000 NOUS44 KMRX 040326 PNSMRX NCC039-043-TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067- 073-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155-163- 171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-520-720-121200- DROUGHT STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1200 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007 NOTE: THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO ISSUED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MEMESFMRX OR WMO HEADER FGUS74 KMRX ...ATTENTION: SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OVER THE REGION...FOR GRAPHIC DISPLAYS ON THE INTERNET GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML ...DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR EAST TENNESSEE...EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA... INTRODUCTION... D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, APPROACHING THE CHATTANOOGA METRO AREA. [NOTE: IN THE WEB GRAPHIC ABOVE, OFFICIAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE IMPROVED AROUND THE CHATTANOOGA METRO AREA, BUT RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE WORSENED AND CONDITIONS HAVE NOT IMPROVED SINCE LAST WEEK.] D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA. THEY ALSO EXIST OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THE CENTRAL VALLEY UP TO A GATLINBURG-MORRISTOWN-CUMBERLAND GAP LINE, AND FROM THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA LINE. D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, TO ABOUT A ROAN MOUNTAIN-WISE LINE. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT COVERS EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE NORTHEAST OF A ROAN MOUNTAIN-WISE LINE. PRECIPITATION STATUS... RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA`S PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION. FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS THE YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL STORY IS LIKE THIS, AS OF JULY 3: SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM CHATTANOOGA 14.29 29.39 -15.10 49 KNOXVILLE 14.17 26.91 -12.74 53 TRI-CITIES 11.25 22.69 -11.44 50 RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE AT BEST IN MOST PLACES. EVEN THOUGH SOME SPOTS DID GET ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING, THIS MUCH WATER IN ONE SHOT MAINLY JUST RUNS OFF AND DOES NOBODY ANY GOOD. ONE LOCATION IN MARION COUNTY, TENNESSEE GOT OVER TWO INCHES IN ONE HOUR. TWO INCHES OVER ONE DAY WOULD HAVE BEEN A BOON. PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN LIKEWISE MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THE WORST HIT AREAS ARE IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDER AREAS. FOLLOWING ARE SOME RAINFALL STATS FOR YEAR-TO-DATE, AS OF JULY 3, 2007, BY BASIN: LAKE NAME RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM GUNTERSVILLE 13.62 30.22 -16.60 45 NICKAJACK 11.47 28.45 -16.98 40 CHICKAMAUGA 13.38 28.67 -15.29 47 WATTS BAR 16.67 27.56 -10.89 60 FT. LOUD/TEL 14.41 26.61 -12.20 54 HIWASSEE 17.23 31.00 -13.77 56 NOTTELY 20.31 29.38 -9.07 69 CHATUGE 15.90 31.52 -15.62 50 MELTON HILL 14.59 26.86 -12.27 54 NORRIS 16.32 24.66 -8.34 66 FONTANA 19.79 32.28 -12.49 61 DOUGLAS 16.48 24.73 -8.25 67 CHEROKEE 15.34 23.38 -8.04 66 BOONE 15.67 24.04 -8.37 65 WATAUGA 18.14 24.45 -6.31 74 S. HOLSTON 17.01 23.38 -6.37 73 IT IS APPARENT THAT RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS. ALSO, FROM THE ABOVE LIST, YOU CAN SEE THE RAINFALL SHORTAGES ARE THE WORST FURTHER SOUTH, BUT NONETHELESS BAD UP NORTH. SOIL MOISTURE... AS A RESULT OF THIS RAINFALL DEFICIT, SOIL MOISTURE IS SUFFERING, AS WELL. VISUAL EVIDENCE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN IN FARM PONDS AND NORMALLY FILLED SINKHOLES WHICH ARE EMPTY OR VERY LOW. EVEN AFTER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, TOPSOIL RETURNS TO A DRY STATE VERY QUICKLY. THE DEEP WATER TABLE IS VERY MUCH REDUCED AND THIS IS APPARENT IN EXTREMELY LOW TO RECORD LOW STREAM FLOWS. IN THE SURFACE TO 40 CENTIMETER (ABOUT 16 INCHES) DEEP LAYER, SOILS HAVE GENERALLY 50-70% OF THE MOISTURE THEY NORMALLY SHOULD HAVE FOR THE DATE. THE WORST AREAS EXTEND FROM THE GEORGIA-TENNESSEE-ALABAMA AREA UP THE PLATEAU, ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY, AND BACK DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TO CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. FURTHER NORTHEAST, SOILS HAVE BETWEEN 70% AND 80% OR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE. THESE