[Printable]
000
FXUS04 KWBC 062157
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
456 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/0000 UTC THRU FEB 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
18Z UPDATE...
NOT SURE ANY OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING VORT AND ASSOCD PCPN ALONG
THE CNTL CA COAST VERY WELL ATTM. VORT HAS SLOWED LAST FEW HRS
ALONG THE COAST AND SUSPECT INTERACTION WITH VORT TO ITS NW OFF
THE NRN CA COAST WILL CAUSE IT TO SLOW FURTHER AS IT MOVES JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO KEEP THINGS A LITTLE WETTER ACRS
SOME OF THE CTNL VALLEY AREAS DURING THE FIRST PD THEN SHOULD SEE
EMPHASIS SHIFT SWD ACRS SRN CA WITH APCHG JET MAX/VORT. INCREASED
AMOUNTS VERY SLIGHTLY ACRS SOME OF THE SRN CA MTNS WITH INCREASING
SLY UPSLOPE CONDS LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. ALSO LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS ARE GENLY SLOWER IN KICKING MAIN PCPN BAND EWD ON SAT..SO
ADJUSTED SLIGHT. ELSEWHERE..NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.
CA INTO THE GTBASIN...SWRN U.S...
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE RE-AMPLIFICATION TO THE
MEAN CLOSED LOW OFF THE CNTRL TO SRN CA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL NERN PAC HT FALLS DIGGING SEWD. AS
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE SRN CA COAST...THE LOW
LEVEL SWLY TO SLY FLOW WL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT ACRS SRN CA AND INTO THE SWRN U.S. PW VALUES AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT CLOSED LOW ARE NOT VERY ANOMALOUS...APPROX 1-1.5 STD
ABOVE THE MEAN FCST ACRS SRN CA AND INTO THE SW. LATEST WV
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS CLOSED LOW WL NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ON ITS SERN SIDE. THIS SHOULD KEEP
PCPN AMTS DURG DAY 1 FROM BEING VERY HEAVY..ALTHOUGH AMTS OF 1"+
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE SRN CA COAST
RANGES.
INLAND...THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFS ON HOW FAST PCPN PUSHES EWD.
THE NAM...GFS...CMC GEM AND SREF MEAN HAVE THEIR RESPECTIVE QPF
AXES FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE LATEST ECMWF (0000 UTC) FROM
CNTRL TO SRN NV/WRN UT...SWD INTO FAR ERN CA AND WRN AZ. AT THE
MOMENT...DAY 1 QPF WENT WITH THE FASTER EWD PUSH..DEPICTING
.25-.50"+ AREAL AVG AMTS IN THIS AXIS.
PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
MUCH WEAKER NRN STREAM HT FALLS WL PUSH ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE
OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS WL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT PCPN AMTS ACRS THESE
REGIONS....WITH THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IN AGRMNT ON
THIS SCENARIO.
NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY/GTLKS...
THE LEAD AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE MEAN WRN TROF
WL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD FROM INVOF THE NRN PLAINS..ACRS THE UPR MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE GTLKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THESE HT FALLS AND THE HT FALLS MOVG EWD OUT OF THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT PCPN AMTS FROM
THE NRN PLAINS...UPR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GTLKS. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAD THE BROADEST AREA OF LIGHT PCPN..WITH A LARGER
OVERAGE OF .10"+ AMTS THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
SREF GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORT LIGHTER AMTS AND LESSER COVERAGE.
AT THE MOMENT DAY 1 QPF WENT TOWARD THE LATTER SOLNS.
FAR SRN FL...
LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH MOVG OFF THE SERN
COAST WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACRS FAR SRN FL DAY 1.
AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DAY 2 ...
...WESTERN U.S....
ON DAY 2...A DEEP CLOSED MID/UPR LVL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL JET
CROSSES AZ INTO NM AND NORTH INTO NM/CO...WITH EMBEDDED UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA. DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CTR WILL PRODUCE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THESE STATES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOGOLLON RIM/SAN JUANS/SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGES FOSTER WIDESPREAD VALLEY SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOWS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...SO A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/SREFMEAN WAS USED FOR
MANUAL QPF.
DAY 3...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL US...
ON DAY 3...THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD AS A NEG-TILTED
SHRTWV FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE CTRL PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW
ANOMALOUS LOW LVL MOISTURE FLUXES EXTENDING NWD THRU THE PLAINS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LEADS TO MODEL FCST BANDS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A BAND OF BEST LIFTED
INDICES BELOW ZERO AND ELEVATED CAPE SUPPORTING EMBEDDED THUNDER
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MANUAL PROGS BLENDED
CONTINUITY WITH THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/SREFMEAN/CANADIAN GLOBAL. THE
NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN WY/EASTERN MT DUE TO A SECONDARY CENTER OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THIS PORTION OF ITS QPF FCST WAS
MINIMIZED.
MEANWHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM...THE NEXT DEEP LAYER SHRTWV IS
FORECAST TO DIG S ALONG THE W COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
SUPPORTS PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE OR/CA COASTS AND MOVING
INLAND. THE MODELS FCST UPSLOPE FLOW COMING INTO THE SIERRAS
WITHIN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE COUPLET...SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE NAM FCST THE HEIGHT FALLS TO BE BE
GREATER OFF THE WEST COAST...SO ITS HIGHER QPF ALONG THE CA COAST
WAS UNDER WEIGHTED.
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS IN AZ/UT AS THE UPPER LOW COMES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE COUPLETS CROSS
AZ/UT AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.25-0.5 INCHES. A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL/SREF MEAN WAS USED FOR THE MANUAL
FORECAST...DUE TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT.
ORAVEC/SULLIVAN/PETERSEN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 08/00Z
0.01 473715 469705 468699 465699 462701 458704 456709 452712
448716 446720 444722 442729 447734 450737 452739 451743
448746 445748 441746 439747 433751 432756 433763 436771
442788 441795 436801 432804 428810 422819 412830 403840
394849 388855 386863 386870 388879 393881 397883 401882
407880 412882 416886 415892 420898 428906 436911 439912
444912 447913 451912 453910 456907 459907 464911 464923
463929 463938 465947 467953 471956 473956 477951 479945
482936 485922 488916 489911 491906 491903 494893 496885
496882 495877 492858 491847 490837 489829 487817 481795
479786 478775 477769 476765 477760 476755 477746 475742
475737 475733 473721 473715
0.01 519172 520166 520160 517153 508142 501136 493126 490121
487114 487108 489103 489097 488079 485072 482071 478075
475082 472089 466092 464096 460100 450095 446093 442094
438097 436102 437107 439114 446121 455122 463130 456138
453142 448146 445149 441149 438155 439162 442167 442174
440179 438185 435189 429191 425194 420198 419203 420207
422214 413231 419243 422248 426250 430250 439248 450249
460190 463184 463178 464173 468169 472169 476171 498179
506181 514180 519172
0.01 492054 493047 492041 488032 484024 481020 472021 467025
464030 460039 462047 468054 471062 473064 476064 482063
489059 492054
0.01 455080 456076 454072 453069 452068 450064 447063 444063
442064 441064 439068 439070 438072 439074 439076 441078
444080 447082 450083 453083 455080
0.01 412184 412176 410167 410161 410156 412148 418132 419124
418115 416095 416084 417072 416063 411059 404060 401062
395067 389071 388074 389079 392083 396085 399085 404087
399098 395102 386105 380106 374109 371112 366115 360114
354111 349107 343105 339104 335105 335111 336117 334120
330121 320122 308127 303133 305139 313148 312155 311160
307165 305171 304175 303179 305182 307185 310190 312196
320204 340219 361234 366236 373238 387239 393237 394229
392224 388220 384215 389213 393215 397216 399215 402212
399206 395201 395198 398196 402195 408193 412184
0.01 271800 269798 266797 260797 254797 250798 247801 244805
242811 240816 241821 243821 247817 251812 253807 259805
265804 270803 271800
0.01 306014 306007 305003 302998 300995 296994 293996 290999
287003 288009 290012 293015 297018 300018 303017 306014
0.25 396177 398152 399143 400132 398129 395127 391126 386126
382127 376130 369133 365134 360134 345131 335131 328132
321134 316136 323145 327149 332153 336156 337158 337160
332161 325161 319163 317166 316170 317175 325184 331189
334195 341205 345210 349213 354215 362216 367214 372207
373202 376200 382197 385193 388188 393184 396177
0.25 358170 358167 356164 355163 353162 351162 348161 348162
347165 347168 347169 348172 349175 349179 351182 353180
355177 357173 358171 358170
0.50 378152 378144 375143 369141 364142 358141 353139 344135
336136 332140 332144 335148 340150 346154 352158 357158
365162 371162 374161 378152
0.50 348203 349198 348193 347186 346178 344169 342166 339165
330165 327165 325167 323170 324173 328179 331183 336189
339194 343202 344204 348203
1.00 344185 344182 344178 343175 342171 341169 338169 336169
