FXUS64 KHUN 191939
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY DAY HERE AT THE HUN AS WE ARE GETTING A POTPOURRI OF 
ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH TRAINING CELLS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...AN 
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND CERTAINLY QUITE A 
BIT OF LIGHTNING. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE NW OF A MEM-MKL-PAH 
LINE...WITH DEWPTS DROPPING TO AROUND 60 BEHIND...VS. MID 60S TO MID 
70S AHEAD. DESPITE ALL THE ACTIVITY...ACTUALLY SOME CLEARING NOTED 
ON THE VIS SATELLITE OVER NRN MS/WRN TN/NWRN AL...WHICH HAS AIDED IN 
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. 19Z TEMPS AND DEWPTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
FOCUS IS OBVIOUSLY ON THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS 
THAT THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN ACROSS THE HUN FA IN THE NEAR 
FUTURE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORCING IN PLACE TO KEEP THINGS POPPING 
OVER NRN MS/WRN TN...AND QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 
HOWEVER AN MCS EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOW PERSISTENT CLOUDCOVER IS  
KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THIS IS PROGGED TO 
CONTINUE THRU THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SO MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HVY 
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER EARLY AM MCS SATURATED THE SOIL. PUTTING A 
FLOOD WATCH OUT NOW MAY NOT BE EFFECTIVE...CONSIDERING ALL THE 
FLOODING THAT EITHER OCCURRED THIS MORNING OR IS CURRENTLY IN 
PROGRESS. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...1ST PD POPS WILL AGAIN BE BASED ON 
RADAR TRENDS AT ISSUANCE...AND PRELIM NUMBERS BELOW ARE UNLIKELY TO 
REMAIN INTACT BY 4PM.

STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE 
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PD AS THE BEST FORCING WEAKENS 
THEN SHIFTS SWD. HOWEVER...CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM 
AGAIN FOR TOMORROW...AS BEST INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA 
AHEAD OF THE MEANDERING COLD FRONT. U/A RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD 
INTO THE AREA...SO SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY QUASH MOST OF THE 
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY THAN ANYTHING 
WE'VE SEEN THUS FAR...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG 
QUICKLY...PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

DEFINITELY TIME TO DRY OUT BY WED NIGHT AS RIDGE DOMINATES WX. ETA 
SHOWS NO WIND SHIFT BUT GFS DOES SHOW A FROPA BY WED NIGHT. RIDGE 
WILL PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY AND 
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THERE 
WASN'T MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT IT GIVEN EVERYTHING IN THE SHORT TERM. 
OVERALL THINKING HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WITH 
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT 
INTO SUN. AM CONCERNED THAT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPS SHIFTING 
FROM RUN TO RUN...BUT THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED ENOUGH TO MAKE MAJOR 
CHANGES. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...WILL NOT MAKE 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO DAYS 4-7.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  77  60  78 /  40  20  10  10 
SHOALS        63  78  59  78 /  40  20  10  10 
CULLMAN       63  78  61  79 /  40  20  10  10 
FAYETTEVILLE  60  77  59  77 /  40  20  10  10 
FT PAYNE      62  77  58  77 /  40  20  10  10 
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$

BCC/27