FIGURES PUT MOST AREAS IN THE 2-5% RANGE OF NORMALCY. IN OTHER WORDS, 95-98% OF THE TIME FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE HAVE HAD BETTER SOIL CONDITIONS. IN THE DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 200 CENTIMETERS (ABOUT 6.5 FEET), SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY GATLINBURG-HARRIMAN LINE, SOILS HAVE ABOUT 70-80% OF NORMAL MOISTURE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THERE IS ABOUT 80-90% NORMALCY. IT IS EVIDENT THAT EVEN THE DEEP LAYERS ARE VERY DRY, ESPECIALLY FOR AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION. SHALLOW WELLS ARE ALSO AFFECTED. CURRENT STREAM FLOWS... THE CURRENT VOLUME OF WATER IN STREAMS REFLECTS THE DEPTH OF THE DEEP WATER TABLE. CURRENT STREAM FLOWS IN THE REGION RANGE FROM MUCH BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LOW, DEPENDING ON WHERE RECENT RAIN HAS FALLEN. EVEN WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS, AS FELL IN MARION COUNTY, LOCAL STREAMS HAVE ONLY BEEN BROUGHT UP TO NORMAL LEVELS. RAINS SUCH AS THIS WOULD NORMALLY CAUSE FLOODING OR BANKFULL CONDITIONS. STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE SIMPLY THE GROUND WATER TABLE APPEARING ON THE SURFACE. THE FLOW ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT CHATTANOOGA IS 101ST OUT OF 105 YEARS OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLOOD CONTROL SPACE IN THE SYSTEM ABOVE CHATTANOOGA IS 196 PERCENT OF NORMAL, MEANING THERE IS 96% MORE ROOM FOR FLOOD WATER STORAGE IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM ABOVE CHATTANOOGA THAN IS NORMAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD. THAT IS NEARLY TWICE AS MUCH AS THERE SHOULD BE. PUT SIMPLY, IT WOULD TAKE A SUDDEN RAIN OF THREE INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN TO BRING THE RESERVOIRS UP TO FLOOD LEVEL. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN. JUNE WAS A WET MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS. DESPITE THIS, RUNOFF REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THIS INDICATES THAT THE GROUND IS SUCKING UP THE RAIN AND NOT LETTING MUCH RUN AWAY. THIS IS FURTHER EVIDENCED BY LOW STREAMS AND PONDS. FLOODING... NO FLOODING OCCURRING AND NO FLOODING IN SIGHT, ALTHOUGH EVEN IN EXTREME DROUGHTS FLOODING CAN OCCUR LOCALLY IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. EXPECTED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES... THROUGH MID JULY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR NORMAL RAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH NORMAL RAINFALL. FOR THE PERIOD JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. OUTLOOKS... PERSISTENCE OF DROUGHT IS USUALLY THE BEST BET WHEN PREDICTING DROUGHT BEHAVIOR. AT THIS POINT, WE WOULD NEED A FEW TROPICAL STORMS MOVING OVER THE REGION WITH PROLONGED MODERATE RAIN (WITH NO FLOODING) TO BRING US UP TO NORMAL. STILL, THE DEEP WATER TABLE WOULD NOT RECOVER AS QUICKLY AND SO WE REALLY NEED A VERY WET SUMMER, FALL, AND WINTER, TO GET US OUT OF THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. CAUTIONS... DEPICTIONS ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR WEBPAGE SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND IN THE CHATTANOOGA METRO REGION. THIS WAS BASED IN EXTREMELY HEAVY, BUT BRIEF, RAINS THAT OCCURRED. FOR MOST PLACES THAT RECEIVED SUCH RAINS, IT WAS ALL THEY GOT IN A WEEK. THERE WAS SOME GREENING UP OF WEEDS AND LIGHT GRASSES AND WATER RESISTANT SHRUBBERY, ETC, BUT WITHOUT CONTINUING RAINS LIKE THIS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIOTE RAPIDLY. THIS DROUGHT IS NOT OVER, AND "IMPROVEMENTS" CAN BE DECEPTIVE. NOT THE CALL TO ACTION BELOW. CALL TO ACTION... USE LESS WATER! BLOWING OR SWEEPING OFF DRIVEWAYS WILL SAVE WATER. TURNING OFF WATER WHEN BRUSHING TEETH AND SHAVING, TAKING SHORT SHOWERS AND NOT BATHS WILL ALSO SAVE WATER. IF YOU HAVE TO WATER OUTDOOR PLANTS, USE SOAKER HOSES AFTER SUNSET, OR SPOT WATER THEM TO DECREASE EVAPORATION. EVERY LITTLE BIT, TOTALED UP AMONG ALL OF US, WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. MOST PEOPLE CAN FIND OTHER EFFECTIVE WAYS TO SAVE WATER AND STILL HAVE A COMFORTABLE LIFESTYLE. FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS CONTACT: BRIAN BOYD SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 5974 COMMERCE BLVD. MORRISTOWN, TN 37814 423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY) 423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS) EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX $$