADING TO A TREND TWD STABILIZATION IN THE MID-LEVELS AND DECREASING LG-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. BZ && .AVIATION...AS OF 12Z THE COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST WAS STRETCHING FROM KSZT TO KGEG TO KPSC. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB DEWPOINTS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE GOOD INDICATORS OR THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY DELINEATING THE SUBTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DROPPED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN 1000 FEET IN AREAS OF THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE CASCADES. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TODAY AS COOLER AIR IS ADVECTED ALOFT WEAKENING THE INVERSION...BUT WITHOUT A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TODAY STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO COMPLETELY DISLODGE. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LOCK LOW CLOUDS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. /GKOCH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 45 36 44 34 40 30 / 40 30 80 60 80 40 COEUR D'ALENE 45 36 45 34 40 30 / 60 40 80 70 80 50 PULLMAN 49 38 49 38 44 32 / 60 30 70 60 70 40 LEWISTON 51 41 52 38 48 35 / 50 30 60 50 60 50 COLVILLE 43 31 41 32 37 29 / 40 30 80 70 80 40 SANDPOINT 42 32 44 34 38 30 / 60 40 90 80 90 50 KELLOGG 44 36 46 36 39 30 / 60 50 90 80 90 60 MOSES LAKE 46 34 47 34 43 28 / 20 20 50 40 60 30 WENATCHEE 45 34 43 33 40 30 / 10 20 40 30 50 30 OMAK 46 35 44 32 39 26 / 10 20 70 50 70 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 430 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURES INCLUDE AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST ANCHORED BY A UPPER LOW THAT IS JUST NOW CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FLORIDA. IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF COLD LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 3-7C BELOW ZERO RANGE ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW WE SEE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE IMPULSES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING THE PROJECTED SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BE TAKING SHAPE. REGIONAL RADAR IS ALSO NOW SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACKING IN TOWARD THE GA/NE FLORIDA COASTLINES. THIS SURFACE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW / SURFACE LOW PAIR JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL BE SEEING PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND EVEN SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ROTATING SOUTH AND WEST FROM EASTERN GA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TIMING THESE IMPULSES AND HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE IS WHERE THIS FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE 552DM H5 UPPER LOW MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST EAST OF THE GA COAST WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING. STARTING THIS MORNING AND GOING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP FOR MAINLY SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF OUR GA ZONES INTO THE BIG BEND ZONES. HAVE ALREADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SEEN A FEW ECHOS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH KVLD REPORTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FURTHER WEST...GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OF THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND WILL GO WITH SILENT 10 POPS IN THE GRIDS. CLOUD-COVER WILL BE ANOTHER DIFFICULT VARIABLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER. EAST OF THE BORDER WILL BE GOING WITH PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER PERIODS OF SUN OR AT LEAST BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY EVEN HERE AS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE IN AND OUT OF THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER LOW. A BIT MORE LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED ALL AREAS BY THIS TIME. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM PAN OUT AND THE LOW PULLS NORTH TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN A PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE THANKSGIVING LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST ZONES WOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LONG WAY OUT AT THIS POINT AND WILL COVER IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS. && .MARINE... COASTAL WATERS IN BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF. THE DEEPENING LOW TO OUR EAST WILL HELP TO KEEP THE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS MORNING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TODAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT WILL SPREAD A DECK OF MOSTLY STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABV MVFR THOUGH CLD BASES COULD APPROACH 3 KFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA AND THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD COOL AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW WILL ALSO SPREAD CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOWER RH AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 56 37 61 38 / 20 20 10 10 PANAMA CITY 58 40 62 44 / 10 10 10 5 DOTHAN 54 37 60 39 / 10 10 10 5 ALBANY 53 38 60 40 / 20 30 20 10 VALDOSTA 54 38 57 40 / 20 30 30 10 CROSS CITY 58 37 59 39 / 20 30 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 12 PM EST TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX...DUVAL PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 339 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2006 .DISCUSSION...WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ARE THE MAIN STORY. BROAD RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE INDUCED CIRRUS IS CURRENTLY FILTERING ACROSS THE CWA IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MSAS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A LEE TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURES HAS KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER THE TROUGH AXIS HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OB FROM KLXN REPORTING CALM WINDS AND A TEMP OF 30F. