Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111900-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM.
BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ONE INCH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES APPEARS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA TO
MARSHALL TO NEAR MACON. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COOLER AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST.

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE...FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND HALF INCHES
MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. THE RIVERS OR CREEKS WHICH ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL INCLUDE....SOUTH GRANDE...BIG CREEK...BLACKWATER...LAMINE...MONITEAU
AND WAKENDA. THE THREAT WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE NORTH...SOME OF THE HEAVIER
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SOME SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AREAS. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FAVORED
AREA FOR THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST
JOSEPH TO TRENTON TO KIRKSVILLE. THE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FURTHER
SOUTH. PERSONS ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER OUTLOOKS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON SUNDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT AT THIS TIME.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM SAINT JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE.

$$

DB