AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 905 AM PST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM...DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING WELL ENTRENCHED INTO THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EVOLVING TODAY AS MORE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE DISTRICT TO PRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATING 700MB TEMP/S FROM MINUS 13 TO 15 DEG-C OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500MB TEMP/S DOWN TO MINUS 30 DEG-C. THESE TEMP/S TRANSLATE IN SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1000 FEET. WHILE THE COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL RESIDES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MODEL CAPE AND LI VALUES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KINGS/TULARE AND KERN COUNTY LINE AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY FOR AN ADDITION DAY OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. YET...BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON/S THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS MADE IT DOWN TO THE CITY OF TAFT...IN KERN COUNTY...AT JUST UNDER 1000 FEET. HIGHER UP...SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAVE REPORTED FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR... WITH MORE PRECIP EXPECTED AS SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE STARTING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH TODAY...WITH SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN SHOW AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY AND BEYOND...A UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE GRADUALLY EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPERING OFF...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISTRICT SUNDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS CONTINUING BELOW 1500 FEET. BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD SYSTEM...STILL LOOKING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KERN MOUNTAINS CONTINUE IN EFFECT...AS THE PASSING SYSTEMS WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO EASILY VERIFY THESE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH LOCAL MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND -SHRA. AFT 20Z MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH LCL IFR AND POSSIBLE TSRA. CEILINGS WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. KERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON PST SATURDAY. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ MOLINA ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 504 AM MST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT ACROSS PAC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONG 120+ KT JET CORE ROUNDING BASE OF SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ARIZONA AND NOSING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ATTM. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING NEAR LHX WITH WEAK SFC COLD FRONT LYING JUST NORTH OF THE PALMER DVD WITH AS MAIN H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING BACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN UTAH ATTM. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO WITH A FEW ISOLATED ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS ATTM. TODAY...JET CORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...ALLOWING H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL X-SECTIONS CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT...AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z SAT. HAVE NOT HAD MANY SNOW REPORTS ATTM...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW... HEAVY AT TIMES...ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS...LA GARITAS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AS H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...AND WITH CURRENT DRY SLOT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MIXING DOWN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE UPGRADED CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 231-237 AND ADDED ZONE 230 AS WELL. SHOULD SEE RHS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ALONG WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP 45 MPH ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS...WITH RHS STAYING AOB 15 PERCENT AND A TAD WEAKER WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATING H5 MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SUITE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS...WITH SOME VIRGA BOMBS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS. LIFTED INDICES PROGGED AROUND ZERO AS WELL ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS...AND COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. TONIGHT...MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SFC LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVES EAST WITH JET MAX MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND NEXT JET MAX BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING INTENSITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT...BEFORE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SATURDAY. WINDS TO DECOUPLE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND HAVE COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. -MW .LONG TERM... (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ...PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WIND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE PLAINS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON... REALLY NO DISTINCT LETUP IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW MACHINE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BRINGING LOTS OF NEEDED SNOWFALL. NOT NEARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE UP THE HUGE DEFICITS IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT AT LEAST LESSENING THE BLOW OF A DRY WINTER. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE EVERY 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD DELIVER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CREST OF THE SAN JUANS...INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND CUMBRES PASSES. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SNOW INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY. WELL...WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH...YOU MIGHT EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS. INDEED...IT LOOKS GENERALLY WINDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS COMBINATION WILL TEND TO DRAW A STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS...PULLING DOWN THE WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED VALUES OVER 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN THIS DAY...DUE MAINLY TO THE WIND. RHS ARE A BIT QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY PROJECTING 15-20% ON THE PLAINS...WHICH ISN'T QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. BUT...IF RHS DROP LOWER...THEN WE'LL DEFINITELY NEED SOMETHING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THERE IS SOME SMALL THREAT FOR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PLAINS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BEST WINDOW WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SORT OF WEEK FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT TO HELP FOCUS THINGS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE DOESN'T LOOK VERY GOOD AT THIS TIME...SO PROBABLY JUST SOME BRIEF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HELPED BY A LITTLE WEAK UPSLOPE. AFTER MONDAY...RATHER ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW PATTERN SETS UP OVER COLORADO. MEANS CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME SNOWS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT MAINLY JUST WIND AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST. PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AGAIN AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK. LW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ230-COZ231-COZ232-COZ233-COZ234-COZ235-COZ236- COZ237. SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-COZ060. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066. && $$ 23/50 co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 906 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW TWO COUNTIES AWAY FROM OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHILE RESULTANT OUTFLOW IS A MERE COUNTY AWAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WRT PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE SHIELD AND CORRECTLY STALLED IT JUST WEST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINE TO PERHAPS ENHANCE IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...BUT OUTFLOW INDUCED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WARRANT CURRENT LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS THAT LOOKS TO HINDER CONVECTION RATHER THAN INCREASE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. ETA12 CAPE PROFILES SUPPORT THIS BY KEEPING 500 TO 1000 J/KG VALUES NORTH OF THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT PACKAGE WAS A SLIGHT TWEAK DOWNWARD IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. WE DO HAVE SOME CLOUDINESS TO DEAL WITH AND WE HAVE NOT REALIZED GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS THE COOLER MAV BUT DID LOWER CURRENT GRIDDED VALUES. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY DROP SCEC FOR THE MORNING ISSUANCE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ DEESE/HESS/KERNS fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 845 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 .UPDATE...LATEST WATER VAPOR STLT AND RUC SHOW UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE... CENTERED SE OF THE AREA...WHILE THE MSAS ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE ATLANTIC/ ACROSS THE NORTH CWFA/ TO THE NE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A S/W TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NE U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL RELAX TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HANDLES THE FEW MINOR CHANGES/ MAINLY WIND ISSUES/ NICELY. NO UPDATE REQUIRED. && .MARINE...SCEC CONTINUES UNTIL 10 THIS MORNING AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW THE SCEC TO EXPIRE. WILL MONITOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MAY ADD A GUSTY MID/LATE MORNING REMARK TO THE FORECAST WHEN IT IS ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS FINE WITH THE ONLY CONCERN BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG LATER TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ 09/RKR fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 741 PM MST FRI MAR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION...JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING WITH HUMIDITIES GOING UP AND TEMPERATURES GOING DOWN. MODELS NOT DOING WELL WITH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION. THEY ARE NOT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST WITH SURFACE LOW OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH. THE RUC40/RUC13 HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND UPDATED WITH IT AND REALITY. ALSO RAISED DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WAY ABOVE WHAT WAS FORECAST...AND ALSO UPDATED WITH THE RUC/REALITY. WITH AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR...CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT TO FAR ABOVE FORECAST MINS...AND EXPECTED DECREASE OF WINDS LATER TONIGHT...LOWERED MINS 3 TO 5 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION IS NOT MATERIALIZING. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 156 PM MST FRI MAR 10 2006 .UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FIRST PERIOD TO INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO. LATEST OBS SHOWING GUSTS JUST OVER 40KTS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. LATEST RUC HANDLING THOSE GUSTS WELL AND GENERALLY KEEPS THEM ACROSS CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN WALLACE AND SHERMAN COUNTIES OF KANSAS PUSH 40KTS BUT FOR NOW WILL START WITH THOSE COLORADO COUNTIES. CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS OUR CWA BUT SEEMS BETTER MOISTURE STILL RESIDING TO OUR EASTERN/FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SO IT CANT BE RULED OUT. CURRENT POP/WX GRIDS HANDLING SITUATION WELL SO NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-COZ253- COZ254. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ091-COZ092. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 955 AM MST FRI MAR 10 2006 .UPDATE...HAVE MADE NUMEROUS UPDATES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD GRIDS AS WE AWAIT INCREASING DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHILE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND AT THIS POINT ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS DO NOT APPEAR A THREAT. WITH NAM/RUC 2M TEMPERATURES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS MID 50S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TOWARD THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS WHERE VALUES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. HENCE...THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN IN TACT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE A BIT AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BELOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRODUCE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE OUTLINED AN AREA NORTH OF A YUMA COUNTY COLORADO TO THOMAS AND GRAHAM COUNTIES OF KANSAS FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RATHER COLD WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 7500 FT MSL. SHOULD A STORM/STORMS GO UP HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL UPDATE THE HWO ACCORDINGLY AS WELL. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-COZ253- COZ254. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 254 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... LOW LEVEL FLOW ALREADY TURNING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH RUC INDICATING 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 850 MB BY 06Z. AIR MASS ALONG THE GULF COAST IS PLENTY JUICY...MORE SO THAN IT WAS BEFORE THE PAST FEW SEVERE OUTBREAKS. THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOS DEW POINT GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. EXPECT MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE CURRENTLY /AT 20Z/ 80 DEGREES AS CLOSE AS GREENWOOD MS AND PINE BLUFF AR. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY AND STABLE THIS EVENING...SO POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WILL BE MADE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY TONIGHT...PRIOR TO THICKENING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS. LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 60 KNOTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...PER 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 60 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IS RATHER HIGH. WILL UPDATE THE ESFPAH PRODUCT CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. ON SUNDAY...CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. GFS BRINGS IT AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KY AND SE MISSOURI BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ETA STALLS IT CLOSE TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI. IN EITHER CASE...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN TO 50 PLUS KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL...WITH A 500 MB JET STREAK OF 70 PLUS KNOTS. BEYOND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEEK. A MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE LOWER/MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK. 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING POPS AT THIS TIME. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 920 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW GENERAL WRN TROF/ ERN RDG UPR PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS. FA UNDER THE DOMINATION OF SHRTWV RDG STRETCHING FM LK WINNIPEG INTO WI...WITH SFC RDG AXIS FM NW ONTARIO INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE W OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO NOW ENTERING SW QUEBEC. QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD OBSVD ACRS THE FA IN THE LGT NNW FLOW BTWN THE INCOMING RDG/DEPARTING LO AND UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF. 11Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW AND 12Z APX SDNG SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MSTR BLO H8-825...BUT THE SC HAS CLRD AT IWD WITH THE APRCH OF THE RDG AXIS AND DRIER LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX SDNG AND TAMDAR SDNGS FM HIB/EAU. H85 TEMPS WITHIN THE THERMAL TROF NO LOWER THAN -6C OR SO...NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV NOTED OVER IA AND MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE FA. BUT 12Z MPX SDNG RATHER DRY WITH JUST SOME HIER RH NOTED ARND H7-65...SO MAINLY JUST MID/HI CLD ACCOMPANYING THIS SYS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. LATEST RUC/NAM SHOW SFC RDG AXIS MOVING OVER THE FA THIS AFTN. EXPECT ADVCTN OF DRIER AIR UNDER RDG AXIS/INSOLATION TO DRY LLVLS OUT AND BRK UP SC W-E. HOWEVER...SC WL LINGER AT ERY MOST OF THE DAY WHERE H925 THERMAL TROF DEPARTS LATEST. SHRTWV TO THE SW FCST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN...SO EXPECT BKN MID/HI CLD TO FOLLOW SC DEPARTURE. INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT AT ALL COLD. MIXING TO H875 ON MPX SDNG WOULD YIELD A TMAX OF 52. MIXING TO SAME HGT ON RUC FCST SDNGS WOULD CAUSE THE MERCURY TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR W. INCRSG MID/HI CLD MIGHT HOLD READINGS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT WL GENERALLY ADJUST FCST TMAX UP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. HI TEMPS WL BE HELD LOWER BY LK SUP MODIFICATION OF WLY FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND LONGER DURATION OF LO CLD OVER THE E. KC .LONG TERM... THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE CWA IS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW NOW. PLENTY OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS WATER VAPOR SHOWING INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOWERS WITH BEEHIVE LOOK ON THE WEST COAST WITH SOME LIGHTNING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE CWA ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOKS WIDE OPEN FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. DRY SLOT OF STORM ALSO LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON BASED ON 1000-500 MB RH OFF THE NAM. STRONG 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITS SAT EVENING ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. NAM SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE I280K-I295K SURFACES RETURNING SAT MORNING AND DRY SLOT SHOWS UP WELL ON THE I295K SURFACE 00Z SUN OVER THE CWA. GFS SIMILAR TO THE NAM...BUT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE NAM WITH THE DRY SLOT AND ALSO BRINGING IN THE PCPN AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER EAST. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND GO STRONGER THAN THE GFS HAS FOR THE SFC LOW...BUT WILL NOT GO AS FAR EAST AS THE NAM DOES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH MSP. FORECASTING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SAT WITH NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING LIFTED INDICES AT 850 MB DOWN TO -2C OR SO AND GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE ELEVATED CAPE AT 850 MB UP TO 300 J/KG AND GFS HAS CAPE UP TO 300 J/KG FOR MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. SPC EVEN HAS THE AREA IN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH LOOKS GOOD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING ACROSS TO HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN THEM AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS UNUSUAL TO HAVE SEVERE WEATHER IN MARCH IN THE U.P...