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP TO PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BROADEN WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...WITH WINDS WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN RESPONSE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY EVEN GIVEN SHALLOW MIXING SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING (UP TO 900 MB VERSUS 920 MB TO THE EAST) AND MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT AM EXPECTING HIGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS. THE WILD CARD WITH TEMPS IS COVERAGE AND THICKNESS OF CIRRUS. MAIN CIRRUS SHIELD WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS SPILLING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD BE PRETTY THIN AND INTERMITTENT IN NATURE SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON TEMPS. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. IT AGAIN LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONLY MIX TO 900-920 MB WITH A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THIS LAYER. RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE IN DANGER AT KGRI...KEAR...AND KHSI. IF WE WERE TO MIX ANY HIGHER THAN 900 MB THEY WOULD BE SURE TO FALL...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SHALLOW MIXING WITH A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME CIRRUS MIGHT EDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO NOT PUT MUCH OF A DAMPER ON TEMPS. THE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE ULJ PUSHES EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL OFF FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYING TO THE NORTH...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ KB ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 110 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LATEST IR SATL IMGRY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FA. WITH DRY AIRMASS THEN IN PLACE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLDS SPILLING OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK DUE TO FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. DIURNAL SC HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE TO GO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATEST NAM/GFS RUNS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL TRENDS AS WELL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESSES IN SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. INITIAL FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DEALING WITH CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. 18Z RUC SHOWING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION LOBE MOVING INTO THE ILN CWA FROM THE NORTH. APPEARS SOME OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TIED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THIS FORCING PUSHES SOUTH IT SHOULD WEAKEN...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. AFTER THIS...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND ASIDE FROM A SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL AT TIMES SPILL OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL DOMINATE...THUS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES PRIMARILY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE..WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS MOS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE GIVEN THE COOLER MODEL TRENDS. /ISSUED 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006/ LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH HI PRES IN CONTROL. UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACRS OH VLY ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDCG UPR LO OFF SE ATLC COAST SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AS IT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE CAROLINAS THURS AND FRI. SOME CI CLOUDS MAY SPILL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO EASTERN FCST AREA THURS EVNG INTO FRI... OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD FREE THURS INTO FRI. A WEAKENING FRNTL BNDRY WILL MOVE ACRS THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT. AM EXPECTING ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. HI PRES THEN RETURNS FOR SAT AND SUN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPCH THE REGION MON WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORM THRU MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH AFTN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE NICER THANKSGIVING DAYS IN RECENT MEMORY...AS SRN FCST AREA MAY GET CLOSE TO 60 DEG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW ARE RACING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...THE U.P...EASTERN MONTANA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND NORTH DAKOTA. A 1032 MB RIDGE STRETCHES FROM LOUISANA NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND IS SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH AND IS DIVERTING THE JAMES BAY LOW NORTHEAST. A FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND EASTERN ONTARIO GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MODEL SHOW 40KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS OVER SOUTHEAST U.P. THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE LOW LEVELS...BELOW 7K FEET...SOUNDING FORECAST SHOWING THAT IT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA IS NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE SURFACE REPORTS AND KMQT-88D. THUS PLAN TO KEEP PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE SHOWING POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING. TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE U.P. ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS CLOUDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. THERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE ALREADY. THUS PLAN TO BUMP SOME OF THOSE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. DON'T SEE A NEED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TONIGHT FORECASTS EITHER. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1110 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...THE CHS CWFA IS DEALING WITH A RATHER DYNAMIC LOW PRES SYS OVR THE COASTAL WATERS THAT HAS PRODUCED THE EARLIEST WINTER SEASON SNOWFALL ON RECORD. THE IMPETUS FOR THE DEEPENING LOW IS A HIGHLY UNUSUAL H5 TROUGH DIGGING SWD INTO THE NRN GOMEX. