SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 905 AM MST THU JUN 1 2000 SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SONORA WILL CROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH VERY LITTLE RAIN AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...SPELLING A RETURN TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. DISCUSSION...AS WE'VE EXPECTED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, TODAY SHOULD BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR TSTMS. UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO SHUNT NE ACROSS SONORA TOWARD THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDS FROM ORGAN PIPE TO AROUND WINDOW ROCK. THERE'S ALSO ANOTHER WAVE ZIPPING E TOWARD THE BAJA SPUR. EITHER OF THESE COULD BE THE TRIGGER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC CENTERS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE JUST E OF DOUGLAS IN 21-00Z TIME FRAME AS THETA-E RIDGE MAKES A RUN NORTH ACROSS COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. THE ETA IS EVEN MORE EMPHATIC BY BRINGING THE Q-VECTOR BULLSEYE AND BEST UPWARD MOTION TO BETWEEN DOUGLAS AND TUCSON BY 00Z. 12Z KTUS SOUNDING LOOKS MORE LIKE A LOW-GRADE MONSOON THAN JUNE 1ST WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 600 J/KG ASSUMING A HIGH OF 98 AND A DEWPOINT OF 40. K INDEX OF 24, LIFTED INDEX OF -4, AND PRECIP WATER OF 0.88 ARE ALL HEALTHY. THE ONLY MINUS WE HAVE IS DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE THREAT AREA. HOWEVER, THOSE APPEAR TO BE THINNING. HAVE DECIDED TO SWITCH TO AREAL TERMS AND DRY THUNDERSTORM WORDING OVER COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ, AND HOLD EVERYONE ELSE AT SLIGHT CHANCE. IF WE START SEEING TOWERING CU GO UP OUT OUR WINDOW, WE'LL DO A QUICK UPDATE FURTHER NW. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AGAIN AND SOME CLOUDS, I WONDER IF OUR FORECAST TEMPS ARE A TAD HIGH. HOWEVER, 700MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AND WE ARE UNDER VERY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. WE'LL HOLD AS-IS FOR NOW. PYTLAK .TWC...NONE. az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 927 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000 PROBLEM TNGT IS NARROW LN OF ELEVATED CONVECTION REDVLPG WELL BNHD SFC FNT. INITIALLY THOUGHT THAT PRES RISES BHND FNT WHERE SGFNT ENOUGH TO PUSH IT WELL THRU FA TNGT...HWVR RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN DYNAMIC SURGE THRU GTLKS WITH LTL CHG FM IA FARTHER S. SRN EDGE OF FNT HAS BASICALLY HUNG UP AND MAY PRODUCE HVY RAINS JUST S OF FA ACRS KS/MO. 00Z KOAX SOUNDING HAS RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABV 750MB AND 00Z RUC SHOWS WEAK/MOD MID LVL QG AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INTO EARLY MRNG HRS. HAVE UPDATED TO HOLD PCPN TIL MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY EVEN HAVE TO EXTEND INTO EARLY MRNG HRS. WL WAIT FOR NOW AND SEE HOW TRENDS PROGRESS. 02Z PROFILERS SHOW H85 FNT INVOF CURRENT CONVECTION...AND 00Z RUC ONLY BRINGS FNT TO KMKC AREA BY 12Z. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 903 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2000 SYNOPSIS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD DOWNEAST MAINE DURING FRIDAY. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN TO NORTHERN AREAS AND SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE MARITIMES EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY W/MINS & WINDS FOR THE UPDATE. WILL STAY THE COURSE ON THIS UPDATE W/INCG CLDS OVNGT. SOME CLDS (MAINLY CI) MOVG ACRS SRN ME. A FEW WISPS OF CI ACRS NRN/CNTL AREAS. THICKER CLDS STL WELL BK W ACRS ONTARIO/OTTAWA PROVS. WILL SEE SKY CONDS BECMG BKN-OVC BY 12Z FRI. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO 45-50 ZNS1>4. 21Z RUC/MEOS-ETA SNDGS SHOWED WARMER MINS OVNGT THAN WHAT 12Z GUID WAS SHOWING. BASED ON WHAT THE AREA MTRS WERE SHOWING LAST 3 HRS...WILL PUSH MINS UP A NOTCH. COASTAL WATERS: NOT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABT. WILL DO SOME COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO ADHERE TO CRNT CONDS. .CAR...NONE. JOE me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1021 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2000 UPDATE CONCERNS RENEGADE SHWRS/TS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. 