SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST WED OCT 27 1999
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A RATHER VIGOROUS
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM CALIFORNIA
DURING FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE HALLOWEEN
WEEKEND...WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...SOME CU/SC DEVELOPED THRU HIGHER TERRAIN OF ZONES 19/30
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER RATHER STRONG BACKWASH FLOW WITH LOW NEAR NM
BORDER. RUC INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS FAR W AS PHX AND CGZ.
WILL CONTINUE SHORT TERM FCST TRENDS WITH ETA PUTTING VORT MIN OVR
ERN AZ BY 06Z. TEMPS DROPPING OFF FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
ETA PUTS VIGOROUS S/WV ALONG NRN CALIFORNIA COAST BY 12Z AND JUST A
BIT DEEPER THAN PREV RUNS. TROF TO GRAZE TUS CWFA LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN GRADIENTS BY LATE FRIDAY. SPEEDS
AT 850-700 MB TO RUN 15-25KTS WITH BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY...
SPCLY IN ZONES 34 AND 35. HUGE H5 RIDGE TO BRING US VERY WARM WX
FOR WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS TO STAY BLO RECORDS. SIPPLE
.TWC...NONE
FXUS65 KFGZ 272122 az
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
825 PM EDT WED OCT 27 1999
SYNOPSIS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS OVER COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS TO AROUND 30 ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ANOTHER FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREAS WEATHER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARMUP.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. LATEST
PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES SHOW PRESSURES STILL RISING OVER THE
REGION. SATL PICS INDICATE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WITH GOOD
SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT EXPECT NIL CLDS...WILL THUS CHANGE "MOSTLY
CLEAR" TO JUST PLAIN OLD "CLEAR". WINDS HAVE DE-COUPLED RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. ON A NIGHT LIKE
TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN MIN TEMPS. ETA FCST OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH...THIS COINCIDES NICELY WITH DEWPTS.
PREVIOUS MIN FCST NEAR 20 WILL COVER ANY MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS...
SO EITHER 15 TO 20 OR NEAR 20 WOULD WORK. IN FACT CURRENT MIN FCST
LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE MINS ON THE DOWNEAST COAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN THE CURRENT MID 20S FCST. SINCE THE COAST IS
CURRENTLY GROUPED WITH THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZONES HAVE BUMPED MINS
TO 25 TO 30. HOWEVER WOULD NOT OPPOSE SPLITTING THE COAST FROM THE
INTERIOR WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 ALONG
THE COAST.
CWF: WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE N...CAA SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP FOR A
WHILE YET...AND IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC FCST. WOULD RECOMMEND
LEAVING 10 TO 20 KTS UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH CRESTS NEAR THE COAST.
.CAR...NONE.
LULOFS
FXUS71 KGYX 280027 me
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE
1035 PM EDT WED OCT 27 1999
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE WINDS...CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC FRONT FROM WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR
THROUGH NW WI. TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS PRODUCING
VIGOROUS WAA AND STRONG LLJ. KMQT 88D INDICATED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K
FT. KIWD INDICATED GUSTS AOA 30 KTS SINCE 0Z. KMQT AND KSAW ALSO IN
THE 15-25 KT RANGE. 21Z RUC CAPTURES WIND TREND BRINGING 50 KT LLJ
INTO CNTRL UPR MI AT 06Z AND TO NE LK SUPERIOR BY 09Z.
FORTUNATELY...INCREASING STABILITY WITH WAA (H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C) SHOULD WILL KEEP VERY STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING SFC.
HOWEVER... WILL STILL NEED TO BOOST WINDS A NOTCH GIVEN SFC OB
TRENDS.
STRONG 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT ONLY PRODUCING BKN AC AS HIGH COND
PRES DEFICITS PREVAIL BLO 600 MB...PER LCL 00Z SNDGS. ALTHOUGH FRONT
FCST NEAR NEAR CNTRL UPR MI BY 12Z WITH CAA IN ITS WAKE. MILD TEMP
FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
.MQT...GALE WARNING E LAKE SUPERIOR.
JLB
FXUS63 KGRR 280213 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE
1211 AM EDT WED OCT 27 1999
H5 RDG OVR WRN GRT LKS REGION DRFTG SLOWLY EWRD W/RUC DEPICTED WK
NVA. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO PERSISTENT AND LOWERING 950 MB
INVERSION SHOWN ON APX AND GRB 12Z SOUNDINGS. GOES VIS/IR LOOPS
SHOW BKN MID AND HIGH LVL CLDS OVR ERN 2/3 LAKE SUPERIOR AND SCT-BKN
LOW-MID LEVEL CLDS OVR WEST AND CENTRAL UPR MI. LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH H8 -1 TO -4C AIR OVR 7-8C
WATER SFC. OVR LAND...MOISTURE BEING SQUEEZED IN LOW LEVELS AS
INVERSION SINKS DURG EARLY AFTN...AND INSOLATION...RETARDED BY BKN
MID LVL CLDS...GRADUALLY ERODING THE PATCHY MORNING STRATUS IN
CENTRAL UPR. RUC SNDGS MAINTAIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABV 12KFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WK SE CYCLONIC SFC FLOW OVR UPR WITH MDT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
HELP MAINTAIN CLDS THIS AFTN.
