FXUS04 KWBC 230702 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 201 AM EST TUE NOV 23 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID NOV 23/1200 UTC THRU NOV 24/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY1... THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THIS EVENTS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE SWRN U.S. CLOSED LOW. BASICALLY...THEY HAVE LITTLE IDEA OF THE SPECIFICS ASOCTD WITH SHRTWV ENERGY BEING EJECTED THRU THE SRN STREAM. TODAYS 0000 UTC GFS IS A CNVCTV FEEDBACK GENERATOR WHICH IS NOT ONLY IMPACTING ITS QPF BUT IS ALSO FEEDING BACK INTO ITS MASS FIELD DETAILS MAKING ITS FCST USELESS. THE ETA MASS FIELD FCST SEEMS MORE REASONABLE BUT ITS QPF MAXIMA ARE BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE FM RUN TO RUN. FOR THESE REASONS...THE DAY1 QPF FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS VERY IFFY. HOPEFULLY THE 0600 UTC MODEL RUNS WILL PRESENT A CLEARER PICTURE ON SPECIFICS BUT THIS FCSTR IS NOT HOLDING HIS BREATH IN THIS REGARD. VERY FRUSTRATING. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY... THE ONE PLACE THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME QPF CONSISTENCY IS HERE WHERE STG DYNAMIC COOLING ASOCTD WITH THE ADVANCING CLOSED UPPER LO ASOCTD SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY PCPN. LATEST STLT AND RADAR IMAGERY INDCTG WIDESPREAD SHWRS ALREADY DVLPNG AND ADVANCING NWD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LO GIVING SOME CREDENCE TO THE MODEL QPFS. THE STG LO TO MID LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT SETS BUT BTWN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SGFNT SHWR ACTVTY STREAKING ENEWD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTO INTO THE MID MS BY LATER THIS EVNG AND TNGT. ...THE LLVL BNDRY INVOF THE GULF COAST... THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS BNDRY WILL REMAIN SGFNT ENUF TO CONTINUE TO FOCUS MSTR CNVGNC TODAY. SUSPECT THAT THE MODELS ARE AGAIN UNDERPLAYING THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL HAVE LEFT FRONT REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT TO HELP AID THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SPECIFICS HOWEVER ARE DIFFICULT TO COME BY AS MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE SRN STREAM ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFINE. THE ETA DOES INDC ONE WEAK IMPULSE OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST AT 24HRS WHICH IF IT IS THERE WILL HAVE LOTS OF LLVL SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEX TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE SGFNT SHWRS. OPTED TO BUY INTO THE ETA IDEA FOR NOW. ...AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS SFC LO AND CDFNT... STG FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED AS THE PLAINS SFC LO EVOLVES. THE BNDRY SHOULD BE ACCELERATING AS IT MOVE ACROSS TX AND INTO THE LWR MS VLY BY TMW MRNG. SGFNT CNVCTV RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS STG LVL MSTR CNVGNC AND STGLY FVBL DIV ALOFT CONTRIBUTE TO ACTVTY INVOF THE FEATURE. STAYED CLOSE TO THE ETA FRONTAL SPECIFICS FOR THE QPF PLACEMENT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF HVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STREAK NEWD THRU THE TN VLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PD WHERE STGLY FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO LIFT ACTVTY INVOF AN OLD DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS GUESSING TO WHAT EXTENT CNVCTN TO ITS SOUTH COULD INHIBIT MSTR ADVECTION INTO THIS FEATURE.. ...PACIFIC NW... ETA AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THEIR 24HR PCPN AMTS AND COVERAGE HERE BUT DIFFER ON THE FINER DETAILS AS A WAA PCPN PATN OCCURS IN ASOCTN WITH SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG INTO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING NERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE. KORTY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 24/12Z 0.01 499714 499710 498706 495704 492703 487704 483705 478708 468715 454726 446733 438739 410774 403777 399776 399771 401766 405763 413758 420751 426743 428740 430734 428732 425732 423732 415732 410731 411723 409714 408708 406705 402703 397705 392709 388713 383721 380726 378731 373734 370735 366730 360722 358720 354721 348726 