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FXUS04 KWBC 050724
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 AM EST THU FEB 05 2009
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/1200 UTC THRU FEB 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...WRN U.S...
THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS ASOCTD WITH TWO
STREAMS OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WRN U.S. THRU THIS PD.
THEY AGREE THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENERGY ASOCTD WITH THE UPPER
LOW NOW OFF CA COAST WILL BE EJECTED ACROSS SRN CA AND LIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR FCSTG MDT TO
LCLY HVY PCPN TOTALS OVR CNTRL/SRN CA WITH THIS SHRTWV. THE MODEL
QPFS DIFFER FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS SOME OF THE ENERGY ASOCTD WITH
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD TO AFFECT THE PAC NW AND THE NRN INTERMTN
REGION AS ADNL SHRTWV ENERGY DIVES INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF PSN
OFF THE WEST COAST. WHILE MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES ARE
MINOR...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE QPF DIFFERENCES OVR THE NRN CA/PAC
NW WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM REGIONAL EMPHASIZING HEAVIER AMTS OVR
NRN CA WHILE THE GFS HITS THE OR COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS.
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 04/1200 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION HERE WHICH
ALSO HAS SUPPORT FM THE NAM. FINALLY..THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF MSTR/HGT FALLS EXPECTED TO AFFECT CNTRL/SRN CA LATE IN
THE PD IS UP FOR GRABS WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM REGIONAL BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE LESS
AMPLIFIED GFS WITH BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS TO CNTRL/SRN CA
LATE IN THE PD. FEEL A COMPROMISE/BLEND MAY BE THE BEST APCH HERE
AT THIS POINT IN TIME GIVEN INABILITY TO PICK AND CHOOSE BTWN
MODELS IN THIS REGARD.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...WEST...
SEVERAL SYSTEMS FROM THE PAC WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH VALLEY
RAINFALL AND MTNS SNOW. THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW ALONG THE ACTIVE
SRN STREAM WILL DRIFT EAST INTO CA AND PROCEED DOWNSTREAM THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST. ON DAY TWO...THE MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN CA WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW COMES INTO THE SAN BERNARDINO
MTNS AND PRODUCES MODERATE RAINFALL...AND THEN CONTINUES INTO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE RAINFALL DRIFTS SOUTH WITH THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WITH TIME. MANUAL PROGS BLENDED CONTINUITY
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/21Z SREFMEAN.
ON DAY THREE...THE CLOSED LOW TURNS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PHASING DEVELOP FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. WELL DEFINED UPPER DIVERGENCE IS SHOWN IN MULTIPLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...CROSSING THE CO RIVER INTO WESTERN AZ. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITHIN MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/MOUNTAIN SNOW(SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER DESK PROBABILITY GRAPHICS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS). MANUAL PROGS
BLENDED THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS QPF...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT SOUTH
TO INDICATE FAVORED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE INFLOW AXIS OF
HIGHEST PW VALUES PLUS HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER THE GREATEST 300
MB DIVERGENCE. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE
MOGOLLON RIM DUE TO FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TURNING UPSLOPE ON
TERRAIN FACING TOWARDS THE FLOW.
