FXUS63 KAPX 311659
AFDAPN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1158 AM EST WED DEC 31 2003

.SHORT TERM...1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A 
COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. 
WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND JET OVERHEAD. THERE WAS A BURST OF SNOW 
EARLIER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER NEAR WHITEFISH 
POINT...PARADISE AND SAULT STE MARIE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. 
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY 
MAINLY FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AIR IS A BIT COLDER THAN 
PREVIOUSLY MODELED BEHIND THE FRONT (WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM 12Z 
RAOBS OF -13C AT INL...-11 AT MSP AND -8 AT GRB) SO EXPECT NUMEROUS 
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WNW FLOW COUNTIES. 
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES EXPECT 
LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES NEAR WHITEFISH POINT DUE TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE (MEAN 900/700 MB RH ABOUT 60 PERCENT) AND INVERSION HEIGHTS 
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET.

SULLIVAN 

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 411 AM EST WED DEC 31 2003

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT...THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY PULLS AWAY AND WINDS 
DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY. MOISTURE AT 850 MB IS ABOVE 70% AND THE 
TEMPERATURES AT 850 ARE COLDER THAN -10C SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL 
TAPER INTO FLURRIES AS THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST WITH THE SFC LOW. 
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA. 

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY (850 MOISTURE 
BELOW 40%) SO PRECIPITATION STAYS OUT UNTIL AROUND 00Z AS THE SFC 
MOISTURE CATCHES UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 850 TEMPERATURES 
REMAIN BELOW -2C AND THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. THE LIFT WILL OCCUR AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SO KEEP THE 
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS DURING THE DAY AT THE SFC 
AND 850 MB. BOTH MODELS HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AT 850 AND THE ETA IS 
SLOWER AT BRINGING IN MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 LEVELS. BOTH MODELS 
INSIST ON PRINTING OUT PRECIPITATION, PROBABLY BASED ON THE WEAK 
ISENTROPIC LIFT, BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT OF 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. WILL GO MORE 
WITH THE GFS AT THIS TIME AS THE ETA HASN'T SHOWN MUCH IMPROVEMENT 
IN PERFORMANCE AS OF LATE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE 
FORECAST AS THE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ON THE GFS IS ABOVE 70% FROM THE 
SFC TO 500 MB AND THE SFC WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST 
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 850 ARE +3C OR SO IN THE FORECAST AREA, SO 
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN. 

MODEL LOOKS GOOD WITH THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON 
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST 
MONDAY. 

LUTZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     GALE WARNING...TODAY...ALL MARINE ZONES.
     WIND ADVISORY...TODAY...MIZ015>019-021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY...MIZ008.

&&

$$