335170 335173 335174 336177 337180 339184 342188 344185
1.50 343181 343180 341176 341177 342181 343182 343181
24HR QP VT 09/00Z
0.01 502666 498657 496652 487637 482636 478635 473632 469630
463630 456631 451636 448643 436664 439671 442675 450687
453696 453702 450707 445712 444718 441723 438725 432730
436735 429746 429753 431761 431767 429772 423777 416779
406781 393788 384795 381801 379806 378814 377822 375835
372849 372854 374862 375876 375889 374904 372920 371926
371935 370942 371950 373957 375959 379958 383954 386949
388944 389937 390923 397910 400901 406888 407881 411875
421870 425872 431871 439867 445864 451859 455860 457861
460865 462875 462880 461903 461909 461914 463919 462929
463939 466959 467968 469974 473980 477981 482982 483985
483997 482005 481011 479015 473026 467036 465043 465048
467053 473054 480051 488044 494042 501041 506039 511034
514027 515018 516012 515005 513994 511986 508978 501967
498959 497948 496938 497927 497921 498914 503897 505887
507878 509864 510856 510847 510841 508830 504809 501799
500794 500789 504776 509759 510751 510741 509733 509725
507715 506707 505684 503673 502666
0.01 485138 484132 481129 475124 472123 467121 461123 460127
454129 451133 451138 452151 450158 452163 456164 460160
462161 466165 469165 472163 473158 473154 471149 471141
474141 480140 483140 485138
0.01 428060 427057 424053 418047 410049 401050 397053 395057
391059 385059 381061 377062 372061 369058 367061 366066
367069 368072 367075 363081 356082 350083 347086 341082
334078 327079 322085 319088 316088 309086 300085 292088
284093 272102 270104 270109 274114 277118 280118 284120
285124 286129 289131 295134 300135 307139 312143 308145
303143 296141 288141 285142 284146 284155 288161 301173
308178 312183 316189 320197 324203 331209 345220 352225
359227 365229 370229 375228 378227 380223 381219 379214
370208 365203 363200 363196 367197 369200 372201 374205
377208 381210 385213 388213 391211 393205 393198 394191
400184 403182 407182 415185 419180 419173 417170 413164
411160 412156 415149 416143 419138 419134 414130 411125
417121 418118 418115 416111 410092 409088 410083 413078
415072 418068 421069 426064 428060
0.01 386101 387097 383097 379101 377101 375098 372091 366089
358088 355093 355100 360105 366109 370109 374108 380105
383105 386101 386101
0.01 276801 277798 276795 273793 270792 269791 267791 264791
261792 259793 256795 255798 254798 254801 255804 257805
260804 261805 262805 266806 269807 272806 274805 276802
276801
0.01 305007 305001 305994 304988 301987 298986 295986 292990
290994 289999 288005 288009 290012 293015 295016 297015
301014 303011 305007
0.25 390142 382127 380122 375121 365124 352113 345106 341103
338103 335105 324115 320115 316112 313102 307097 303095
297095 289099 285101 283103 284106 290105 295106 298107
305113 306120 309127 316131 320134 322137 327147 329151
330155 329159 324158 315156 310156 306157 306160 308164
314169 321175 328182 333187 340193 345195 348190 349183
352180 357179 360181 366189 369190 375191 377188 379181
384159 385153 386149 390142
0.25 331125 328124 328125 328128 331127 331125
0.50 378148 379143 379138 376133 373132 371136 367140 362138
356133 353127 353122 351119 340109 337113 336115 338123
337132 335139 336146 341150 343153 344157 344162 345165
361169 367172 371173 373173 375168 376163 377151 378148
0.50 341174 344168 342165 339164 333163 328163 322163 319164
322167 324171 327173 330176 334180 337181 339181 340177
341174
1.00 370161 371158 370154 369152 366151 363150 363149 360149
359149 357150 354152 353155 354157 356159 357160 359162
362163 365164 368163 370161
1.50 364157 363155 360155 359156 360157 362158 364157
24HR QP VT 10/00Z
0.01 514266 516263 516259 517252 516244 514238 510227 507222
506214 506210 503207 500206 492202 485201 480201 475203
467204 459204 466186 466179 464175 462172 460170 457171
454172 450170 447166 446164 443164 440165 436165 433164
434160 435160 438156 438153 437143 437135 440131 443133
449133 456127 458122 461115 464114 468114 471110 470102
470097 470094 467089 465094 461097 456091 455084 456077
453072 450068 445066 441065 436067 433070 432073 433076
433080 430084 427084 424087 421096 418099 415099 412093
