FXUS62 KTAE 211353
AFDTLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
0930 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

.OVERVIEW...WET BUT NOT QUITE AS WET AS YESTERDAY

.SHORT TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ON TRACK WITH WHAT WE SEE THIS 
MORNING.  OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LESS THAN SAME TIME 
YESTERDAY MORNING. PWAT IS STILL NEAR 2 INCHES IN TLH SOUNDING...BUT 
CAPE IS MUCH REDUCED AT 1825 J/KG THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVELS HAVE WARMED 
WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  THE EASTERN SEABOARD 500MB TO SURFACE 
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TEMPORARILY TODAY WHICH WILL HELP 
SHUNT THE GMEX MID/LOWER LEVEL LOW BACK TO THE WEST TOWARDS NEW 
ORLEANS. THIS RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER GMEX 
LOW HAS INCREASED THE SE DEEP LAYER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE TALLAHASEE 
CWA TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.  THIS 
GIVES US A TYPE 6 (MODERATE SE FLOW) SEABREEZE DAY.  ALSO DESPITE 
THE INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN...WKSTA ETA DOESN'T BRING THE 
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO OUR AREA TODAY.  NET RESULT...WE WILL 
SPLIT THE POPS IN FLORIDA WITH 60 PERCENT WEST OF APALACHICOLA RIVER 
AND 40 PERCENT OVER THE BIG BEND. AT THE SAME TIME WSTA ETA DEVELOPS 
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA 
LATER TODAY AS THINGS HEAT UP THERE...SO WILL KEEP POPS THERE IN 60 
PERCENT RANGE. 

MARINE...NO CHANGES.

.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.


$$
LANIER/BLOCK




PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
*****************************************************************

.OVERVIEW...A RATHER WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM...THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE NOW JOINED THE ETA CAMP IN DEVELOPING
A LOW TO MID LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND MOVING
IT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE STUBBORN NGM HAS
A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...GOOD RAIN
CHANCES...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. ON SATURDAY THE ETA
AND GFS QUICKLY BACK THE 1000-700 MB MEAN FLOW TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER EAST
COAST TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP SEA BREEZE-RELATED
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT.

.MARINE...THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF IS FORECAST TO BE VERY
WEAK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 87 72 89 72 / 60 30 50 20
PFN 86 75 88 75 / 70 30 50 20
DHN 87 72 89 72 / 60 20 50 20
ABY 88 72 89 72 / 60 20 50 20
VLD 88 72 89 72 / 60 30 50 20
CTY 86 73 87 73 / 70 30 60 20

.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

$$

FOUNIER