000 FXUS04 KWBC 100759 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 258 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009 PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 13/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1 ...PACIFIC NW AND NRN/CNTRL CA... ANOTHER IN A NEVER ENDING SERIES OF SHRTWVS AGAIN DROPS SEWD TO A PSN NEAR THE PAC NW COAST BY WED MRNG. MODELS VERY SIMILAR HANDLING THE DIGGING PROCESS AND AS A RESULT THEIR RESPECTIVE QPFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. MSTR WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN GNLY LGT TO MDT PCPN TOTALS DESPITE THE GOOD UPPER LVL FORCING INVOLVED. ...CONCERNING THE EJECTION OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHRTWV TROF... MODELS WHILE DIFFERING WITH MINOR DETAILS AGREE THAT THE SWRN U.S. SHRTWV TROF WILL BE EJECTED RAPIDLY EWD CLOSING OFF AND UPPER LO OVR THE CNTRL U.S. BY WED MRNG. IN ADDITION TO THE PCPN THAT WILL BE GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEMS STG DYNAMIC FORCING AND ITS ASOCTD SFC LOW AND CDFNT...THE OLD FRONTAL BAND TRAILING FM THE THE OH VLY WSWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALSO BE A MECHANISM FOR FOCUSING MSTR CNVGNC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. TNGTS GFS AND YDAS 09/1200 UTC ECMWF ARE IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. THEY AGREE THE AXIS OF PCPN TRAILING WSWWD THRU THE OH VLY AND INTO THE LWR/MID MS VLY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BAND. HOWEVER...THEY DISAGREE ON THE PRIMARY AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN EXPECTED FM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VLY. THE GFS HAS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION AND LOOKING AT ITS MAS FIELD DETAILS SUGGEST IT IS HAVING FEEDBACK ISSUES. TYPICAL CORRECTION MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEEDBACK WOULD PUT THE QPF MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWFS AND OPTED TO LEAN THAT WAY IN THIS REGARD. AT THE SAME TIME..IT APPEARS THE ECMWF MAY BE A LITTLE LAX WITH ITS PCPN EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE UPPER CNTR WHERE STG MID TO UPPER LVL FORCING ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED. LEANED TWDS THE GFS PLACEMENT IN THAT REGARD WHICH HAS SUPPORT FM THE GEM REGIONAL. FINALLY...BROUGHT HEAVIER AMTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY THAN ANY MODEL SUGGESTS AS CNVCTV/MESOSCALE FORCING MAY RESULT IN CNVCTN BULGING OUT EWD ACROSS THAT REGION. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY... MODELS AGREE ON DIMINISHING PCPN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASOCTD WITH THE LIFTING OUT N CNTRL U.S. UPPER LO. THEY ALSO CONTINUE PCPN INVOF NRN MN WHERE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE INVOF THE LIFTING OUT MID LVL CNTR. DAY 2... ...MID/LWR MS VLY TO THE EASTERN U.S.... MDT/HVY RAINS...ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMTS...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MID MS VLY THRU LWR MICH AS A NEG-TILTED MID/UPR LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AFFORDED BY THE COUPLING OF THE UPR JET COMBINED WITH 50+ KTS OF SLY LOW LVL INFLOW WILL ENCOURAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. SHRTWV ENERGY S OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AHEAD OF THE CTR...GENERATING PRONOUNCED H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OH VLY/MID ATL STATES LATE WED INTO EARLY THU WHILE SENDING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS LIFTING WELL TO THE N...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HVY RAINS APPEARS LIMITED. THE GFS...AFTER SUFFERING FROM A POOR INITIALIZATION AND POSSIBLE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ON DAY 1...ACTUALLY MOVES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ON DAY 2. THE HPC FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...OREGON/CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN... THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHRTWVS TO MOVE OFF OF THE CTRL PAC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SEWD INTO WRN OR/NRN CA THIS PERIOD. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY FOCUSED AMTS OF A 0.5 TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN CA COASTAL RANGES INTO THE NRN SIERRA. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVIER AMTS. MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY THRU THE END OF DAY 2 PERIOD AND THEREFORE THE HPC FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. DAY 3... ...NORTHEAST... LGT/MDT AMTS...OF LESS THAN AN INCH...FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS NRN UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENG ARE EXPECTED AS THE H5 LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEP SLY INFLOW AT THIS POINT SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY HVY AMTS. A STRONG WLY FETCH ACROSS THE LWR LAKES WILL BOLSTER THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY LATER IN THE PERIOD. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE NCEP GUIDANCE/ECMWF. ...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... LGT AMTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE WRN CONUS ON DAY 2 WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ...OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA... YET ANOTHER MID/UPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING LGT/MDT AMTS TO THE REGION. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS ONE SIMILARLY. BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT IS THE NAM...WHICH IS A BIT FURTHER TO THE W THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. KORTY/PEREIRA GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 11/12Z 0.01 487689 481674 478670 473662 467655 465653 461650 454648 447647 444647 439649 436658 437667 441679 444686 445692 446698 445703 438725 434725 428727 423731 422737 420741 419746 416757 413768 409774 405777 402778 394776 389782 384790 381801 377810 370829 363845 360851 356857 352861 348863 338866 329866 321868 305875 300877 299880 301885 300890 292894 289898 287904 290911 290915 291920 292924 295927 297930 296934 290947 285954 279961 274966 267971 264974 262977 261980 262983 268986 276987 295004 298003 302004 302008 307008 309006 316001 322995 326992 331991 339990 346996 352999 356001 357006 356016 357023 357027 352027 344028 338031 335033 333038 336045 341048 332048 330046 327045 323043 319045 316050 318055 322064 322069 319072 313078 307081 301084 295088 291096 292102 294106 301114 308118 313119 318118 325118 331117 336118 344119 351121 353120 354116 353109 354106 356106 360108 364110 368107 371104 374103 381100 385097 391096 395097 397092 401086 415076 418072 421074 422079 421088 421091 417094 412094 405096 400105 393109 386116 385120 389120 394121 397124 395127 393131 393135 397132 405130 408129 412126 417125 419127 419131 416136 413138 409146 406149 404152 400154 397159 395163 394170 396175 399178 402180 403183 403186 401190 398193 392193 386190 378188 375187 371190 371196 372198 373205 372209 364210 359212 356215 351222 349229 349234 350239 352242 354245 358247 363246 368245 375243 378242 383244 385247 384253 381268 380282 382286 384291 386294 392296 399295 406293 420285 426283 434282 442282 450281 462281 472285 482290 489294 496298 502301 506300 511296 518278 519269 518257 516249 515241 506215 504206 504203 506198 506193 503186 500179 499176 500170 499163 493160 490153 494147 495142 492136 483128 477125 471127 469132 466133 463131 457130 453131 449133 450138 447142 442141 438136 434131 434128 435125 440122 447123 451121 455117 457109 456100 454094 452091 448089 445090 441092 437091 433090 430088 430084 433081 436081 440076 442072 442069 439063 432055 430048 427045 424049 421053 420056 417054 413049 407045 403042 400038 394025 394020 396016 401002 402996 403988 407963 408958 408953 410947 410941 411934 411929 414922 418908 422892 424880 425867 425857 423849 423841 422831 421825 423822 427821 438822 443822 448823 458831 467838 470843 472848 474859 474865 473872 471878 465893 461903 454917 445944 439969 438978 438988 440000 443007 446014 449019 452023 455026 461031 467034 477040 483041 488044 498047 505048 512047 519045 523040 526034 525022 