ZONE UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING. AFTN MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH 430 AM ZONE PACKAGE. WILL KEEP SFC WINDS BTWN SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.
.MQT...NONE.
JP
FXUS63 KAPX 271510 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT EDT WED OCT 27 1999
COMINGS AND GOINGS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NECESSITATES AN UPDATE HERE.
AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST CWA...LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS
SPREADING INLAND IN THUMB AND MACOMB COUNTY. LATEST RUC INDICATES
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN THUMB COUNTIES AND
INTO LAKE ST CLAIR UNTIL AROUND 12Z. RECENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE
INDICATE THAT LAKE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP...AND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THE WANE...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
HAVE ISSUED ZONE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. NORTHWEST ZONE
NOW CALLED MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WHILE LAKE ZONES CARRY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS EARLY WITH TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SUNNY. EXCEPTION
NORTHEAST THUMB WHERE WILL CONTINUE PARTLY SUNNY.
.DTX...NONE.
OKEEFE
FXUS63 KMQT 270834 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT WED OCT 27 1999
CLEAR SKIES WITH SERLY SURFACE WINDS. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN WRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS. WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE ERN MN AND W CENTRAL WI
UNTIL LATE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND STRONG INVERSIONS...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SURPRESSED SOME.
.MSP...NONE.
SCOTT
FXUS63 KDLH 271518 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
900 PM EDT WED OCT 27 1999
LOWS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS EVENING BUT RECENT 3.9 SAT
PICS SHOW A RAPID BREAK UP TO THE CLOUDS OVR ERN NY WITH A SLOWER
TREND OVER W CNTRL NY AND NE PA. RUC SHOWS MUCH DRIER LOW LVL AIR
TO MOVE INTO CWA OVRNGT SO EXPECT THIS CLRING TREND TO CONT. LOW
LVL WINDS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING MORE WLY LATER TNGT WHICH WILL HELP
WITH THE CLRING. HWVR OVR NERN PA LOW CLDS APPEAR MUCH THICKER ON
SAT PICS AND NOT REALLY SEEING TOO MUCH EROSION OVR SRN CWA.
THERFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CLDS A LITTLE BIT LONGER FOR NE PA ZNS.
DESPITE THE LINGERING CLDS STILL THINK OVRNGT MINS LOOK GOOD GIVEN
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS...WE SHOULD DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE CLDS CLR OUT.
.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES
FXUS61 KALY 280046 ny
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 27 1999
...CLOUDS/TEMPS AND WIND AFTERNOON FORECAST CONCERNS...
SFC LO ANALYZED NEAR KABR ATTM WITH TROF/OCCLUDED FNT EXTENDING NWD
THRU ERN ND BTWEEEN DVL AND GFK. EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID/HI CLOUD
PUSHING INTO ND CWA THIS AM AS INTENSE H7 WAA AS DEPICTED BY LATEST
RUC MODEL PROVIDES LIFT. SLOWER MOVEMENT TO FNT CONTINUES TO BE FCST
PBLM...AS SFC FEATURE IN SD HANGS IT UP...WITH RUC NOW INDICATING
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER TO BE JUST S OF MOT AT 18Z.
DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LAG WELL BEHIND IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE...WITH RA/SN IN ERN MT BUT LITTLE PRECIP REPORTED IN ND.
MAIN EFFECT OF BOUNDARY IN OUR CWA THIS AFTN SHUD BE WIND SHIFT TO
GUSTY N WIND AS NOW ONGONG IN DVL. CLOUD COVER AND INCOMING CAA SHUD
KEEP NW CWA COOLEST THIS AFTN AS H85 2C LINE GETS TO DVL BY 21Z WITH
LARGE GRADIENT TO +14C NR FFM. GUD SW FLO ALOFT IN SW CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPEDE PROGRESS OF FNT AND PROVIDE SOMEWHAT OF A DRY
SLOT IN THIS PART OF CWA SO WILL STAY MSUNNY THERE FOR AWHILE LONGER.