23:45Z VIS IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER WI AND UPR MI DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN MN AND MCS IN SOUTHERN WI. WV IMAGERY INDICATES DRY SLOT HAS MADE IT INTO WRN UPR MI....WHICH HAS KEPT THE FAR WESTERN CNTYS OUT OF MOST OF THE PRECIP. CENTRAL AND ERN UPR HAVE HAD SHWRS/TS DUE TO BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS...850 MB CONVERGENCE AND 300-200 MB DIVERGENCE. THESE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST AS THE 250 MB JET SAGS SOUTH...REACHING UPR MI BY 12Z...ACCORDING TO THE 00Z RUC. WILL FOLLOW RUC FOR UPDATE SINCE IT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SHWRS/TS THIS EVENING. AS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1009 MB LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI. THIS LOW WILL HEAD NE AND DEEPEN TO 1004 MB...REACHING 50 MILES SOUTH OF WAWA BY 09Z. DWPTS OVR EASTERN UPR ARE IN THE LOW 50S AND IN THE UPR 40S OVR WESTERN UPR. DWPTS STAY IN THE UPR 40S OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES ALL THE WAY BACK TO NORTHERN MN. RUC...AGAIN REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS...ONLY DROPS THE DWPTS IN THE 47 TO 52 RANGE. WITH FOG ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WEST...WOULD EXPECT IT TO FORM ACROSS THE REST OF UPR MI. LOOKS LIKE DRIZZLE WILL ALSO HANG AROUND WITH WEAK LIFT AND THIS PRESENT MOISTURE. EVEN WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING FRI MORNING...BELIEVE PRESENT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DROPPING TO THE DEWPTS WILL KEEP FOG AROUND. ALHTOUGH THE WIND WILL KEEP THE FOG FROM GETTING TOO DENSE. TO SUM UP FOR THE UPDATE...WILL FRESHEN UP WORDING BASED ON RADAR DATA FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES...FOG AND DRIZZLE IN. LOWS LOOK GOOD...BUT WILL BUMP UP FOR FAR EAST SINCE THE CAA DOES NOT GET THERE UNTIL MORNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CNTYS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATE SINCE CAA IS TAKING PLACE...BEING IN THE DRY SLOT...AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PROFILE IS IN PLACE (850 MB TEMP = 1 C, LAKE TEMP = 4 C). .MQT...NONE. AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 732 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2000 QUICK UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA (WHICH CAME IN AT 6:45 PM EDT). SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN UPR DUE TO BLOW OFF FROM MCS IN SOUTHERN WI. 22Z RUC DID SHOW SOME GOOD CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB ALSO. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS DID PRODUCE SOME THUNDER RIGHT NEXT TO THE OFFICE. AS THIS STORM HEADED QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE...THE LIGHTNING ENDED. A FEW OTHER CELLS HAVE PRODUCED LIGHTNING NEAR IMT. UPDATED THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. FOR SHOWERS...AND A POSSIBLE TS IN IRON/DICKINSON CNTYS. LEFT GOGEBIC/ONT CNTYS ALONE BECAUSE THE DRY SLOT AND SFC LOW IS MOVING OVER THEM. EVEN RADAR NOW SHOWS SHOWERS EXITING HOUGHTON CNTY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST. .MQT...NONE. AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 325 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2000 CONVECTIVE BAND FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO CAPE FIELD THAT IS SPORTING AN IMPRESSIVE 3600 J/GM MAX NEAR KDBQ. ALL THE ACTION APPEARS COMFORTABLY SOUTH AND EAST OF MPX CWA AND ETA/RUC TREND INDICATES THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE INTO EARLY EVENING. DRY AIR SURGES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL BREAK UP THE OVERCAST. MOS TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS CONSIDERING MOVEMENT OF COLD HIGH OFF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO MINNESOTA LATE ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP ACROSS MINNESOTA TO THE EAST OF A LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. .MSP...NONE WET mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 834 PM MDT THU JUN 1 2000 MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE LOW CLOUD AREA OVER FAR NWRN SD AND PLACES NORTH OF THERE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED IT SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST. RUC PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND CROSS-SECTIONS SUPPORT THIS TREND. AS A RESULT...WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING OVER FAR NWRN SD...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE ...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BY MORNING. .UNR...NONE. BUNKERS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 955 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000 WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA CAUSING FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM THE LUBBOCK AREA NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR A LINE FROM P28 TO GAG TO BGD TO RTN. LATEST RUC MODEL KEEPS VORTICITY AXIS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REGION...00Z MAF SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 1.5 INCHES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. .LBB...NONE. TINSLEY tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 922 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000 OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM EXITING EXTREME NORTHEAST LEA COUNTY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING PINE SPRINGS AND CANDELARIA...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE WAKE OF A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE DERIVED LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -5 OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER ONE INCH SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z RUC ALSO SHOWS A DIFFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. I PLAN TO UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ELSEWHERE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA...FEEL THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB THETA E VALUES OF 340-345K IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. PV tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2000 MID LVL DISTURBANCE/MCS REMNANT DROPPING SE ACRS MID ATLC REGION TODAY. VIS LOOP SHOWS BKN/OVC CLD CVR W OF I95 CORRIDOR POISED TO CROSS INTO AKQ FA. LEADING EDGE OF CLDS APPEARS TO BE ERODING BUT SHUD BE ENUF DEBRIS FOR PTSUNNY SKY ALL BUT FAR SE FA THIS AFTN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHWRS MOVG SE THRU NRN VA ATTM. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LTST MDL DATA RUNS (12Z RUC/06Z MESOETA)...WL ADD LOW CHC POPS (30%) ACRS NRN NECK/LWR MD AND SLT CHC POPS (20%) FOR MIDDLE PENINSULA/VA ERN SHORE THIS AFTN. WEAK UPR TROF CONTG TO SHEAR OUT THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY PER SFC HEATING CUD BE ENUF TO REFIRE CNVTN. LL THICKNESS OFF AREA MORN UA GIVES HIGHS IN THE U80S THIS AFTN. EVEN WITH EXPECTED THICKER CLD CVR...LTL/NO TEMP ADJUSTMENT NEEDED THIS UPDATE. CWF...SW/S WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THIS AFTN. FYI...RCRD HI TEMPS FRI 6/2 RIC 98 SET 1951 ORF 97 SET 1918 SBY 98 SET 1918 .AKQ...NONE. CULLEN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 300 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000 FCST FOCUS ON SVR WX/FLOODING THREAT IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...SVR WX INDICIES CONT TO DESTABLIZE...REVEALING VERY UNSTABLE AMS OVR CWA. PROGRESSIVE CD FNT TO SWEEP THRU AREA ERLY TNGT. RUC/NGM PROGS HOLD BACK A BIT ON FNTL PASSAGE...BUT ESSENTIALLY EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN AFT 06Z. WITH RIVERS THAT ARE STILL BLO FLOOD STAGE BUT RISING...WILL CONTINUE FFA INTO EARLY TNGT AS EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN TO ACCOMPANY STRONGEST STORMS. IN THE FAR TERM...WX NIL AS COOL HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO RGN. GUID TEMPS LOOK OK ATTM. .UWNMS...SIMILAR TO TREND OF PROGS...BUT CONCENTRATES BEST UVV ACRS NRN WI. .MKX...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA EARLY TNGT...WI ZNS 46..47..51..52..56>60..62>72. $$ ZAJDEL wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 225 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2000 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHERE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED. AT 500 MB A SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING OUT OF CANADA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ANCHORED OVER THE SE US. 00Z/FRI MODEL RUNS SHOW MODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS IS CONTRAST TO 00Z/THU RUN WHICH THE ETA AND NGM SHOWED FROPA THIS MORNING AND THE AVN WAS HINTING AT AN AFTERNOON FROPA.THE 00Z RUN HAS THE ETA AND NGM AGREE ON FROPA AT PAH AROUND 18Z WITH THE AVN STILL SLIGHTLY LATER. THE LATEST RUC RUN ALSO AGREES WITH THE AVN IN FRONTAL POSITIONING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM EVV TO PAH AROUND 20Z TODAY. CURRENT SPEED OF