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CONTINUE TO DIG S AND E ACROSS FL THRU TONIGHT...XPCT THE SFC LOW TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST WHILE ALSO DEEPENING AT THE SAME TIME AS IT FEEDS OFF OF THE LOW-LVL BAROCLINICITY B/W THE COOL TEMPS INLAND AND THE NEAR 80 DEG SSTS OVER THE GULF STREAM. MSAS SHOWS THE APPROXIMATELY 1008MB SFC LOW CENTERED NEARLY 200NM DUE E OF SAVANNAH GA WITH A TIGHT PRES GRAD EXTENDING TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND. ALONG WITH THIS PRES GRAD MOVG INLAND IS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REGARDING THE SNOWFALL...STARTING AT ABOUT 11Z MSAS AND WRF SHOWED 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARND 1330M NEAR THE EDISTO RIVER WHILE 1000-500 THICKNESSES WERE ARND 546 DAM. RUC HANDLED IT EVEN BETTER WITH 1000-850 THICKNESSES OF 1304M AND 1000-500 THICKNESS OF 537-540 DAM. 12Z KCLX SOUNDING SHOWED A POCKET OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARND 950MB THAT WAS DRAWN TWD THE SFC WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND THE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE THAT DEVELOPED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING MADE FOR RATHER LARGE SNOWFLAKES BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY BETWEEN 7AM-9AM THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS GRADUALLY ENDED...GIVING WAY TO LIGHT RAIN...BUT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THRU THE BULK OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUE TO BE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW. SNOWFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT ANY LONGER AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE 950MB FREEZING LAYER MIXES OUT AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. WILL EXPAND THE CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY S AND W...BUT KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE AS R-. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY CONSIDERING THE DROP THAT NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TOOK THIS MRNG WITH THE PRECIP. AM SEEING TEMPS SLOWLY RECOVER AND WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD THINNING OVR THE WATERS MOVG INLAND...WILL LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 40S THIS AFTN. RAINFALL TOTALS REPORTED THIS MRNG FROM CO-OP SITES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEADILY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. RAINFALL RATES ARE ABOUT 0.10-0.25 IN/HR ACCORDING TO SATELLITE ESTIMATES ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OFFSHORE MAY TRY TO MOVE ONSHORE. AM NOT XPCTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS QUITE YET SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY FLOOD STATEMENTS OTHER THAN THE CURRENT ESF ONGOING. && .AVIATION...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL SC. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCHS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF A LITTLE LONGER AT KSAV...BUT SHOULD BECOME STEADY BY LATE THIS MORNING WHEN PREVAILING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR. CEILINGS WILL STEADILY LOWER AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH IFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE WIND WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...IF NOT EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO BOTH TAF/S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MANAGE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. && .MARINE...SFC LOW PRES OFF THE SC COAST HAS AN IMPRESSIVE PRESENTATION ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. BASED ON SPARSE MARINE DATA...THE CENTER IS ABOUT 170 MI SE OF CHS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE RUC INITIALIZED WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS QUITE WELL AND ITS FCST SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. HAVE TWEAKED WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS WITH LATEST RUC RUN FOR THE REST OF TODAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE OVER THE WATERS BUT REDUCED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST INLAND AREAS A DECENT AMOUNT. WE SHOULD BE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KT ACROSS INLAND AREAS DUE TO THE SHARP LLVL INVERSION. ALL HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED. && .COASTAL IMPACTS...DESPITE OFFSHORE WINDS...LARGE SEAS AND BACKSWELL WITH 8-9 SECOND PERIODS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS TYBEE ISLAND...HUNTING ISLAND...EDISTO BEACH...FOLLY BEACH AND WILD DUNES. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SINCE THE NE SWELL MAY CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. && .LAKE WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT FOR THE LAST FEW HRS AT THE LAKE MARION OB SITE. THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IS LIKELY NOT TRULY SAMPLING THE OPEN LAKE WIND SPEED GIVEN ITS TERRESTRIAL TRAJECTORY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE MOULTRIE...MAINLY FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR GAZ117-119-139-142 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141 THROUGH TONIGHT. SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SCZ048>051 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ048>051 THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045 THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR AMZ350-352-374 ...GALE WARNING FOR AMZ330-354. && $$ JPC/JRL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 956 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... EDGE OF FIRST BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CWFA ATTM. STILL LOW LEVELS STILL QUITE DRY AS SEEN ON 12Z GSO RAOB. THAT SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ON ALL BUT THE LOWEST 50 OR SO MILLIBARS. EXPECT SURFACE AND VERY LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM...ALTHOUGH SLOWER IN THE EAST WITH CLOUDS. THAT SAID...SURFACE OBS TO THE EAST SHOWED SNOW THEN SLEET MIXING WITH THE RAIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND AS PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO BE JUST SLEET AT ONSET. THIS IS TYPICAL IN WINTER RAIN EVENTS WHERE A QUICK BURST OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WHEN PRECIP BEGINS THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THIS. LATEST RUC AND QUICK LOOK AT INCOMING 12Z NAM CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND WITH BULK OF PRECIP REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHC TYPE POPS SPREADING WEST. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE EAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL CYCLONE...AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN...AND CONTINUES TO OOZE GRADUALLY TO THE WEST. THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR TO BE DOING A SIMILARLY DECENT JOB IN HANDLING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP ATTM. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER IN PUSHING PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE NAM DOESN/T BEGIN TO PRECIPITATE OVER THE CWFA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE GFS SOLUTION...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS MORNING. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS THIS MORNING...OR EVEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE SLEET OR EVEN SNOW AS EVAPORATIONAL EFFECTS COOL THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. A CHANCE OF IP/-SN WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRODUCTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSURE THAT ANY PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AFTER TODAY...EACH OPERATIONAL AND NON-OPERATIONAL MODEL HAS ITS OWN IDEA ON THE FUTURE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND THEREFORE ITS EFFECTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE MAKES ME REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT (LIKELY POP WILL BE CARRIED THERE INTO THE 2ND PERIOD)...THE EXTENT OF THE WESTWARD PENETRATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. WE WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT AS FAR WEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS INTO WED AND WED NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS A NORTHWARD PUSH ALONG OR NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM...AND THEREFORE WRAPS A COUPLE OF MORE PRECIP BANDS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS BASICALLY DRY AFTER WED MORNING. AT THIS POINT...FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...AS WILL BANK ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT MAIN EFFECTS OF COASTAL LOW WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA BY FRIDAY. A TOKEN LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CARRIED THURSDAY NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY AND MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FAIRLY NON-DISTINCT WESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AVIATION... FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FT WILL GRADUALLY THIN AS FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND MOISTURE WRAPS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MORNING...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS...BUT WITH A FAIRLY BRISK N WIND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW. EXPECT MID AND LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER COASTAL NC TO EVENTUALLY WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FIRST BRINGING A MID LEVEL CEILING IN FROM THE EAST BY SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY A LOW CLOUD CEILING SOME TIME IN THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ONLY REACH KCLT WITH ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO MENTION IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THE CEILING THERE HAS BEEN KEPT ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR THE OUTLOOK...BUT LOW VFR OR EVEN MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT KCLT AS FORCING INCREASES...BUT VIS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED INITIALLY. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH ALL TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RWH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 300 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .DISCUSSION... 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR TO THE N OF UPR RDG ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/CUTOFF LO OVER THE SE CONUS DOMINATING THE US/CNDN BORDER DOWNSTREAM OF TROF OFF THE PAC NWS. FA STILL DOMINATED BY MILD SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HI PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOCAL 12Z GRB/APX RAOBS DEPICT A VERY DRY LOWER TROP WITH JUST SOME HIER RH ABV H6-65 OR SO. THERE IS A STRIPE OF MID CLD CROSSING LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-H85 TROF ATTENDANT TO SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO...AND BAND OF -SHRA EVIDENT UNDER THIS CLD OVER ERN LK SUP. HOWEVER...LLVL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FA IN RIGHT EXIT OF UPR JET CROSSING SCNTRL CAN LIMITING COVG AND INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. UPSTREAM AIRMASS OVER THE NRN PLAINS RELATIVELY WARM/DRY WITH PWAT AOB 0.50 INCH. 12Z H85 TEMPS ARND 10C FM BIS-MPX. MIXING TO JUST H9 ON INL/BIS SDNGS SUPPORT TMAX WELL INTO THE 50S/60S...AND SFC TEMPS OUT TO THE W ALREADY WELL INTO THE 40S AT 17Z. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU THANKSGIVING GENERALLY JUST WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS WITH FLOW OF RELATIVELY DRY PACIFIC AIR FCST TO CONTINUE. FOCUS FOR FRI SHIFTS TO TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV FCST TO DRIVE E OUT OF TROF NOW OVER THE PAC NW AND INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. FEW FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOWLY BLDG UPR RDG INTO THE UPR LKS THRU THU E OF TROFFING IN THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ONE SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF TROF TO THE W FCST TO LIFT NE THRU ONTARIO WED NGT...BUT GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FA SO DRY THERE WL BE NO PCPN OR EVEN APPRECIABLE CLD COVER WITH DYNAMICS TRACKING SO FAR THE N. TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL THRU THU. FOR TNGT...STEADY SW WIND SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING TO CURRENT DWPTS DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOK FOR THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL AND E...WHERE NAM/GFS SHOW SOMEWHAT WEAKER H925 FLOW IN MORE SHELTERED AREAS. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLD TMRW...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSUNNY. MIXING TO H9 ON GFS FCST SDNGS FOR WED YIELDS TMAX AOA 50...BUT READINGS WL BE A BIT COOLER OVER THE E DOWNWIND OF LK MI. LOOK FOR THE HIEST TEMPS OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE FCST SW WIND AOA 30KTS AT H925 WL DOWNSLOPE. THESE STEADY WINDS WL ACCENTUATE MIXING AND HELP BOOST TEMPS DESPITE LO SUN ANGLE...SO TENDED TOWARD THE HI SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. STRG SW WIND IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NW WED NGT WL BUOY TEMPS MOST OF THE NGT...BUT READINGS MAY FALL OFF LATE ONCE SFC TROF/ WEAKER PRES GRADIENT ARRIVES. EVEN SO...READINGS SHOULD BE HIER THAN TNGT. THANKSGIVING DAY WL BE ANOTHER MILD ONE...BUT WEAKER SSE FLOW/ H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TMRW ON THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK HI PRES RDG PLODDING TO THE E WL ENSURE DIURNAL TEMP RISE WL NOT BE AS SGNFT AS ON WED. EVEN SO...THE MERCURY SHOULD STILL REACH AOA 50 IN A NUMBER OF SPOTS CONSIDERING HI LO TEMPS THU MRNG. SHRTWV THAT LIFTS OUT OF PAC NW TROF PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS LATE THU NGT/FRI...