523006 520997 516990 507983 503978 501972 501956 509926 510916 510908 509898 507886 507876 508870 512858 514846 515837 514829 0.01 514829 513812 510802 504791 497781 491775 483767 476761 470755 467752 467748 466744 467737 472731 476723 480716 485713 488702 487689 0.01 530184 531175 529169 525167 521163 517157 514155 510156 508160 511165 513170 513171 511175 511180 513185 514188 517190 520192 524193 527189 530184 0.01 478194 477190 476189 473187 470187 467187 464189 461190 460190 458194 458198 460202 460203 462204 465204 466204 468202 471201 472201 475198 478195 478194 0.01 483147 480144 477144 475146 477146 480147 483147 483147 0.01 440206 439203 437201 436201 433200 432204 433205 435208 438207 440206 0.25 503271 500259 496248 491237 486233 480230 473228 471225 473220 477217 481218 473214 467213 462214 454217 450219 444219 440219 433220 426226 422228 418229 415226 415222 414217 411215 406213 399205 396202 391200 383195 380195 379198 380205 383211 386214 386217 384219 379221 373217 368218 365221 363225 365228 368230 372230 380228 387235 391238 394244 395250 395254 394257 394263 397267 402267 411266 423267 432265 441264 450262 461260 470260 476262 483266 491273 495277 499279 503271 0.25 505008 504002 500999 496996 491993 488992 482991 476991 473995 470999 472003 471008 475009 479011 484013 490014 495013 501012 505008 0.25 496918 494914 491909 482908 474916 470926 467936 466941 466949 468952 471960 474963 477963 480961 487952 491942 494932 496923 496918 0.25 411798 407796 400797 394800 390804 386810 383815 378826 374839 370851 365861 359871 345888 328904 324909 321914 317923 313934 307945 302955 300959 299966 304977 306985 312985 317982 323982 336980 341980 346982 351985 357987 369982 374982 374986 374994 375997 377996 386988 391978 395964 396958 396953 395948 394939 394932 408879 409872 408863 408858 407848 405834 405825 406818 410807 411801 411798 0.25 402224 401222 398221 395219 392219 389219 389220 389221 392224 393225 394226 397228 399227 400226 402224 0.25 382054 382050 381050 378049 376047 375046 372045 369047 367050 367054 369056 372056 375056 378057 381056 382054 0.25 375072 375068 374065 372062 369063 367065 369067 371068 372069 374072 375072 375072 0.25 338089 338088 337085 335083 333083 331085 332088 332089 335092 338089 338089 0.50 481249 480244 478241 469239 461235 455236 441239 437240 434238 425235 417233 412232 409234 404238 402242 402247 414251 419253 425254 429255 433256 440253 453249 459246 465245 481249 0.50 403866 402857 400851 396843 396833 395826 394818 388818 384822 380829 374846 371855 367864 363872 358879 348893 342900 336905 330912 326918 319933 311949 308957 307963 309968 313977 321976 326977 332976 342974 351978 358979 363978 367976 375971 381964 385958 387953 387945 387935 389924 392915 397898 401888 402880 403866 0.50 400212 399211 397207 394205 392204 389205 388205 389205 391209 391210 393212 396214 399214 400212 1.00 427243 427242 424242 424243 427244 427243 1.00 395884 394878 393876 390876 387878 382882 377882 372881 372877 373870 371868 370870 366876 361888 357894 353897 347902 343906 339912 337917 331928 326938 320950 317953 319958 322962 326968 329971 341968 347968 354968 362968 368965 374954 377947 378940 387913 392900 395884 395884 1.50 388897 387894 388890 381892 378892 373894 366900 360905 355910 350910 346910 344912 342916 338925 330941 328945 328951 329958 331964 335964 340963 345957 351950 353948 356947 360948 362953 365951 367946 368940 369935 372931 378925 386906 388897 2.00 379907 379903 376904 372906 366909 362913 358918 355919 351919 346923 342928 337936 334942 333950 333955 334957 337957 341955 345951 352942 360934 368925 374922 377917 379907 24HR QP VT 12/12Z 0.01 509685 507671 501665 487668 484656 481648 470636 466631 464631 457631 451630 445631 428637 412649 405655 398662 386672 375685 364699 355712 347723 342730 336737 330751 327760 323766 315777 307788 301800 294813 289823 276851 272858 269862 267868 265874 265882 269888 275889 279890 278894 275908 272916 269921 266926 261932 255937 253939 249941 238948 235952 233959 233965 236967 244969 250968 256966 262963 274953 279948 285945 300937 312931 327926 335925 341926 346930 