FXUS63 KGLD 311549
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
849 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A TRIANGULAR WEDGE FROM THE 
NEBRASKA/KANSAS STATE LINE TO HOXIE TO LEOTI AND THEN OVER TO 
HIGHWAY 59 IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.  THIS ADVISORY IS VALID UNTIL 
18 UTC.

COLD AIR AND DAMP UPSLOPE IS PRODUCING DENSE FREEZING FOG...WITH 
SURFACES RAPIDLY DEVELOPING A NICE LAYER OF HOAR FROST AT THE 
OFFICE.  QUICK CALLS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE NEAR ZERO TO 1/2 MILE 
VISIBILITY IN LOCALES NOT UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OTHER CONCERN IS TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST.  WITH UPSLOPE AND MORE MID 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...EASTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT INTO 
THE SUN AND WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20F FOR A HIGH.

ENTWISTLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

237 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND WILL DETERMINE THE AREAS AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW RECEIVED
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.

A COMBINATION OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED. THE ETA IS THE DRYER
OF THE MODELS AS IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS LESS DEEP WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THAN THE GFS.  HOWEVER...THE
GFS TENDS TO DEVELOP TOO MUCH NEAR SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW AND PR0DUCES
TOO EXTENSIVE SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT ARE UNREALISTICALLY HIGH.  PREFER THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE GFS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS THAT ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ETA.  THE ETA ALSO PRODUCES A GREATER RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS PREFERRED TODAY. END RESULT IS
THAT THE ETA IS PREFERRED FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH A BLEND TOWARDS A
TONED DOWN VERSION OF THE GFS.

AM GOING WITH SNOW BEGINNING AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.  HAVE GONE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE TENTHS IN THE
NORTHWEST TO ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AND COOL
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND
EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE TRI-STATE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

LOCKHART

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST OF A OBERLIN TO HOXIE TO LEOTI LINE 
     UNTIL 11 AM MST (NOON CST).
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 59 UNTIL 11 AM.
NE...NONE.

&&


$$