KORTY/PETERSEN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 06/12Z
0.01 531239 533228 533217 533209 531198 531193 528185 521176
516171 513169 510166 500161 476151 473149 469144 463141
456139 446142 442138 441132 443125 449122 452118 452115
450106 445102 441100 435100 431101 425102 422103 421106
417107 413104 411099 409096 406097 403102 398103 395103
393105 390109 386112 383117 377118 372129 373137 375141
378138 379134 379132 381129 384128 389127 394125 394129
395133 399132 406131 411129 414130 414134 413137 407147
403149 399152 392152 385150 379150 373148 367149 362150
359152 358154 359161 364164 367167 371168 377168 383170
389179 396185 403189 414186 418189 423190 431185 433187
433191 431200 422197 416196 410197 406201 400197 396195
390192 388187 384183 379181 374177 371175 364173 357171
352168 345160 340158 337160 324158 319160 317164 318168
322177 323189 324200 326206 329211 335219 339223 345227
348230 354232 363239 379251 385255 392258 407263 419266
428267 439267 450265 469261 473261 476263 482267 487277
497286 503285 508283 514278 519271 528250
0.01 518210 515206 513204 511203 510202 508202 507202 504202
501205 502210 503213 504215 505218 508221 509222 510222
511222 514218 514217 515214 518210 518210
0.01 477843 477838 475834 473829 467817 461800 456782 451769
445758 443754 440752 435751 432757 428759 426759 423761
423768 427773 431775 437790 441795 442798 442801 437812
437817 438822 449825 451827 452831 451838 443846 437850
434854 433859 434862 438864 447861 457858 464858 470854
477843
0.01 259799 258796 257796 254797 252798 250799 249800 247802
245805 245808 246808 249808 252806 254805 255804 256802
258800 259799
0.25 451226 452222 452220 447217 442216 438218 433222 430226
427231 424231 419230 416227 415224 414217 408215 404214
399215 382215 379215 376213 368209 366206 362203 355198
354195 356191 365190 367187 364183 354181 350180 348178
344169 342166 339167 332169 329172 329175 332183 334192
335200 338208 344215 359223 373232 379237 385243 392248
401252 410253 417252 426251 432249 435243 435237 441234
447230 451226
0.50 422246 422241 419237 414232 409226 404228 400226 394226
389223 385223 384226 384231 387235 390239 397245 402247
408247 414247 422246
0.50 359213 359206 354201 352198 351193 350186 346180 344173
342170 340171 335177 337184 338194 339201 342207 347211
355214 359213
1.00 353204 351203 350200 349198 349196 347193 347192 346189
345187 343188 342192 342195 343199 344202 345205 348205
351206 353204
1.50 346199 347196 346196 346199 346199
24HR QP VT 07/12Z
0.01 535220 536216 537211 538200 538196 536192 533188 531184
528176 527171 524167 518155 514146 512140 510136 507132
501128 496126 492123 489120 485114 483110 482102 484093
482085 479085 475089 470090 468089 462083 460077 460068
461064 459060 455058 449059 446061 438065 435068 437073
444083 446087 442090 437091 432089 430086 427084 424086
420098 418098 417094 418085 420075 420068 418061 412057
407054 401053 381061 378063 375063 371061 366064 367068
370071 370076 371083 373087 381094 386097 389100 389103
386105 380109 372115 363118 356116 351114 348111 346107
344102 342098 339098 338102 336110 335122 333136 327141
324143 321148 317157 313167 312176 315184 320191 326198
331206 336213 343219 357233 363239 366242 371244 382248
387250 391253 401257 406258 412258 429256 446253 452252
456253 468256 476255 486253 495251 506252 515252 517247
520240 522231 527225 532223 535220
0.01 491888 491874 490867 488861 485853 480844 475835 471828
466822 462818 457819 454823 450829 446844 446851 447857
451864 456874 458882 458886 460889 462894 465902 468911
472917 477919 480919 484917 488915 492910 492901 491888
0.01 490193 483187 477181 467175 463169 461165 459165 457168
464174 465179 464183 461186 454197 453201 456206 462204
465204 475201 484198 490193
0.01 444763 444758 442755 440753 438754 435756 434760 434761
433765 434768 437771 440773 443770 443767 444764 444763
0.01 463136 466132 463129 461127 460126 459127 458131 459135
460135 463136 463136
0.01 435201 436197 435193 434190 433188 435186 436185 436181
435181 435176 433175 432176 431180 432184 431188 429191
428192 427195 428197 429199 430200 433201 435201
0.01 419197 419194 419193 417190 414189 411189 408189 407190
407194 407195 410199 413200 416200 419198 419197