351937 359975 360979 363983 365987 369989 371990 377989 383987 394978 399973 403966 409952 414935 417928 422921 431909 440896 446888 451880 455878 457878 458887 456897 458904 456913 454922 453932 453941 452951 451959 451966 455974 460981 472994 483004 489009 496013 502015 508017 516017 522014 528008 533999 533988 530979 525968 522958 520943 519926 517908 514893 512879 510873 509866 508859 506851 503844 498837 495824 492812 490797 489786 488775 489766 491755 495732 497723 501713 507698 509685 0.01 531185 532180 532173 529166 521157 518152 512149 506146 501143 495140 492137 487131 483127 478124 475122 471123 466124 461120 458119 457117 463116 470115 473113 475109 474104 469101 457098 452093 447092 436093 425089 423091 423097 422100 418102 415100 415098 415092 415079 418068 418062 414057 404051 399053 394057 387067 386074 388079 395086 395090 391095 390100 391104 391108 390112 390116 392119 396122 407126 410128 410133 410138 408142 404144 397143 392139 384138 381135 379129 377124 372127 370141 363149 361157 364162 368173 367176 363176 357177 353180 350182 348186 346185 344187 341195 340202 340210 342215 349224 383256 388268 390273 394278 397282 403286 406287 411287 415285 423278 430268 435262 439259 450255 458248 462243 460236 454231 456227 459223 458219 453215 437212 434210 429200 428195 430189 432185 430180 428179 429175 431173 433169 434165 432162 426159 424153 426149 427151 434163 437168 442172 445174 447178 444186 451192 452193 454190 458185 462182 464175 463173 460172 458168 460164 467170 469172 473173 478172 482174 486173 494175 497175 501176 505182 508188 510192 514193 531185 0.01 505160 505158 499153 497154 494153 491153 493158 496158 499159 502159 505160 505160 0.01 494212 496208 494207 492204 491202 490199 487198 484200 482200 480202 479204 480205 482209 483209 485211 488212 491213 494213 494212 0.01 482855 482850 481846 480846 477846 475848 473850 472852 471855 472859 474860 477861 480860 482855 482855 0.01 437128 440126 441123 439122 433124 431128 431132 434128 437128 437128 0.01 411191 413188 412184 409181 407177 404174 401175 398179 395182 392183 392187 397189 400187 403183 406186 410191 411191 0.01 360195 358194 356193 354194 355195 358196 360195 0.25 482723 476713 473706 467699 462695 455694 448694 439698 434710 431726 431753 426760 424766 422769 419773 414776 407782 402787 396789 389791 381793 376796 368799 361805 351814 342825 330837 325847 323853 323857 325862 327869 332880 334888 334892 335896 336900 340904 347905 353905 361905 365908 368914 368920 368930 368939 370946 374952 381953 385953 390950 395944 401932 408919 412913 416908 426897 436883 441876 445871 455861 459854 463846 468830 472812 475795 477777 479754 480738 482723 0.25 433245 432240 427236 417229 416223 416219 414211 412207 400201 390196 381189 371183 365183 361186 363190 367195 370198 373203 375208 373213 367212 364209 361208 358207 352208 353213 356217 359220 365224 373230 380238 389246 399251 405253 410254 420253 428249 433245 0.50 474743 471734 467725 464722 459719 453720 450725 448738 446746 444752 438763 431775 428781 423787 413794 409799 407806 409815 405819 399824 395830 392834 391839 391854 390861 386866 383872 379878 375880 373873 368871 364871 359874 355876 353879 353883 357887 373882 374899 375916 376928 379934 384935 390931 393925 400913 407906 412902 417899 427889 434878 442868 450860 454854 456848 460834 464819 468806 471792 474776 474759 474743 0.50 421245 422240 420237 414231 412220 405213 401208 397205 392202 379194 372190 370190 372194 383206 389211 395218 398223 394225 391226 388228 386232 389239 398245 405248 412249 417249 420246 421245 0.50 388806 382804 373810 362814 357818 354824 347833 340841 340845 341848 346853 355853 365853 369848 369840 366836 361828 359825 365820 368817 374812 388806 1.00 467757 463751 462751 460754 456762 452769 447774 443782 439788 433795 428801 425808 423816 420823 416829 413837 409852 406860 403866 395880 393887 393895 397898 401898 406897 411894 417888 423883 428876 437854 444847 450847 450843 451834 452824 458809 460801 462792 463783 466775 467767 467757 1.50 426861 425857 420855 418856 414861 412865 409869 407873 405878 404884 403889 408890 