412087 425051 430049 435050 444052 448054 453055 459055
465054 471050 477047 479044 485036 490032 493028 500020
502014 502007 504997 504988 503980 503972 503964 499954
493947 490942 487935 484926 480917 473907 468900 462894
455887 447883 440880 423875 407873 399875 389876 380879
374883 370885 365888 363890 358893 340904 334906 329908
324911 316916 312918 308919 301916 293915 288916 284918
279922 276929 274937 273947 274959 274969 276979 277984
279989 283994 286996 286000 284010 287021 289025 292028
304039 316048 322053 333054 341055 349058 352061 353065
353071 351073 338079 332076 327078 324078 321076 317078
309083 304084 296081 294090 294094 302093 307092 311094
316098 321103 317120 317129 318134 322137 323140 321142
315148 312151 309156 307167 309176 311180 313184 315191
318198 331209 329215 331220 334224 350231 369237 405254
424260 442260 447262 452261 458258 463255 468257 474257
479260 488274 491280 494282 497282 501281 506279 509276
514266
0.01 404095 404092 401094 400094 401096 403098 404095
0.01 374827 373820 369814 366815 364817 362823 362828 362832
362839 365844 369847 371843 372838 374831 374827
0.01 395192 394190 392187 391187 388186 387186 388187 391188
392191 393192 395192
0.01 384182 383181 380181 377180 375179 372177 370176 369175
367174 364172 361172 358172 356173 358174 361175 363176
366177 367179 369179 372180 374181 377182 380183 383182
384182
0.25 500233 500228 498224 498223 496220 493220 492221 493222
493226 495230 495231 497234 500233
0.25 485002 485991 482981 480973 477966 470955 463941 460936
455932 446927 436919 433916 427914 422913 416910 407905
403902 399896 394892 390891 376897 366903 348917 343921
337924 327929 316936 307942 300950 295959 289970 290977
292982 295986 299990 302994 303002 305009 308013 315022
318025 324028 328029 335030 347031 360032 372033 384036
392037 399035 409039 424040 431040 439039 451035 464030
472025 477017 482008 485002
0.25 460241 460238 459233 456228 451220 446217 440216 435216
428214 419214 411210 408210 404207 398202 387197 384194
381192 373186 368183 363183 357181 351181 347178 346174
344169 342167 337166 332166 328166 322167 321171 323175
329180 333183 336187 340195 344203 346208 349211 355216
357220 363223 369223 372222 372218 370214 364207 355197
355191 358191 362192 364196 372204 379210 389215 395220
400223 403227 402232 404239 406242 412244 423249 435252
444250 453247 460241
0.25 420174 421167 421159 417151 413149 408152 403155 398156
394154 393149 389148 382149 378148 378144 378138 379135
384126 386124 390120 397119 404121 412119 415118 415113
411111 410106 409102 407103 404107 400109 393111 386113
381112 374117 371119 368118 361114 354110 348105 342099
337099 332105 331109 332115 333125 336132 341138 347142
358145 363148 378156 382164 384172 387175 391176 401178
406180 411181 415180 418177 420174
0.25 406923 404919 401920 400921 399925 402927 405927 406923
0.25 393079 393076 392074 390076 390079 392081 393079
0.50 469999 470992 468984 464975 459968 453964 448963 443964
437969 426972 417974 409977 403984 401993 400004 401011
402017 406024 412030 420032 431032 441029 448026 458022
463017 467008 469999
0.50 414219 405214 399208 392202 383196 376191 368185 366186
365189 367193 374202 377205 383207 391212 398218 404219
407219 409222 411222 414219
0.50 378922 380916 377911 371909 365913 360917 353922 348927
341931 334935 325938 321943 313954 311958 312962 313969
312977 315985 316988 315993 313999 315006 319012 324016
328018 332018 340018 345015 350014 352018 354021 357023
362021 364017 365013 381992 384994 380989 373985 368982
364973 364970 361966 355960 356956 359952 363946 366940
371933 374931 376927 378922
0.50 376133 377130 378126 377123 374126 373126 372129 370133
373135 376133 376133
0.50 371136 370134 367136 370138 371136
0.50 359131 361128 360125 359121 356117 352113 349111 346108
343106 340106 337109 337116 337120 338126 340130 344133
347135 353135 356134 359131
0.50 344182 344178 343177 341175 339177 340180 341181 342184
344182
1.00 451994 447992 444995 439996 433997 428001 426005 428010
434012 437013 443011 445007 447002 450998 451994
1.00 347123 347120 345118 343120 344123 345125 347123
$$