345730 340734 335741 332747 331754 327768 321785 317794 311800 304807 298815 294821 291828 288835 287843 289853 288862 286875 284890 284895 283900 280907 276915 273924 269932 267940 266949 266959 268966 267974 265982 263991 266996 268000 269004 272011 276013 284012 289019 294018 297016 302009 308004 313001 316000 317003 317022 321028 322038 323044 324048 324056 330066 330070 329072 324077 323083 325087 326090 326093 324100 324104 325107 328109 332112 337113 340112 344110 346106 346103 344093 349092 354092 358090 361087 361084 356076 357071 360068 364065 369065 373071 374081 379086 388088 394090 399088 406080 415077 418074 420068 427065 428059 425054 418052 408051 398050 391049 389059 385065 384069 382071 379067 377065 374063 372062 371059 372054 377045 384028 387014 387003 389991 393983 396973 398964 402946 406929 408910 409898 411889 414883 417879 425872 433866 442860 453854 460850 467843 471834 474831 478829 489823 491819 492814 490809 485803 478800 473799 468800 458803 455800 457795 458789 458782 460776 463772 469764 484746 486741 490737 494730 497727 498722 499714 0.01 534230 535219 536207 535202 534195 533191 532185 530179 526171 522164 507148 496142 486130 483128 477124 473120 473117 474113 475107 473103 471100 467098 463094 460089 455077 452073 448069 444067 439068 436070 434074 439079 442082 441088 439087 434087 430089 427089 426094 427100 423105 422108 423111 426115 430119 434120 437121 441123 443129 436140 434145 433155 434161 437165 440169 441174 440180 436187 436192 436197 438202 442206 444211 442212 431216 425219 423221 424226 423233 420234 414234 412237 412239 415242 419245 430256 442256 453257 461261 468265 472268 478274 492288 501294 504296 511296 0.01 376776 375772 374771 374773 373776 373778 374781 376777 376776 0.25 514281 517274 518267 518258 517253 514242 512237 509231 502214 497208 492203 486203 471208 464211 457215 454218 453223 452231 449236 448240 449242 454245 459247 468250 478256 484262 490270 495277 501285 507287 511285 514281 0.25 396891 395889 392886 383888 380885 378880 378875 380856 379845 376834 372827 367819 362815 358814 352818 351816 350810 351801 350792 349787 347783 343781 339787 340793 338796 334796 330798 328801 323808 321813 318821 315827 307836 302842 299849 296858 295866 292894 288909 285917 284924 280954 279971 278978 279983 279988 282992 284994 288995 297993 304992 309989 316986 321984 325986 328995 327005 327012 331018 335023 337028 340034 344044 346048 349051 355051 359048 361045 364038 370026 373018 376009 378000 380990 384971 387958 391938 393929 395918 396906 397895 396891 0.50 508278 510272 511266 509255 507248 504238 500233 496222 492217 485211 481210 477211 470213 465215 459220 461227 462229 458232 457234 455236 455239 458241 463243 470246 479251 484255 490262 499274 503278 505279 508278 0.50 389916 390911 389906 387905 383905 377905 374901 371892 370881 373865 373852 372844 371840 369836 366833 362833 358837 349848 346847 342842 339837 336834 332822 328822 324825 320830 307846 303852 300858 298872 297879 298887 296897 291909 290916 289923 286949 284956 284962 284971 286981 289984 292985 296984 299982 302983 306985 318980 326977 330981 332988 333996 332001 333007 338009 340011 342014 348030 351035 352037 356039 360035 363030 369017 372010 374003 379977 383959 385943 389916 1.00 378941 378935 376933 368936 364938 360941 355946 351954 346961 342966 339974 338979 339984 339997 341001 345002 347004 350010 351017 354021 357022 360021 365015 368008 370000 372989 374981 375969 377948 378941 1.00 364861 362854 361854 356860 351869 343876 336882 333881 335868 336864 336858 335853 332852 326857 320865 316867 314867 313864 312854 313850 309853 306856 304860 303864 303870 304877 304884 301894 297905 295912 294920 295927 294934 293944 291952 291957 293960 296961 296967 296971 302970 313970 317969 321966 321962 318958 317955 319951 321947 326941 331934 343921 349912 352906 355895 357885 361873 364861 1.50 370964 369959 366957 360963 358967 354971 350978 348989 352997 355001 356006 359011 363008 365005 366997 367986 368976 370964 1.50 330869 329865 326866 320872 314877 309882 304897 300904 299914 299922 299931 298939 298942 301940 306935 310926 312920 316912 318906 316900 313898 315890 320882 323877 328873 330870 330869 2.00 308915 309912 308909 306908 304910 303913 303917 303918 302920 303923 304926 305923 306922 307919 308917 308915 $$