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL INSTANCES OF IT HAPPENING BEFORE IN MARCH AND SATURDAY COULD BE THE DAY FOR LARGE HAIL. GOING WITH A COMPROMISE OF SOLUTIONS...KEPT THUNDER IN IN THE EVENING FOR THE CWA AND ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THINK THE DRY SLOT WILL BE COMING INTO THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON AND GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. PARALLEL NAM DOES AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND THIS COULD BE A POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM FOR THE AREA. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST AND CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. IF THE GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED...IT IS PUTTING OUT ABOUT .75 INCH OF QPF WHICH WOULD DEFINITELY BE HEADLINES FOR THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MODEL CONTINUITY IN SOLUTIONS AND SEE IF THE NAM PICKS UP ON THIS WAVE. WILL ALSO BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE SYSTEM OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HWO. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER OTHERWISE. KEPT DRIZZLE IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING. PUT THIS IN FOR EARLY SUN MORNING AS WELL BEFORE DRY AIR MOVES IN AND WRAPAROUND PART OF STORM IS GONE. MICHELS && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 942 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... WATCHING A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONGEAL NEAR THE REGION TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MO OZARKS. A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS FORTHCOMING TO SHIFT COVERAGE OF ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL WESTWARD TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. WAT VAP IMAGERY AND 500MB VORTICITY FROM RECENT RUC INITIALIZATIONS SHOWS AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A LOW LEVEL JET WAS STRENGTHENING...AS NOTED BY REGIONAL PROFILERS...AND ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. WITH TIME...THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 50KTS AND SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. A 100KT ULJ CORE WAS ALSO NOTED COINCIDENT WITH THE SHEAR AXIS ENHANCING UPPER SUPPORT. AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH CENTRAL TX AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF ARDMORE OK EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFF ARK. A BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NOTICED ON THE REGION 88D IMAGERY THIS EVENING. WITH NO SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCE NOTED BEHIND THIS FEATURE...IT IS LIKELY SOME SORT OF REFLECTION OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 300K LEVEL (WHERE LLJ IS MOST NOTED). THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10KFT AND HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SW MO BORDER. THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH 40-45KTS AT THE DE QUEEN AND NEODESHA PROFILERS IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STEADILY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL BE PRONE TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT (MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT). AS THE LLJ VEERS WITH TIME THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OK HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND FEEL THAT IS PRUDENT TO SHIFT THE RISK AREA JUST A TAD TO THE WEST TO ALIGN WITH THE FEATURES NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED IN NATURE AND ANY WIND RISK IS MINIMAL AT BEST. AM ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HAILERS AND NOTHING WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION...WITH COMBATING A RATHER STOUT DRY LAYER... QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GOING POPS ARE STRATIFIED WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THEM...LOWERING VALUES A BIT IN WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASING A BIT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... CHALLENGES O'PLENTY WITH THE FORECAST TODAY...WITH THE MOST PRESSING CONCERN BEING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RATHER DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH 991MB LEE SIDE CYCLONE HAVING DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF DENVER AS ONE SPEED MAX BEGINS TO EJECT OUT THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS WITH REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK ALREADY SHOWING A 20-40KT SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW ESTABLISHED FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME UNCONTAMINATED SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING AN INCH WELL ONSHORE NOW. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING LOOK FOR A STRONG 50KT+ LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE OZARKS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE WITH POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING MUCAPES OF 500-1250 J/KG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THOSE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO ARE SHOWING A NON-NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS SO A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES KEPT POPS MODEST TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN OZARKS CLOSER TO THE PROGGED STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/TRANSPORT. LOW DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SAG INTO OUR CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON BRINGING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...PROBABLY UNREALISTICALLY SO WITH TOO MUCH CAPPING LIKELY BEING MIXED AWAY. SUSPECT THE NAM FORECAST OF A COMPLETELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON ISNT REALISTIC AND WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER FORCING AND ONLY MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HARD TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SUPERCELLS...SO ITS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGEST A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WOULD THEN TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LIKELY LEADING TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALL PARAMETERS (INTENSE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION WRT THE BOUNDARY) IN THE GFS REALLY SEEM TO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...NOGAPS...AND UKMET...THE NAM IS SINGING A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TUNE AND NOT EJECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS AND ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO VEER MORE WESTERLY AND LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY HOPE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR THE NAM AMONG ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS DECIDED TO DISCOUNT ITS SOLUTION...HOWEVER IT DID STICK ENOUGH DOUBT INTO MY MIND ABOUT SUNDAYS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE HWO TONED DOWN A BIT. IF THE GFS DOES INDEED PAN OUT THOUGH...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VERY INTERESTING INDEED. SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF COOLER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S SYSTEM WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD MEAN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IZZI && .AVIATION... TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSRA TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED IN NATURE AND POTENTIALLY FLIRT WITH KSGF AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED A VCTS INTO THE TAF WITH RATHER HIGH BASES ON THE CIG...WELL ABOVE MVFR AND PROBABLY AROUND THE 7KFT LEVEL (BASED ON CURRENT OBS OVER EASTERN OK. GUT FEELING IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT ENCROACHES KSGF WILL END UP MOVING JUST TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL CREATE STRONG WIND SHEAR TONIGHT. INSERTED 50 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET WITH ABOUT A 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH HEIGHT. GAGAN/CRAMER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1037 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH VERY LITTLE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MORNING UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM GREENSBORO WAS STABLE...AND 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AT 850MB AND 500MB WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AT 700MB FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AT A VERY SLOW PACE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS VERY DRY MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRIAD...BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS TO THE CLOUDINESS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY-TO-MID PART OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RUC AND THE NAM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION NEARLY NIL THIS AFTERNOON IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT 700MB COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT ARE RELATIVELY HIGH CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. LIKELY THE LAST CHANCES FOR ANY SPRINKLES WILL BE WITH THE WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE A FEW CLOUDS HAVE BUILT BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES. BASED ON MORNING THICKNESSES AND EXPECTED SUN...RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN TOWARD THE TRIAD THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...KEPT TEMPERATURES WHERE THEY WERE AS IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG WITH DEVELOPING SUN TO SEE READINGS HIT MAXES GIVEN GOOD MIXING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND WITH 850MB WINDS FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE AREA...45KT AT KGSO THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD KINT BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 25 PERCENT. STILL...NOT A GOOD DAY FOR ANY BURNING ACTIVITY GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND RUC TRENDS...AND DRY AIR MOVING TOWARD THE STATE...REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN SOUTHERN ZONES. THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE PATTERN OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SHORT TERM. TODAY...REMNANTS OF ONCE POTENT SQUALL LINE THAT CROSSED THE TN VALLEY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. 00Z GSO SOUNDING DEPICTED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR OVER REGION PLUS DECENT MID LEVEL CAP. IN ADDITION...BEST FORCING WILL LIFT WELL NW OF REGION. THUS A LOT OF ELEMENTS GOING AGAINST SUSTAINING NUMEROUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM MAKING IT INTO THE PIEDMONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 30% POP...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...APPEARS DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE UPON. WHILE DO NOT EXPECT A TOTALLY SUNNY DAY...A MILD START COUPLED WITH A BREEZY SW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...DECIDED TO ADD A CHANCE POP. APPEARS MINOR DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS JUST SE OF REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BUT THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE GFS...JUST MORE BENIGN. BEST LIFT TO GENERATE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN THE MID LAYERS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 305-310K LAYER (BETWEEN 8000-12000 FT). MODELS DISSIPATE MID LEVEL CAP BUT HAVE SEEN IN PAST EXPERIENCES THAT THE MODELS TEND TO ERODE/DISSIPATE THIS FEATURE TOO QUICKLY. WHILE CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SO FOR NOW JUST EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. AGAIN...DUE TO PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. EARLY SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS SUN AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER REGION AS STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A BIT MORE SUN AND CONTINUED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROPEL TEMPS TO NEAR 80/LOWER 80S OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS IS NOT IN RECORD TERRITORY AS RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 80S (GSO) TO NEAR 90 (RDU). LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO LONG TERM. CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE MONDAY IN BREEZY SW FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TIMING OF BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (SOME THUNDER?) STILL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN WAKE OF SYSTEM...EXPECT RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WED AND THU. AVIATION... BROAD SCALE RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT RACES WELL TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT BUT CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO 1500-2500FT WITH A PASSING SHOWER. MEANWHILE BREEZY SW WINDS OF 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS 60-65KT 850H JET STREAK PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 09Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 910 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS AND BISWSWBIS PRODUCT TO DELAY THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE JAMESTOWN AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. REFLECTIVITY ON KABR DOPPLER RADAR IS INCREASING WEST OF KABR AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. HOWEVER...MAIN AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE IN JUST NOW ADVANCING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND TOWARD SOUTH DAKOTA. IN COLLABORATION WITH OFFICES TO THE EAST IT WAS DECIDED TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE ADVISORY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CHANGED LITTLE IF ANY. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE SNOW AMOUNTS IN ADVISORY AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM CST TODAY. JP MARTIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING THE LOW WILL TRACK BETWEEN THE RUC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. STILL BELIEVE THE PRIMARY REGION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES BY NOON SATURDAY IN THIS AREA. EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS IN BISMARCK AND LESS THAN LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT FEW DAYS AS H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE TODAYS MELTING SNOW HAS MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MODELS CONTINUE WITH MODERATE VARIABILITY IN DAY TO DAY RUNS IN THE EXTENDED...AND THUS MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES OVERALL. SLOW WARMING TREND STILL LOOKING PROBABLE NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SOMEWHAT...SO COOLED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY...SOUTHEAST...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY. && $$ WAA/NH/JPM nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 845 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .UPDATE... SFC LOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA AT 02Z. WIND FIELD WOULD INDICATE SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD FSD TONIGHT AND 00Z NAM AND RUC SHOWING THAT EXACT SAME THING. CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS FOR PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN A FSD LOCATION FOR SFC LOW AT 12Z. THEN SFC LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD DLH AREA. BUT MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ENTERING SYSTEM WITH SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW AS LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THRU OHIO VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES AS SHUT OFF ANY GULF INFLOW INTO SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS AT 00Z FOR ABR SHOW DRY LAYER SUB 800 MB WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE SLOW SATURATION OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWING WEAK ECHOES (SPRINKLES PER ABR)...WITH MAIN PCPN COMPLEX OVER NCNTRL NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST. 00Z NAM/RUC CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NARROW BAND OF SNOW FROM ABR-FAR-TVF-BDE AREA WITH BACK EDGE OF ANY REAL SNOW FROM ROSEAU TO GRAND FORKS TO VALLEY CITY. DROPPED ANY MENTION OF SNOW IN DVL REGION. SNOW GRIDDS WOULD HAVE 3-5 INCH IN BAND...WITH LITTLE EAST OR WEST OF ABOVE MENTIONED BAND. DUE TO DRY AIR AND SLOW SATURATION OF THE SUB 800 MB LAYER...SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF SNOW ARRIVAL IN GRIDDS AND ISSUED UPDATED ADVISORY STATEMENT TO SLOW DOWN START TIME. THRU 12Z ANY PCPN TO REACH ONLY FARGO...THEN 12-15Z WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO NW MN. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ADVISORY AREA...BUT WITH NARROW BAND...PLACES ON FAR WEST AND EAST EDGES OF ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON THE FENCE WITH LARGE GRADIENT IN SHORT DISTANCES LIKELY ROX-GFK-VCY AREA ON WEST EDGE AND BJI-FFM AREA ON EAST EDGE. .AVIATION... VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME MOVEMENT OF SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY INTO TAF SITES ATTM. NARROW AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY INTO FAR BY 12Z AND BJI BY 15Z OR SO. GFK WILL BE ON THE FENCE AND MAY WELL STAY VFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 246 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006) SHORT TERM... MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE STORM FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH OVERALL SCENARIO...AND PLACES MOST QPF FROM SE ND TO FARGO TO AROUND BDE. WILL BE ISSUING A SNOW ADVISORY FROM NEAR VALLEY CITY TO SOUTH OF GFK TO BDE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE FARGO AREA...WITH 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENT. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG JET AND SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF DEEP WESTERN TROUGH. SFC LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF NE COLORADO...THEN WASH OUT AND MOVE INTO EASTERN MN. REGION WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY BY SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP LAYERED OMEGA/ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K SFC. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR GETTING WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF LIFT...AROUND 6-8 HRS. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS ARE WARM AND DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THEREFORE GETTING 6+ INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA APPEARS UNLIKELY. WE FEEL THAT A SNOW ADVISORY SHOULD WORK OUT WELL FROM NEAR VALLEY CITY TO BDE...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY THE WATCH. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT OF GETTING ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IN GFK...