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND DRAGGING A COLD FNT ACRS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS/HI HGTS AND LACK OF GLFMEX MSTR CONNECTION...THINK ANY ACCOMPANYING SHRA WL BE SCT AND ON THE LGT SIDE. PASSAGE OF MOST IMPRESSIVE DPVA/H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE NW AND JET SURGE/DRY SLOT OVER THE FA SUPPORT THE DRIER SCENARIO. TEMPS WL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...SO ANY PCPN THAT DOES OCCUR WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA. PCPN WL END QUICKLY LATE FRI WITH VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING TO THE SE OF SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK. OPERATIONAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION FM UPR RDGING OVER ECNTRL NAMERICA TO UPR TROFFING BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC HI PRES FCST TO DOMINATE ON SAT WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABV NORMAL. ANOTHER SHRTWV FCST TO PASS TO THE NW LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AND DRAG A STRONGER COLD FNT ACRS THE CWA. AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE SYS ON FRI...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MSTR...SO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS FOR -RA. OPERATIONAL 00Z UKMET/ECMWF FCST A DEEPER SFC LO TO DVLP OVER ONTARIO LATER SUN/MON...SO THESE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW OVER THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV AS ARCTIC HI PRES BLDS TOWARD SCNTRL CAN ON MON/TUE. HOWEVER...CNDN MODEL AND 06Z GFS ARE NOT AS DEEP AND ADVECT ONLY SHALLOW COLD AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE CAD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND A DEEPENING TROF THERE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER LO PRES RIDING NE TOWARD THE UPR LKS. 00Z GFS LOOKED TO BE A COMPROMISE BTWN THESE TWO CAMPS. GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE/NCEP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF/UKMET/00Z GFS SCENARIO...SO WL TEND TOWARD THOSE SOLNS FOR NOW. COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH/APX. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 514 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .UPDATE...BAND OF MODERATE DEFORMATION SNOWS IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH PORTIONS OF FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. REPORTS OF UP TO 1/2 INCH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH SNOW NOW STARTING TO COVER SOME ROADWAYS. HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. WL MONITOR TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM COUNTY WARNING POINTS IN CASE THE ADVISORY AREA NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SFC LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 NM ESE OF SAVANNAH COMBINED WITH A POTENT H5 LOW OVR THE SE COAST MAKING FOR AN EVENTFUL 24-48 HOURS OVR THE CHS CWFA. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLIEST WINTER SEASON SNOWFALLS RECORDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM CONVEYOR DYNAMICS WILL MAKE FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AM STILL DEALING WITH A BAND OF SNOW/SLEET MIX THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE BAND DRAGGING DOWN NEARLY FREEZING TEMPS AT ONLY 925-950 MB. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP IN INLAND PORTIONS FOR THIS EVE...BUT WILL NOT BE XPCTG FROZEN PRECIP CONCERNS BEYOND THIS EVE AS WARMER AIR BECOMES BETTER ENTRAINED INTO THE OVERALL SYSTEM AND KEEPS THE PRECIP AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TMRW NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE NE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THRU LATE TMRW WILL BE OVR NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHICH WOULD BE FURTHEST FROM THE BEST DYNAMICS... WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING BUT LESSER COVERAGE PREVENTS CATEGORICAL MENTION. POPS WILL STEADILY TAPER DOWN TMRW NIGHT INTO THU SUCH THAT BY THU NIGHT WILL BE ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST. QPF WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THERE BEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP CURRENTLY BUT MODEL FCSTS PUT OUT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HAVE TAKEN A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND RAIN WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AND THEREFORE AM NOT XPCTG WIDESPREAD FLOODING. BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR FURTHER UP THE COAST SO WILL LET THE ESF PRODUCT EXPIRE AND HANDLE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM STATEMENTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND HAVE IN FACT DROPPED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGAN. TEMPS BEFORE 12Z ACRS THE CWFA WERE IN THE LOWER 40S...THEN DROPPED TO THE 35-38 DEGREE RANGE ONCE THE WINTRY PRECIP BEGAN LATE THIS MRNG. TEMPS HAVE SINCE HELD FORT IN THE UPR 30S SO WILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 40S OVRNGT INTO TMRW CAPPING OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO ARND 50 TMRW AS WARMER AIR MIXES INTO THIS SYSTEM ON THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. BETTER DIURNALS WILL THEN OCCUR TMRW NIGHT INTO THU AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...SKIES CLEAR OUT...AND STRONGER DAYTIME WARMING WITH IMPROVED NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDS OCCUR. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI...AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC TO GET ESTABLISHED. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT MON THROUGH TUE...CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MORE SEASONAL READINGS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AVIATION...IFR CONDS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS TO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THRU THE NIGHT AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MOD/HVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES MAY PUSH VSBY INTO IFR CATEGORY THIS EVE...BUT AFTER DARK VSBYS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. CONDS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO MVFR TMRW MRNG THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TWD VFR BY LATE TMRW NIGHT BUT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM BEING SLOW TO EXIT...AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED VFR CONDS WILL BE SEEN THRU TMRW AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 15 KT AND GUSTS ARND 25-30 KT. MARINE...VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH AN APPROX 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED 170 MILES SE OF CHS. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXPANDS ITS DOMAIN N AND W. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OF ALL THE MODELS...THE RUC HAS CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE ESPECIALLY WELL AND SHOW A REALISTIC SHORT-TERM PROG FOR THE SYSTEM AND ITS WIND FIELD. HAVE UTILIZED THE RUC DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE SPREAD CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING N ON WED AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW TO MOVE OUT AS WELL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS WOULD INCREASE AT ALL OVER ANY OF OUR WATERS...HOWEVER SOME DECREASE IS DEPICTED ON OCCASION. BUOY AND MOVING SHIP OBS ARE DEFINITELY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE RARELY SHOWING UP...MAINLY JUST OVER THE EXTREME OUTER GA WATERS IN SOME GUSTS. CARO-COOPS BUOYS ARE LOCATED IN A GOOD POSITION TO SAMPLE THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS. THEY HAVE BEEN DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE IN THE LAST FOUR HRS. IT DOES LOOK AS IF THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE HARBOR. THEREFORE...THE PLAN IS TO LOWER THE NEARSHORE SC STORM WARNINGS TO GALE WARNINGS AND EXTEND THROUGH 06Z THU. WILL RUN THE NEARSHORE GA AND CHAS HARBOR GALE WARNING THROUGH 22Z WED. WILL MAINTAIN THE OUTER GA WATERS STORM WARNING THROUGH 11Z WED...AFTER WHICH IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE PRES GRAD DECREASES. INLAND WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15-25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LUCKILY...EVEN THE ELEVATED BRIDGES HAVE NOT SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS MUCH ABOVE ABOUT 25 MPH WHICH HAS PRECLUDED ANY NECESSARY CLOSINGS. NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRES CENTER MOVES NORTH. PLAN TO CANCEL THE ENTIRE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS CRITERIA ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE MET. WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY OR WINDY WORDING IN THE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT FAVORABLE FETCH MAY NECESSITATE SCA/S ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. COASTAL IMPACTS...LARGE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONTINUE TO ENTER THE SURF ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...GAGING THE WAVES AT THE COAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF WAVE HEIGHT BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS. SPECTRAL DATA FROM BUOY 41004 AND 41008 INDICATE SOME 5 FT BREAKERS WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HRS BEFORE THE TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z WEDNESDAY. MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT EARLY. LAKE WINDS...WINDS ON THE LAKE HAVE CONTINUED OUT OF THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE BEGINS ON WED. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SENSOR IS NOT FULLY SAMPLING THE OPEN LAKE WINDS...DO NOT THINK THE WINDS ARE ENOUGH HIGHER IN THOSE AREAS TO JUSTIFY A HIGH WIND WARNING /SUSTAINED 35 KT OR GUSTS TO 50 KT/. THEREFORE...PLAN TO DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND EXTEND THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR GAZ088 UNTIL 8 PM. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ045 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SCZ048>051 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR SCZ040-42-043 UNTIL 8 PM. MARINE...STORM WARNING AMZ374. ...GALE WARNING AMZ330-350-352-354. && $$ ST sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 449 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .AVIATION UPDATE...RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT PER 5-MIN OBSERVATIONS. REPORTS OF SNOW ARE BEING RECEIVED UPSTREAM ACROSS JASPER COUNTY. AMENDED THE KSAV TAF TO INCLUDE A TEMP GROUP FOR 4SM RASN FOR THE NXT FEW HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SFC LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 NM ESE OF SAVANNAH COMBINED WITH A POTENT H5 LOW OVR THE SE COAST MAKING FOR AN EVENTFUL 24-48 HOURS OVR THE CHS CWFA. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLIEST WINTER SEASON SNOWFALLS RECORDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM CONVEYOR DYNAMICS WILL MAKE FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AM STILL DEALING WITH A BAND OF SNOW/SLEET MIX THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE BAND DRAGGING DOWN NEARLY FREEZING TEMPS AT ONLY 925-950 MB. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP IN INLAND PORTIONS FOR THIS EVE...BUT WILL NOT BE XPCTG FROZEN PRECIP CONCERNS BEYOND THIS EVE AS WARMER AIR BECOMES BETTER ENTRAINED INTO THE OVERALL SYSTEM AND KEEPS THE PRECIP AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TMRW NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE NE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THRU LATE TMRW WILL BE OVR NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHICH WOULD BE FURTHEST FROM THE BEST DYNAMICS... WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING BUT LESSER COVERAGE PREVENTS CATEGORICAL MENTION. POPS WILL STEADILY TAPER DOWN TMRW NIGHT INTO THU SUCH THAT BY THU NIGHT WILL BE ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST. QPF WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THERE BEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP CURRENTLY BUT MODEL FCSTS PUT OUT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HAVE TAKEN A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND RAIN WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AND THEREFORE AM NOT XPCTG WIDESPREAD FLOODING. BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR FURTHER UP THE COAST SO WILL LET THE ESF PRODUCT EXPIRE AND HANDLE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM STATEMENTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND HAVE IN FACT DROPPED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGAN. TEMPS BEFORE 12Z ACRS THE CWFA WERE IN THE LOWER 40S...THEN DROPPED TO THE 35-38 DEGREE RANGE ONCE THE WINTRY PRECIP BEGAN LATE THIS MRNG. TEMPS HAVE SINCE HELD FORT IN THE UPR 30S SO WILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 40S OVRNGT INTO TMRW CAPPING OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO ARND 50 TMRW AS WARMER AIR MIXES INTO THIS SYSTEM ON THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. BETTER DIURNALS WILL THEN OCCUR TMRW NIGHT INTO THU AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...SKIES CLEAR OUT...AND STRONGER DAYTIME WARMING WITH IMPROVED NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDS OCCUR. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI...AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC TO GET ESTABLISHED. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT MON THROUGH TUE...CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MORE SEASONAL READINGS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AVIATION...IFR CONDS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS TO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THRU THE NIGHT AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MOD/HVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES MAY PUSH VSBY INTO IFR CATEGORY THIS EVE...BUT AFTER DARK VSBYS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. CONDS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO MVFR TMRW MRNG THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TWD VFR BY LATE TMRW NIGHT BUT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM BEING SLOW TO EXIT...AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED VFR CONDS WILL BE SEEN THRU TMRW AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 15 KT AND GUSTS ARND 25-30 KT. MARINE...VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH AN APPROX 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED 170 MILES SE OF CHS. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXPANDS ITS DOMAIN N AND W. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OF ALL THE MODELS...THE RUC HAS CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE ESPECIALLY WELL AND SHOW A REALISTIC SHORT-TERM PROG FOR THE SYSTEM AND ITS WIND FIELD. HAVE UTILIZED THE RUC DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE SPREAD CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING N ON WED AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW TO MOVE OUT AS WELL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS WOULD INCREASE AT ALL OVER ANY OF OUR WATERS...HOWEVER SOME DECREASE IS DEPICTED ON OCCASION. BUOY AND MOVING SHIP OBS ARE DEFINITELY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE RARELY SHOWING UP...MAINLY JUST OVER THE EXTREME OUTER GA WATERS IN SOME GUSTS. CARO-COOPS BUOYS ARE LOCATED IN A GOOD POSITION TO SAMPLE THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS. THEY HAVE BEEN DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE IN THE LAST FOUR HRS. IT DOES LOOK AS IF THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE HARBOR. THEREFORE...THE PLAN IS TO LOWER THE NEARSHORE SC STORM WARNINGS TO GALE WARNINGS AND EXTEND THROUGH 06Z THU. WILL RUN THE NEARSHORE GA AND CHAS HARBOR GALE WARNING THROUGH 22Z WED. WILL MAINTAIN THE OUTER GA WATERS STORM WARNING THROUGH 11Z WED...AFTER WHICH IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE PRES GRAD DECREASES. INLAND WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15-25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LUCKILY...EVEN THE ELEVATED BRIDGES HAVE NOT SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS MUCH ABOVE ABOUT 25 MPH WHICH HAS PRECLUDED ANY NECESSARY CLOSINGS. NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRES CENTER MOVES NORTH. PLAN TO CANCEL THE ENTIRE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS CRITERIA ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE MET. WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY OR WINDY WORDING IN THE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT FAVORABLE FETCH MAY NECESSITATE SCA/S ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. COASTAL IMPACTS...LARGE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONTINUE TO ENTER THE SURF ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...GAGING THE WAVES AT THE COAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF WAVE HEIGHT BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS. SPECTRAL DATA FROM BUOY 41004 AND 41008 INDICATE SOME 5 FT BREAKERS WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HRS BEFORE THE TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z WEDNESDAY. MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT EARLY. LAKE WINDS...WINDS ON THE LAKE HAVE CONTINUED OUT OF THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE BEGINS ON WED. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SENSOR IS NOT FULLY SAMPLING THE OPEN LAKE WINDS...DO NOT THINK THE WINDS ARE ENOUGH HIGHER IN THOSE AREAS TO JUSTIFY A HIGH WIND WARNING /SUSTAINED 35 KT OR GUSTS TO 50 KT/. THEREFORE...PLAN TO DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND EXTEND THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ045 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SCZ048>051 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MARINE...STORM WARNING AMZ374. ...GALE WARNING AMZ330-350-352-354. && $$ ST sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 335 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SFC LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 NM ESE OF SAVANNAH COMBINED WITH A POTENT H5 LOW OVR THE SE COAST MAKING FOR AN EVENTFUL 24-48 HOURS OVR THE CHS CWFA. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLIEST WINTER SEASON SNOWFALLS RECORDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM CONVEYOR DYNAMICS WILL MAKE FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AM STILL DEALING WITH A BAND OF SNOW/SLEET MIX THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE BAND DRAGGING DOWN NEARLY FREEZING TEMPS AT ONLY 925-950 MB. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP IN INLAND PORTIONS FOR THIS EVE...BUT WILL NOT BE XPCTG FROZEN PRECIP CONCERNS BEYOND THIS EVE AS WARMER AIR BECOMES BETTER ENTRAINED INTO THE OVERALL SYSTEM AND KEEPS THE PRECIP AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TMRW NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE NE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THRU LATE TMRW WILL BE OVR NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHICH WOULD BE FURTHEST FROM THE BEST DYNAMICS... WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING BUT LESSER COVERAGE PREVENTS CATEGORICAL MENTION. POPS WILL STEADILY TAPER DOWN TMRW NIGHT INTO THU SUCH THAT BY THU NIGHT WILL BE ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST. QPF WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THERE BEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP CURRENTLY BUT MODEL FCSTS PUT OUT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HAVE TAKEN A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND RAIN WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AND THEREFORE AM NOT XPCTG WIDESPREAD FLOODING. BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR FURTHER UP THE COAST SO WILL LET THE ESF PRODUCT EXPIRE AND HANDLE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM STATEMENTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND HAVE IN FACT DROPPED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGAN. TEMPS BEFORE 12Z ACRS THE CWFA WERE IN THE LOWER 40S...THEN DROPPED TO THE 35-38 DEGREE RANGE ONCE THE WINTRY PRECIP BEGAN LATE THIS MRNG. TEMPS HAVE SINCE HELD FORT IN THE UPR 30S SO WILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 40S OVRNGT INTO TMRW CAPPING OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO ARND 50 TMRW AS WARMER AIR MIXES INTO THIS SYSTEM ON THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. BETTER DIURNALS WILL THEN OCCUR TMRW NIGHT INTO THU AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...SKIES CLEAR OUT...AND STRONGER DAYTIME WARMING WITH IMPROVED NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDS OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI...AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC TO GET ESTABLISHED. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT MON THROUGH TUE...CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MORE SEASONAL READINGS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...IFR CONDS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS TO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THRU THE NIGHT AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MOD/HVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES MAY PUSH VSBY INTO IFR CATEGORY THIS EVE...BUT AFTER DARK VSBYS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. CONDS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO MVFR TMRW MRNG THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TWD VFR BY LATE TMRW NIGHT BUT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM BEING SLOW TO EXIT...AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED VFR CONDS WILL BE SEEN THRU TMRW AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 15 KT AND GUSTS ARND 25-30 KT. && .MARINE...VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH AN APPROX 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED 170 MILES SE OF CHS. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXPANDS ITS DOMAIN N AND W. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OF ALL THE MODELS...THE RUC HAS CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE ESPECIALLY WELL AND SHOW A REALISTIC SHORT-TERM PROG FOR THE SYSTEM AND ITS WIND FIELD. HAVE UTILIZED THE RUC DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE SPREAD CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING N ON WED AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW TO MOVE OUT AS WELL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS WOULD INCREASE AT ALL OVER ANY OF OUR WATERS...HOWEVER SOME DECREASE IS DEPICTED ON OCCASION. BUOY AND MOVING SHIP OBS ARE DEFINITELY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE RARELY SHOWING UP...MAINLY JUST OVER THE EXTREME OUTER GA WATERS IN SOME GUSTS. CARO-COOPS BUOYS ARE LOCATED IN A GOOD POSITION TO SAMPLE THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS. THEY HAVE BEEN DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE IN THE LAST FOUR HRS. IT DOES LOOK AS IF THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE HARBOR. THEREFORE...THE PLAN IS TO LOWER THE NEARSHORE SC STORM WARNINGS TO GALE WARNINGS AND EXTEND THROUGH 06Z THU. WILL RUN THE NEARSHORE GA AND CHAS HARBOR GALE WARNING THROUGH 22Z WED. WILL MAINTAIN THE OUTER GA WATERS STORM WARNING THROUGH 11Z WED...AFTER WHICH IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE PRES GRAD DECREASES. INLAND WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15-25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LUCKILY...EVEN THE ELEVATED BRIDGES HAVE NOT SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS MUCH ABOVE ABOUT 25 MPH WHICH HAS PRECLUDED ANY NECESSARY CLOSINGS. NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRES CENTER MOVES NORTH. PLAN TO CANCEL THE ENTIRE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS CRITERIA ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE MET. WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY OR WINDY WORDING IN THE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT FAVORABLE FETCH MAY NECESSITATE SCA/S ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. && .COASTAL IMPACTS...LARGE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONTINUE TO ENTER THE SURF ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...GAGING THE WAVES AT THE COAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF WAVE HEIGHT BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS. SPECTRAL DATA FROM BUOY 41004 AND 41008 INDICATE SOME 5 FT BREAKERS WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HRS BEFORE THE TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z WEDNESDAY. MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT EARLY. && .LAKE WINDS...WINDS ON THE LAKE HAVE CONTINUED OUT OF THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE BEGINS ON WED. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SENSOR IS NOT FULLY SAMPLING THE OPEN LAKE WINDS...DO NOT THINK THE WINDS ARE ENOUGH HIGHER IN THOSE AREAS TO JUSTIFY A HIGH WIND WARNING /SUSTAINED 35 KT OR GUSTS TO 50 KT/. THEREFORE...PLAN TO DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND EXTEND THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ045 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SCZ048>051 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MARINE...STORM WARNING AMZ374. ...GALE WARNING AMZ330-350-352-354. && $$ JPC/JRL/JRJ sc