0.01 256800 255799 253801 250802 248803 247804 246806 245808
244810 244811 243814 242815 242818 242821 245823 248821
248819 249817 251815 251814 253811 253810 254807 255807
256803 256802 256800
0.25 464221 463217 456217 452218 449217 442216 435217 430219
426223 425227 427231 426235 423235 411237 404235 401237
400234 398227 397223 401217 402213 400208 396202 392198
387191 385186 384183 386182 392180 397175 399170 400160
401155 401151 397145 393142 387141 381138 379130 378127
376124 369125 365129 364131 364136 367140 369146 369152
364156 359160 360164 358166 355170 352173 350172 348168
345164 339162 326162 321164 320173 321178 324184 330194
337204 345213 365228 374235 380237 386238 396242 402240
409243 417245 421247 424247 435244 446240 453239 458238
456227 464221
0.25 444113 445109 444106 441105 438106 435106 432107 430108
432110 435110 438109 441111 443113 444113
0.25 415118 415114 414114 412113 409111 408110 406109 403108
400109 399109 397111 395113 396117 397117 400118 402117
403117 406117 407118 408118 411119 414118 415118
0.50 390209 390204 389202 385197 376188 368180 362178 356180
354185 356189 359192 369200 370202 369206 365207 359206
354202 352197 351190 349185 346180 345173 343167 341165
338165 331164 325165 323171 324177 327182 339201 342205
348210 352211 358216 362219 369222 371223 375218 384214
390209
1.00 370190 368187 367186 365185 363185 365188 365189 367190
370190 370190
1.00 345192 346189 345186 344185 344182 344178 344175 344173
343171 341169 338169 336169 334170 333171 331173 332176
334180 336184 337184 339188 341191 344194 345192
24HR QP VT 08/12Z
0.01 532735 529722 527718 523716 509712 510702 510693 509675
508665 507659 505657 498651 494646 490645 486644 480644
473646 471649 465658 461666 454683 452691 451699 450707
448715 445721 442729 431744 416771 413776 409783 398797
391810 389817 389820 391822 395821 401819 406815 411807
414800 417799 417802 418809 419815 420819 424819 428817
437831 443835 444842 444847 443854 442859 444863 449867
452873 456883 458887 461890 465894 468901 470904 473914
475920 478924 482924 488921 491911 492901 493878 491867
490855 491852 493851 497849 501842 510828 522811 528796
530789 531779 532773 532766 534755 533749 533741 532735
0.01 517278 519269 520260 518254 516248 511237 509233 503230
481223 460222 450223 441227 436235 434242 436245 438246
444247 448245 456244 462246 468248 476254 480257 484262
491269 503289 508292 513288 517278
0.01 486138 486135 484132 482129 476124 470124 464127 460133
458137 457143 459148 459152 461158 463161 467159 469149
471144 474142 480140 486138
0.01 464102 462097 460093 458089 457080 456076 452072 447070
442072 444078 447083 449089 448097 448101 449105 451109
455110 459110 464106 464102
0.01 425119 425114 423110 420104 418094 418088 422071 422067
421064 418060 413055 408052 398051 394051 391053 369048
362048 358049 356051 344058 335065 330068 324069 317071
312072 302073 294072 283071 276071 272075 270080 270084
271088 272095 275102 279113 281119 282124 282133 283135
287135 293132 299136 306139 310142 312149 309151 306152
303155 301163 303171 305173 309175 314177 318181 325190
331201 338212 343216 348220 352223 359224 364223 371223
375221 376218 379216 384216 391209 403207 407203 408198
408193 409188 412180 415177 416175 415168 420154 420143
421131 423123 425119
0.25 482698 481694 478693 475695 474699 473701 472705 472706
473707 476708 477708 479706 480704 481702 482698
0.25 393143 391135 391128 391125 390116 384112 379112 373116
365116 357115 354114 351111 348105 343092 341088 338086
336085 333087 331090 327095 321097 315099 311098 309096
304092 299091 293093 292096 293099 298113 299119 300124
304124 308125 311127 314130 319137 323142 327145 335149
339153 344159 348163 356166 364167 369168 374168 379164
382159 389150 393143
0.25 344199 345196 344192 344188 343181 344175 345167 345163
336164 325162 320161 315164 316167 319171 324174 330179
336187 341194 344199
0.50 383127 383122 379121 374125 368125 362122 351115 343105
339104 334105 329108 328120 326129 328135 330139 333142
338146 344150 349152 358155 365157 370156 373154 378149
380140 381130 383127
1.00 360142 358137 355134 353131 351124 351120 348121 345118
343115 340114 338116 340123 340126 340133 341137 344141
349144 355145 360142
$$