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND FEE IT/S WARRANTED TO INCLUDE GFK AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ND THAT GET CLOSE TO 6 INCHES FROM BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL...WITH FOCUSSED FRONTOGENESIS HERE. OVERALL THOUGH...3 UP TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET...WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10 TO 1. IF AN ARCTIC HIGH WAS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...THIS WOULD BE A BLOCK BUSTER STORM. LACK OF REAL COLD AIR FOR SYSTEM TO FEED ON THOUGH SHOULD MEAN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AN FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW. IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS...THERE SHOULD BE JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH STRENGTH OF LIFT...CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH WON/T MENTION WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS WELL TO THE EAST. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BRUSH MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. REST OF AREA WILL SEE A SLOW COOLING TRENDS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING DOWN FROM CANADA. LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI...LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FOR EXTENDED FORECAST. 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THE AREA IN NW FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ALTHOUGH DO KEEP NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...TIMING OF ANY WAVES THAT DO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW HAS BEEN EXTREMELY TOUGH THIS WINTER AND WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING S OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. AS FAR AS TEMPS...REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && AVIATION...INITIAL BATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK TO VFR...BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. ANTICIPATE S PARTS TO RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND DETERIORATE TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FALLING SNOW AFT 00Z...AND N PARTS BY 06Z. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN INTO SAT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ038-NDZ039- NDZ049-NDZ052-NDZ053. SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ027-NDZ029- NDZ030. MN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ003-MNZ029. SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ005-MNZ006- MNZ007-MNZ008-MNZ009-MNZ013-MNZ014-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ017- MNZ022-MNZ023-MNZ024-MNZ027-MNZ028. SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-MNZ002. && $$ RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 350 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING THE LOW WILL TRACK BETWEEN THE RUC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. STILL BELIEVE THE PRIMARY REGION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES BY NOON SATURDAY IN THIS AREA. EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS IN BISMARCK AND LESS THAN LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT FEW DAYS AS H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE TODAYS MELTING SNOW HAS MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MODELS CONTINUE WITH MODERATE VARIABILITY IN DAY TO DAY RUNS IN THE EXTENDED...AND THUS MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES OVERALL. SLOW WARMING TREND STILL LOOKING PROBABLE NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SOMEWHAT...SO COOLED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY...SOUTHEAST...TONIGHT AND THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. && $$ WAA/NH nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .UPDATE... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. GFS AND RUC MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN EAST OF FA OVERNIGHT. THICKER CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PARTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW RH... VERY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006) DISCUSSION... ENHANCED FIRE THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL CAUSE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE WINDS... ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES... WILL AGAIN PUSH THE FIRE DANGER LEVEL INTO THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORIES. LOW DEWPOINTS OVER WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST... INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST SAW THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO... THE WARM TEMPS... GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR... WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE CURED GRASSY VEGETATION. WILL ALSO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER... AND HUMIDITIES AGAIN QUITE LOW... ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. SUNDAY COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER THREAT... ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM FOR SUNDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING MUCH MORE WIND AT LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE THE MODEL DEVELOPING MORE SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS KANSAS... IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENTLY WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS SATELLITE INDICATES A FAIRLY STRONG JET MAX IN THE PACIFIC... OFF THE COAST OF CANADA... WHICH MAY BE THE ENERGY THE GFS IS CAPTURING TO GENERATE THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO ALSO FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ALONG AND AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY SHARP DRYLINE. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT ABOUT THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW... WE WILL ALSO SEE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... IF THE NAM PROVES CORRECT... THE DRYLINE PROGRESSION WILL BE SIMILAR... BUT THE LOW LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH LESS. IN THE LONGER TERM... COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS SHOWING SOME SIGNAL THAT A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY... AS MOISTURE STARTS TO GET LIFTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR. HOWEVER... WILL LIKE TO SEE IF THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING PCPN FOR THAT TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 47 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 78 43 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 81 49 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 75 38 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 72 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 10 DURANT OK 79 56 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ014-OKZ015- OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024- OKZ025-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036- OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044- OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ009-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ021-OKZ022- OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ033-OKZ034- OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ044- OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ050. TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088- TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 99/99 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 856 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING, BUT STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST RUC HAS SHOWALTER INDEX OF MINUS 3 AND TT OF 52 AT 06Z. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RISING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S STILL LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD/DENSE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ZONES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 216 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MORE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA MOVING NORTHEAST. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA WEAKENING AT THE MOMENT. MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE ALONG GULF COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW HARD TO PIN DOWN ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA MAY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. NAM/GFS STABILITY CHARTS SUGGEST AIRMASS MAY BECOME UNSTABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA MOVES INTO SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD MORNING. TOTAL TOTALS INDEX AROUND 50 AND LI AROUND -3 ON NAM BUFKIT. MET POPS VERY LOW...BUT GFS IN THE HIGH CHANCE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT AND MENTION THUNDER. WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH SATURDAY MORNING...BEST CHANCE RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS..ALONG AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MET/MAV TEMPS LOWER THAN LOCAL GUIDANCE WILL GO NEAR LOCAL CONSENSUS...SHOULD START OUT WARM AND MAY SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...MID TO UPPER 70S. SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER AND WARMER...HIGHS AROUND 80. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH BROAD TROUGH OUT WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN TROUGH MOVES THRU NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY...SHOULD DRIVE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BEST DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT. DRYING OUT THROUGH THURSDAY AND A LITTLE COOLER WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. FRONT APPEARS DRY...TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES OR BELOW BY FRIDAY. AVIATION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL FLUCTUATE THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR I.E. RANGE FROM 2500 FT TO 3500 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 13 Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 10 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 120 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006 .LAKE WIND UPDATE...REPORTS AT PINEVILLE INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE STEADILY DECREASED ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE TODAY. LATEST OBSERVATION INCLUDED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MAIN LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST RUC RUN DOES NOT SHOW ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL ENTERING THE CWA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY POP UP DURING THE MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE PREFRONTAL RAIN...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING. BY AFTERNOON...THESE FAR INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS THE WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GFS...NAM...AND RUC CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF /COASTAL AREAS/ FOR TODAY...THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THESE ZONES WILL BE SUFFICIENT. LATEST NAM SHOWS LI VALUES GOING NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS STAYS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH INSTABILITY...THE MODEL DOES ALLOW LI VALUES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR TODAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WHERE MOST GUSTS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. BETTER COVERAGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MAY SUPPRESS MORE VIGOROUS MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT BOTH 925 MB AND 850 MB WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE APPROACHING FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS...WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ZONE FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES NECESSARY. && .AVIATION...BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AGAIN TODAY AT KCHS...WHERE CURRENT WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR KCHS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. KSAV HAS NOT BEEN EXPERIENCING THE STRONG GUSTS SEEN AT OTHER LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO FOLLOW MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEPS KSAV AT LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN KCHS AND KNBC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN UPDATE TO THE TAF MAY BE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER WINDS SPEEDS. BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SEE PREVALENT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY AHEAD OF THE DIMINISHING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FOLLOWING PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN...SINCE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING THE COASTAL AREAS. && .MARINE...BUOY 4 IN THE OFFSHORE SC WATERS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FEET. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CLOSE TO PARALLEL THE SHORELINE...DOUBTFUL THAT THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE SC AND GA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING SUFFICIENT FOR THESE ZONES TO ALERT MARINERS OF SEAS UP TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AS OVER THE LAND...DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE OFFSHORE GA MARINE ZONES...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. LATEST CHARLESTON WATERFRONT PARK REPORT INDICATED GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR AMZ330 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE SCA FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. && .FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS CANCELED THE RED FLAG FIRE ALERT FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NON CRITICAL RH VALUES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-374. && $$ WMS sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1000 AM EST THU MAR 9 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MAIN LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST RUC RUN DOES NOT SHOW ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL ENTERING THE CWA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY POP UP DURING THE MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE PREFRONTAL RAIN...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING. BY AFTERNOON...THESE FAR INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS THE WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GFS...NAM...AND RUC CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF /COASTAL AREAS/ FOR TODAY...THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THESE ZONES WILL BE SUFFICIENT. LATEST NAM SHOWS LI VALUES GOING NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS STAYS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH INSTABILITY...THE MODEL DOES ALLOW LI VALUES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR TODAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WHERE MOST GUSTS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. BETTER COVERAGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MAY SUPPRESS MORE VIGOROUS MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT BOTH 925 MB AND 850 MB WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE APPROACHING FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS...WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ZONE FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES NECESSARY. && .AVIATION...BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AGAIN TODAY AT KCHS...WHERE CURRENT WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR KCHS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. KSAV HAS NOT BEEN EXPERIENCING THE STRONG GUSTS SEEN AT OTHER LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO FOLLOW MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEPS KSAV AT LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN KCHS AND KNBC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN UPDATE TO THE TAF MAY BE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER WINDS SPEEDS. BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SEE PREVALENT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY AHEAD OF THE DIMINISHING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FOLLOWING PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN...SINCE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING THE COASTAL AREAS. && .MARINE...BUOY 4 IN THE OFFSHORE SC WATERS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FEET. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CLOSE TO PARALLEL THE SHORELINE...DOUBTFUL THAT THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE SC AND GA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING SUFFICIENT FOR THESE ZONES TO ALERT MARINERS OF SEAS UP TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AS OVER THE LAND...DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE OFFSHORE GA MARINE ZONES...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. LATEST CHARLESTON WATERFRONT PARK REPORT INDICATED GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR AMZ330 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE SCA FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. && .LAKE WINDS...LATEST PINEVILLE OBSERVATION HAD WINDS 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 29 MPH. THUS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. && .FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS CANCELED THE RED FLAG FIRE ALERT FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NON CRITICAL RH VALUES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-374. && $$ WMS sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 941 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .UPDATE...KCRP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1 KFT. AREAS OF STRATUS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MID-COAST REGION. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG FORMATION OTHER THAN NEAR THE COAST WHERE AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG ARE FORMING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...WILL PROBABLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVE. RAISED MINIMUM TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT. MADE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR FASTER WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOISTURE HAS SURGED BACK TO THE WEST AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM COTULLA TO LAREDO. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WEST OF COAHUILA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST RUNS OF THE ETA/RUC MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY DAYBREAK. 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AFTER 12Z IN ADVANCE OF THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...AREAS OF SEA FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH PORT ARANSAS GOING DOWN TO BELOW 1/4 MILE. WILL ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS DENSE SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST. THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS ARE 7 TO 8 FEET AT THE BUOYS AT THIS TIME. WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS PERIODIC HIGH SWELLS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AT LRD/COT ATTM...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING FROM VCT/NIR/RFG/CRP/NQI AND AREAS EAST. MVFR CIGS AT VCT/PKV WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS BKN/OVC007 AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1SM IN AREAS OF FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM HBV TO ALI TO NIR AND AREAS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY SAT AFTN WITH A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT-TERM JD/91...AVIATION tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 500 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM... MILD...DRY AND WINDY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS. MORNING WV/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH VERY FAST SOUTHWEST UPR-LVL FLOW FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. A WELL-DEFINED SHTWV IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN CALI/ARIZ AT THIS TIME PER PV ANALYSIS. 120KT + JETMAX AT 250MB ASSOC WITH THE SHTWV WILL BE MOVING FROM ARIZ/NM THIS MORNING NORTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT...STRONGER SHTWV/JETMAX (ABOUT 150KT AT 250MB) NUDGING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. THE SPLNS MAY BE SOMEWHAT FORTUNATE TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LVL WINDS. THE 6Z NAM SHOWS THE 700MB SPEEDMAX MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL OKLA BY MIDDAY WITH ABOUT 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE CWA MOST OF THE AFTN. NEXT 700MB SPEED MAX OF 40-50 KTS BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND 3Z...AFTER THE BL BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. ADDITIONALLY...THE SFC PRESSURE FCST SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLO DURING THE AFTN...A LOCATION FURTHER WEST THAN NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH OUT STRONG WIND EVENTS. FINALLY...SUBSTANTIAL UPR-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DELAY WARMING/MIXING SLIGHTLY TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...MODEL OUTPUT OF 20-25 KTS/25-30 MPH LOOK REALISTIC FOR WIND SPEEDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. THE FAR WEST-SW COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MAY APPROACH ADVIOSRY LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH TO KICK UP SOME DIRT ON THE CAPROCK AND RETAINED BLOWING DUST WORDING IN THE GRIDS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE WSW. DEWPOINTS AT 3 AM ARE RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF SRN NM AND SW TX. THIS SHOULD BE THE SOURCE REGION FOR OUR SFC MOISTURE TODAY. MODEL SNDGS DO INDICATE SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE MID-LVLS BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE 20+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INDICATED ON THE CAPROCK IN THE MODELS. THUS HAVE REDUCED DEWPOINTS IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE CONSEQUENCE THAT ALL OF THE CWA REACHING RHS OF TEENS OR LESS BY AFTN. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. WITH THE NEXT SPEEDMAX MOVING ACROSS WTX TONIGHT...AND THE SFC LOW BEGINNING TO KICK OUT ACROSS KS...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED UNTIL 6Z OR SO...AFTER WHICH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. FCST X-SECTIONS SHOW LIFT AND INCREASED RH AT MID-LVLS...SO SKIES TO REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. .LONG TERM... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. PERSISTENTLY DRY AND WINDY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. BY 12Z SATURDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE DEEPLY VEERED/DRY FLOW OVER THE FA AS LEE TROUGHING EVOLVES TOWARD CYCLOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT DEEP MIXING. MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS APPEAR TO SUPPORT WINDS NEAR/JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX BELOW AN APPROACHING 140+KT UPPER JET NOSES TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A MENTION OF GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST IS WARRANTED. GRADIENTS/WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL GRADIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF ADVISORY/NEAR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS GIVEN SUFFICIENT MIXING. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS VARIABLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS...SO WILL INCREASE GRIDDED WINDS INTO ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM. GIVEN FIFTH PERIOD..A HEADLINE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THE WIND POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN MILD/DRY SURFACE RIDGING...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHT/THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. && .FIRE WEATHER... SHORT TERM...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS BUT THE SE PANHANDLE/NRN ROLLING PLAINS TODAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SRN PLAINS AND DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW MIXING OF 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS AT 700 MB TOWARD THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. FINALLY...VERY DRY FUELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS CERTAIN DUE TO WEAKER WINDS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MEET THE CRITERIA SOUTH OF HALL AND COTTLE COUNTIES. LONG TERM...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WILL BE POSTED FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK FOR SAT AND SUN. RED FLAG CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT ALL LEVELS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN IMPRESSIVE JET. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVER ESTIMATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN DEEPLY VEERED FLOW... DEEP MIXING...AND VERY DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOURCE REGION OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WITH THE MENTIONED WIND MAX APPROACHING LATE IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPROCK. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED/ BROKEN CLOUDS MAY KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR THE REQUIRED 15 PERCENT. HENCE CONFIGURATION OF THE WATCH AREA. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY. THIS AS 20 FOOT WINDS/DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS STRONG JET/CLEAR SLOT SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WATCH WAS KEPT CONSISTENT WITH SATURDAY/S FOR SIMPLICITY...BUT THIS MAY OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE REFINED AS THE FORECAST IS TWEAKED... AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. && .AVIATION... STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KLBB AND KCDS AS SW WINDS OF 35-40 KTS ARE FCST IN THE 850-800MB/1500-3000 FT AGL LAYER FROM APPROX 05Z TO 10Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 69 35 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 TULIA 71 38 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 71 40 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 72 40 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 74 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 73 41 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 78 46 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 SPUR 76 43 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 77 47 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...CHILDRESS... COCHRAN...COTTLE...CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...GARZA...HALE... HALL...HOCKLEY...KENT...KING...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...MOTLEY... PARMER...STONEWALL...SWISHER...TERRY...AND YOAKUM. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...COCHRAN...CROSBY... FLOYD...GARZA...HALE...HOCKLEY...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN... PARMER...SWISHER...TERRY...AND YOAKUM. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...COCHRAN...CROSBY... FLOYD...GARZA...HALE...HOCKLEY...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN... PARMER...SWISHER...TERRY...AND YOAKUM. && $$ 33/20 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1245 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 .AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WINDS WILL DIMISNIGH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATUDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1007 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST BASED ON THE WARM MINS FROM THE MORNING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 601 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) AVIATION... MAINLY A WIND FCST NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOC WITH WEAKENING FRONT HAVE ALL BUT DIED AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS. STIFF SWLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDS MUCH LIKE THURSDAY...BUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE...WINDS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING BEFORE SUNSET...AND WILL BE NEARLY CALM BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATE TNGT SOUTH OF DANVILLE (OVER NC.) EXPECT DAN TO REMAIN DRY/VFR THRU 12Z SAT. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 307 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WITH TROF DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN U.S... RIDGING IN THE EAST WILL MEAN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FCST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EVEN A THREAT OF TSTMS AT TIMES. THIS MORNING SHOWERS ASSOC WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST. VERY WEAK COLD FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER TN/KY WILL PUSH THRU DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE NOTICE...STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH TNGT. TODAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AGAIN WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED OF RETURN MOISTR ASSOC WITH STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH TNGT...AS A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE GULF TRIGGERS CONVECTION OVER NC LATE TNGT AND PUSHES IT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z. SO HAVE HAD TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS IN THE SOUTH BY EARLY MORNING SAT...SPREADING THEM UP THRU THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY SAT. BULK OF THIS MOISTR MOVES NORTH BY SAT NIGHT...BUT ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...THIS FAR OUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DOUBT WITH THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR INTO THE FCST AREA THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGRESSIVE. THE NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LONG TERM... A QUICK GLANCE AT THE LONG RANGE GFS STILL INDICATES A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BULK OF ENERGY FROM THE TROF IN THE WEST FINALLY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE EAST AND TURNING THINGS QUITE A BIT COLDER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 100 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) AVIATION... AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH BROKEN SQUALL LINE NOW ENTERING RNK CWA BUT RAPID WEAKENING UNDER WAY...AS PRECIPITATION RUNS INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR AND DRY AIR ALOFT. CEILINGS GENERALLY WILL BE IN VFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SMALL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE S AT 20KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...VEERING TO THE WSW BY LATE MORNING AND STILL GUSTING TO 20KT...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 903 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... REMNANTS OF PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE GRADUALLY APPROACHING SW VA BUT WEAKENING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING TOPS AND REDUCTION IN LIGHTNING OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA PIVOTS ENE INTO MUCH MORE STABILITY PER MSAS AND DRY AIR ALOFT/CAP AS SEEN IN 00Z RAOBS. LATEST RUC ALSO INDICATES A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN LIFT/COVERAGE AFTER 03Z WITH POTENTIAL SPLIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS JET MAX NOSES OVERHEAD...LEAVING BEST DIFFLUENCE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WELL TO THE SOUTH. ALTHO BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW AXIS OF DEEP RH PUNCHING EAST OVERNIGHT...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EASTERN HALF LATE AS ACTUAL FRONT LAGS BACK TO THE WEST. THUS WILL BE UPDATING TO SPEED UP POPS AT BIT FAR WEST PER RADAR TRENDS WHILE CONFINING ANY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...RANGE FROM CHANCE POPS BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE BY DAYBREAK. SOUTHERLY WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIDGES BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASE SHORTLY AS STRONGER 85H JET ARRIVES. HOWEVER APPEARS DEPTH OF INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS TO WITHIN SHRA SO WONT RAISE NPW. EXPECT STRONG S/SW FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH UNTIL -SHRA WORKS INTO RATHER DRY DEWPOINTS...AND SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER THE WEST...PLAN TO RAISE LOWS SOME CLOSER TO WARMER MET MOS OUT EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 657 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) AVIATION... COLD FRONT TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST WV AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME. EXPECTING THIS LINE OF SHRA TO DISSPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE...THEREFORE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF SITES FROM ROA EAST. THIS LINE OF SHRA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS MAKING IT TO THE PIEDMONT AS WELL. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE SW AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH THE FRONT...AND EVEN HIGHER ON THE RIDGES IN SW VA/NW NC. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD A WSW DIRECTION. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 137 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH A LARGE CORE OF 60 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT 12Z. THIS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING SO HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION USED MAINLY THE NAM UVV AND Q-V FORCING FORECASTS WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THERE WILL BE NO BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE VALLEYS AND A CATEGORY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON THE RIDGES. HAVE EXTENDED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. WILL BE CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RATHER QUICKLY. WITH SATURATED GROUND...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG POSSIBILITIES LOOK GOOD ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SATURDAY...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS RING OF FIRE SCENARIO SET UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. RING OF FIRE IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS WAVE MAY CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO IGNITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS NAM DISPLAYING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 TO 800 AND LI'S -2 TO -4C. CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND WEAK WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW CHANCE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD ENOUGH AIR ON THE BACK SIDE TO BRING MENTION UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO SE WV TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA AVIATION... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY BETWEEN 03-09Z. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VRF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ AMS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1007 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST BASED ON THE WARM MINS FROM THE MORNING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 601 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) AVIATION... MAINLY A WIND FCST NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOC WITH WEAKENING FRONT HAVE ALL BUT DIED AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS. STIFF SWLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDS MUCH LIKE THURSDAY...BUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE...WINDS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING BEFORE SUNSET...AND WILL BE NEARLY CALM BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATE TNGT SOUTH OF DANVILLE (OVER NC.) EXPECT DAN TO REMAIN DRY/VFR THRU 12Z SAT. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 307 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WITH TROF DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN U.S... RIDGING IN THE EAST WILL MEAN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FCST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EVEN A THREAT OF TSTMS AT TIMES. THIS MORNING SHOWERS ASSOC WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST. VERY WEAK COLD FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER TN/KY WILL PUSH THRU DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE NOTICE...STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH TNGT. TODAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AGAIN WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED OF RETURN MOISTR ASSOC WITH STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH TNGT...AS A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE GULF TRIGGERS CONVECTION OVER NC LATE TNGT AND PUSHES IT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z. SO HAVE HAD TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS IN THE SOUTH BY EARLY MORNING SAT...SPREADING THEM UP THRU THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY SAT. BULK OF THIS MOISTR MOVES NORTH BY SAT NIGHT...BUT ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...THIS FAR OUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DOUBT WITH THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR INTO THE FCST AREA THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGRESSIVE. THE NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LONG TERM... A QUICK GLANCE AT THE LONG RANGE GFS STILL INDICATES A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BULK OF ENERGY FROM THE TROF IN THE WEST FINALLY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE EAST AND TURNING THINGS QUITE A BIT COLDER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 100 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) AVIATION... AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH BROKEN SQUALL LINE NOW ENTERING RNK CWA BUT RAPID WEAKENING UNDER WAY...AS PRECIPITATION RUNS INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR AND DRY AIR ALOFT. CEILINGS GENERALLY WILL BE IN VFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SMALL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE S AT 20KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...VEERING TO THE WSW BY LATE MORNING AND STILL GUSTING TO 20KT...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 903 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... REMNANTS OF PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE GRADUALLY APPROACHING SW VA BUT WEAKENING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING TOPS AND REDUCTION IN LIGHTNING OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA PIVOTS ENE INTO MUCH MORE STABILITY PER MSAS AND DRY AIR ALOFT/CAP AS SEEN IN 00Z RAOBS. LATEST RUC ALSO INDICATES A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN LIFT/COVERAGE AFTER 03Z WITH POTENTIAL SPLIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS JET MAX NOSES OVERHEAD...LEAVING BEST DIFFLUENCE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WELL TO THE SOUTH. ALTHO BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW AXIS OF DEEP RH PUNCHING EAST OVERNIGHT...