PLAN ON IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS A BIT IN S/SE CWA AND BUMPING UP
TEMPS A NOTCH. MAY ALSO LOWER VALUES A TAD LOWER IN FAR NW CWA WHERE
THICKER CLOUDS AND CAA COULD TEMPER RISES SOMEWHAT...WITH LATEST
LAMP ONLY GIVING UPPER 40S IN THAT AREA FOR AFTN. STILL AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOIST BLO H7 WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR E
BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLO TURNS N AND SHUNTS IT SOUTH...SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP THIS AFTN...EVEN THO GUD MOIST CONVERGECNE AND U/L DIVERGENCE
ARE PRESENT. WINDS ON TARGET FOR INCREASING FROM THE NNW BY AFTN SO
NO CHANGES THERE.
UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM CDT.
.FGF...NONE.
SOROKA
FXUS63 KBIS 270833 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 AM EDT WED OCT 27 1999
UPR TROF/VORT MAX MVS WELL EAST OF AREA THIS MRNG. A COUPLE WEAK
TROFS/FNTS THRU NY STATE AND NR PA WITH GOOD AMT CLDS TRAPPED
AGAINST INVRSN FM ARND 5K-7K. ALSO SOME LOWER CLDS FAR N AND NW
DUE FLOW OFF LKS. SEEMS TO BE SOME ROTATION IN CLDS CNTRD NR NE
PA AND RUC DOES SHOW BRIEF 850 LOW THERE ERLY MRNG. VERY DIFFICULT TO
PROG THIS CLDNS BUT DOES SEEM TO BE SHEARING OFF/EVAPRTG S OF UNV-ABE
LINE. WITH CAN SFC HI MVG E TDA EXPCT INCRSG SUBSDNC AND DRYING AND
ANY MRNG OR ERLY AFTN CLDS SHUD DCRS DURG AFTN. ALSO LOW LVL WINDS
SHUD VEER TO N OR NE LATER THIS AFTN...EXCLUDING OUR CWA FM ANY
LK CLDS. SO WILL KEEP PTLY SUNNY FCST MORE NRN SCTNS THIS AFTN AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SRN AREAS.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN CURRENT FCST.
PHI...NONE.
NPC
pa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
942 PM CDT WED OCT 27 1999
00Z 50H ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO FAR WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
NEAR THE CENTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM...NEAR KCVS ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ATTM BUT THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL RETAIN THE
MENTION OF POSSIBLE SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE APPEARS TO
BE ON TRACK ACCORDING TO 00Z RUC TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING.
.LBB...NONE.
TINSLEY
FXUS64 KEPZ 280235 tx
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
907 PM CDT WED OCT 27 1999
SFC CDFNT AT 00Z ANALYZD ACROSS CENTRAL CO INTO NW KS. SFC TROUGH
EXTENDED S FM W GCK TO E KDHT WITH WEAK WV REFLECTED ALONG IT SW
KDHT. PRESSURE RISES ON ORDER OF 6MB/3HR OCCURING BEHIND FNT ALONG
WITH 20KT+ WINDS. EXPECT FROPA IN WRN OK PNHDL PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT PER
21Z RUC WITH STEADY SWRD PROGRESS AND OUT OF ALL BUT SE FA BY
DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF FNT...PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING N ACROSS ERN
ZNS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING E ACROSS W TX. IN ADDITION...A FEW
LTG STRIKES ALONG NM BORDER W KLBB WITHIN THE HR. THIS AMID PLUME OF
HIER THTE AIR WITH CONNECTIONS TO TROPICS. A FEW SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS SE ZNS AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS CROSS LATER TONIGHT
SO MAY ADD MENTION THERE THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO BE ISOLD. MAY ALSO
NEED TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS UP SOME WITH FROPA OTWS CURRENT FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE.
.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
COBB
FXUS64 KMAF 280204 AMD tx
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
830 PM CDT WED OCT 27 1999
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEARLY SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE
OVER REGION TONIGHT. NORTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE SLOWER INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS. WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON MINS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.
.HGX...NONE.
37/46
CLL BB 061/083 063/083 064 0-12
IAH BB 063/083 062/083 064 0001
GLS BB 068/079 070/080 070 0001
FXUS64 KBRO 280126 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
942 PM CDT WED OCT 27 1999
00Z 50H ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO FAR WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
NEAR THE CENTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM...NEAR KCVS ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ATTM BUT THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL RETAIN THE
MENTION OF POSSIBLE SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE APPEARS TO
BE ON TRACK ACCORDING TO 00Z RUC TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING.
.LBB...NONE.
TINSLEY
FXUS64 KEPZ 280235 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
930 AM EDT THU OCT 28 1999
CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE...SO WILL MAKE NO CHGS TO IT.
BAND OF CI APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT AS IT APPCHS FROM THE W ATTM.
LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONT AS BEST UL SUPPORT AND
MOIST CONTENT STAY UP IN CANADA THIS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAVE LOTS OF
SUN.