413886 415884 419880 423874 424870 425865 426861 24HR QP VT 13/12Z 0.01 484585 478581 472581 466583 459588 454592 451597 442610 439614 437615 429618 422623 414630 401642 387654 374664 360675 350682 346687 340692 331703 324715 311741 308748 307754 303766 298789 296796 295803 295809 295817 293825 293828 294831 298833 304827 307822 309817 312811 314804 317793 318786 321781 327770 330762 334756 350730 353725 360720 371711 377706 383703 397697 410691 416691 423692 429694 431695 432698 432701 431707 428711 422718 419721 418724 417732 416739 415747 415754 414762 413769 413773 410777 405782 397789 393791 387795 383800 382806 386810 390814 397816 400815 402817 407821 412825 417828 428833 433836 435838 436844 433852 432857 433863 437869 442872 448874 454880 457886 456894 455905 457916 461923 464934 468940 475953 479959 483963 494973 504988 509994 515994 517984 519973 519960 520953 522951 523948 523942 518936 511922 509914 507909 506905 503900 501894 498889 497885 488870 486863 486858 486847 486844 487837 488783 492749 492747 494739 494729 497717 500699 504679 505664 505650 504636 502626 502622 0.01 518186 518179 516172 510165 505160 507158 513157 516157 515152 509142 504136 500131 495128 489126 484121 483116 484109 485103 484099 482093 479087 473076 466068 460060 455058 453062 453067 456075 460085 461093 459100 457106 459112 464123 469136 471141 474143 477142 478147 475147 472146 471142 468141 463140 456143 453147 451147 444146 441147 439150 440154 442157 445162 447166 448171 447175 445179 441182 439185 439190 441192 444193 448191 452192 455192 458189 462183 462181 460173 457169 455161 458158 461158 469166 475164 482174 486179 490179 498178 503183 513186 518186 0.01 471281 468271 464263 461257 461252 461250 464248 468245 469243 467237 460231 454230 451230 446229 446227 450223 446217 443216 433216 429217 425218 419221 416216 411212 406211 402208 399204 399199 381189 366179 362177 358177 349181 346183 342188 341196 341208 342212 345217 357229 361232 361235 358240 356248 357253 359258 361261 365263 370264 374262 383270 390274 398275 416271 420269 424269 428268 432269 438270 443273 453282 457285 464289 470285 471281 0.01 448047 449042 448037 444030 437019 433013 429007 424002 422997 421994 421987 421976 420965 418956 415949 411945 404943 397944 396947 395951 395960 393975 392984 389991 382010 378024 377032 383043 386055 385058 378058 370058 364060 363062 363071 367075 369082 369085 367089 370097 374102 380106 379110 374111 368114 361116 352114 348116 347120 349126 352132 360141 359151 361160 365164 370169 377172 381174 382176 385182 390186 394186 397182 400175 400169 399164 401159 407156 409152 409146 409137 405132 397128 399126 405125 414123 417119 421111 430104 432102 433097 430090 425086 419088 417081 424083 427078 439076 438064 437060 439057 444056 448047 0.01 400223 397219 393214 391212 386208 383205 379203 375201 369201 364199 361195 356191 353194 353197 356201 362207 368215 371219 375221 377219 384219 389220 394223 400223 0.25 491638 487623 484617 481612 477610 474610 471611 468612 462616 454624 448629 442636 432648 431651 430654 430657 437666 443672 448677 450680 452691 453702 452712 449718 448724 451730 451734 449736 443741 438745 434750 431754 430762 428770 423779 417786 415791 413797 415803 419806 423806 427804 432800 434796 436790 436785 435774 435767 437763 439759 444755 454755 462754 467747 473738 480726 484717 487708 490697 492684 493671 493661 493649 491638 0.25 432253 433248 432245 427239 416234 409226 399230 395230 388228 381227 376229 372233 371236 370241 374245 378248 390250 401256 406256 412257 419257 424256 429255 432253 0.25 407110 407106 406105 406106 404110 406112 407110 0.25 401076 402072 401071 398071 397072 395076 398078 401076 401076 0.25 393079 395076 392074 391072 389071 389072 389076 391079 392080 393079 0.50 482642 479636 473631 469633 463639 459644 458648 455652 452657 453662 456666 462676 463694 463700 464705 467710 470713 474712 477709 480703 481694 481679 481664 483647 482642 0.50 431787 430784 428783 425784 423787 422788 421792 420793 421797 422797 425795 427793 430790 431787 0.50 421249 420248 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