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EASTERN HALF LATE AS ACTUAL FRONT LAGS BACK TO THE WEST. THUS WILL BE UPDATING TO SPEED UP POPS AT BIT FAR WEST PER RADAR TRENDS WHILE CONFINING ANY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...RANGE FROM CHANCE POPS BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE BY DAYBREAK. SOUTHERLY WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIDGES BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASE SHORTLY AS STRONGER 85H JET ARRIVES. HOWEVER APPEARS DEPTH OF INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS TO WITHIN SHRA SO WONT RAISE NPW. EXPECT STRONG S/SW FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH UNTIL -SHRA WORKS INTO RATHER DRY DEWPOINTS...AND SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER THE WEST...PLAN TO RAISE LOWS SOME CLOSER TO WARMER MET MOS OUT EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 657 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) AVIATION... COLD FRONT TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST WV AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME. EXPECTING THIS LINE OF SHRA TO DISSPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE...THEREFORE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF SITES FROM ROA EAST. THIS LINE OF SHRA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS MAKING IT TO THE PIEDMONT AS WELL. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE SW AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH THE FRONT...AND EVEN HIGHER ON THE RIDGES IN SW VA/NW NC. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD A WSW DIRECTION. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 137 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH A LARGE CORE OF 60 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT 12Z. THIS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING SO HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION USED MAINLY THE NAM UVV AND Q-V FORCING FORECASTS WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THERE WILL BE NO BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE VALLEYS AND A CATEGORY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON THE RIDGES. HAVE EXTENDED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. WILL BE CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RATHER QUICKLY. WITH SATURATED GROUND...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG POSSIBILITIES LOOK GOOD ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SATURDAY...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS RING OF FIRE SCENARIO SET UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. RING OF FIRE IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS WAVE MAY CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO IGNITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS NAM DISPLAYING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 TO 800 AND LI'S -2 TO -4C. CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND WEAK WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW CHANCE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD ENOUGH AIR ON THE BACK SIDE TO BRING MENTION UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO SE WV TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA AVIATION... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY BETWEEN 03-09Z. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VRF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ AMS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 601 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 .AVIATION... MAINLY A WIND FCST NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOC WITH WEAKENING FRONT HAVE ALL BUT DIED AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS. STIFF SWLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDS MUCH LIKE THURSDAY...BUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE...WINDS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING BEFORE SUNSET...AND WILL BE NEARLY CALM BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATE TNGT SOUTH OF DANVILLE (OVER NC.) EXPECT DAN TO REMAIN DRY/VFR THRU 12Z SAT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 307 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WITH TROF DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN U.S... RIDGING IN THE EAST WILL MEAN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FCST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EVEN A THREAT OF TSTMS AT TIMES. THIS MORNING SHOWERS ASSOC WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST. VERY WEAK COLD FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER TN/KY WILL PUSH THRU DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE NOTICE...STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH TNGT. TODAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AGAIN WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED OF RETURN MOISTR ASSOC WITH STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH TNGT...AS A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE GULF TRIGGERS CONVECTION OVER NC LATE TNGT AND PUSHES IT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z. SO HAVE HAD TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS IN THE SOUTH BY EARLY MORNING SAT...SPREADING THEM UP THRU THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY SAT. BULK OF THIS MOISTR MOVES NORTH BY SAT NIGHT...BUT ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...THIS FAR OUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DOUBT WITH THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR INTO THE FCST AREA THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGRESSIVE. THE NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LONG TERM... A QUICK GLANCE AT THE LONG RANGE GFS STILL INDICATES A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BULK OF ENERGY FROM THE TROF IN THE WEST FINALLY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE EAST AND TURNING THINGS QUITE A BIT COLDER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 100 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006) AVIATION... AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH BROKEN SQUALL LINE NOW ENTERING RNK CWA BUT RAPID WEAKENING UNDER WAY...AS PRECIPITATION RUNS INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR AND DRY AIR ALOFT. CEILINGS GENERALLY WILL BE IN VFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SMALL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE S AT 20KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...VEERING TO THE WSW BY LATE MORNING AND STILL GUSTING TO 20KT...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 903 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... REMNANTS OF PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE GRADUALLY APPROACHING SW VA BUT WEAKENING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING TOPS AND REDUCTION IN LIGHTNING OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA PIVOTS ENE INTO MUCH MORE STABILITY PER MSAS AND DRY AIR ALOFT/CAP AS SEEN IN 00Z RAOBS. LATEST RUC ALSO INDICATES A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN LIFT/COVERAGE AFTER 03Z WITH POTENTIAL SPLIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS JET MAX NOSES OVERHEAD...LEAVING BEST DIFFLUENCE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WELL TO THE SOUTH. ALTHO BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW AXIS OF DEEP RH PUNCHING EAST OVERNIGHT...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EASTERN HALF LATE AS ACTUAL FRONT LAGS BACK TO THE WEST. THUS WILL BE UPDATING TO SPEED UP POPS AT BIT FAR WEST PER RADAR TRENDS WHILE CONFINING ANY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...RANGE FROM CHANCE POPS BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE BY DAYBREAK. SOUTHERLY WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIDGES BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASE SHORTLY AS STRONGER 85H JET ARRIVES. HOWEVER APPEARS DEPTH OF INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS TO WITHIN SHRA SO WONT RAISE NPW. EXPECT STRONG S/SW FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH UNTIL -SHRA WORKS INTO RATHER DRY DEWPOINTS...AND SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER THE WEST...PLAN TO RAISE LOWS SOME CLOSER TO WARMER MET MOS OUT EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 657 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) AVIATION... COLD FRONT TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST WV AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME. EXPECTING THIS LINE OF SHRA TO DISSPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE...THEREFORE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF SITES FROM ROA EAST. THIS LINE OF SHRA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS MAKING IT TO THE PIEDMONT AS WELL. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE SW AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH THE FRONT...AND EVEN HIGHER ON THE RIDGES IN SW VA/NW NC. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD A WSW DIRECTION. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 137 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH A LARGE CORE OF 60 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT 12Z. THIS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING SO HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION USED MAINLY THE NAM UVV AND Q-V FORCING FORECASTS WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THERE WILL BE NO BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE VALLEYS AND A CATEGORY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON THE RIDGES. HAVE EXTENDED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. WILL BE CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RATHER QUICKLY. WITH SATURATED GROUND...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG POSSIBILITIES LOOK GOOD ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SATURDAY...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS RING OF FIRE SCENARIO SET UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. RING OF FIRE IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS WAVE MAY CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO IGNITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS NAM DISPLAYING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 TO 800 AND LI'S -2 TO -4C. CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND WEAK WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW CHANCE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD ENOUGH AIR ON THE BACK SIDE TO BRING MENTION UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO SE WV TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA AVIATION... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY BETWEEN 03-09Z. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VRF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 902 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .UPDATE... SOUNDINGS FROM MPX AND DVN THIS EVENING SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY BELOW 600 MB. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM EITHER. SOUNDINGS FROM ILX...SGF...OAX AND TOP SHOW A VERY SIMILAR PROFILE. FORCING THAT COMES IN OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND CONCERNED THAT SATURATION MAY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR. TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE NAM MAINTAINS THE DRY LAYER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RUC DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY IN THIS DRY LAYER...BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE MOISTURE IN...BUT DO NOT THINK THIS IS CORRECT WITH DRY 00Z SOUNDINGS. WILL PUSH THE POPS BACK TO AFTER 09Z AND BRING THEM BACK INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. && 04 .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH 300MB WINDS OF 100KTS EXTENDING FROM KANSAS TO ARIZONA. TONIGHT...AS SURFACE WAVE LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...STRONG FORCING MANIFESTED BY 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ON 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED ELEVATED CAPE OF AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG BETWEEN 06Z-18Z 11MAR06 THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE OF MINUS 10C-MINUS 20C. BASED ON THIS...AND AS MIDNIGHT ARX FORECASTER MENTIONED...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED AT 1750Z 10MAR06 TO INCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY. SATURDAY...GFS AND NAM HAD DIFFERENCES WITH SURFACE FEATURES. OPTED TO MAINTAIN SPIRIT OF FORECAST DATA BASE...THUS GFS SOLUTION WAS UTILIZED. THIS WAS BASED ON GFS CONSISTENCY AND SIGNAL IN NCEP SREF. BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL AND THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED DIMINISHING RAIN PROBABILITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHERE DRY SLOT WILL BE PUSHING IN. WITH MODELS INDICATING BEST EFFECTS OF DRY SLOT TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHEAST IOWA ON SATURDAY...THESE AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BEST INSOLATION. EVEN THOUGH GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE WERE AT ODDS...TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD AT SUCH LOCATIONS AS KOLZ...KPDC...KOVS...WHERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR HIGHEST FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH ABOVE 60F SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN 500 MB RIDGE AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERLY 50 KNOT 850 MB JET TIGHTENING THE 850 MB ISOTHERMS ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...THIS JET WILL BE BRINGING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN BOTH THE GFS AND GEM MODELS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THIS OCCURRING...BUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...IT DOES NOT DEVELOP THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF IT. ALL OF THIS COMBINES TO KEEP THIS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER STRONG OFF THE WEST COAST. IN ADDITION...THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THESE TWO FACTORS...THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT CONSIDERED BEYOND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL COLD ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OR BE ALL SNOW. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BELOW 850 MB...I HAVE OPTED TO GO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REVISITED AGAIN AS WE APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10C IN PORTION OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN... AND -4C FROM DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA TO MEDFORD WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE GFS SHOWS A COUPLING OF THE 250 MB JET AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS SAME LEVEL. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THIS SYSTEM...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BE BRINGING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A STRONG COUPLING OF THE -15C ISOTHERM AND THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY NORTH OF AN AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO MEDFORD WISCONSIN LINE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. IN THIS BAND...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE IN THE 12 TO 18 INCH RANGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BECAUSE OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THIS AREA. AS A RESULT... I WENT AWAY FORM THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TOOL AND I HAVE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE DEFORMATION ZONE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS THE CASE...THE GFS LOOKS TOO COLD WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM OUTPUT. AS A RESULT...I TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE...BUT I MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH YET. ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...WE RETURN BACK TOWARD THE NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION WHICH ACTUALLY FAVORED DURING A LA NINA SPRING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ THOMPSON/BOYNE wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 612 PM MST FRI MAR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION...BASED ON THE CURRENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAVE EXTENDED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL 8 PM. BASED ON THE LATEST RUC THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER THAT TIME...ENDING THE THREAT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 225 PM SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE PUNCTUATED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL PROBABLY LET THE SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM EVEN THOUGH THE WORST OF THE SNOW IS OVER. IR IMAGERY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...SO THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE SNOW TOMORROW BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS ON WHAT IS IN STORE. THE GFS SPINS UP AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. OTHER MODELS OUT THERE INDICATE THAT THE NAM SOLUTION IS A BIG OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT SO HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY. DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES THEN AREAS NORTH OF A TORRINGTON-ALLIANCE LINE WOULD SEE AT LEAST 6 INCHES FROM THE EVENT. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS IN THIS PERIOD. SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK SHORT RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MONDAY. PATTERN FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF THE WEEK GENERALLY ZONAL WITH A FAST MOVING SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CWA EVERY 24-30 HRS. THESE SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO MTN AREAS WITH MORE ISOLD COVERAGE FURTHER EAST. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BY LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGE. ZONES 63..64..66. && $$ WEILAND wy AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1150 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #59. LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN OK AND WESTERNMOST ARK. THE DE QUEEN PROFILER NOTING 55KTS AT THIS HOUR. STILL DEALING WITH THE PROS AND CONS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE LLJ CONTINUES EXCELLENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 925/850 LEVELS...THERE IS A LARGE DRY LAYER BELOW 600MB TO OVERCOME. SHRA/TSRA THAT HAVE TRIED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED IN LARGE PART DUE TO THIS DRY LAYER. MEANWHILE...THE SHEAR AXIS AT 500MB REMAINS ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OK. GIVEN GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO TS TO DEVELOP IN THE SVR WATCH AREA OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. GIVEN SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND STRONG WARMING JUST OFF THE DECK DUE TO LLJ AM EXPECTING TS TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (UP TO QUARTERS) REMAINS THE PRIMARY RISK. A ROGUE WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT A SLIGHT CHC AT BEST. GAGAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... WATCHING A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONGEAL NEAR THE REGION TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MO OZARKS. A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS FORTHCOMING TO SHIFT COVERAGE OF ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL WESTWARD TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. WAT VAP IMAGERY AND 500MB VORTICITY FROM RECENT RUC INITIALIZATIONS SHOWS AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A LOW LEVEL JET WAS STRENGTHENING...AS NOTED BY REGIONAL PROFILERS...AND ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. WITH TIME...THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 50KTS AND SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. A 100KT ULJ CORE WAS ALSO NOTED COINCIDENT WITH THE SHEAR AXIS ENHANCING UPPER SUPPORT. AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH CENTRAL TX AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF ARDMORE OK EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFF ARK. A BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NOTICED ON THE REGION 88D IMAGERY THIS EVENING. WITH NO SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCE NOTED BEHIND THIS FEATURE...IT IS LIKELY SOME SORT OF REFLECTION OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 300K LEVEL (WHERE LLJ IS MOST NOTED). THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10KFT AND HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SW MO BORDER. THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH 40-45KTS AT THE DE QUEEN AND NEODESHA PROFILERS IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STEADILY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL BE PRONE TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT (MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT). AS THE LLJ VEERS WITH TIME THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OK HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND FEEL THAT IS PRUDENT TO SHIFT THE RISK AREA JUST A TAD TO THE WEST TO ALIGN WITH THE FEATURES NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED IN NATURE AND ANY WIND RISK IS MINIMAL AT BEST. AM ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HAILERS AND NOTHING WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION...WITH COMBATING A RATHER STOUT DRY LAYER... QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GOING POPS ARE STRATIFIED WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THEM...LOWERING VALUES A BIT IN WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASING A BIT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION... TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SVR TSRA TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SE THIRD OF THE CWFA. TS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MAINLY EAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. HAVE INTRODUCED ONLY INCLUDED A CB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KSGF WITH RATHER HIGH BASES ON THE CIG...WELL ABOVE MVFR. GUT FEELING IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT ENCROACHES KSGF WILL END UP MOVING JUST TO THE EAST. SECONDLY...THE LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE STRONG WIND SHEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED 50 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET WITH ABOUT A 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH HEIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY MUCH OF THE DAY. AS IS THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF POTENTIAL TS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME AND HELP INITIATE SCT TS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AT KSGF AND CB AT KJLN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER PROB RISK OF TS. BEST ASSESSMENT FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. GAGAN && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1030 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO KICK NORTH THAN FORECAST AND SO WE DELAYED THE ADVISORY FOR THE JAMESTOWN AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. REFLECTIVITY ON KABR DOPPLER RADAR IS INCREASING OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FIRST BATCH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT. SECOND...MAIN...BATCH NOW ADVANCING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA FROM NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. LATEST RAPID UPDATE CYCLE MODEL SHOWS DICKEY COUNTY GETTING HARDEST HIT WITH ABOUT 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE GRADIENT TO NO SNOW IS SHARP AND THROUGH BISMARCK. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...OAKES 5 INCHES...JAMESTOWN THROUGH ASHLEY 2-3...LINTON LESS THAN 1...BISMARCK FLURRIES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CHANGED LITTLE IF ANY. REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM CST TODAY. JP MARTIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING THE LOW WILL TRACK BETWEEN THE RUC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. STILL BELIEVE THE PRIMARY REGION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES BY NOON SATURDAY IN THIS AREA. EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS IN BISMARCK AND LESS THAN LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT FEW DAYS AS H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE TODAYS MELTING SNOW HAS MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MODELS CONTINUE WITH MODERATE VARIABILITY IN DAY TO DAY RUNS IN THE EXTENDED...AND THUS MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES OVERALL. SLOW WARMING TREND STILL LOOKING PROBABLE NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SOMEWHAT...SO COOLED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY...SOUTHEAST...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY. && $$ WAA/NH/JPM nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 450 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .SHORT TERM...BAND OF SNOW IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN SOUTHEAST ND EXCEPT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND EVERYWHERE THE RADAR SUGGESTS. IT IS LIKELY HEAVIEST (ABOUT 1 INCH/HR) WHERE THE BAND HAS PERSISTED THE LONGEST THIS MORNING. WOULD THINK THIS IS CURRENTLY FROM NORTH OF ABR TO EAST OF VALLEY CITY. BUT...CURRENT PROGRESS SUGGESTS THEY MAY ONLY HAVE 2-3 MORE HOURS AND THEN HAVE LIGHT SNOW THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ON THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO TARGET SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN/NEAR RICHLAND COUNTY BY 12Z-13Z BUT AM NOT SURE WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. MORE THUNDER IS BEGINNING NEAR MINNESOTA RIVER AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PHASE OF PRECIPITATION FOR HEAVY SNOW AND A POSSIBLE WARNING. BUT THINK THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT NO WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY. FREEZING RAIN DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A THREAT TODAY THOUGH IT COULD BRIEFLY BEGIN AS THAT A FEW PLACES. POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING LOOKS STRONG WHILE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH LOOKS GOOD WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT (285K) IS ALSO STRONG. RUC AND ETA SHOW LIFTED INDEXES BELOW ZERO COVERING MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT ONLY WHEN PARCELS ARE LIFTED FROM HIGHER THAN 850 MB. THE LIGHTNING JUST WEST OF HON THIS MORNING WAS QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS SHOW THIS INSTABILITY. SO EXTENDED THE ISOLATED THUNDER FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS SHOW AND CONVECTION ALONE COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN A SHORT TIME. DIDN/T HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES OR SOME OTHER GRIDS MUCH SINCE THE GOING FORECAST APPEARED TO BE SOLID. .LONG TERM...MOST DAYS IN 00Z MEX GUIDANCE WERE WARMER THAN 18Z RUN BUT FITS CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY WELL...SO LET IT BE FOR NOW. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038-NDZ039- NDZ049-NDZ052-NDZ053. SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ027-NDZ029- NDZ030. MN...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ003-MNZ029. SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ005-MNZ006- MNZ007-MNZ008-MNZ009-MNZ013-MNZ014-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ017- MNZ022-MNZ023-MNZ024-MNZ027-MNZ028. SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-MNZ002. && $$ GV nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO ENHANCED ASCENT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND NEAR THE DRYLINE. RADAR SUGGESTS HIGH BASED DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME. THE DRYLINE ADVANCED NORTHWARD VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WAURIKA TO OKLAHOMA CITY AND STILLWATER...WHERE THE DRYLINE THEN INTERSECTS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM STILLWATER...TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY AND HOBART. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES REMAIN VERY WEAK WITH WINDS LIKELY BECOMING VARIABLE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STORMS APPEAR POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES FURTHER AND STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY BEFORE STALLING...WHICH KEEPS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR FORECAST CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST MLCAPES OF 1300-2000 WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 TO 70 KTS...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO REFLECT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 1 OR 2 PM...AS INSOLATION QUICKLY OVERCOMES A LARGE AND SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION NEAR THE DRYLINE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND 50S OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH CONSTANT MID/HIGH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FORMING TO THE REAR OF AN UPPER JET...REDUCING HEATING. WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING OVER ALL BUT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA....WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE 60S. HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE QUITE LOW HOWEVER BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL THEREFORE BE CANCELING THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXTREME FIRE DANGER APPEARS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES ALMOST COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONNECTS WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WESTERLY FLOW OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 30S SEEMS LIKELY WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS SUNDAY WITH AN UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. JAMES -------------------------- 637 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .UPDATE... BAND OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS HAS FORMED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER GROUND THAT HAD COOLED OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND THE DRYLINE STARTS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006) DISCUSSION... UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... IN THE FORM OF 50 AND 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS... CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EAST. BEHIND THE DRYLINE... VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE... INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH... WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AGAIN IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE NAM HAS COME AROUND CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY WITH THE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON AND THE DRYLINE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DRYLINE... RESULTING IN EXTREME FIRE DANGER LEVELS. DEEP MIXING COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH... WITH A FEW POSSIBLY PUSHING 45 MPH... AS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60KTS ARE FORECAST AT 700 MB ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SCALE BACK THE AREA OF LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY TO LIMIT THEM PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES... BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE BY LATE SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH A NAM A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT ON MONDAY... BUT SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND FOR NOW... PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK SLIM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 53 79 43 / 10 10 0 10 HOBART OK 80 48 79 41 / 10 10 0 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 83 54 83 44 / 10 10 0 10 GAGE OK 73 42 70 37 / 0 10 10 10 PONCA CITY OK 75 48 76 43 / 10 10 10 10 DURANT OK 81 61 82 50 / 20 20 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011- OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019- OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027- OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ050. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011- OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019- OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027- OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035- OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043- OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 30/32 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 130 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .UPDATE... WE ARE SENDING OUT ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND RAISED TEMPERATURES BACK UP CLOSER TO THE ORIGINAL FORECAST. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006/ UPDATE... WE ARE GOING TO SEND OUT ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO INSERT POPS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME ACCAS DEVELOPING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS ALSO SHOWING THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESSION AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN OKLAHOMA. RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER 70KTS IN THIS REGION WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AND THE SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO I WOULD ANTICIPATE THE MAIN POTENTIAL TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO THEY MAY NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG. RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THINGS DEVELOP BY 20Z DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR INDUCING A STRONG VERTICAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH MAY HELP GET UPDRAFTS GOING BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS TOTALLY ERODED. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006/ UPDATE... WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE BAND OF CUMULUS CONTINUING TO SAG ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. JUST NOTICED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT CHANUTE THAT THE DEWPOINTS WERE BEGINNING TO DROP WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LABETTE COUNTY STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY...BUT WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES STILL OCCURRING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE LOOKING SLIMMER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...SINCE THERE IS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. WE DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THEY WILL HAVE SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND THEY HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL HELP PUT A LID ON TEMPERATURES AGAIN. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...AND WILDFIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND. TODAY: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO EASTERN IOWA BY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BY EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM EASTERN TX UP THROUGH EASTERN OK INTO THE STALLING FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER FORMING A TRIPLE POINT. NAM SHOWS WEAKENING CIN AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THINK CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FOR ANY STORMS THAT GO UP. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS...WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS. TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN STATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING ALONG TRAILING STALLED FRONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 850 THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF 45 KT 850 JET TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION...THEREFORE CARRYING 20% POP FOR MUCH OF AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR SURFACE LOW TO REACH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z MONDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST MODELS PUSH TRAILING DRYLINE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS...WITH THE ECMWF/NAM FASTEST...AND GFS/UKMET APPEARING SLOWEST. STILL PLAUSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY INITIATE IN SOUTHEAST KS...MAINLY EAST OF A YATES CENTER TO SEDAN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG DRYLINE AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE PRESSURE FALLS. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION VECTOR 245 DEG AT 45 KT...THE STORMS MAY MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF OUR COUNTIES BY THE TIME THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH MATURE PHASE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES. TIME WILL TELL AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR SUNDAY THERE. BEHIND THE DRYLINE...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GET INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY AFTERNOON...AND NEVERTHELESS...EXPECTING EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN CENTRAL KS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE. MONDAY-TUESDAY: SLIGHTLY COOLER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO BUILD IN DURING THIS PERIOD BEHIND DEPARTING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET PROG A SHORTWAVE TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. CARUSO && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 72 44 73 37 / 5 20 10 10 HUTCHINSON 69 40 69 36 / 5 20 10 10 NEWTON 72 42 71 37 / 5 20 10 10 ELDORADO 73 44 74 38 / 5 20 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 74 48 76 39 / 5 20 10 10 RUSSELL 64 35 62 31 / 5 20 10 10 GREAT BEND 65 36 64 33 / 5 20 10 10 SALINA 67 40 66 34 / 5 20 10 10 MCPHERSON 68 41 69 35 / 5 20 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 76 49 79 42 / 10 20 30 10 CHANUTE 75 48 76 41 / 10 20 30 10 IOLA 75 48 75 41 / 10 20 30 20 PARSONS-KPPF 75 49 77 41 / 10 20 30 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1235 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .UPDATE... WE ARE GOING TO SEND OUT ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO INSERT POPS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME ACCAS DEVELOPING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS ALSO SHOWING THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESSION AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN OKLAHOMA. RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER 70KTS IN THIS REGION WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AND THE SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO I WOULD ANTICIPATE THE MAIN POTENTIAL TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO THEY MAY NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG. RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THINGS DEVELOP BY 20Z DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR INDUCING A STRONG VERTICAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH MAY HELP GET UPDRAFTS GOING BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS TOTALLY ERODED. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006/ UPDATE... WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE BAND OF CUMULUS CONTINUING TO SAG ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. JUST NOTICED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT CHANUTE THAT THE DEWPOINTS WERE BEGINNING TO DROP WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LABETTE COUNTY STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY...BUT WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES STILL OCCURRING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE LOOKING SLIMMER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...SINCE THERE IS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. WE DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THEY WILL HAVE SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND THEY HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL HELP PUT A LID ON TEMPERATURES AGAIN. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...AND WILDFIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND. TODAY: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO EASTERN IOWA BY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BY EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM EASTERN TX UP THROUGH EASTERN OK INTO THE STALLING FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER FORMING A TRIPLE POINT. NAM SHOWS WEAKENING CIN AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THINK CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FOR ANY STORMS THAT GO UP. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS...WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS. TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN STATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING ALONG TRAILING STALLED FRONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 850 THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF 45 KT 850 JET TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION...THEREFORE CARRYING 20% POP FOR MUCH OF AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR SURFACE LOW TO REACH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z MONDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST MODELS PUSH TRAILING DRYLINE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS...WITH THE ECMWF/NAM FASTEST...AND GFS/UKMET APPEARING SLOWEST. STILL PLAUSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY INITIATE IN SOUTHEAST KS...MAINLY EAST OF A YATES CENTER TO SEDAN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG DRYLINE AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE PRESSURE FALLS. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION VECTOR 245 DEG AT 45 KT...THE STORMS MAY MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF OUR COUNTIES BY THE TIME THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH MATURE PHASE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES. TIME WILL TELL AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR SUNDAY THERE. BEHIND THE DRYLINE...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GET INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY AFTERNOON...AND NEVERTHELESS...EXPECTING EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN CENTRAL KS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE. MONDAY-TUESDAY: SLIGHTLY COOLER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO BUILD IN DURING THIS PERIOD BEHIND DEPARTING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET PROG A SHORTWAVE TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. CARUSO && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 72 44 73 37 / 5 20 10 10 HUTCHINSON 69 40 69 36 / 5 20 10 10 NEWTON 72 42 71 37 / 5 20 10 10 ELDORADO 73 44 74 38 / 5 20 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 74 48 76 39 / 5 20 10 10 RUSSELL 64 35 62 31 / 5 20 10 10 GREAT BEND 65 36 64 33 / 5 20 10 10 SALINA 67 40 66 34 / 5 20 10 10 MCPHERSON 68 41 69 35 / 5 20 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 76 49 79 42 / 10 20 30 10 CHANUTE 75 48 76 41 / 10 20 30 10 IOLA 75 48 75 41 / 10 20 30 20 PARSONS-KPPF 75 49 77 41 / 10 20 30 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 305 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)... CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM JUST NORTH OF HARTFORD IN OHIO COUNTY...EAST TO NEAR STANFORD IN LINCOLN COUNTY. TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S...AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE FRONT LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST...POSSIBLY WORSENING THE CURRENT HYDRO ISSUES FROM THE PAST 72 HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL BE FOLLOWING A 12Z NAM12/ 09Z SREF BLEND FOR SUNDAY... AND LIKE THE RUC IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AS IT DEPICTS THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WELL MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ITS 850-700MB OMEGA FIELDS LOOK VERY REASONABLE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DISPLACED SOUTHWARDS. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARM FRONT SITS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEE LITTLE REASON FOR IT TO MOVE MUCH NORTH AS THE FRONT HAS BECOME VIRTUALLY DETATCHED FROM ITS "PARENT" LOW...AND MODEST SFC HI TO THE EAST KEEPING DECENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS OK ATTM. BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAS AREA...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DRIVING INTO THE THROUGH KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...PAH RADAR SHOWING DEVELOPING STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...TRAINING WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND WITH PWATS NEARLY 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE MAJORITY TONIGHT. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SITUATION THROUGH TONIGHT..WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE NAM12. AS LL JET DEPARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME LESSENING OF COVERAGE WILL OCCUR AND HAVE LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A DECENT GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EARLY SUNDAY SFC LOW FROM OK HAS MOVED NE ACROSS IL INTO IN...FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 06Z... INCREASING RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES FROM 6 TO 12Z SUNDAY AS THE FRONT DRAPES ITSELF NEAR OR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY AFTERNOON...AGAIN HEAVY RAINFAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY...AND UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AGAIN. WITH HIGH PWATS STILL REMAINING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. PRECIP WILL LESSEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WARMER SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF...THOUGH RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY UNDER FORECASTED...BUT 70S LOOK LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SEVERE CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR SUNDAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE INPLACE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S PUSHING LOWER 60S...AND SFC LIS NEARLY -3 TO -5 BY AFTN...AND CAPES PUSHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FROM EAST TO WEST. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE UNDER A MODERATE RISK FROM SPC...WITH SLIGHTRISK REST OF AREA. AGREE WITH SPC THAT SOME SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ...BUT THINK BOWS OR MULTICELLS WILL MORE LIKELY FOR OUR AREA...LARGE AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH BOTH GEOGRAPICHALLY AND TEMPORALLY...WENT ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH AND OUT UNTIL 00Z MONDAY (SUNDAY 7PM). EXPECT THAT NUMEROUS ROADS WILL HAVE WATER OVER THEM DURING THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CREEKS/STREAMS WELL OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THE WATCH AREA. --SCHOTT .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... STILL A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF BUMPY WEATHER TO GET THROUGH IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM BEFORE THINGS CALM DOWN A BIT. SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND OHIO. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST WE WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING. THERE ARE TWO MAIN EPISODES OF STORMS EXPECTED. FIRST...STORMS WILL BLOSSOM OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL STRIKE OUT TO THE EAST AND WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THEY ENCOUNTER PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 850 HPA DEW POINTS AROUND 12 DEG C. THIS BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS A BIG THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS IS BORNE OUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THAT REVEAL A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. INDEED THE MDPI IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0.7 BY 12Z MONDAY...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. A 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP WITH THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000 TO 10000 FEET. ENERGY HELICITY INDEX EVEN SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN MONDAY MORNING BUT THAT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ONLY IN ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE OR NEAR WHERE TWO STORMS CAN HAVE A LOCAL INFLUENCE ON EACH OTHER. THE REALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWFA. SO...THE FIRST AREA OF STORMS WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DO HINT THAT WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO INSOLATION THAT WOULD HELP TO RE-DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEN THE COLD FRONT COMES IN. LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL RE-FIRE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR AND MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST...DEPARTING THE LMK CWFA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS SETS UP. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO 1.3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG STORMS AND ANY TRAINING OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS. COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THE AXIS OF THE LARGE WESTERN TROF PASSES OVERHEAD TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO AROUND SAINT LOUIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GEM ENSEMBLE INDICATE PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME AS WELL. SO...WILL PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 13 LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 350 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SNOW AMOUNTS/HEADLINES SUN NIGHT AND MON ARE MAIN CONCERNS .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU NRN MN BTWN MEAN WRN TROF AND BLDG RDG IN THE E. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO IMPACTING S CA AND THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR STORM SYSTEM SET TO BEGIN 24-36 HR FROM NOW ACROSS UPR MI. CWA DOMINATED BY STRG SSE FLOW BTWN LO TRACKING TO THE W AND HI PRES RDG OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. STRG WAD PATTERN EVIDENT ON VEERING WIND PROFILES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST...WITH 12Z DVN SDNG SHOWING 17C TEMP ARND H925. ADVCTN OF THIS VERY WARM LLVL AIR TO THE N HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON AREA SDNGS AND CAUSED SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVER NCNTRL WI CLOSE TO POSITION OF H85 WARM FNT THAT HAS SHIFTED NEWD INTO THE SCNTRL CWA THIS AFTN. GRB REPORTS SOME SMALL HAIL FELL UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS EARLIER...BUT LTG STRIKES NOW FEW AND FAR BTWN AS CNVCTN MOVED INTO MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR OVER THE FA AS INDICATED ON THE 12Z APX SDNG. TEMPS REACHED THE 50S OVER THE WRN ZNS WHERE SSE FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING. COMMA TAIL BAND OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA ON ERN FLANK OF LIFTING SHRTWV IS OVER WRN LK SUP...MOVING NNEWD...AND ON A COURSE TO MISS THE WRN ZNS. OVERALL PCPN COVG IN THIS BAND AND ALG H85 WARM FNT IS LIMITED BY DRY MID LVL AIR NOTED IN JET SURGE OF SHRTWV MOVING TO THE W AND NEGATIVE DYNAMICS IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING JET. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE SHRA/TSRA COVG AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SFC LO MOVING NEWD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 12Z SUN...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACRS THE FA TNGT AND THRU ERY BY THE EARLY MRNG HRS. MODEL QPF IS SPARSE AND HINTS THAT DRY AIR ALF WL SQUASH ANY CNVCTN THAT MIGHT OTRW FORM WITH STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES/SSI FCST DOWN TO -4C. EXPECT THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER THE E 1/2 THIS EVNG COINCIDENT WITH H85 WARM FROPA AND WHERE AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIER MID LVL MSTR APPEARS OVER ERN WI IN THE FORM OF MID LVL CLD CLUSTERS. DRY AIR/RIGHT EXIT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING JET SHOULD LIMIT COVG/STRENGTH OF CNVCTN EVEN THOUGH SHARP VEERING WIND PROFILE/H85-5 BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KT WOULD STRENGTHEN UPDRAFTS. WL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA. FCST SDNGS DO SHOW STRG WAD CAUSING SHARP INVRN. WITH EXPECTED LLVL MOISTENING UNDER THIS INVRN (SFC DWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 40S OVER SRN WI)...LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG/ST TO DVLP AFTER SUNSET. WL ALSO RETAIN MENTION OF DZ/FZDZ...BUT TAKE OUT FLURRIES GIVEN SHALLOW DEPTH OF MSTR/TEMPS NO LOWER THAN A FEW DEGREES BLO 0C IN THE MOIST LYR. && .LONG TERM (SUN AND BEYOND)... SUN...LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG MAY BE AROUND INITIALLY OVR W WITH UPSLOPE W FLOW...BUT INCREASED MIXING ON S FRINGE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD SCOUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT BY MID MORNING. WITH W FLOW AT SFC AND GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY AFTN WENT ON WARM SIDE OF MOS WITH TEMPS INTO THE LWR-MID 40S. SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN IN SUPPORT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVR SW CONUS LIFTING INTO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MON MORNING AND SHIFTING INTO N NEW ENGLAND BY TUE AM. SFC LOW TRACK SETTLING FM CNTRL KS 00Z MON TO NEAR QUAD CITIES 12Z MON AND RACING INTO GEORGIAN BAY BY 00Z TUE. TIGHT SFC-H85 THERMAL GRADIANT OVR UPR LAKES WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT ON FRONTOGENESIS BANDED SNOW EVENT FM S MN INTO NW WI AND INTO W AND C UPR MI. OUTLIER SOLUTIONS IN ABOVE SCENARIO ARE STILL PRESENT WITH NAM AND RUC 13KM INDICATING A MUCH FARTHER TRACK TO SFC LOW AND VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL OVR UPR MI. DUE TO NATURE OF AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND EXPECTED PHASING OF POLAR AND SUB TROPICAL JETS THINK THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WITH STRONGER/FARTHER NORTH SFC LOW IS THE WAY TO PROCEED AND THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THE LATEST NAM AND RUC 13KM. BULK OF THIS SNOW EVENT WILL START BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z MON THEN PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MON NEAR WI BORDER AND DIMINISH AROUND 00Z FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. EXCEPTIONS ARE OVR W UPR MI AND OVR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MI WHERE UPSLOPING NE WINDS IN LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL KEEP MODERATE SNOW GOING A BIT LONGER INTO MON EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS FM THE SYSTEM ALONE SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 8 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS...LESSER ON THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLY SE AND E CWA AS PROGGED DEFORMATION BAND WILL NOT HAVE A MUCH OF AN IMPACT. OF COURSE...IF TRACK OF UPR/SFC LOWS SET UP A BIT FARTHER S THAN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS (SAY LIKE THE PARALLEL NAM)...THEN TARGET AREA FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD ALSO SHIFT INTO C AND E CWA. EVENT STARTS IN THE 3RD PERIOD SO DECIDED WE NEEDED TO GO WITH A WATCH...EVEN WITH THE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER SOLNS FM NAM/RUC 13KM. THINK S TIER OF ZONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITH EITHER 6"/12HR OR 8"/24 HR. PLACED IRON THROUGH MENOMINEE COUNTIES IN WATCH. ALSO PUT FAR W COUNTIES OF GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON AND N CENTRAL COUNTIES OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE IN THE WATCH. THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW. DELTA COUNTY WILL BE RIGHT ON FRINGE OF HEAVIEST SYNOPTIC SNOW BUT INCLUDED THEM AS THE H85 LOW STILL IS PROJECTED TO PASS JUST TO THEIR S AND SINCE THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF BANDING SNOWFALL NW OF THE H85 LOW AS INDICATED BY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVERLAYED BY CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY. THIS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN EXPLICIT MODEL QPF INDICATES. ALTHOUGH SAME SCENARIO IS THERE FOR ALGER HELD OFF ON WATCH DUE TO HIGHER SNOWFALL CRITERIA. IF CURRENT SCENARIO HOLDS...WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST ADVY FOR REST OF CWA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT DEPARTING BY TUE AM SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY OF LK EFFECT IN CHECK. NW FLOW AREAS MAY NEED ADVYS FOR THIS PERIOD THOUGH AFTER MAIN STORM PASSES BY. EXTENDED (WED THROUGH SAT)...EXPECT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO WED IN WAKE OF EARLY WEEK LOW PRES SYSTEM. MOIST AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO THU AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION BECOME MORE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT. A FEW DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THU. SURE THING IS MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DEEPER SYSTEM CROSSING CNTRL/ERN CONUS WED-FRI. OPERATIONAL GFS MORE AMPLIFED AND FARTHER N WITH SFC LOW RIDING IT ACROSS N OHIO VALLEY ON THU. ECMWF ABOUT AS FAR N BUT NOT AS DEEP WHILE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER S. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FARTHEST S WITH AN OPEN WAVE SLIDING ACROSS FAR S OHIO VALLEY. HPC EXPRESSES LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS ALL CWA DUE TO POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT FARTHER NORTH TO SYSTEM AND DUE TO LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW OVR N HALF OF CWA. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S FM CNTRL CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND SO WENT SOME LGT LK EFFECT IN N FLOW FRI THEN HAVE A DRY FCST FOR NEXT SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH SUN EVENING THROUGH MON EVENING MIZ002-004-005-009. WINTER STORM WATCH SUN EVENING THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON MIZ010-MIZ011-MIZ012-MIZ013. GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 330 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .SHORT TERM...NEXT 24 HOURS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AT LEAST IN COMPARISON TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA HAVING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A FORCING MECHANISM IN THE FORM OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ALONG NORTHWEST GULF COAST...WITH OUR AREA IN LEFT EXIT REGION. IN SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO A LITTLE WARMING AROUND 700 MB AS SHOWN BY THE RUC. WILL KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AND THERE IS STILL THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING MAINLY IN THE SW SECTIONS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FLOW EXISTS. A VERY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO THE NW OF US WHERE SPC HAS MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THAT MOST OF THIS WILL SLIDE N AND NW OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT A LITTLE HIGHER POPS AND MENTION OF ISOLATED SVR IN HWO FOR UPPER DELTA BASED ON PROXIMITY OF BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. SUNDAY OVERALL LOOKS EVEN LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON RELATIVELY STRONG NEGATIVE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVER MOST AREAS AS BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION FOCUSES TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 20 PCT RANGE. WINDS COULD BE A BIT OF A PROBLEM AGAIN SUNDAY...AS GFS SHOWS 30-35 KT 925/850 MB FLOW AND GOOD MIXING. WILL PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT A LOW END LAKE WIND ADVISORY AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON LOCKING LATER SHIFTS INTO THIS DECISION YET AND JUST MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TONIGHT WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS IMPLY A LITTLE MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS OUT OF CONTROL AS TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 80 TO 85 AREAWIDE. WENT NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /AEG/ && SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN ASSOC WITH LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL TAIL SSW FROM THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST UPWARD FORCING WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUFFICIENT WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN TSTM DEVELOPMENT...BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AND THEN INTO EAST CENTRAL/SE MS MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SE AR AND NORTHWEST MS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ABOVE NOSE OF 336K 850MB THETAE RIDGE. 50KT SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAY 15KT SOUTH WINDS AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL TSTMS/TORNADOES IN THE HWO. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A NEW SURGE OF ENERGY/MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES DURING AFTN PEAK HEATING OVER EC/SE MS. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED WITH HOW THE TIMING OF PEAK HEATING COULD ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LATE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF LIMITED FORCING RESULTS IN CELLULAR NATURE OF STORMS. AS MENTIONED...WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH SUPERCELLS STILL A POSSIBILITY. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME FROST OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE/EC MS. WED NIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. 12Z GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH WETTER AND A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...WITH THE GFS PERHAPS THE STRONGEST. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND SLOWED TIMING IN THE GRIDS. /EC/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. && $$ AEG/EC ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1140 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .UPDATE...WINDS ARE STAYING UP SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS ALREADY WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE CURVE ON GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPPED MAXES IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE READINGS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST MAXES...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE RISE SLOW DOWN AS WE APPROACH FULL MIXING. HAVE SEEN A BIT OF GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR LWA CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS MORNING AS INITIAL MIXING OCCURRED...BUT RUC IMPLIES THAT WINDS WILL NOT GET ANY STRONGER AS WE ARE NEARLY FULLY MIXED AND NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN 925/850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. AS FAR AS CONVECTION...12Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWED A DECENT CAP...BUT LOWER 80S/MID 60S TEMP/DEWPOINTS WOULD PRETTY MUCH GET RID OF IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIX SOUNDING SHOWS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD ADVECT NORTH AND HELP WEAKEN THE CAPPING. RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SE LA/SRN MS...AND AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR ALSO HINTS AT A DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NW GULF WHICH COULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT IN THE SE. SITUATION A BIT MORE COMPLEX IN THE NW AREA. APPEARS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AS THOUGH SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER DELTA...WITH SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO BE MOVING THRU THE ARKLATEX AT THIS POINT...AND AM UNSURE WHETHER IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SE TO AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DELTA. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH GOING FORECAST AND MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY...0-6 KM SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MULTICELL CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND AS YOU GO TO THE NW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED JAN SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT WITH JAN SHOWING 29 VERTICAL TOTALS AND RUC KEEPING 27 TO 29 VERTICAL TOTAL MOST AREAS TODAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS OVER THE DELTA REGION WHERE CRAVEN SIG SVR PARAMETERS APCH 40K BY 00Z AND SHEAR/FORCING SEEMS BETTER. THIS ALL AGREES WELL WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. && .AVIATION...3000-4000 FT CIGS SHOULD BE PREVALENT TODAY WITH BKN CU FIELD ACROSS AREA. CONVECTION WILL POSE A PROBLEM AND WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE SOME TEMPO TSRA AT ALL SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...TRYING TO HIT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR EACH SITE. DECENT LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD IFR CIG/VSBY LATER TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. && AEG ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1050 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS ALREADY WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE CURVE ON GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPPED MAXES IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE READINGS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST MAXES...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE RISE SLOW DOWN AS WE APPROACH FULL MIXING. HAVE SEEN A BIT OF GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR LWA CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS MORNING AS INITIAL MIXING OCCURRED...BUT RUC IMPLIES THAT WINDS WILL NOT GET ANY STRONGER AS WE ARE NEARLY FULLY MIXED AND NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN 925/850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. AS FAR AS CONVECTION...12Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWED A DECENT CAP...BUT LOWER 80S/MID 60S TEMP/DEWPOINTS WOULD PRETTY MUCH GET RID OF IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIX SOUNDING SHOWS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD ADVECT NORTH AND HELP WEAKEN THE CAPPING. RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SE LA/SRN MS...AND AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR ALSO HINTS AT A DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NW GULF WHICH COULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT IN THE SE. SITUATION A BIT MORE COMPLEX IN THE NW AREA. APPEARS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AS THOUGH SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER DELTA...WITH SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO BE MOVING THRU THE ARKLATEX AT THIS POINT...AND AM UNSURE WHETHER IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SE TO AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DELTA. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH GOING FORECAST AND MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY...0-6 KM SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MULTICELL CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND AS YOU GO TO THE NW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED JAN SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT WITH JAN SHOWING 29 VERTICAL TOTALS AND RUC KEEPING 27 TO 29 VERTICAL TOTAL MOST AREAS TODAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS OVER THE DELTA REGION WHERE CRAVEN SIG SVR PARAMETERS APCH 40K BY 00Z AND SHEAR/FORCING SEEMS BETTER. THIS ALL AGREES WELL WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. && .AVIATION...3000-4000 FT CIGS SHOULD BE PREVALENT TODAY WITH BKN CU FIELD ACROSS AREA. CONVECTION WILL POSE A PROBLEM AND WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE SOME TEMPO TSRA AT ALL SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...TRYING TO HIT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR EACH SITE. DECENT LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD IFR CIG/VSBY LATER TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && AEG ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 225 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RUC INDICATE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS THIS MORNING BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT OVER WESTERN THIRD SECTIONS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NIGHT. THEN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE/BUFKIT INDICATING CONSIDERABLE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK EVENTHOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS 6-8 MPH. BUT ANTICIPATE WIND TO DROP OFF TO NEARLY CALM FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK/SUNRISE. ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE MOST PREVALENT FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK/SUNRISE...09Z DISSIPATING AROUND 14Z. AIR MASS DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS LITTLE LESS CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. QUITE WARM WITH MOST READINGS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE LOWER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON TRACK. MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST MID ATLC FROM THE WEST MONDAY...THEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT DURING THE DAY...GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE SPED UP APPROACH OF FRONT WITH GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND INDICATE MORE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO THINK GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT SPINS UP A 32 PER SEC VORT OVER AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY (06Z-12Z). BEST TIME FRAME FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...SHORTLY AFTER 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. ALSO ADDED MENTIONED OF THUNDER EVENTHOUGH MARGINAL AND POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMICS TO WEAKEN AFTER CROSSING MOUNTAINS. POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL LINE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE FRONT EAST OF AREA AND DRYING IN CWA BY 18Z TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AREA WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE END OF THE. ANOTHER FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE ONLY SMALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION... SHORT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THREE OR FOUR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT INTO VIRGINIA BEFORE DARK. ELSEWHERE PIN HEAD SHOWERS WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT LIGHT FOG AND STRATUS BEFORE DAWN AND WINDS WILL GO CALM MOST AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE HOURS AROUND DAWN. CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR AROUND 14Z AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KNOTS AND GUSTY EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET SUNDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RA/RLH LONG TERM...RA AVIATION...RLH/BSD nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 221 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... FORECAST THIS PERIOD BASED MAINLY ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND BLEND OF RUC, NAM, AND GFS MODEL RUNS. FROM THIS INFORMATION, EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SPREAD INTO THE REST THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY CONSIDERATIONS SHOW ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY RESTRICTED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES, WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWER BAND ON SUNDAY COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THOSE VALUES (LOWER 70S). && .AVIATION... AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION, EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN AFFECTING LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 79 (KFKL, KPIT, KMGW) THIS EVENING (00Z-02Z). DUE TO INITIAL DRY LOWLEVEL CONDITIONS AND TRENDS SHOWN BY NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO STILL MAINLY BE IN VFR RANGE (6SM -SHRA BR OVC035CB). AS LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE MOIST LATE TONIGHT, EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE MIDDAY SHOWER BAND AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (4SM -SHRA BR OVC020CB). && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... MILD WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH TIME. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHWEST FLOW PULLS COOLER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD KICK OFF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE IS ADDED TO THE AIR. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OVERRUNNNING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES BY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 255 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT EARLY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH THROUGH ROCHESTER MINNESOTA AND WATERLOO IOWA. NO PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT YET THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST TO MILWAUKEE. THE RUC SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1200 J/KG AT 20Z ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE CAPES ARE POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN MOLINE AND DUBUQUE NO OTHER SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. OVERALL THE GFS AND NAM WERE POORLY INITIALIZED WITH THEIR 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURE ERRORS RANGED FROM 2C TO 5C TOO COLD. AS A RESULT... THE MODELS WERE TOO COOL WITH THEIR SURFACE HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. OTHER THAN THESE DISCREPANCIES...THE GFS AND NAM WERE WELL INITIALIZED WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND WIND FIELDS. LATEST UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE EUROPEAN MODELS...WHILE NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER. IN FACT...FROM 00Z 13MAR06- 00Z 14MAR06... 80 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.30 INCH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...80 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME INDICATED THE 0C 850MB ISOTHERM FROM NEAR KTOB TO KMFI. BASED ON ENSEMBLES...PREFER THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN WI. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH IN DETAILS OF CURRENT DATA BASE. THUS...EXPECT BULK OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A SHORT WAVE 500 MB RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE OPEN CELLULAR CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. IN ADDITION...THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM...AND THEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONES WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTOGENETIC AREA WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF AT START OF THE PERIOD IN WEST TO EAST DIRECTION...AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 50 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL BRING ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY SATURATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL STILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AT THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIPITATION. IF THE DRY AIR CAUSES THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE TO FALL BELOW ZERO ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS SNOW. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE...BUT THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL SHOWS THAT THAT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. AS WE APPROACH EVENING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH VERTICAL VELOCITIES ACROSS DODGE AND WABASHA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW... AND SLEET. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY...MOST INTENSE PART OF THIS STORM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED Q-G CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES BETWEEN 00Z 13MAR06 - 12Z 13MAR06...THEN EXITS BY 18Z MONDAY. INITIAL BURST OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INDICATED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM KULM...KMSP...KIWD. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS ANTICIPATED TO MAXIMIZE IN THIS SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KTOB TO KMDZ. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL ALSO HAVE TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WORK WITH. THIS RESULTS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS. IN FACT...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH AROUND 1C. MAXIMUM WET BULB VALUES IN THIS ZONE WERE ALSO AROUND 1C. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING SITES...WE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY FOR ZONES ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE WHERE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEETING WARNING CRITERIA...AS WELL AS WORST TRAVELING PROBLEMS DUE TO WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE TO IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE HAD THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND POSITION...BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH SUGGESTING A SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO NUDGE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UPWARD A BIT. REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK WAS NOT CHANGED. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032. MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-MNZ086. IA...NONE. && $$ THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1119 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON 17C 925 MB TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED BY THE RAOB OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. MIXING THESE TEMPERATURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL YIELD 65 TO 70F TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL... AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...I RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MENTIONED RECORD HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE 15Z RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW CAPES APPROACHING A 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE CAPES ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BOYNE wi