FRONT WAS AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH. THIS WOULD HAVE THE BOUNDARY OVERTAKING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 20Z. THE MODELS WERE A BIT CONTRASTING ON AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIP THAT MIGHT FALL. THE AVN IS...AS USUAL... ADVERTISING MORE PRECIP THAN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ETA. ALL THIS CONSIDERED WILL LEAN TOWARD TIMING OF AVN WITH MOISTURE PROFILE RESEMBLING THE ETA SOLUTION. ONE PARAMETER THE MODELS WERE AGREEING ON IS MOST PRECIP BEING POST FRONTAL. THEREFORE...WILL USE CHC WORDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY WITH MAINLY AFTN/EVENG WORDING FOR KY. FAN AND FWC IN EXACT AGREEMENT ON HIGHS TODAY ...88... FOR BOTH EVV AND PAH. THIS SEEMS RSNBL FOR KY BUT WITH CLOUD COVER COMING IN WILL LIKELY COOL THE NORTH A LITTLE MORE. IN THE LATER PERIODS FWC COOLS US DOWN A GREAT DEAL. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER FAN NUMBERS IN THE LATER PERIODS. .PAH...NONE. HOOPER ky FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 850 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000 FORECAST CHALLENG CONCERNS SHRA/CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS. WDLY SCT -SHRA CONTINUES OVER FA IN CYCLONIC FLOW IN VCNTY OF INVERTED TROUGH...H8 THETA-E RIDGE AND IN ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST CONVERGENCE. EASTWARD SHIFT OF UPPER SUPPORT AND SFC BOUNDARY WITH PARENT LOW...LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF SHRA. WILL GENERALLY CONFINE ADDNL PCPN MENTION TO NW MN. CLOUD FIELD LOOKING FAIRLY SOLID VS CELLULAR FROM VIS LOOP SO MAY HANG AROUND LONGER AS RUC SLOW TO DRY OUT COLUMN. BEST CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVR NW AND SE FA WITH MORE CELLULAR CLOUD FIELD. DRIEST LOW LEVEL AIR REACHES NW COUNTIES WITH TD'S DROPPING INTO MID 30S WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN LOOKING UPSTREAM AT METARS. WITH THIS IN MIND IF CLEARING CONTINUES TEMPS COULD DROP HOWEVER MIXING MAY HELP HOLD TEMPS UP SOME. WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK HOWEVER ATTM AM NOT PLANNING ANY BIG TEMP CHANGES. .FGF...NONE VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 957 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2000 AFTER CHECK WITH 12Z RUC AND RAOBS...CWF WINDS TO BE SHAVED A BIT. LOWER LEVEL WINDS LIGHT E...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...STEERING WINDS ALOFT WISHY-WASHY AT BEST SO WHEN SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AFTER -NOON ON BOTH COASTS TODAY...TSTMS TRAJECTORY WILL BE MORE RANDOM THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH A SLIGHT LEAN TO INTERIOR AND SW AS ALREADY IN ZONES TO EXPECTED. NO CHANGES TO ZFP PACKAGE. .MIA...NONE. fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 950 AM EST FRI JUN 2 2000 WL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS NW CWA AND BUMP TEMPS SERN ZNS. COLD FNT ALONG TOL-DECATUR IN-KOKOMO LN ATTM. SLIGHTLY MODIFIED 80/68 RUC SNDG NR AOH V18Z WITH CAPE TO 1.4 KJ/KG WL CONT CHC POPS FOR TSRA/SHRA THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS. .IWX...NONE PBM in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1025 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2000 THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM IS SKY CONDITION. 12Z ETA SHOWS A SLUG OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE 925 MB MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CERTAINLY DEPICTS WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY (RAPID STRATOCU AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT). SO ALREADY UPDATED FOR MORE CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INDICATE DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN CWA. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS. LONGER TERM...12Z ETA SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS CWA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. .MSP...NONE RJN mn COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2000 COMPETING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. WILL INCLUDE <20 POP FOR Z232>234 AND Z244>247 WHERE ENHANCED CU FIELD IS PRESENT. THIS IS ALSO WHERE MESOETA/RUC PLACE WEAKLY FAVORABLE DIV Q/Q VCTR CONVG FIELDS. OTW FCST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY COSMETIC CHGS. MARINE: FCST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY COSMETIC CHGS. .CRP...NONE. 85/BB tx