12Z SNDGS WITH EXPECTED WAA AT 850 MB TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT PORTRAY MAX
TEMPS QUT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE ADVERTISING.
WRK ZNS OUT. FINAL PACKAGE COMING SHORTLY.
.BGM...NONE.
JUREWICZ
FXUS61 KOKX 280728 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT THU OCT 28 1999
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN ON TAP. DID
NOTICE THAT THE LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
12Z MODEL SUITE IN AMPLIFYING THE H5 RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH...AND WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAT WEDNESDAY/S
MAXES. CONSIDERING THAT THIS WAS FACTORED INTO THE ZONE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...NO CHANGES ARE IN STORE.
.MRX...NONE.
DM
FXUS64 KMEG 280740 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
330 AM CDT THU OCT 28 1999
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
HOUR PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM THE BEST OF ALL THE MODELS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYS EXTEND ACROSS THE CWA IN
A SW-NE ORIENTATION...ALTHOUGH SKIES ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE
CWA ARE CLEARING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK FRONT EXTENDED FROM NE NM...ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE...ACROSS KS...NWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT WERE DECENT EARLIER DURING THE NIGHT...BUT LATEST
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE PRESSURE CHANGES ARE STABILIZING
QUICKLY. FRONT SHOULD LOSE MUCH OF ITS SOUTHWARD DRIVE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. MODEL PROGS WANT TO BRING THE FRONT DOWN INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS TODAY AND WASH IT OUT AND TURN IT BACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOMORROW. PER THE LATEST TRENDS...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE SWRN US. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE
IS QUITE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN THE LAST. MODELS DO NOT WANT TO
BRING IN MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT I SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
A BIT MORE TO WORK WITH THAN IS PROGGED. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. IN FACT...FROM A DYNAMIC
STANDPOINT...THIS COULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAY
BE TOO LOW TO GET ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GOING. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THAT ONE.
AT THE SURFACE THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER FRONT...A PAC FRONT...
WHICH SHOULD START MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS A PAC FRONT THIS WILL NOT BRING A
MAJOR DEEP FREEZE...BUT IT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN AT LEAST 10-15
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN. DJK
MAF 81/53/82 000
LSA 78/51/80 000
E41 82/52/83 -00
6R6 82/53/82 -00
MRF 77/43/79 -00
CNM 80/52/82 000
.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FXUS64 KBRO 280817 tx
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
145 PM MDT THU OCT 28 1999
FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN UTAH MTNS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS.
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WITH TROF PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM STILL SPLITTING WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
STAYING OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIVES THRU
THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY MORNING AND CLOSES OFF IN WEST TEXAS BY
SATURDAY. ETA THE MODEL FOLLOWED THOUGH THE 17Z RUC IS FASTER.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT THRU THE UINTAS THIS EVENING AND THRU ALL
BUT SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z. NOT A CLEAR-CUT SCENARIO WITH JET LIFT
STAYING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO NOT
IMPRESSIVE.
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS: TIME SECTIONS SHOW DEEP OMEGA ENDING
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT. INSTABILITY SHOWERS FRIDAY TO
ADD TO ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY NORTH SLOPES. OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL
PRODUCES 3-6 INCHES TONIGHT WITH SOME 50% ADDITIONAL DUE TO DYNAMIC
LIFT. 3-4 ADDITIONAL INCHES FRIDAY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE
CRITICAL 12 INCH WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN
OROGRAPHIC FAVORED LOCATIONS...AND SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON WILL ISSUE A WARNING. SNOW LEVEL TO
START AT 9000 AND DROP TO 6000...7000 CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BY
MORNING.
SOUTHERN MTNS: LIFT LOOKS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SAN JUANS
AND MOST LOCATIONS DO NOT FAVOR NW FLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
STRONGEST FRONTAL FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ISSUE
AND ADVISORY FOR THE ELK AND UNCOMPAHGRE MTNS BUT NOT THE SAN JUANS
FOR NOW.
MOISTURE AND LIFT QUICKLY EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTH FLOW AS 90 KT JET TRANSLATES. WIND AND WIND
CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WARMING
TREND BEGINS SUNDAY.
.GJT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR CO NRN AND CNTRL
MTNS... CO ZONES 4/9/10. SNOW ADVY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY UT ZONE 23 CO ZONES 12/18.
99/RAMEY
FXUS65 KBOU 281025 COR co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1055 AM MDT THU OCT 28 1999
ZONE FORECASTS UPDATED PRIMARILY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TO
PUT AFTERNOON WIND FORECASTS MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC2
OUTPUT...WHICH HAS A FAST RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS. 38
.ABQ...NONE.
FXUS65 KABQ 281100 nm