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fxus64 kshv 102147
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
347 pm cst tue feb 10 2009
. discussion...
update to include lake wind advisory 1st period.
&&
. prev discussion... /issued 230 pm cst tue feb 10 2009/
discussion...
water vapor imagery shows upper trough over nw nm ... while closer to
home ... sfc analysis indicated a dryline sharpening up from
kdrt - kcsm. ahead of this feature ... southeasterly return flow has
been increasing throughout texas and la in response to a deepening
sfc trough over se co. patt2 profiler already shows a 40kt
llj ... and this is fcst to translate east and increase to 65+kts by
06z wednesday. east of the dryline ... differential heating/partly
cloudy skies have allowed mu capes to increase to near
2000j/kg ... w/area radars already showing rapid developing supercells
in sw/central ok. kshv 18z sounding shows increasing
destabilization and deep layer shear ... w/gfs increasingly
helicities/shear over ne texas by 06z wednesday ahead of the
dryline/squall line ... expected into western zones after 06z.
thus ... environment will be favorable for supercells later this
afternoon/evening as large - scale ascent increases ... and an isolated
tornado or two can/t be ruled out ... along w/damaging winds. in
addition ... w/wet - bulb zeroes in the 8kft range ... hail will also be a
concern. squall line should clear kmlu around sunrise.
otherwise ... pattern into late week remains sw flow aloft ... w/gfs
bringing another trough to the north ... and a cold front/dryline thru
the four - state area friday ... but lack of moisture return should
confine convection to the se zones. gfs then brings another trough
further south monday afternoon ... for potentially the next big event.
for temps ... guidance matches up relatively well w/forecast
soundings/temp progs ... and thus we didn/t stray too far from it.
aviation...
vcts will be the norm for our western taf sites ... out ahead of an
approaching front that will produce a squall line that will enter
our area this evening. each taf site will eventually have a taste of
the squall line over the late evening to early morning hours. low
ceilings ... heavy rain ... and strong thunderstorms will affect all
sites. /23/
&&
. preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 50 71 45 69 54 / 80 0 0 0 10
mlu 57 71 44 67 52 / 80 20 0 0 10
deq 52 69 37 68 44 / 80 0 0 0 0
txk 50 69 44 67 51 / 90 0 0 0 10
eld 51 69 40 68 48 / 80 0 0 0 10
tyr 50 72 46 71 53 / 80 0 0 0 0
ggg 50 71 45 70 52 / 80 0 0 0 0
lfk 52 74 45 75 54 / 80 0 0 0 0
&&
. shv watches/warnings/advisories...
ar ... lake wind advisory until 6 am cst wednesday for the following
zones: arz060 - 061 - 070>073.
la ... lake wind advisory until 6 am cst wednesday for the following
zones: laz001>006 - 010>014 - 017.
ok ... none.
tx ... lake wind advisory until 6 am cst wednesday for the following
zones: txz096 - 097 - 108>112 - 124>126 - 136>138 - 149>153 - 165>167.
&&
$$
23/44